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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #5,741
  • Feb 12, 2007 7:14am Feb 12, 2007 7:14am
http://fxtrade.oanda.com/resources/t...ve_GBP_USD.png

  1. Top-right quadrant: Long positions that were entered into at a price above the current price
    (These positions have a negative unrealized P/L).
  2. Bottom-right quadrant: Short positions that were entered into at a price above the current price
    (These positions have a positive unrealized P/L).
  3. Bottom-left quadrant: Short positions that were entered into at a price below the current price
    (These positions have a negative unrealized P/L).
  4. Top-left quadrant: Long positions that were entered into at a price below the current price
    (These positions have a positive unrealized P/L).

Don't know how reliable that information is. But may help us here.

  • #5,742
  • Feb 12, 2007 7:20am Feb 12, 2007 7:20am
Quoting cesarnc
http://fxtrade.oanda.com/resources/t...ve_GBP_USD.png

  1. Top-right quadrant: Long positions that were entered into at a price above the current price
    (These positions have a negative unrealized P/L).
  2. Bottom-right quadrant: Short positions that were entered into at a price above the current price
    (These positions have a positive unrealized P/L).
  3. Bottom-left quadrant: Short positions that were entered into at a price below the current price
    (These positions have a negative unrealized P/L).
  4. Top-left quadrant: Long positions that were entered into at a price below the current price
    (These positions have a positive unrealized P/L).

Don't know how reliable that information is. But may help us here.

Great thanks!! Now you show me this right after I enter a long position @ 9470
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #5,743
  • Feb 12, 2007 7:40am Feb 12, 2007 7:40am
hi there

R: 1.9500 / 1.9550
S: 1.9420 / 1.9380 / 1.9350
The Cable initially rallied during the day to a high of 1.9569 and then had a sharp fall to a low of 1.9438. With that it looks like that it has broken below the range of 1.9480 – 1.9750, as a close below 1.9480 is very likely today. Now the pair could be headed towards 1.9285 during the week, which comes on the trendline on the weekly joining the lows of 1.7254 (Apr-06) and 1.8522 (Oct-06).
For today the Support currently is at 1.9420, the statistically projected Max Low for the day. If that is broken then there could be a fall towards 1.9380 or 1.9350. On the upside the Resistances are coming in at 1.9500 and then at 1.9550. A sell on a rally towards 1.9550 is again recommended.


Good luck
  • #5,744
  • Feb 12, 2007 7:48am Feb 12, 2007 7:48am
perhaps it will go down to 9200 level, but therewill be another move up prior and I believe we will have a close in 9500's today. price remaining within important level on longside.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #5,745
  • Feb 12, 2007 8:12am Feb 12, 2007 8:12am
Quoting Leugimp
Great thanks!! Now you show me this right after I enter a long position @ 9470


Hey, man, you're the one who came with this trend line here:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=5741

Cable is going down in flames. I also see a possible up move prior to the ultimate sink to 9200.

But it will strongly depend on how deep we are going today! According to the trendline we could go up to 95XX for tomorrow. But if the price breaks this 9450 and end the day at low 9400s / high 9300, forget about 95XX for tomorrow...

Looks like this is a mix of carry trade with the rate no-hike. This may be an explosive mixture downwards, don't you think? US doing nothing about USD yet. Only tradying carries and trying to drag everything with it.

Heavy stop hunting (of long positions above 9450) is likely to take us to flert with the Devil in his desk.

That's what I'm on right now.
  • #5,746
  • Feb 12, 2007 8:15am Feb 12, 2007 8:15am
[quote=Fighter;215085]hi there

R: 1.9500 / 1.9550
S: 1.9420 / 1.9380 / 1.9350
The Cable initially rallied during the day to a high of 1.9569 and then had a sharp fall to a low of 1.9438. With that it looks like that it has broken below the range of 1.9480 – 1.9750, as a close below 1.9480 is very likely today. Now the pair could be headed towards 1.9285 during the week, which comes on the trendline on the weekly joining the lows of 1.7254 (Apr-06) and 1.8522 (Oct-06).
For today the Support currently is at 1.9420, the statistically projected Max Low for the day. If that is broken then there could be a fall towards 1.9380 or 1.9350. On the upside the Resistances are coming in at 1.9500 and then at 1.9550. A sell on a rally towards 1.9550 is again recommended.



I am watching the hourly chart and have a 78.6 line at 9442 being the retrace of the run up to 23/1 . As we all know, the cable seems to like 78.6 for some reason and we have bounced off that area twice already today on the 10.00 and 13.00 gmt candles. There is clearly strong resistance in place and we couol go either way. I am setting up a short at 9430 and a long at 9480 to cover myself.
  • #5,747
  • Feb 12, 2007 8:34am Feb 12, 2007 8:34am
Given the bland to poor recent GBP figures and the better US figures of late, I would have expected more activity from US opening over last couple of days.

Any ideas?
  • #5,748
  • Feb 12, 2007 9:11am Feb 12, 2007 9:11am
Quoting goonergonebad
Given the bland to poor recent GBP figures and the better US figures of late, I would have expected more activity from US opening over last couple of days.

Any ideas?
I agree. Just based purely on fundamentals/economic reports coming out, I'm looking at a strong week for the U.S. economy and for the U.S. dollar. Plus, we have Bernanke testifying before Congress and he's expected to paint a rosey picture of the U.S. economy and he's probably going to even hint at a mid-year rate hike to combat inflation and keep prices down.

I don't see any reason why the GBP/USD won't go to the 1.92's.
  • #5,749
  • Feb 12, 2007 9:27am Feb 12, 2007 9:27am
quote=Breton Wood;215176]I agree. Just based purely on fundamentals/economic reports coming out, I'm looking at a strong week for the U.S. economy and for the U.S. dollar. Plus, we have Bernanke testifying before Congress and he's expected to paint a rosey picture of the U.S. economy and he's probably going to even hint at a mid-year rate hike to combat inflation and keep prices down.

I don't see any reason why the GBP/USD won't go to the 1.92's.[/quote]

Also first time in 3+ months that daily trend line broken emphatically.
Attached Image
  • #5,750
  • Feb 12, 2007 9:35am Feb 12, 2007 9:35am
Quoting goonergonebad
Given the bland to poor recent GBP figures and the better US figures of late, I would have expected more activity from US opening over last couple of days.

Any ideas?
This is the USD-index

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/history....&w=1&a=50&v=d1

It is being rangebounds for a whole month after the good performance in the first week of the year.

Dollar was strongly disappointing in several USD-positive news, no only with Cable (that was being rocketed by the rate-hike) but across the board.

I can't tell why US market is acting this way. Don't have knowledge and experience enough to do that.

But, since what is important to us is prices moving, no matter the direction, keeping a close look at USD-index and its support and resistance may help us find the direction for the pairs we trade. In the absense of US in the market, start trading the European session, that has been the ruler here for some time.
  • #5,751
  • Feb 12, 2007 9:42am Feb 12, 2007 9:42am
Quoting goonergonebad
Also first time in 3+ months that daily trend line broken emphatically.
I was trading this trend line, when offering support. Now we have to keep in mind the figure 9556, that was the high of the 4hr pin bar (8:00 GMT) today. It matches with 4hr 250EMA. May be a key resistance area now. If broken, open the window for new highs, in case Cable fails to reach lower low (9200). We must wait for today's and tomorrow action and close to figure out where a new trend line (up or down) lies now.

For now, we are only seeing a double bottom in this 9460 area. If persists, that may get us clueless for direction tomorrow.
  • #5,752
  • Feb 12, 2007 9:46am Feb 12, 2007 9:46am
Quoting cesarnc
This is the USD-index

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/history....&w=1&a=50&v=d1

It is being rangebounds for a whole month after the good performance in the first week of the year.

Dollar was strongly disappointing in several USD-positive news, no only with Cable (that was being rocketed by the rate-hike) but across the board.

I can't tell why US market is acting this way. Don't have knowledge and experience enough to do that.

But, since what is important to us is prices moving, no matter the direction, keeping a close look at USD-index and its support and resistance may help us find the direction for the pairs we trade. In the absense of US in the market, start trading the European session, that has been the ruler here for some time.

Excuse my ignorance - but, being new to trading, what is the USD Index?
  • #5,753
  • Feb 12, 2007 9:47am Feb 12, 2007 9:47am
Quoting cesarnc
This is the USD-index

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/history....&w=1&a=50&v=d1

It is being rangebounds for a whole month after the good performance in the first week of the year.

Dollar was strongly disappointing in several USD-positive news, no only with Cable (that was being rocketed by the rate-hike) but across the board.

I can't tell why US market is acting this way. Don't have knowledge and experience enough to do that.

But, since what is important to us is prices moving, no matter the direction, keeping a close look at USD-index and its support and resistance may help us find the direction for the pairs we trade. In the absense of US in the market, start trading the European session, that has been the ruler here for some time.
The USD index movement is nearly same as EUR/USD movement, since Euro is the dominating world currency after USD. Look at USD index and EUR/USD charts, they're almost mirroring each other (USD index moves in opposite direction of EUR/USD). Just my opinion.

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/javachart/US/37
Tra-X
  • #5,754
  • Feb 12, 2007 9:50am Feb 12, 2007 9:50am
Quoting Traex
The USD index movement is nearly same as EUR/USD movement, since Euro is the dominating world currency after USD. Look at USD index and EUR/USD charts, they're almost mirroring each other (USD index moves in opposite direction of EUR/USD). Just my opinion.

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/javachart/US/37
Thanks Traex..
  • #5,755
  • Feb 12, 2007 9:50am Feb 12, 2007 9:50am
evryday oil is looking more nice to go short,...maybe 1 more bounce up, then we go and break each & evrysingle soory suport till its 50 again...
its just money
  • #5,756
  • Feb 12, 2007 9:58am Feb 12, 2007 9:58am
Quoting Traex
The USD index movement is nearly same as EUR/USD movement, since Euro is the dominating world currency after USD. Look at USD index and EUR/USD charts, they're almost mirroring each other (USD index moves in opposite direction of EUR/USD). Just my opinion.

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/javachart/US/37
EUR is a good lead to us here. Cable lost track of USD trading after the rate hike and also with the carry trades. Euro, for being much less volatile is keeping a good pattern, much closer to USD.

EURO may act as a good "filter" for us. We see what it is doing but trade Cable's volatility instead
  • #5,757
  • Feb 12, 2007 10:03am Feb 12, 2007 10:03am
Quoting goonergonebad
Excuse my ignorance - but, being new to trading, what is the USD Index?
Source: Investopedia

US Dollar Index - USDX

A measure of the value of the U.S. dollar relative to majority of its most significant trading partners. This index is similar to other trade-weighted indexes, which also use the exchange rates from the same major currencies.

Currently, this index is calculated by factoring in the exchange rates of six major world currencies: the euro, Japanese yen, Canadian dollar, British pound, Swedish krona and Swiss franc. This index started in 1973 with a base of 100 and is relative to this base. This means that a value of 120 would suggest that the U.S. dollar experienced a 20% increase in value over the time period.

It is possible to incorporate futures or options strategies on the USDX. These financial products currently trade on the New York Board Of Trade.
  • #5,758
  • Feb 12, 2007 10:07am Feb 12, 2007 10:07am
Quoting cesarnc
EUR is a good lead to us here. Cable lost track of USD trading after the rate hike and also with the carry trades. Euro, for being much less volatile is keeping a good pattern, much closer to USD.

EURO may act as a good "filter" for us. We see what it is doing but trade Cable's volatility instead
When I first started forex trading 3\4 months ago I concentrated on cable and EUR$ - At the time they were mirroring each other but CABLE had greater movements.

Since rate hike Eur$ lagged significantly behind. Now, seems to be back to original trend feel.

With regard to US inactivity, I can only assume that there is some bad US news lying in wait that only privileged major players (institutions) are privy to. Otherwise, cable should now be taking a hammering.
  • #5,759
  • Feb 12, 2007 10:16am Feb 12, 2007 10:16am
Damn stop hunting... I hate when they do that.... I used to jump in this kind of move just to find myself naked when they pull back, taking my pants with them....
  • #5,760
  • Feb 12, 2007 10:23am Feb 12, 2007 10:23am
Quoting cesarnc
Source: Investopedia

US Dollar Index - USDX

A measure of the value of the U.S. dollar relative to majority of its most significant trading partners. This index is similar to other trade-weighted indexes, which also use the exchange rates from the same major currencies.

Currently, this index is calculated by factoring in the exchange rates of six major world currencies: the euro, Japanese yen, Canadian dollar, British pound, Swedish krona and Swiss franc. This index started in 1973 with a base of 100 and is relative to this base. This means that a value of 120 would suggest that the U.S. dollar experienced a 20% increase in value over the time period.

It is possible to incorporate futures or options strategies on the USDX. These financial products currently trade on the New York Board Of Trade.
Thanks Cesarnc
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