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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #79,801
  • Aug 5, 2008 1:55am Aug 5, 2008 1:55am
Quoting vivekn1
Do you guys expect the fed to hike rates?
Not a chance in hell.
Que
  • #79,802
  • Aug 5, 2008 1:56am Aug 5, 2008 1:56am
Quoting warta
damn this thread is really dead
where r u guys wake up
and we still have 31 guest and non of them wana register and share us his view
LOL - after that comment I thought I'd pop in and share a view - it would be rude not to.

I've been watching cable, euro and swissy and IMO cable has been loosing momentum since its push down yesterday......so is this a "sell the rumour, buy the news" situation?

IMO that's a possibility, so I took a Buy in the small spike down in the 4:30 news candle, which only managed to go 10 pips under the low at 4:20 - that low hit my mid pivot level of 9530 to the pip....now I'm watching the price action for a confirmation of a decent bounce - the S1 level at 9563 will show the way. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif
  • #79,803
  • Aug 5, 2008 1:58am Aug 5, 2008 1:58am
Quoting warta
seem i will trade like u today heheheh
yes bro, please keep it please please

anyway, its dangerous today because of whats happening but im sticking to the plan whatever the results are
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #79,804
  • Aug 5, 2008 2:00am Aug 5, 2008 2:00am
Quoting Jono
LOL - after that comment I thought I'd pop in and share a view - it would be rude not to.

I've been watching cable, euro and swissy and IMO cable has been loosing momentum since its push down yesterday......so is this a "sell the rumour, buy the news" situation?

IMO that's a possibility, so I took a Buy in the small spike down in the 4:30 news candle, which only managed to go 10 pips under the low at 4:20 - that low hit my mid pivot level of 9530 to the pip....now I'm watching the price action for a confirmation of a decent bounce - the S1 level at 9563 will show the way. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif
nice to see u between ur friend and welcome back to the thread
well i think we will go back to zerro waiting the us news aswell , i cant see any big move bofore the U.S news
well its good for stoch scalping with no direction , 10 pips from here 10 from there not so bad good luck in ur trade and wish u load of green
  • #79,805
  • Aug 5, 2008 2:02am Aug 5, 2008 2:02am
Quoting micho
yes bro, please keep it please please

anyway, its dangerous today because of whats happening but im sticking to the plan whatever the results are

lol catch u in the right time then am not trading now as am watching the news at least till the U.S news pop out
  • #79,806
  • Aug 5, 2008 2:06am Aug 5, 2008 2:06am
go east go west .. stay outa market is the best
  • #79,807
  • Aug 5, 2008 2:07am Aug 5, 2008 2:07am
Quoting warta
nice to see u between ur friend and welcome back to the thread
well i think we will go back to zerro waiting the us news aswell , i cant see any big move bofore the U.S news
well its good for stoch scalping with no direction , 10 pips from here 10 from there not so bad good luck in ur trade and wish u load of green
Thanks - I've already taken some profit as price stalled a the S1 level. Now I've got a free trade with the remainder with my stop just under the 550 level - time for a coffe break....
  • #79,808
  • Aug 5, 2008 2:08am Aug 5, 2008 2:08am
Quoting Jono
Thanks - I've already taken some profit as price stalled a the S1 level. Now I've got a free trade with the remainder with my stop just under the 550 level - time for a coffe break....

cheers
  • #79,809
  • Aug 5, 2008 2:10am Aug 5, 2008 2:10am
30 min candle got above 5sma, this may be the small confirmation for further up way
  • #79,810
  • Aug 5, 2008 2:12am Aug 5, 2008 2:12am
goodluck guys .im of to work...good luck with the trades
  • #79,811
  • Aug 5, 2008 2:12am Aug 5, 2008 2:12am
gj and gc are just doin' fine with longs
  • #79,812
  • Aug 5, 2008 2:17am Aug 5, 2008 2:17am
Quoting warta
hey guys sup good morning all
carrera hows u and hows ur harmonic
infinity hows u dear brother hope u r well
Bless up Warta...

I am doing great... I hope all is well with you....

Talk to you later.....
Patience + Discipline - Greed = Success
  • #79,813
  • Aug 5, 2008 2:28am Aug 5, 2008 2:28am
If This Thing Broke 1.9545 We Will Go To 1.9385
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #79,814
  • Aug 5, 2008 2:29am Aug 5, 2008 2:29am
If It Breaks 1.9385, We Go All The Way To Zero 0.0000
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #79,815
  • Aug 5, 2008 2:31am Aug 5, 2008 2:31am
If We Broke Zero 0.0000 Then Pound Is In Real Big Shit
Attached Image
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #79,816
  • Aug 5, 2008 2:36am Aug 5, 2008 2:36am
Moe to me
show details 11:27 AM (11 minutes ago) Reply

good mourning, how's everything? tell the guys i said
hi.
  • #79,817
  • Aug 5, 2008 2:37am Aug 5, 2008 2:37am
Quoting micho
If We Broke Zero 0.0000 Then Pound Is In Real Big Shit
  • #79,818
  • Aug 5, 2008 2:38am Aug 5, 2008 2:38am
Heres my 4 hr view.I'm going to reassess in my dinner break.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4 hour today.gif Size: 47 KB
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #79,819
  • Aug 5, 2008 2:40am Aug 5, 2008 2:40am
5 August 2008 Tuesday 6:59

Feds to hold rate steady as they assess their NOW actions in the eyes of the FUTURE...



The judgment day for the U.S economy is finally upon us as the data today is to be discarded until we reach the zero barrier and the Feds take their call on rates. It's taken for granted that the feds are to leave rates steady at 2.0% yet the focus is to be on the accompanying statement, shall it reveal any new revelation to markets on weather the Feds are to clearly tilting to a hawkish stance, especially after yesterday's data showed stoking pressures down the pipeline. With the global economy threatened to fall into recession, with sluggish growth, fragile financial markets and rising inflation the Feds are surely on the spot in hope to salvage not just U.S growth but global growth!

Usually the U.S economy's fallout takes the globe down with it at a blink of an eye, yet now the situation is all different, at the peak of the crisis in the fourth quarter of last year the economy actually contracted dragging through into this year sluggishly and hammered by the ongoing real estate slump and tight liquidity yet still commodities surged inflation continued to rise and some economies resembled resilience against all odds.

Yet now the lagging effect hits, after the Feds reached rates down to 2.0% from 5.25% and the stand point is now yet in a futuristic eye. Are we to look back at those days in time and blame low rates for the U.S fallout of excessive tightening and the decision is harder than any Federal Reserve Chairman faced before!

Bernanke is caught between a rock and a hard place. The economy is surely still weak and the ongoing developments are merely induced with the power of a depreciating dollar that is propping exports and the rebates effect that cushioned the economy with spending, yet those are merely anesthetics and surely did not eradicate the growing tumor in the hear of the economy!

The real estate's collapse and the financial market's turmoil are the worst to hit the economy since the Great Depression and noting the extent of sophistication the economy and financial markets evolved into since then basically we are looking at a greater scale of damage here!

Hawkish comments are being surely heard among FOMC members yet still the majority are favoring to provide the economy with the longest period of stability, as the essence of the economic data stream are yet to show the capability of the economy to devour another price shock.

The labor market is still shrinking, spending started to cool as the rebates effect abide, markets are still starving for cash as the Feds extended their lending facilities into January to assure funding for the market, while at the same time the budget deficit is swelling out of control and the lowest rate of circulated bonds since 1960s prove the economy is still piling dues to be paid!

So how does inflation now justify a rate hike against all the growing downside pressures? The Feds expected that their immaculate timing of the rebates along side monetary easing and liquidity pumped is to secure the economy to rise once more in the latter half of the year, yet they surely miscalculated that by undermining a few factors.

Their central projections failed and Bernanke himself testified saying that "significant" risks to growth remain and to me I see the feds fell short on two factors, one is they actually underestimated the amount of spread damage from the subprime collapse and the amount of record losses and ailing balance sheets, two they didn’t expect to feed through an already developing commodities bubble which backfired instead of paying them well with exports as the dollar erodes!

Those are the risks the feds are facing, another price shock to an economy that surely lacks immunity and further damaging to household finances which is not doing their part in supporting growth which accounts for nearly 70% of the GDP.

The economy expanded in the second quarter with 1.9% below expectations true, yet if you think that this rate is capable to handle a simple rate hike imagine growth in the third and fourth quarter, as the housing market continues to weaken adding to financial losses, household finances worsen further and the labor market weakens, further businesses file for chapter 11, and exports slow as global demand too takes a hit?!

The odds are tight for the feds and steady rates is the safest option at the time, and I say their statement is not to be as hawkish as markets expect for one reason, commodities are starting to provide signs of responding to slowing demand and that will be the Feds silver lining to prolong the rate hike as much as possible.

Officials have taken extra measures above maneuvering monetary policy to assure saving markets; extending facility loans as we said, passing the rescue bill to stop further contagion shall the two major GSE's collapse, and putting limits on "naked-shorts" will eventually work in tandem with the fiscal and monetary tools to spill positive influence over the outlook yet all the fed needs to do is buy time and that is what I think they will do.

While in a personal retrospective I also bet on the American government to take action as well, by delaying any measures to start a new crisis in the Middle East on Iran to ensure that oil prices do not spike now as such a decision could be the last straw that sends all efforts to waste and surely closes the big chapter on the LARGEST ECONOMY IN THE WORLD!

A though decision it is as we said not just for the tight angle picture we see yet in the Feds judgment of now in the eye of the future, as Bernanke surely does not want to be blamed for the collapse of the U.S economy off the world's economic map echoing the collapse of the Soviet Union as any default now might be the end to the American economy as we know it and again that is a personal retrospective…
  • #79,820
  • Aug 5, 2008 2:40am Aug 5, 2008 2:40am
Quoting micho
If We Broke Zero 0.0000 Then Pound Is In Real Big Shit
LOL Holy SH!T
Don't Get Bitter, Get Better
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