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  • #17,321
  • Aug 1, 2008 8:20am Aug 1, 2008 8:20am
I think e/u is going up 50pips from here. Possibly 80pips.
  • #17,322
  • Aug 1, 2008 8:28am Aug 1, 2008 8:28am
bored... what time is where you are?

what time frames do you trade and when do you sleep? how about work?

How many hours a day do you trade?

its 1:23am NZ time. I usually trade from 7pm too 12pm NZ time.
5 hrs a day... wife hate it.

If I talk about the markets to the wife her eyes glaze over and roll back in her head.... she is soo interested. not
  • #17,323
  • Aug 1, 2008 8:40am Aug 1, 2008 8:40am
I have got to a trap at 1.5686

I wait when the price will come nearer to be closed with the minimum loss
  • #17,324
  • Aug 1, 2008 8:44am Aug 1, 2008 8:44am
We have a butterfly on the daily at the .707 level, and we have a 5 wave move down, so I am expecting a reversal.

Please see charts
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd 1st aug 2008.gif Size: 39 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd 1st aug count 2008.gif Size: 31 KB
  • #17,325
  • Aug 1, 2008 8:45am Aug 1, 2008 8:45am
All write about the victories. But I think that each trader has such cases
  • #17,326
  • Aug 1, 2008 8:48am Aug 1, 2008 8:48am
Quoting Andrey
I have got to a trap at 1.5686

I wait when the price will come nearer to be closed with the minimum loss
might not have to wait to long...
  • #17,327
  • Aug 1, 2008 8:52am Aug 1, 2008 8:52am
Quoting Andrey
I have got to a trap at 1.5686

I wait when the price will come nearer to be closed with the minimum loss
I have a few small longs near 56 and one tiny still from 658. I see no reason to close any of them though, my sl is at 495. This thing will either go up or down and even if it's down I'll cover up for the loss in less than 100 pips fall, which would in such case probably be at least 200 till about 53. Plus I scalped a bit today on GU and EU. Patience man.

Dukeman,
London session starts at 10am for me and NY at 3pm. End of NY is ussualy boring anyway.. So I've got it pretty comfortable I think, for EU aspecially.
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #17,328
  • Aug 1, 2008 8:53am Aug 1, 2008 8:53am
Quoting smalldog2
We have a butterfly on the daily at the .707 level, and we have a 5 wave move down, so I am expecting a reversal.

Please see charts
Strange, but my program has drawn the bull butterfly only on H4
  • #17,329
  • Aug 1, 2008 8:54am Aug 1, 2008 8:54am
In all honesty...even if ISM is negative for USD, I wouldn't expect to much of a full reversal today with interest rates & statements from FOMC & ECB coming out next Tuesday & Thursday...

Just my 2 Cents...
  • #17,330
  • Aug 1, 2008 8:57am Aug 1, 2008 8:57am
Quoting Jurrasic
I have a few small longs near 56 and one tiny still from 658. I see no reason to close any of them though, my sl is at 495. This thing will either go up or down and even if it's down I'll cover up for the loss in less than 100 pips fall, which would in such case probably be at least 200 till about 53. Plus I scalped a bit today on GU and EU. Patience man.

Dukeman,
London session starts at 10am for me and NY at 3pm. End of NY is ussualy boring anyway.. So I've got it pretty comfortable I think, for EU aspecially.
Thanks for advice!
  • #17,331
  • Aug 1, 2008 8:58am Aug 1, 2008 8:58am
Jurrasic I find your comments worth listeing too.

so please keep them coming
  • #17,332
  • Aug 1, 2008 9:06am Aug 1, 2008 9:06am
Just had a look at the USDCHF, this trades in the opposite way to the eurusd and as you can see that the .786 level has not had a close above it yet.

Closes, especially on the daily are important, and should this level hold today, I would expect the USD to fall, it is not 100% sure nothing is, but if you are a contra trader then its a low risk entry.

Please see attached chart

Smalldog2
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf 1st aug 2008.gif Size: 38 KB
  • #17,333
  • Aug 1, 2008 9:09am Aug 1, 2008 9:09am
I really fail to understand today's market. Really, really .... Good thing that I didn't trade today
  • #17,334
  • Aug 1, 2008 9:22am Aug 1, 2008 9:22am
THEN...

.5300.
  • #17,335
  • Aug 1, 2008 9:23am Aug 1, 2008 9:23am
How magical is the .5580 line I mentioned in previous posts.
  • #17,336
  • Aug 1, 2008 9:24am Aug 1, 2008 9:24am
Slightly disappointing market reaction....Oil enjoying a temp boost..which I don't think will sustain long...small profit on my initial hedged position before NFP news...don't see a real break out..back to 1.555 soon IMO

Just my 2 Cents...
  • #17,337
  • Aug 1, 2008 9:29am Aug 1, 2008 9:29am
Quoting acumen
THEN...

.5300.
Hmm... your chances are getting more and more slim now, as I see it.
I'd love to see the market close above 620 though, that could really be a bye bye kiss to the dollar.
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #17,338
  • Aug 1, 2008 9:45am Aug 1, 2008 9:45am
The price has again returned to the morning channel.
And what has changed (certainly except profits and losses)?
  • #17,339
  • Aug 1, 2008 9:51am Aug 1, 2008 9:51am
Quoting Andrey
The price has again returned to the morning channel.
And what has changed (certainly except profits and losses)?
Like I said.. terpenie (patience).
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #17,340
  • Aug 1, 2008 9:53am Aug 1, 2008 9:53am
Quoting Jurrasic
Hmm... your chances are getting more and more slim now, as I see it.
I'd love to see the market close above 620 though, that could really be a bye bye kiss to the dollar.


ISM above 50 shows expansion.

NFP - Lot's of losses but no as bad as predicted.

UK's Manufacturing Index hits 10 year low.

"Grim, bleak, dour, dismal, gloomy, miserable, dreary, depressing, wretched. The English language is certainly not short of adjectives that might be applied to the July manufacturing PMI," said Simon Hayes of Barclays. "Far from stabilising around the level registered in June (45.9, following a near 6-point decline on the month), the PMI fell further to 44.3, the lowest for nearly 10 years."

The US just got up from a standing 8 count and the UK is about to be given one.

Yes - we are heavily oversold so a suckers bounce would be great to sell into.
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