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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #79,401
  • Aug 1, 2008 7:56am Aug 1, 2008 7:56am
Quoting Pennypacker
are you serious? a GU at 2.0 will kill the UK economy, it has been, there is no way the BoE will allow it.
thats what cable does. its within the range.

Quoting Infinity
9712 should be a tough area.....if that area is taken out then 9650 is possible but these numbers are far from convincing for me.. I think 2.0000 next week..
yep it will return to around there. most likely. Hopefully It hits 650ish today so I can buy this sucker.
USD Est Non Mortuus
  • #79,402
  • Aug 1, 2008 7:56am Aug 1, 2008 7:56am
Quoting Infinity
9712 should be a tough area.....if that area is taken out then 9650 is possible but these numbers are far from convincing for me.. I think 2.0000 next week..
  • #79,403
  • Aug 1, 2008 7:59am Aug 1, 2008 7:59am
Quoting DJ4x
Hi Ameritrini,
Have you changed your overall bias down or do you think that it will still go up to 2.01 or higher?
I think it will go down to the 9600 level then up we go, not today ofcourse.

  • #79,404
  • Aug 1, 2008 7:59am Aug 1, 2008 7:59am
Quoting DJ4x
I am tempted to add a long from here!!? Down action not as strong as I thought it will be? PA slow but then it is Friday afternoon
  • #79,405
  • Aug 1, 2008 8:02am Aug 1, 2008 8:02am
In my opinion news is not as good for dollar so I expect news at 10 got much more important and will tell us a direction. I think up is possible. Down move is not as strong as I predicted.
  • #79,406
  • Aug 1, 2008 8:02am Aug 1, 2008 8:02am
Quoting Pennypacker
are you serious? a GU at 2.0 will kill the UK economy, it has been, there is no way the BoE will allow it.
umm where did you get your PhD in economics again? how you know what the central bankers want?

  • #79,407
  • Aug 1, 2008 8:07am Aug 1, 2008 8:07am
Quoting AmeriTrini
umm where did you get your PhD in economics again? how you know what the central bankers want?

Have you read any of the reports that have come out of the UK? They all point to the fact a 2.0 GU is killing their economy. Very simply concept really.

US is their largest trade partner, Pound has gotten very expensive relative to Dollar, so US trades elsewhere or not at all, UK economy goes into the toliet.
  • #79,408
  • Aug 1, 2008 8:09am Aug 1, 2008 8:09am
Quoting Infinity
yes...
For what it's worth, I agree with you on this Infinity, in that I think it will go higher. I am not sure whether 2.00 will be reached next week though, as there will be heavy selling at 1.9920 area and again at 1.9960 (where I will start building short positions).

I remain bearish on cable over the longer term, but still think the dollar has gained too much in recent sessions, particularly when the economic data from the US has not been great to say the least.

The Bank of England won't change their interest-rate policy because cable is above 2.00, nor will they intervene and sell the pair in the market. However, I think cable will not last for long above 2.00 and will be setting itself up for another fall, as and when poor UK economic data is released.
  • #79,409
  • Aug 1, 2008 8:16am Aug 1, 2008 8:16am
enough for this week +284
have a great weekend
  • #79,410
  • Aug 1, 2008 8:16am Aug 1, 2008 8:16am
Quoting Pennypacker
Have you read any of the reports that have come out of the UK? They all point to the fact a 2.0 GU is killing their economy. Very simply concept really.

US is their largest trade partner, Pound has gotten very expensive relative to Dollar, so US trades elsewhere or not at all, UK economy goes into the toliet.
No, the Eurozone is UK's biggest trading partner.

The problems in the UK economy are not cheifly caused by the high GBP/USD rate, rather they are more connected with tighter credit conditions, deteriorating property market, rising inflation, crumbling business and consumer confidence. Yes, a strong dollar would help the competitiveness of UK exporters, but this is not a panacea for the ills of a flagging economy.
  • #79,411
  • Aug 1, 2008 8:22am Aug 1, 2008 8:22am
Well.... I actually bought at 9730 and will add at 9660 if it gets there... Will see how that goes next week...

I hope it gets to 9650 area where Luckylurker's massive buy orders will take it over 2.000 in a 5 min candle.....
Patience + Discipline - Greed = Success
  • #79,412
  • Aug 1, 2008 8:23am Aug 1, 2008 8:23am
Quoting Infinity
...I hope it gets to 9650 area where Luckylurker's massive buy orders will take it over 2.000 in a 5 min candle.....
I'll be backing Lucky's buy orders at that price as well!
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #79,413
  • Aug 1, 2008 8:24am Aug 1, 2008 8:24am
Quoting gammase1
No, the Eurozone is UK's biggest trading partner.

The problems in the UK economy are not cheifly caused by the high GBP/USD rate, rather they are more connected with tighter credit conditions, deteriorating property market, rising inflation, crumbling business and consumer confidence. Yes, a strong dollar would help the competitiveness of UK exporters, but this is not a panacea for the ills of a flagging economy.
Don't mean to hold a lecture here - but in turn who do you think is the "EuroZone's" largest trade partner?!?!?

I strongly disagree with you - a strong dollar is EXCELLENT for exporting nations such as the Eurozone and the UK.

What do you think causes crumbling business and consumer confidence and a weak housing market?

If the US is not buying - then overseas jobs are lost, homes are foreclosed, property values decline, confidence is lost....all the things we have seen happen to the UK economy since the dollar's decline.

This is a very simple concept guys. When the larger importer's currency is devalued, they buy less, which then hurts the exporter. Econ 101.
  • #79,414
  • Aug 1, 2008 8:25am Aug 1, 2008 8:25am
Quoting eohater
I'll be backing Lucky's buy orders at that price as well!
Patience + Discipline - Greed = Success
  • #79,415
  • Aug 1, 2008 8:28am Aug 1, 2008 8:28am
Quoting gammase1
No, the Eurozone is UK's biggest trading partner.

The problems in the UK economy are not cheifly caused by the high GBP/USD rate, rather they are more connected with tighter credit conditions, deteriorating property market, rising inflation, crumbling business and consumer confidence. Yes, a strong dollar would help the competitiveness of UK exporters, but this is not a panacea for the ills of a flagging economy.
agreed, the trade deficit is nowhere near the UKs leading economic headache, lack of comsumer credit and falling house-prices are, along with major distrust (rightly so) in Brown's government (remember who sold a large % of UK's gold reserves c$200/ounce?).
TRADE FOR SWAP
  • #79,416
  • Aug 1, 2008 8:30am Aug 1, 2008 8:30am
Quoting Infinity
Well.... I actually bought at 9730 and will add at 9660 if it gets there... Will see how that goes next week...

I hope it gets to 9650 area where Luckylurker's massive buy orders will take it over 2.000 in a 5 min candle.....
USD Est Non Mortuus
  • #79,417
  • Aug 1, 2008 8:31am Aug 1, 2008 8:31am
Quoting Pennypacker
Don't mean to hold a lecture here - but in turn who do you think is the "EuroZone's" largest trade partner?!?!?

I strongly disagree with you - a strong dollar is EXCELLENT for exporting nations such as the Eurozone and the UK.

What do you think causes crumbling business and consumer confidence and a weak housing market?

If the US is not buying - then overseas jobs are lost, homes are foreclosed, property values decline, confidence is lost....all the things we have seen happen to the UK economy since the dollar's decline.

This is a very simple concept guys. When the larger importer's currency is devalued, they buy less, which then hurts the exporter. Econ 101.
Simple but true although there are other fundamental factors that affect the economy of a country.
  • #79,418
  • Aug 1, 2008 8:36am Aug 1, 2008 8:36am
Quoting AmeriTrini
I think it will go down to the 9600 level then up we go, not today ofcourse.

Cool, thanks. I'm still holding long, so lets see.

Quoting Runway Trade
I am tempted to add a long from here!!? Down action not as strong as I thought it will be? PA slow but then it is Friday afternoon
It's at the bottom of my grid, so I am in at 1.9756. .... Fridays always throw us curve balls
  • #79,419
  • Aug 1, 2008 8:38am Aug 1, 2008 8:38am
im not seeing a round bottom yet on the 4h
USD Est Non Mortuus
  • #79,420
  • Aug 1, 2008 8:38am Aug 1, 2008 8:38am
Quoting DJ4x
Cool, thanks. I'm still holding long, so lets see.


It's at the bottom of my grid, so I am in at 1.9756. .... Fridays always throw us curve balls

I think we will see the same seesaw we witnessed yesterday.

A big move down then 10:00am EST ISM will push it back up.

but I agree if we get to 19630-9650 im defintley long.

Good Luck all ...
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