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EURUSD

  • #17,261
  • Aug 1, 2008 2:43am Aug 1, 2008 2:43am
Pay attention to these pair (eur usd -gbp usd). Usually they walk together... But now?
  • #17,262
  • Aug 1, 2008 2:44am Aug 1, 2008 2:44am
Quoting Seaward22
EU took the dive first, German retail number is bad.
8-9 pips drop since those news is hardly what I'd call a dive..
But if GU news in 45 minutes turn out bad, euro might have a hard time containing the pressure of a falling cable, even though it looks people really want to keep it rising slowly.
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #17,263
  • Aug 1, 2008 2:57am Aug 1, 2008 2:57am
[quote=dreamtrader;2141346]anyone knows what is happening with GU? news?

Bad news from BA and Alliance & Leicester - profits down 88-90%
  • #17,264
  • Aug 1, 2008 3:00am Aug 1, 2008 3:00am
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Helping the philosophically challenged
  • #17,265
  • Aug 1, 2008 3:01am Aug 1, 2008 3:01am
Quoting dreamtrader
anyone knows what is happening with GU? news?
also, there is a sharp drop in EUR/CHF

sorry for being off topic

seems currently e/u is not affected sharply by g/u for this moment
but maybe it is, as you say, reflected already
I think Euro is preparing for a jump
  • #17,266
  • Aug 1, 2008 3:02am Aug 1, 2008 3:02am
[quote=musicman007;2141373]
Quoting dreamtrader
anyone knows what is happening with GU? news?

Bad news from BA and Alliance & Leicester - profits down 88-90%
I see. Thank you very much musicman.
I only keep an eye on the forex calendar's news/reports.

May I know which free online news source you guys use for this kind of news that affect the currency?
  • #17,267
  • Aug 1, 2008 3:11am Aug 1, 2008 3:11am
Quoting Andrey
I think Euro is preparing for a jump
what way do you think it would jump to?
  • #17,268
  • Aug 1, 2008 3:35am Aug 1, 2008 3:35am
Geez... Do the Brits EVER have good news ?
Anyway, time to go up towards US news I believe.
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #17,269
  • Aug 1, 2008 3:36am Aug 1, 2008 3:36am
Quoting finian204rea
what way do you think it would jump to?
In my opinion good news or bad have not influence on currency movement so strongly.Try to imagine itself on a place of the Big Boys. What would you undertake for complication of simple players?
  • #17,270
  • Aug 1, 2008 3:39am Aug 1, 2008 3:39am
Quoting Andrey
In my opinion good news or bad have not influence on currency movement so strongly.Try to imagine itself on a place of the Big Boys. What would you undertake for complication of simple players?
I think they're more concerned with outsmarting each other. All of use here and all of us private speculative traders together are nothing compared to the big banks.
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #17,271
  • Aug 1, 2008 3:49am Aug 1, 2008 3:49am
We're going down boys and girls..
  • #17,272
  • Aug 1, 2008 3:53am Aug 1, 2008 3:53am
Quoting FxApasionado
We're going down boys and girls..
Why ? GU dropped 100 pips and EU didn't give up nothing. Now GU's rising and all US news expected negative. I think we'll be in 5580-5600 range in 3 hours.
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #17,273
  • Aug 1, 2008 4:03am Aug 1, 2008 4:03am
Morning all,

I stick with my Double Top scenario, not cause I want to believe it...I'm fine if it heads north to be honest and make money on longs...

Reason to stay bearish are identical as I posted before, summarized in current trend & market sentiment
Technical looking at chart, specially spiking over last 12 hrs shows a growing downside pressure.
True LTL at 1.551 is strong..however like one of my fellow traders yesterday said here.."smart money" is bearish..i.e. bullish target was 1.6+ despite strong UTL it was broken, we have a reverse scenario in place now...bearish target is 1.53 despite LTL, which IMO is the target to break.

Besides Unemployment figures, my eye is on the ISM Manufacturing Index today at 3pm (GMT), which can cause the break to happen..if negative, sure we will see a reaction north...will it be enough to break bearish sentiment...I doubt it...

There is room to play for scalpers till USD News between 1.555 (Support) & 1.562 (Pivot), outbreaks under 1.562 I would consider a "false" bullish signal.

As always...Just my 2 Cents..
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  • #17,274
  • Aug 1, 2008 4:16am Aug 1, 2008 4:16am
Well I sold the euro - usd at 15750 and 15680 this week but I'm now looking for a low. (see previous posts)

I have Monday as a change of trend but it is usually on a Friday..

I have a lot of pressure around the 478,452,446,442 avg 454

I use the last 3 ranges ranges down on both daily and weekly to look for trend reversals. 50%, 100% 150% 200% etc etc... never fails to find THE low. But it does give you lots of numbers so use them wisely.

As previosly stated the weekly has not done 4 weeks down since Dec last year and this week is week 3.

478 50% of a 4hr range

452 100% of a daily range
446 100% of a daily range
402 100% of a daily range

442 is 200% of the last weekly range down.

Also the last range down on a 4hr from 768 too 522 is 246 pips from 700 - 246 = 454.

Now look at a 4hr and look at support and resistance around these levels... and 468 looks like a good place to buy.

So based on this we are due a major reversal.
What bugs me is I have a calculated a 2nd possible lows..411.

I think the news may spike the market down. everyone is short only to be stopped out on the run up.

Anyway.. as usual I trade what I see and don't fall in love with what I plan. But it you don't have a view then you have nothing
  • #17,275
  • Aug 1, 2008 4:18am Aug 1, 2008 4:18am
this is what I see,, quite the resistance @ 1.5621 - 41 area,,
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  • #17,276
  • Aug 1, 2008 4:28am Aug 1, 2008 4:28am
Quoting Dukeman900
I think the news may spike the market down. everyone is short only to be stopped out on the run up.
You guys have this prevailing insight for some reason that "smart" and "strong" money is short. I don't see that. If smart money was short than why are we not falling and why was the fall so gradual and why the very tight and controlled ranges like right now - price can't make 5-6 extra pips to cross the 550. My personal opinion at least, is that "smart" money is waiting to mass some more "less smart" money stop orders above the price and then start the real action going up and eating them all to further fuel it.
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #17,277
  • Aug 1, 2008 4:37am Aug 1, 2008 4:37am
Quoting FxApasionado
this is what I see,, quite the resistance @ 1.5621 - 41 area,,
DOES IT MEAN IT WOULD DRIVE THERE TODAYCOS IM CURRENTLY LONG AT 1.5602
  • #17,278
  • Aug 1, 2008 4:48am Aug 1, 2008 4:48am
Quoting Jurrasic
You guys have this prevailing insight for some reason that "smart" and "strong" money is short. I don't see that. If smart money was short than why are we not falling and why was the fall so gradual and why the very tight and controlled ranges like right now - price can't make 5-6 extra pips to cross the 550. My personal opinion at least, is that "smart" money is waiting to mass some more "less smart" money stop orders above the price and then start the real action going up and eating them all to further fuel it.
Not a prevailing insight...1.6+ down to 1.55..(500 pips)...is a clearly bearish signal IMO...Question like always is...when do we reverse..since we are "used" to it...
Look at previous posts..just before we dropped out of 1.6+ zone..plenty of reasons there...remember world wide consensus..Dollar needs to get stronger, EUR/USD need stability, Oil needs to be lower cause of impact on Economies worldwide, Europe sliding into weaker economy, USD climbing out...etc...
This does not happen overnight and certainly not in 2 weeks time..

Imo Its been set in motion and who knows..this might only be the "tip of the Iceberg"... and focus on the overall picture.

Just my 2 Cents...
  • #17,279
  • Aug 1, 2008 4:50am Aug 1, 2008 4:50am
Quoting Jurrasic
You guys have this prevailing insight for some reason that "smart" and "strong" money is short. I don't see that. If smart money was short than why are we not falling and why was the fall so gradual and why the very tight and controlled ranges like right now - price can't make 5-6 extra pips to cross the 550. My personal opinion at least, is that "smart" money is waiting to mass some more "less smart" money stop orders above the price and then start the real action going up and eating them all to further fuel it.
To me your opinion is closer.
In any case time will judge us.
  • #17,280
  • Aug 1, 2008 4:57am Aug 1, 2008 4:57am
Quoting Shadowfx
Not a prevailing insight...1.6+ down to 1.55..(500 pips)...is a clearly bearish signal IMO...Question like always is...when do we reverse..since we are "used" to it...
Look at previous posts..just before we dropped out of 1.6+ zone..plenty of reasons there...remember world wide consensus..Dollar needs to get stronger, EUR/USD need stability, Oil needs to be lower cause of impact on Economies worldwide, Europe sliding into weaker economy, USD climbing out...etc...
This does not happen overnight and certainly not in 2 weeks time..

Imo Its been set in motion and who knows..this might only be the "tip of the Iceberg"... and focus on the overall picture.

Just my 2 Cents...
Well that's where we disagree I guess Shadow. As I see it "wishes" don't move the markets. The EU's interest rate difference has been increasing and I understand ECB will raise another quarter of a percent in sptember. And like I was saying, oil and gold are down and have lots of room to go back up without even breaking to new highs and UJ for example reached way above it's low when EU rushed above 1.5. AU and GU also have quite anough room to rise. And are close to the levels we had before the 1.5 crossing. That's just what I see. But we'll know soon anough I think, and the main thing of course is that wherever it goes profit is there to be made.
On the path to Enrichment.
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