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  • #17,241
  • Jul 31, 2008 11:28pm Jul 31, 2008 11:28pm
Quoting Seaward22
Last time I traded drunk I lost $3k in one night.
Drunk trading works. Just don't talk on here, it'll distract you, i forgot who said it , solitude is the school of genius, or something
  • #17,242
  • Jul 31, 2008 11:29pm Jul 31, 2008 11:29pm
There should be plenty of volatility going into NY session. I sense a positive surprise in NFP data, yet the ISM index is likely to come in lower than expected. The overal bullish support line dating back to last August appears unbroken, yet very close... Many pips to be had either way, for sure.
  • #17,243
  • Jul 31, 2008 11:42pm Jul 31, 2008 11:42pm
Quoting indotrader
the EURO could indeed replace the U.S. dollar as the world's primary reserve currency, EURO stability have already attract world international buseiness transactions.. as we all know not only in Europe.. even in South East Asia is about to addopt the same system soon.. so Im quite agree that this US bull is only temporary.. and in the future.. I have no idea if all that digital money goes back to US
Soros said that the sub-prime debacle would bring about the end of the dollar as the world's primary currency.

Well George and Indo - not likely.

Central banks hold hundreds of billions in greenbacks. That move would lead to significant paper losses negating any benefit from switching.

The Euro is too dependent on US growth to be considered a safe haven.

Let's not forget the demographic burdens. In the US there are 15 retired persons for every 100 working persons. In Euro-zone the ratio is 35 retired to 100 working and in 2050 it will be 75 to 100 in the Euro-zone. Love that socialized health care.

Additionally - China holds a trillion dollars (so does the Euro-zone) When you make the switch who's going to give China 1 trillion worth of equivalent Euros?

So - while this makes good press the reality is the dollar will be around as the world's currency longer than any of us on this thread.
  • #17,244
  • Jul 31, 2008 11:42pm Jul 31, 2008 11:42pm
Quoting Subdude
There should be plenty of volatility going into NY session. I sense a positive surprise in NFP data, yet the ISM index is likely to come in lower than expected. The overal bullish support line dating back to last August appears unbroken, yet very close... Many pips to be had either way, for sure.
If the NFP looks bad, that will probably drive oil down further on speculation that demand will wane as the economy slows. The dollar will gain on the euro if that happens. If the NFP looks better-than-expected, oil may rise on speculation demand will stay strong because jobs are supporting the consumer. The dollar should weaken in that case as traders buy oil. Of course, you want to watch oil futures trade for conformation.If the NFP looks bad, that will probably drive oil down further on speculation that demand will wane as the economy slows. The dollar will gain on the euro if that happens. If the NFP looks better-than-expected, oil may rise on speculation demand will stay strong because jobs are supporting the consumer. The dollar should weaken in that case as traders buy oil. Of course, you want to watch oil futures trade for conformation.
  • #17,245
  • Jul 31, 2008 11:55pm Jul 31, 2008 11:55pm
Quoting kirana
If the NFP looks bad, that will probably drive oil down further on speculation that demand will wane as the economy slows. The dollar will gain on the euro if that happens. If the NFP looks better-than-expected, oil may rise on speculation demand will stay strong because jobs are supporting the consumer. The dollar should weaken in that case as traders buy oil. Of course, you want to watch oil futures trade for conformation.If the NFP looks bad, that will probably drive oil down further on speculation that demand will wane as the economy slows. The dollar will gain on the euro if that happens. If the NFP looks better-than-expected, oil may rise on speculation demand will stay strong because jobs are supporting the consumer. The dollar should weaken in that case as traders buy oil. Of course, you want to watch oil futures trade for conformation.
I am highly skeptical of any correlation between oil prices and the NFP - can you provide some historical evidence? On the other hand, there's plenty of evidence that links downside surprises to NFP with EU rallies.
  • #17,246
  • Aug 1, 2008 12:02am Aug 1, 2008 12:02am
Anyone got long positions in this trade?
  • #17,247
  • Aug 1, 2008 12:12am Aug 1, 2008 12:12am
Hello everybody!

I am bearish for the day.

See my last analysis @ the news section @ FF:

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=98584

iiivb
  • #17,248
  • Aug 1, 2008 12:15am Aug 1, 2008 12:15am
Quoting iiivb
Hello everybody!

I am bearish for the day.

See my last analysis @ the news section @ FF:

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=98584

iiivb
good work
  • #17,249
  • Aug 1, 2008 12:23am Aug 1, 2008 12:23am
Quoting hussin naiji
good work
tyvm!
  • #17,250
  • Aug 1, 2008 12:26am Aug 1, 2008 12:26am
Quoting Subdude
I am highly skeptical of any correlation between oil prices and the NFP - can you provide some historical evidence? On the other hand, there's plenty of evidence that links downside surprises to NFP with EU rallies.
its happen just yesterday, when usd news comes in red.
  • #17,251
  • Aug 1, 2008 12:51am Aug 1, 2008 12:51am
Quoting Donyouth4eva
Anyone got long positions in this trade?
If it goes up it will take a zig zag path,
If down it will bang down hard.

Think seriously of getting out at 5530,
get out at 5518.
Reverse position.

If you please...
  • #17,252
  • Aug 1, 2008 1:37am Aug 1, 2008 1:37am
Quoting SpecialEd
Jurassic, don't you ever sleep? Thanks for all your input.
lol I was hanging out the whole evening and just took a glance at how things were before going to sleep. I did repeatedly try to wake up early today until I'm finally awake. Yeah, it's the work pressure I guess..
Quoting green
If it goes up it will take a zig zag path,
If down it will bang down hard.

Think seriously of getting out at 5530,
get out at 5518.
Reverse position.

If you please...
I think it may've just pulled a head an shoulders on us. Potentially, the new bullish channel is still in tact between these last two lows and a parallel of july 23 - 28 tops. Maybe some big boys wanted to get better longs in place..
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #17,253
  • Aug 1, 2008 1:40am Aug 1, 2008 1:40am
?
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Fools Rushing
  • #17,254
  • Aug 1, 2008 1:52am Aug 1, 2008 1:52am
Quoting MTF Test
?
that's not the big picture i'm seeing but YES, the direction is the same
... /$ -> LONG
  • #17,255
  • Aug 1, 2008 1:53am Aug 1, 2008 1:53am
looks to me going down this new month
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  • #17,256
  • Aug 1, 2008 1:59am Aug 1, 2008 1:59am
Quoting MTF Test
?
Looks good to me..
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #17,257
  • Aug 1, 2008 2:05am Aug 1, 2008 2:05am
For you to figure it out.

peace.
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Fools Rushing
  • #17,258
  • Edited 2:38am Aug 1, 2008 2:12am | Edited 2:38am
Quoting MTF Test
For you to figure it out.

peace.
Well, also oil retraced a lot. Gold's discontinued it's uptrend for a quite a while and down some and UJ reached a lot higher than it's low when EU rushed above 1.5.

Also smaller stuff, like AU down just for example.

EDIT: GU took a major dump, I guess that's what's keeping the euro down this hour.
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #17,259
  • Aug 1, 2008 2:43am Aug 1, 2008 2:43am
Quoting Jurrasic
Well, also oil retraced a lot. Gold's discontinued it's uptrend for a quite a while and down some and UJ reached a lot higher than it's low when EU rushed above 1.5.

Also smaller stuff, like AU down just for example.

EDIT: GU took a major dump, I guess that's what's keeping the euro down this hour.
anyone knows what is happening with GU? news?
also, there is a sharp drop in EUR/CHF

sorry for being off topic

seems currently e/u is not affected sharply by g/u for this moment
but maybe it is, as you say, reflected already
  • #17,260
  • Aug 1, 2008 2:43am Aug 1, 2008 2:43am
Quoting Jurrasic
Well, also oil retraced a lot. Gold's discontinued it's uptrend for a quite a while and down some and UJ reached a lot higher than it's low when EU rushed above 1.5.

Also smaller stuff, like AU down just for example.

EDIT: GU took a major dump, I guess that's what's keeping the euro down this hour.
EU took the dive first, German retail number is bad.
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