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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #79,241
  • Jul 31, 2008 12:04pm Jul 31, 2008 12:04pm
Quoting Bones
Cheers man that 4HR candle is just incredible isn't it?
I'm not sure what to make of it? got to catch up with whats happened in the news.
It sure is incredible.... on the face of it, it is telling us to short it.... but I am not convinced yet... There is also a pin forming on the daily..... the close will be telling.... I am flat for the moment....
Patience + Discipline - Greed = Success
  • #79,242
  • Jul 31, 2008 12:09pm Jul 31, 2008 12:09pm
United States12:30%GDP (QoQ)(2Q A)2.3 1.0 1.9

07/31/2008
United States12:30%Personal Consumption (2Q A)1.7 1.1 1.5

07/31/2008
United States12:30%Core PCE (QoQ)(2Q A)2.0 2.3 2.1

07/31/2008
United States12:30KInitial Jobless Claims (JUL 26)393 406 448

07/31/2008
United States12:30KContinuing Claims (JUL 19)3150 3107 3282

07/31/2008
United States12:30%Employment Cost Index (2Q)0.7 0.7 0.7

07/31/2008
United States13:45-Chicago PMI (JUL)49.0 49.6 50.8

07/31/2008
  • #79,243
  • Jul 31, 2008 12:22pm Jul 31, 2008 12:22pm
Quoting allserene
You and the Lurker are wanting a 1.96 long entry
Quoting nAVIN2007
lucky might buy at 1.96 ....me no way .
Quoting LuckyLurker
96xx to 9850/2.0055.

9530ish is technically the bottom of the price channel. so below that is where id set my risk.
heres my view
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: mod.jpg Size: 94 KB
USD Est Non Mortuus
  • #79,244
  • Jul 31, 2008 12:36pm Jul 31, 2008 12:36pm
My head interfered. Direction what,side, Up? Down ?

Ago 1,96 After 2,00 ?
There Ago 2.00, After 1,96 ?

Im speak english bad.. sorry.
  • #79,245
  • Jul 31, 2008 12:40pm Jul 31, 2008 12:40pm
ok its looking like that was the last trade for me this month...total pips made 640 all at 50p a pip ..

cant give up the day job yet but making my money back is a start market owe me still £500 so i got another 1000 pips to go b4 i get excited
  • #79,246
  • Jul 31, 2008 12:41pm Jul 31, 2008 12:41pm
funny.. after all that today.. cable just resumes the poo poo little range it was in before US GDP..

9830 - 9780
USD Est Non Mortuus
  • #79,247
  • Jul 31, 2008 12:49pm Jul 31, 2008 12:49pm
Quoting nAVIN2007
ok its looking like that was the last trade for me this month...total pips made 640 all at 50p a pip ..

cant give up the day job yet but making my money back is a start market owe me still £500 so i got another 1000 pips to go b4 i get excited
Good Month bro! Keep up the hard work!
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #79,248
  • Jul 31, 2008 12:50pm Jul 31, 2008 12:50pm
Quoting LuckyLurker
funny.. after all that today.. cable just resumes the poo poo little range it was in before US GDP..

9830 - 9780
if there was no nonfarm id short higher up again...but tomorrow news dont respect candle fornations so its very risky
  • #79,249
  • Jul 31, 2008 12:51pm Jul 31, 2008 12:51pm
yea NFP is sure to be a shocker
USD Est Non Mortuus
  • #79,250
  • Jul 31, 2008 12:52pm Jul 31, 2008 12:52pm
Quoting eohater
Good Month bro! Keep up the hard work!

thanks bro ...
  • #79,251
  • Jul 31, 2008 12:56pm Jul 31, 2008 12:56pm
boring :s
  • #79,252
  • Jul 31, 2008 12:57pm Jul 31, 2008 12:57pm
1h 62ema again.....
Patience + Discipline - Greed = Success
  • #79,253
  • Jul 31, 2008 12:58pm Jul 31, 2008 12:58pm
US. Economyhttp://www.ecpulse.com/en/images/cro...omepage_93.gif31 Jul 2008 Thursday
U.S growth trails estimates while revisions showed contraction begun in the fourth quarter of 2007!


The U.S. economy continued to expand during the second quarter of this year according to the Advanced GDP estimate, as the tax rebates helped the economy and continued to support consumer spending in the world's largest economy.

However the reported growth was less than median estimates, the economy grew in the second quarter 1.9% after growing a revised 0.9% in the first three months of the year, yet analysts were expecting rather a stronger growth at 2.3%, the report also included a revision to the fourth quarter of 2007 GDP estimate, as it was revised sharply to the downside showing that the U.S. economy contracted by 0.2%!

Personal spending rose 1.5% less than the expected 1.7% reading, but up from the previous quarter's 1.1% rise, the IRS stated handing out the tax rebates to Americans in May and continued through June, however the rise didn't match estimates as the effect of the rebates started to face in June, retail sales rose less than expected which could have hinted for slower spending towards the end of the month.

Core PCE rose in the second quarter 2.1% after a reported rise of 2.3% back in the first quarter, yet it was also above the expected 2.1% rise, inflation continued to rise during the second quarter as food and energy prices continued to feed inflationary pressures, and continued to add more pressures on the Feds' shoulders. As they seem to be stuck among downside risks to growth and upside risks to inflation…

Also the U.S. weekly jobless claims rose last week to 448 thousand from the prior revised reading of 404K, to take the four-week average up by 11K to 383,000, continuing claims rose 185,000 to 3.28 million to take the four-week average up by 42,750 to 3.17 million. As for the employment cost index it rose 0.7% in the second quarter inline with median estimates and the same as the previous rise.

Looking through the details of the GDP report for the second quarter, we can see that the housing sector continued cut from growth yet over a much slower pace as it cut only 0.6 percent after cutting 1.1 in the first quarter, while inventories subtracted 1.90% after cutting a mild 0.02%, while net exports continued to support economic growth over a strong pace supported mainly by the slump in U.S. dollar in the second quarter, net exports added a remarkable 2.40% after adding only 0.80% in the first quarter of this year, also governmental spending added 0.70% to growth after adding 0.40% in the prior estimate.

As exports continue to be of support to growth in the U.S and since businesses trimmed inventories well that eased further the pressure on production. According to the Chicago PMI the manufacturing sector actually expanded in July for the first time in six months coming above expectations to 50.8 from 49.6 the previous month.

Sub-indices showed prices pair surging hitting 90.7 from 85.5, while production and orders rose inventories also did pile up along side the continuing job loss in the sector, as the employment index fell further and still below 50 adding more clues to a weak labor report to be seen tomorrow.

Futures traders started to reduce their bets for a rate hike after the release, odds for a rate hike in September declined to 28.8% from 35.8%, while odds for an October rate hike declined to 40.2% from 45.2%, as the slower than expected growth would indeed prevent the Feds from hiking interest rates at least not before next year, as yesterday the Feds extended their Term Securities Lending Facility (TSLF) to January 2009 and increased their credit swap line with the ECB to $55 billion, which also hinted that the Feds still foresee that the current turbulence in the financial markets could continue to weigh down on economic growth.

The worst credit crisis to hit the U.S. economy forced U.S. banks and financial institutions into reporting more than $470 billion in write-downs and losses related to the U.S. sub-prime mortgages and the story seems to be far away from over right now!

The chances that Mr. Bernanke would even consider a change of stance right now remains rather very slim, the economy remains very fragile and it is too early to start looking at rising inflation as the main threat, especially after the latest drop in energy prices which might help ease some of the pressure off the Feds' back.

The Feds will need to make sure that the housing market at least settles, while tightened access to credit and soaring food and energy prices can also be neutralized along with providing stability in the financial markets in order to be able to look at rising inflation in the future maybe though not the near future.
  • #79,254
  • Jul 31, 2008 1:00pm Jul 31, 2008 1:00pm
UK Economyhttp://www.ecpulse.com/en/images/cro...omepage_93.gif 31 Jul 2008 Thursday
Wide steps forward towards recession in UK as home prices fall the most since 1990 and confidence hits a record low!!!


Recession is the heading and no one can seem to alter that though off markets minds as economic conditions continue to worsen in the kingdom by night fall, consumers are discontent executives are exhausted and officials are caught between a rock and a hard place. All that combined is sailing us right in the depth of recession as the light at the end of the tunnel dims further more!

The nation's fourth-largest mortgage lender Nationwide reported today the ninth consecutive drop in home prices this month as they plunged 1.7% exceeding that expected and previous, taking prices 8.1% lower than their levels last year the deepest fall since 1991 at the very least as conditions in the sector continue to worsen.

The sector's depression is pressing the economy further into recession as the contagion spreads into other sectors. Britons are surely agitated about their economy's state as the gauge of their confidence fell to the lowest on records in July according to Gfk survey dropped 5 points to -39. With declines in confidence across the board as households expect worsening finances over the coming 12 months especially as the labor market is slowing and inflation has peaked at 3.8% last month.

Britons are seeing their economy heading into recession while they ponder upon their tight financial position. Properties prices drop is only adding to their misery as their houses prices are on their way to fall below their mortgage debts which is further pushing Britons off the market and fueling further falls in the sector.

The economy expanded a sluggish 0.2% in the second quarter dragged softer by construction that is weakening on the back of low demand and falling properties values. The credit turmoil has left UK financial market starving for cash and that situation is still ongoing!

Mortgage rates are still rising and that is further slowing the stagnating market, mortgage approvals sank to a record low as lenders try to shore up their ailing balance sheets. Banks are raising capital and still see the bottom not till next year and that means worse conditions is still be endures as the financial system deprives the economy of liquidity.

Britons have trimmed their spending and sectors are contracting, conditions have much worsened since the BoE took the decision to again keep rates steady, as much deliberation will headway next week as they decide on rates. Oil and commodities' prices decline is surely a good sign yet are we to be relieved or still?

King had already made it clear that he sacrifices Britons living standards and expects the economy to slow to anchor inflation, yet so far the results of his actions along side his committee has delivered nothing but further downside risks as inflation is still peaking and the economy is to not just contract yet reaching the point to be threatened with deep recession and a protracted period of stagflation.

Little room to dodge a bullet here that heading right straight into the economy's heart tight monetary and fiscal instruments and I see the only thing we can account on here is actually the BoE starting to cut rates to take care of the beleaguered economy.

The Feds have extended their hands out to the distresses financial sector extended their loans into 2009 and adding more at discount windows, are the BoE to follow they are already behind on cutting rates and the money auctions are still oversubscribed and the swap plan has failed to ease the liquidity dehydration so are they to learn from the Feds or are they reluctant to learn from other's mistakes? Surely the Feds created the problem surely they were late in acting upon it and surely it spread to UK but at least they are working at arms length to counter it and they are doing a marvelous job compared to UK so solutions are needed and actions must be taken before I have to write our economy's formal obituary…
  • #79,255
  • Jul 31, 2008 1:01pm Jul 31, 2008 1:01pm
European Economyhttp://www.ecpulse.com/en/images/cro...omepage_93.gif 31 Jul 2008 Thursday
Stagflation is getting close to the Europeans…


A slow down is obvious now, its not rumors any more, the Union is falling in a serious trap or a status expressed by Stagflation, inflation is surging to the highest in 14 years, along with a curbed levels of exports that would have its toll on the overall expanding of growth levels.

Germany the leading EU economy began to sense serious deterioration in the labor markets, with huge companies in the Union being hesitant in hiring more people as they don’t see light at the end of the tunnel any more. Layoffs are increasing, departments closed in the banking sectors and letting workers leave due to the increasing expenses on the manufacturing sector led to 20 thousand worker layoff their work, though this reading slightly better than Junes fall of 38 thousand.

The increase in the Unemployment rate in Germany came along with the deteriorating confidence, with the IFO business climate and the current expectations dipping more in low levels non seen in a while making the situation worse, as the outlook for this economy is getting darker. We thought that Germany between all the 15 economies will be holding still against what is taking place in the financial markets but right now it's letting off its resilience.

So now we can say that all of the European economies fell down, though still they are holding on different levels; we all saw the data released on Spain with the housing markets still heading down south with no signs of recovery at all, in addition to the retail sales plummeting down south, though the reading released later in the upcoming weeks would reveal some important data on the levels of confidence the Spanish citizens reached to, and what measure the Industrial production will show.

Yet along with all that the falling production on the increasing expenses on the manufacturing sector, the European companies are not stopping the wages hikes that are acting to spur more inflation in the Union, which is triggering the second round effect the thing that Mr. Trichet used to deny in all his speeches that were made after the decision he used to take. And if it really turns out that the second round effect began in the European lands deep trouble is to come out, and one rate hike will not be suitable to mitigate those all time levels.

Though we must not deny the fact that the surging commodity prices was the main reason behind all those high inflation levels, where we wont see any easing consumer prices till the all time high levels eases down; worth noting that this month oil plunged down affected by the rising dollar prices and the brightening outlook on the US economy.

Today the flash estimate for consumer prices showed that prices rose to the highest in 16 years recording a 4.1% rise in July; the Euro climbed against the US dollar to 1.5611 levels as expectations of more rate hikes came back to markets, though personally I believe if we put the variables in front of us we must not take this reading as measure to the inflation especially that the rate hike was taken at the beginning of the month so the effect of this hike will be obvious in August, where expectations would point out to an easing levels due to the plunge that took place this month to oil prices and the rate hike for sure.

So the Union is hanging between high inflation pressures and the slowing growth, with the ECB holding on the wait and see stance just under standing the level of danger the Union is falling in… Dangers are coming more obvious and downturns are likely to happen any time soon.
  • #79,256
  • Jul 31, 2008 1:02pm Jul 31, 2008 1:02pm
I'm not convinced also and also flat.I'm thinking Ill trade within the falling channel.
I have seen this set up lots of times.The only pin there is the one at the bottom, yesterday ,and that is not great.Todays candle is not a trade able pin as it dose not have location. For that to be a pin it needs to be at the end of an up run like the 1hr candle today.






Quoting Infinity
It sure is incredible.... on the face of it, it is telling us to short it.... but I am not convinced yet... There is also a pin forming on the daily..... the close will be telling.... I am flat for the moment....
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: daily 31-07.gif Size: 71 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: hourly 31-07.gif Size: 45 KB
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #79,257
  • Jul 31, 2008 1:03pm Jul 31, 2008 1:03pm
possible h&s coming up on 1h
Patience + Discipline - Greed = Success
  • #79,258
  • Jul 31, 2008 1:05pm Jul 31, 2008 1:05pm
I'm wondering how to interpret this type of pin. Would it suggest the pound would fill the gap first for more down side potential next week? I'm
  • #79,259
  • Jul 31, 2008 1:07pm Jul 31, 2008 1:07pm
Quoting Infinity
possible h&s coming up on 1h
the close of today is more important than any move now
if above 860 area tomorrow sure bullish move if below then will continue bearish
  • #79,260
  • Jul 31, 2008 1:09pm Jul 31, 2008 1:09pm
Quoting Bones
I'm not convinced also and also flat.I'm thinking Ill trade within the falling channel.
I have seen this set up lots of times.The only pin there is the one at the bottom, yesterday ,and that is not great.Todays candle is not a trade able pin as it dose not have location. For that to be a pin it needs to be at the end of an up run like the 1hr candle today.
Daily not closed yet....but if it closes red, it qualifies as a bearish pin for me...
Patience + Discipline - Greed = Success
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