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  • #16,881
  • Jul 30, 2008 7:44am Jul 30, 2008 7:44am
I know it can sounds newbiew, but i think we will not soo much big down-movements today, situation looks to much oversold to me, need some breath..
  • #16,882
  • Jul 30, 2008 7:46am Jul 30, 2008 7:46am
Seems 1.555 is holding...for now..

IMO downside pressure to remain strong, if it doesn't break DJI open can push it down if not then we will see the strongest move upon release of Oil Inv..which can be either the "nail in the coffin" for the EUR..read 1.55 and lower...or a retrace towards 1.56

As always...Just my 2 cents...
  • #16,883
  • Jul 30, 2008 7:47am Jul 30, 2008 7:47am
Quoting piptechnician
If you were a bull would you panic right now and what would that do to the price. Or do you wait for oil and hope?
well,..i am still a bull...i think its priced in...it should be +100k,..before euro bull would woory...its like,..we made 9k jobs,..o jee forgot to tell u we lost 80k previous month,..
its just money
  • #16,884
  • Jul 30, 2008 7:47am Jul 30, 2008 7:47am
Quoting freetrader
If you have a statistical analysis package, or you can use www.r-project.org an open source statistical analysis package R is a free software environment for statistical computing and graphics. It compiles and runs on a wide variety of UNIX platforms, Windows and MacOS. I used splus. Then you can obtain your data and build the ARIMA model regressing 20 periods to generate the chart with a 5 day forecast window.

Thanks alot!
I'll look into it and get back to you.

I know some statistics but not enough it seems Anyway I have one or two friends that might be able to provide some help

I always though this kind of approach is worth investigating although I mostly trade momentum and short term trend.
  • #16,885
  • Jul 30, 2008 7:47am Jul 30, 2008 7:47am
yesterday i took a beatign from the euro bears... It sucked.Thats what i get for not following my system. ...is all good leason learned..

today im kicking the dollar ass...peace and good tradings to everyone...
DISCIPLINE IS THE KEY TO SUCCESS!!!:nerd:
  • #16,886
  • Jul 30, 2008 7:47am Jul 30, 2008 7:47am
Quoting freetrader
If you have a statistical analysis package, or you can use www.r-project.org an open source statistical analysis package R is a free software environment for statistical computing and graphics. It compiles and runs on a wide variety of UNIX platforms, Windows and MacOS. I used splus. Then you can obtain your data and build the ARIMA model regressing 20 periods to generate the chart with a 5 day forecast window.
SO with your char we eill have EUR/USD 1.58?
  • #16,887
  • Jul 30, 2008 7:47am Jul 30, 2008 7:47am
1.5615 capped after shorts were stopped out and price is easing again. Support at 1.550 has come back under pressure but a clear break not seen as yet. Hourly studies bearish. Daily trend studies are heading south

peace...
Fools Rushing
  • #16,888
  • Jul 30, 2008 7:48am Jul 30, 2008 7:48am
Quoting Ulterior
NFP came not only better than forcasted, but also in the negative to negative number! What longs on EUR????

So ? It's just a news report. There is so much resistance down there according to all technicals. Plus the market was held back from rising and then collapsed already the past few days. It didn't even reach 540 now, shows strenght. Expect near 650 at the least before more big drops if at all.
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #16,889
  • Jul 30, 2008 7:48am Jul 30, 2008 7:48am
Can someone give me a brief lesson on drawing trendlines. For example, safe to assume that I should use either daily or weekly chart when drawing a TL? When drawing a downward one, do I draw the TL to touch the "lows" or the "closes"? Can anyone recommend a good reference on the subject?

Many thanks,
Up or down, gimme a ticket
  • #16,890
  • Jul 30, 2008 7:52am Jul 30, 2008 7:52am
Quoting Jurrasic
No. The lower trend line of this whole dowtrend from 1.6 and the Daily 100 ema and a smaller upwards Daily channel lower trend line (from about the past 2 months) all pass around 5530. So no reason for panic, reason for buying when it gets closer, my personal opinion of course.

Good, my exhuberance needed to be put in check. I'll be looking to get in and go short for 15 pips, if this can stay below the 1.5553 to 1.5550 price area.

Gold slowly coming back up, it took a dive with the Euro, US stocks still looking to open higher in pre market trading.
Redefining Reality
  • #16,891
  • Jul 30, 2008 7:52am Jul 30, 2008 7:52am
Quoting de123
well,..i am still a bull...i think its priced in...it should be +100k,..before euro bull would woory...its like,..we made 9k jobs,..o jee forgot to tell u we lost 80k previous month,..
I think the bull run is over at least for now....
right now i will watch the pair carefuly and wait until my system tells me what up.....but besides that the bears have been making a killin in the las few days.
DISCIPLINE IS THE KEY TO SUCCESS!!!:nerd:
  • #16,892
  • Jul 30, 2008 7:59am Jul 30, 2008 7:59am
Could the current situation on EUR/USD be explained only on pure speculative capital movements before NYSE opening?
  • #16,893
  • Jul 30, 2008 7:59am Jul 30, 2008 7:59am
been shorting this pair today.. call me crazy newb or anything but Im looking to place a heavy long on this one.. I see something on my chart
Money often costs too much...
  • #16,894
  • Jul 30, 2008 8:02am Jul 30, 2008 8:02am
Huh? You've been shorting now you want to go long because you see "something"? Please explain...
  • #16,895
  • Jul 30, 2008 8:03am Jul 30, 2008 8:03am
hehe, did you see how it was pushed below 1.556 on 1hr? was it you ShadowFX?
  • #16,896
  • Jul 30, 2008 8:03am Jul 30, 2008 8:03am
I've just taken a 14pip profit on my demo account. My scalping system says that I should wait until the support line is broken before getting into another 'short' trade.
  • #16,897
  • Jul 30, 2008 8:03am Jul 30, 2008 8:03am
Quoting seesaw
Huh? You've been shorting now you want to go long because you see "something"? Please explain...
just a possibility of a "retracement"
Money often costs too much...
  • #16,898
  • Jul 30, 2008 8:04am Jul 30, 2008 8:04am
I'm short, stocks look good, gold looks good, resistence still testing but, hey no guts no glory. I'm going 1:1 risk reward, not great but still have room from yesterday to play.
Redefining Reality
  • #16,899
  • Jul 30, 2008 8:05am Jul 30, 2008 8:05am
We have heard about "retracement" for two days now...I don't know when this will happen but it will happen.

I personally think going long right now before confirmation is a little risky.
  • #16,900
  • Jul 30, 2008 8:06am Jul 30, 2008 8:06am
Quoting de123
well,..i am still a bull...i think its priced in...it should be +100k,..before euro bull would woory...its like,..we made 9k jobs,..o jee forgot to tell u we lost 80k previous month,..
A true shrewd forex trader would recognize when is the bull run and when the bear is in control. When eurusd has dropped 200 pips in the last 2 days, almost 500 from the high 2 weeks ago, and you still say you are a euro bull, that makes you miss a lot of pips. I was once a one-way trader, but now I learned to go both ways so I can make money when euro goes up or down.
Expected the unexpected
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