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  • #16,741
  • Jul 29, 2008 1:23pm Jul 29, 2008 1:23pm
Quoting Shadowfx
..Seaward, give the guy a break, his first post in here and I guess he's just honestly exited about having made +400 pips...well done for him...
thanx a lot
  • #16,742
  • Jul 29, 2008 1:29pm Jul 29, 2008 1:29pm
Quoting atif
See the chart. RSI and MACD both pointing towards down signal.
20SMA at 1.5800 level if it breaks then down move will be confirmed.
Daily showing range bound since it fell from 1.60.

Fundamental Issues:
Oil and Gold is coming down and if it continues next week then dollar will move from it's oversold position.
Euro economy is not strong enough to deal with strong euro.
If Oil comes down then the inflation will come down and no more rate hike for Euro. Maket realized that world can't except oil at 145 a barrel. That was the top and now it's time to move downward. Speculator's are not betting to move it higher anymore. Now, they will short to make profit from down move.
That's all my opinion. You guys can input yours.
My July 19th prediction when everyone was talking about Bullish Euro.
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  • #16,743
  • Jul 29, 2008 1:32pm Jul 29, 2008 1:32pm
Quoting atif
My July 19th prediction when everyone was talking about Bullish Euro.

Nice :-)

Now lets hope your right about the Aussie and Kiwi as well :-)
  • #16,744
  • Jul 29, 2008 1:34pm Jul 29, 2008 1:34pm
Quoting vancom
I'm short from 1.59684 (more than +407 pips now) my TP is at 1.55 too. So to get there ....

BTW 132% of account ballance in 11 days is not bad

m.
Great job... Now maybe 2 weeks of bearish USD?
  • #16,745
  • Jul 29, 2008 1:34pm Jul 29, 2008 1:34pm
Quoting atif
My July 19th prediction when everyone was talking about Bullish Euro.
Ill remind you of that opinion at 1.62
  • #16,746
  • Jul 29, 2008 1:39pm Jul 29, 2008 1:39pm
Quoting Clouds
Ill remind you of that opinion at 1.62
I will stop trading currency if you can prove that Euro trading at 1.62
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  • #16,747
  • Jul 29, 2008 1:49pm Jul 29, 2008 1:49pm
Quoting atif
My July 19th prediction when everyone was talking about Bullish Euro.


Im still talking euro bulls.
  • #16,748
  • Jul 29, 2008 1:54pm Jul 29, 2008 1:54pm
Quoting atif
I will stop trading currency if you can prove that Euro trading at 1.62
well, what are your long-term views on this pair, (not too long term), but where do you see it stop dropping, and then where will it go from there?
for example
to 1.54 then to 1.59
to 1.53 then to 1.58
  • #16,749
  • Jul 29, 2008 1:55pm Jul 29, 2008 1:55pm
Quoting atif
I will stop trading currency if you can prove that Euro trading at 1.62
No offense , anything can happen in forex.Just see wkly chart of nearly 7 years of bulls can't be stopped so easily.Lots of up & down expecting in coming months , big sideways .

anyway placed long for some retracement for only 30 pips should be much more ) overnight.

fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #16,750
  • Jul 29, 2008 1:56pm Jul 29, 2008 1:56pm
will definetly touch 1.6 before another further dollar rally

(if this year is really the end of the euro bull trend)
Money often costs too much...
  • #16,751
  • Jul 29, 2008 2:04pm Jul 29, 2008 2:04pm
Quoting Clouds
Ill remind you of that opinion at 1.62

...and most of the participans are shorter-term traders
  • #16,752
  • Jul 29, 2008 2:09pm Jul 29, 2008 2:09pm
Quoting Clouds
well, what are your long-term views on this pair, (not too long term), but where do you see it stop dropping, and then where will it go from there?
for example
to 1.54 then to 1.59
to 1.53 then to 1.58
I think, we have seen the top for Euro. Yes, it might hit 1.60 or 1.61 (Not 1.62) one more time, only if oil started to go up and hit $150 level again. Which I very much doubt.
Everything is depending on oil price and inflation.
If oil goes down then inflation will go down and all other central banks will start to cut their interest rate to boost economy except U.S.
U.S. will start to raise interest to boost dollar.
UK and Euro looking for rate cut to boost economy but inflation is their biggest worry.
Now that Oil is coming down at the year-end you will start seeing rate cut by other central banks.
By end of 2009, we will trade Euro at 1.52 or 1.53 level.
It's my short term view (2yrs.)
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  • #16,753
  • Jul 29, 2008 2:18pm Jul 29, 2008 2:18pm
Quoting atif
I think, we have seen the top for Euro. Yes, it might hit 1.60 or 1.61 (Not 1.62) one more time, only if oil started to go up and hit $150 level again. Which I very much doubt.
Everything is depending on oil price and inflation.
If oil goes down then inflation will go down and all other central banks will start to cut their interest rate to boost economy except U.S.
U.S. will start to raise interest to boost dollar.
UK and Euro looking for rate cut to boost economy but inflation is their biggest worry.
Now that Oil is coming down at the year-end you will start seeing rate cut by other central banks.
By end of 2009, we will trade Euro at 1.52 or 1.53 level.
It's my short term view (2yrs.)
yes oil is now bear.. but I wonder if the bear is just a correction.. the US wont raise the int rate in my opinion.. thats not the solution to solve their current economical condition.. all Im trying to say that its too early to confirm the end of eur bull
Money often costs too much...
  • #16,754
  • Jul 29, 2008 2:38pm Jul 29, 2008 2:38pm
Quoting indotrader
yes oil is now bear.. but I wonder if the bear is just a correction.. the US wont raise the int rate in my opinion.. thats not the solution to solve their current economical condition.. all Im trying to say that its too early to confirm the end of eur bull
That's why I said it might hit 1.60 level again but not beyond that.
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  • #16,755
  • Jul 29, 2008 2:38pm Jul 29, 2008 2:38pm
Quoting indotrader
yes oil is now bear.. but I wonder if the bear is just a correction.. the US wont raise the int rate in my opinion.. thats not the solution to solve their current economical condition.. all Im trying to say that its too early to confirm the end of eur bull
or the end of the usd bear, of course usd has gotta stronger, rather than losing a penny a week, now it looses a penny every 4 weeks , or something like that
  • #16,756
  • Jul 29, 2008 2:46pm Jul 29, 2008 2:46pm
Quoting Clouds
or the end of the usd bear, of course usd has gotta stronger, rather than losing a penny a week, now it looses a penny every 4 weeks , or something like that
NZ already started to cutting their rate. Now, just wait for others.
That's how market works.
What goes up must come down and vice-versa
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  • #16,757
  • Jul 29, 2008 2:47pm Jul 29, 2008 2:47pm
Another thing to think about is the usd/chf, i've seen some analysis on it, that it's going reach 1.2, and is about make run to it, so "if" that plays out, the EU isn't going stop at 1.5 but around 1.3, or may just keep going down lower and lower, u know how traders love a trend. This could happen in matter of weeks and way before the end of year.
  • #16,758
  • Jul 29, 2008 2:56pm Jul 29, 2008 2:56pm
Looking at this very macro level, with no technical analysis in the way, I'm bearish because of the key oil resistance point we broke through today. It slipped below 121, and my hunch is that USD is growing stronger each day at least short term. Tomorrow is unemployment...it may dictate some movement, but for the immediate short term, I cannot see oil leaping to 140 all of a sudden, which is what it would have to do to get this pair bullish agan.

just my 2 pips
  • #16,759
  • Jul 29, 2008 2:56pm Jul 29, 2008 2:56pm
Quoting atif
NZ already started cutting their rate. Now just wait for others.
That's how market works.
What goes up must come down and vice-versa
Well, yea, I thought about NZ, but looking at other pairs matched up with NZD, like the pound, euro, aud , ect, they all are gaining on the NZD right now. I think there is going be a few strong currencies and some weaker ones, but don't know which ones. JPY &NZD weaker for now, AUD, GBP & EUR a bit stronger. The USD may get stronger, but not sure it will be the strongest, but have see.
  • #16,760
  • Jul 29, 2008 2:58pm Jul 29, 2008 2:58pm
Quoting seesaw
Looking at this very macro level, with no technical analysis in the way, I'm bearish because of the key oil resistance point we broke through today. It slipped below 121, and my hunch is that USD is growing stronger each day at least short term. Tomorrow is unemployment...it may dictate some movement, but for the immediate short term, I cannot see oil leaping to 140 all of a sudden, which is what it would have to do to get this pair bullish agan.

just my 2 pips
Well, the last G8 meeting was about oil prices, whatever they did, it worked.
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