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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #77,961
  • Jul 26, 2008 3:51pm Jul 26, 2008 3:51pm
Quoting forexmoments
Isn't internet in Saudi crap anyway?
More than you think
  • #77,962
  • Jul 26, 2008 3:54pm Jul 26, 2008 3:54pm
Quoting keramikus
You think internet signals in Saudi are carried by camels?
Hahahaha, funny. it's carried by three overseas fiber cable. just for your information.
another think CISCO build the bigest network infrastructure in Saudi Arabia. and if you don't know Cisco try to Google it.
i'm not Saudi but i love the place i born in it...
  • #77,963
  • Jul 26, 2008 6:49pm Jul 26, 2008 6:49pm
Hello guys,

Here is my technical analisys for next week.

I see GBP-USD going up this week.

4H TF tunnel - bouncing off the support.
Bullish AB=CD pattren in action.
Daily also bouncing off the support trend line.
Another bullish AB=CD pattern there.

If you want to read about the psychology of the AB=CD and see the sample on the chart, check here -> #54240

Ok guys good luck and good trading.

Don't said the market is crazy, just learn about the psychology of it.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AB=CD and possible Three Drive Pattern JULY 26.png Size: 97 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AB=CD Daily chart JULY 26.png Size: 50 KB
  • #77,964
  • Jul 26, 2008 9:38pm Jul 26, 2008 9:38pm
Quoting Abuawad
Hahahaha, funny. it's carried by three overseas fiber cable. just for your information.
another think CISCO build the bigest network infrastructure in Saudi Arabia. and if you don't know Cisco try to Google it.
i'm not Saudi but i love the place i born in it...
I remember Saudi. I was in Jeddah and living on bananas for 6 weeks because my wife was ill in hospital in the UK and my boss would not let me go back. He said it was only a woman so what's the problem. After 6 weeks eating bananas and giving him lots of money, he asked me to lay on the floor and kiss his feet and he might give me an exit visa. Yes you need an exit visa and your photo in the paper for a week to see if anyone wants to claim on you (at my cost). I said I would die there rather than do that and he knew I meant it. So I was there another month. My employer was government owned. I remember Saudi Arabia and the hands being cut off and public executions and dissenters thrown out of planes and the crazy english woman caged publicly for 2 years for drinking a bottle of beer. The english fed her mars bars through the bars of the cage

I am glad to know the internet works there but I am glad to be on this end of it
  • #77,965
  • Jul 26, 2008 11:04pm Jul 26, 2008 11:04pm
Brrrrr!
  • #77,966
  • Jul 26, 2008 11:20pm Jul 26, 2008 11:20pm
Quoting forexmoments
Isn't internet in Saudi crap anyway?
It may be crap but you know the way you count today, its of Arabic origin.
  • #77,967
  • Jul 27, 2008 1:41am Jul 27, 2008 1:41am
Quoting Carrera
Hello guys,

Here is my technical analisys for next week.

I see GBP-USD going up this week.

4H TF tunnel - bouncing off the support.
Bullish AB=CD pattren in action.
Daily also bouncing off the support trend line.
Another bullish AB=CD pattern there.

If you want to read about the psychology of the AB=CD and see the sample on the chart, check here -> #54240

Ok guys good luck and good trading.

Don't said the market is crazy, just learn about the psychology of it.
nice analysis, thx for reference..
  • #77,968
  • Jul 27, 2008 3:31am Jul 27, 2008 3:31am
Quoting Carrera
Hello guys,

Here is my technical analisys for next week.

I see GBP-USD going up this week.

4H TF tunnel - bouncing off the support.
Bullish AB=CD pattren in action.
Daily also bouncing off the support trend line.
Another bullish AB=CD pattern there.

If you want to read about the psychology of the AB=CD and see the sample on the chart, check here -> #54240

Ok guys good luck and good trading.

Don't said the market is crazy, just learn about the psychology of it.

Carrera

Our views coincide.

Pls., notice that this is a 6BU8 chart (Fut. SEP'08 GBP.USD)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 6BU8 240 min. 072508.jpg Size: 245 KB
  • #77,969
  • Jul 27, 2008 3:58am Jul 27, 2008 3:58am
Hello
I will play the wedged range and follow the breakout.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable1H.PNG Size: 77 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: cabledaily.PNG Size: 82 KB
  • #77,970
  • Jul 27, 2008 4:51am Jul 27, 2008 4:51am
Nice analysis. Keep up the good work

Quoting Carrera
Hello guys,

Here is my technical analisys for next week.

I see GBP-USD going up this week.

4H TF tunnel - bouncing off the support.
Bullish AB=CD pattren in action.
Daily also bouncing off the support trend line.
Another bullish AB=CD pattern there.

If you want to read about the psychology of the AB=CD and see the sample on the chart, check here -> #54240

Ok guys good luck and good trading.

Don't said the market is crazy, just learn about the psychology of it.
  • #77,971
  • Jul 27, 2008 5:42am Jul 27, 2008 5:42am
It could be a first wave downward as well.
We are still in bearish trend yet and RSI is closing slowly to 50.
I thnk this breakout will be depend on the news.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cablebear.PNG Size: 86 KB
  • #77,972
  • Jul 27, 2008 6:46am Jul 27, 2008 6:46am
If you consider news, i will feed you with some facts - locally house prices have fallen nearly 15 % in last 3 months [ belive it or not] , BOE member calling for outwright recession, also all supermarkets cuttig prices [up to half price] on peak holiday season .....

rings a bell like 1981 , when pound fell 50% or more.. something fishy..
  • #77,973
  • Jul 27, 2008 6:55am Jul 27, 2008 6:55am
Don't you think that's all priced in? I was always taught that the market's innate intelligence knows the state of the economy before it reaches "news".

Quoting goop
If you consider news, i will feed you with some facts - locally house prices have fallen nearly 15 % in last 3 months [ belive it or not] , BOE member calling for outwright recession, also all supermarkets cuttig prices [up to half price] on peak holiday season .....

rings a bell like 1981 , when pound fell 50% or more.. something fishy..
TRADE FOR SWAP
  • #77,974
  • Jul 27, 2008 7:03am Jul 27, 2008 7:03am
Quoting cgldsmth
Don't you think that's all priced in? I was always taught that the market's innate intelligence knows the state of the economy before it reaches "news".

cgldsmitn,

That's the point! I think (up-to-the-date) there's nothing new under the sun... will see tomorrow.
  • #77,975
  • Jul 27, 2008 7:28am Jul 27, 2008 7:28am
GU fibo 61.8
Posibility?? Yeah i think so....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU 27July08 H4 Fibo.jpg Size: 153 KB
  • #77,976
  • Jul 27, 2008 7:34am Jul 27, 2008 7:34am
Quote
If you consider news, i will feed you with some facts - locally house prices have fallen nearly 15 % in last 3 months [ belive it or not] , BOE member calling for outwright recession, also all supermarkets cuttig prices [up to half price] on peak holiday season .....

rings a bell like 1981 , when pound fell 50% or more.. something fishy..
That's why I consider bigger downmove next year IF price will brake 1.92 area.
In other hand if we able to break above 2.01 i won't touch cable for some time.

Imo october and january 08 may be significant for cable.
Look at these nice EWs patterns and my projections based on UK fundies.
Could it be that simple ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cablerecesion.PNG Size: 99 KB
  • #77,977
  • Jul 27, 2008 7:39am Jul 27, 2008 7:39am
Quoting 5ysfx
That's why I consider bigger downmove next year IF price will brake 1.92 area.
In other hand if we able to break above 2.01 i won't touch cable for some time.

Imo october and january 08 may be significant for cable.
Look at these nice EWs patterns and my projections based on UK fundies.
Could it be that simple ?
Saw your point.... Juz download your charts and keep it on my dekstop... Let us see how's will happen in GU.
  • #77,978
  • Edited 3:42pm Jul 27, 2008 11:36am | Edited 3:42pm
When you look at uk house prices and break down the fall
the area which drags down the national number is N Ireland.
Im not saying things are rosy just to be careful of that overall number as it comes from Ireland.(then wales)




Quoting goop
If you consider news, i will feed you with some facts - locally house prices have fallen nearly 15 % in last 3 months [ belive it or not] , BOE member calling for outwright recession, also all supermarkets cuttig prices [up to half price] on peak holiday season .....

rings a bell like 1981 , when pound fell 50% or more.. something fishy..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nationwide house prices.gif Size: 22 KB
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #77,979
  • Jul 27, 2008 12:39pm Jul 27, 2008 12:39pm
Quoting Carrera
Hello guys,

Here is my technical analisys for next week.

I see GBP-USD going up this week.

4H TF tunnel - bouncing off the support.
Bullish AB=CD pattren in action.
Daily also bouncing off the support trend line.
Another bullish AB=CD pattern there.

If you want to read about the psychology of the AB=CD and see the sample on the chart, check here -> #54240

Ok guys good luck and good trading.

Don't said the market is crazy, just learn about the psychology of it.
excellant stuff bro
Trading is 80% Emotional, 20% Technical
  • #77,980
  • Jul 27, 2008 12:59pm Jul 27, 2008 12:59pm
Quoting Bones
When you look at uk house prices and break down the fall
the area which drags down the national number is N Ireland.(whose currecy is the Eur BTW)
Im not saying things are rosy just to be careful of that overall number as it comes from Ireland.(then wales)
The currency in N.Ireland is sterling, as they remain part of the UK.

There often tends to be a time lag with falling house prices, in that the provincal parts of the country are first affected, with London and the south east following on at a later stage.

I am sure prices will come down a lot more, considering the lack of credit from the banking system (mortgages are down 60% on last year), weakening employment situation and higher inflation, all of which severely dents consumer confidence. On a fundamental basis, house prices are still extortionately expensive in relation to income and rents. Prices need to fall by about 25% to bring them back inline with their long-term average.

I agree that much of the above scenario has been priced into cable and UK stocks - with consumer discretionary, property and banking stocks decimated. How much is obviously impossible to quantify. But derivatives on home prices are forecasting over a 20% drop from preak to tough and most economists are predicting tightened credit conditions to continue well into 2009 and unemployment to rise to 1.8 million.

Therefore, the markets' outlook on UK plc is already grim, which should be mostly reflected in the current price of cable. However, I think cable can reach below 1.90 if economic data over the next few weeks/months highlights that the worse-case scenario is now becoming the likely scenario. This would imply that the BOE will have to cut rates more aggressively than previously thought, starting at the end of 2008.
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