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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #5,621
  • Feb 9, 2007 3:02am Feb 9, 2007 3:02am
Quoting gmohata
i wouldnt want to move into eur/usd just yet - if trade balance is better than expected - last nights EUR/GBP could start falling and with a weak EUR/JPY - EUR/USD will be bound to go down. Rather trade cable than eur at the moment

Girish
Actually I expected GBP/USD to recover as fast as EUR/USD, but well, with the news today, I am not a psychic to read what is everyone thinking...
I am just here to talk nonsense =D
  • #5,622
  • Feb 9, 2007 3:02am Feb 9, 2007 3:02am
just missed that close
  • #5,623
  • Feb 9, 2007 3:06am Feb 9, 2007 3:06am
If we can move and open a 1 hour candle bar above 1.9510, the chances for it to continue a movement down today will be much lower thus giving us sign for retracement..
I am just here to talk nonsense =D
  • #5,624
  • Feb 9, 2007 3:08am Feb 9, 2007 3:08am
Quoting Zarul Shahrin
If the market decided to go up today instead of continue going down, the possible target considering today low is 1.9600...
When I look at 4h chart first week this year, I get cold feet here. The pattern is the same.

Actually we had that huge selloff that was reversed by the "surprising" rate hike, that push it back up.

Market had an excessive reaction on a no-hike yesterday. Made it look like a rate cut!

If the market is resuming that 1st week selloff now that rates are defined, we're seeing 9200.

And there's this ancient fibo that wasn't completed yet : Low 9262, high 9913. We are hanging right at the 50 (9511), the 78 is 9401...

I'm absolutely clueless here. Cable is not responding to retracement for many many hours.
  • #5,625
  • Feb 9, 2007 3:12am Feb 9, 2007 3:12am
Quoting cesarnc
When I look at 4h chart first week this year, I get cold feet here. The pattern is the same.

Actually we had that huge selloff that was reversed by the "surprising" rate hike, that push it back up.

Market had an excessive reaction on a no-hike yesterday. Made it look like a rate cut!

If the market is resuming that 1st week selloff now that rates are defined, we're seeing 9200.

And there's this ancient fibo that wasn't completed yet : Low 9262, high 9913. We are hanging right at the 50 (9511), the 78 is 9401...

I'm absolutely clueless here. Cable is not responding to retracement for many many hours.
I still have a theory that I am not really sure how correct it is, but there is a logic with the slow retracement, if you look carefully, normally it will stay oversold / overbought for hours before moving back down or up, and if it retrace faster than that, there is possibility it will retest the high or low again...I haven't confirmed this theory though...
I am just here to talk nonsense =D
  • #5,626
  • Feb 9, 2007 3:12am Feb 9, 2007 3:12am
Oh, and on the rate hike aftermath, the move up was about 600 pips.... If this down move is kind of weaker, we could see 300-400 pips down from 9600....

Let's see this news... I'm usually tough to declare long term trend lines broken.
  • #5,627
  • Feb 9, 2007 3:13am Feb 9, 2007 3:13am
Quoting cesarnc
When I look at 4h chart first week this year, I get cold feet here. The pattern is the same.

Actually we had that huge selloff that was reversed by the "surprising" rate hike, that push it back up.

Market had an excessive reaction on a no-hike yesterday. Made it look like a rate cut!

If the market is resuming that 1st week selloff now that rates are defined, we're seeing 9200.

And there's this ancient fibo that wasn't completed yet : Low 9262, high 9913. We are hanging right at the 50 (9511), the 78 is 9401...

I'm absolutely clueless here. Cable is not responding to retracement for many many hours.
That 9200 number will be really good as the end of wave 3 (or C). But nobody knows.
Tra-X
  • #5,628
  • Feb 9, 2007 3:16am Feb 9, 2007 3:16am
How about this....

Placing a short @ MKT 1 min before news. Stop and Reverse at 10 pips above and TP 20-30 pips below....

I usually make a buck doing this... This time I'm not that sure...
  • #5,629
  • Feb 9, 2007 3:17am Feb 9, 2007 3:17am
I have a strong feeling that the news will reverse the down movement..Just my feeling though...
I am just here to talk nonsense =D
  • #5,630
  • Feb 9, 2007 3:20am Feb 9, 2007 3:20am
British Pound
The Bank of England’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged triggered a major sell-off in the British pound against the US dollar, Euro and Japanese Yen. The most interesting aspect of today’s move is the fact that trader positioning was so misaligned with analyst expectations. Given the narrow vote that supported the last rate hike, there was little chance for a follow-up move today. However the sharp divergence between UK and Eurozone monetary policy has earned EUR/GBP the status as the day’s most market moving currency pair on a percentage basis. The sell-off in the GBP/USD was exacerbated by a report from the Wall Street Journal that UK based HSBC was forced to set aside 20 percent more capital (most likely in US dollars) to cover the delinquencies in the US sub prime mortgage market. The fear that HSBC will struggle to recover from this has sent the company’s shares down to an 8 month low. However the blowup in the sub prime market has even greater significance. We are sure that HSBC, who is the world’s third largest bank, is not the only ones to suffer from the growing delinquencies in the US sub-prime lending market. If this problem exacerbates, it may be the first sign that the US economy is in trouble. The UK trade balance is due for release tomorrow and the strong level of the pound could push the deficit higher.
Life is What You Make It
  • #5,631
  • Feb 9, 2007 3:22am Feb 9, 2007 3:22am
Quoting retsonbiz
British Pound
The Bank of England’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged triggered a major sell-off in the British pound against the US dollar, Euro and Japanese Yen. The most interesting aspect of today’s move is the fact that trader positioning was so misaligned with analyst expectations. Given the narrow vote that supported the last rate hike, there was little chance for a follow-up move today. However the sharp divergence between UK and Eurozone monetary policy has earned EUR/GBP the status as the day’s most market moving currency pair on a percentage basis. The sell-off in the GBP/USD was exacerbated by a report from the Wall Street Journal that UK based HSBC was forced to set aside 20 percent more capital (most likely in US dollars) to cover the delinquencies in the US sub prime mortgage market. The fear that HSBC will struggle to recover from this has sent the company’s shares down to an 8 month low. However the blowup in the sub prime market has even greater significance. We are sure that HSBC, who is the world’s third largest bank, is not the only ones to suffer from the growing delinquencies in the US sub-prime lending market. If this problem exacerbates, it may be the first sign that the US economy is in trouble. The UK trade balance is due for release tomorrow and the strong level of the pound could push the deficit higher.
I remember reading this somewhere, but where?
I am just here to talk nonsense =D
  • #5,632
  • Feb 9, 2007 3:31am Feb 9, 2007 3:31am
Better than previous, worse than expected...

Friday stinks!
  • #5,633
  • Feb 9, 2007 3:34am Feb 9, 2007 3:34am
Quoting cesarnc
Better than previous, worse than expected...

Friday stinks!

haha yes , GBP now in shit
  • #5,634
  • Feb 9, 2007 3:42am Feb 9, 2007 3:42am
What can G7 do to GBP?
I am just here to talk nonsense =D
  • #5,635
  • Feb 9, 2007 3:43am Feb 9, 2007 3:43am
Well, I'm not trading until US open now...

Freaking carries on the move again. Every time I jump in that kind of market I loose money...

F'n Yen will call the shots today... GBPUSD is not responding to news, retracement, prays, nothing...

GEESSSS I missed that big move...
  • #5,636
  • Feb 9, 2007 3:44am Feb 9, 2007 3:44am
Quoting cesarnc
GBPUSD is not responding to news, retracement, prays, nothing...

GEESSSS I missed that big move...
It's pissing me off, it reacts to nothing whatsoever..dammit
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #5,637
  • Feb 9, 2007 3:46am Feb 9, 2007 3:46am
Quoting karmostaji
It's pissing me off, it reacts to nothing whatsoever..dammit
This is usually my call for alcohol. But can't even do this... 07:45 am here!!!
  • #5,638
  • Feb 9, 2007 3:48am Feb 9, 2007 3:48am
Quoting cesarnc
Well, I'm not trading until US open now...

Freaking carries on the move again. Every time I jump in that kind of market I loose money...

F'n Yen will call the shots today... GBPUSD is not responding to news, retracement, prays, nothing...

GEESSSS I missed that big move...

make a sell now T.P on 1.9435
  • #5,639
  • Feb 9, 2007 4:06am Feb 9, 2007 4:06am
Quoting viking
make a sell now T.P on 1.9435
Not responding yet... EUR just broke 1.3000..
  • #5,640
  • Feb 9, 2007 4:08am Feb 9, 2007 4:08am
Quoting cesarnc
Not responding yet... EUR just broke 1.3000..
eu sitting on 38.2% fibo line
Trade what you see, not what you think.
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