Cable Update (GBPUSD) | Page 280 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

GBP/USD

Similar Threads

Cable Update - Continued 118 replies

Cable Update (GBP/USD) without Idiots 25 replies

cable short for gbpusd? 10 replies

Why is GBPUSD called cable? 76 replies

Cable (GBPUSD) vs Euro (EURUSD) 31 replies

Attachments: Cable Update (GBPUSD)
Exit Attachments

Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #5,581
  • Feb 8, 2007 4:57pm Feb 8, 2007 4:57pm
Quoting ghamal
Seems to give a reason why the huge downmove today. From FXCM - www.dailyfx.com FXCM - DailyFX Fundamentals 02-08-07

US Dollar
Even though there was no US data to drive market activity today, there was quite a bit of interesting price action. The main event was the press conference after the ECB meeting. Interest rates were left unchanged, but as soon as the words “strong vigilance” came out of Trichet’s mouth, the ECB’s hawkish bias was set and bullishness was instilled in the Euro. The behavior in the British pound however was very different. The currency collapsed after the Bank of England left interest rates unchanged. It appears that more than a small minority may have been expecting an interest rate hike.

British Pound
The Bank of England’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged triggered a major sell-off in the British pound against the US dollar, Euro and Japanese Yen. The most interesting aspect of today’s move is the fact that trader positioning was so misaligned with analyst expectations. Given the narrow vote that supported the last rate hike, there was little chance for a follow-up move today. However the sharp divergence between UK and Eurozone monetary policy has earned EUR/GBP the status as the day’s most market moving currency pair on a percentage basis. The sell-off in the GBP/USD was exacerbated by a report from the Wall Street Journal that UK based HSBC was forced to set aside 20 percent more capital (most likely in US dollars) to cover the delinquencies in the US sub prime mortgage market. The fear that HSBC will struggle to recover from this has sent the company’s shares down to an 8 month low. However the blowup in the sub prime market has even greater significance. We are sure that HSBC, who is the world’s third largest bank, is not the only ones to suffer from the growing delinquencies in the US sub-prime lending market. If this problem exacerbates, it may be the first sign that the US economy is in trouble. The UK trade balance is due for release tomorrow and the strong level of the pound could push the deficit higher.

aaaahhhhhhh....
  • #5,582
  • Feb 8, 2007 5:12pm Feb 8, 2007 5:12pm
Quoting DownRiverTrader
Nice chart. When I look at your chart..... I see an uptrend

I do not ever look at indcators. They are totally worthless and for the lazy.

That's why they call it fishing and not catching I guess.
I do have some indicators on mine. I use them to find what timeframe traders are going to sell or buy from me. Pro's have rafts of trainee's that just sit and look to inform such as 5m traders are going to short here, give them 10-15 pips and then clear their miniscule stops and collect their money. Knowing it is happening helps identify true order flow which is what I work to trade. What I follow are ma's from multiple tf's. Anything else is actually kinda funny. I know, I have tried them all.

Brad
  • #5,583
  • Feb 8, 2007 5:34pm Feb 8, 2007 5:34pm
Cable, by it's lack of liquidity next to Euro, gives us the moves we all love (as long as we are on the right side) but it rarely truly leads the market. Euro is now on it's 3rd attempt to break this area and go north. Reports I have read today say there has been major selling into euro from this level yet all has been absorbed. If Euro can break 3050 known stops are there and shorts will liquidate giving fuel to a strong move up. Today, as far as my analysis, simply was cable being adjusted back into parity with euro. Remember, we had a major disparity last month when London raised interest rates unexpectedly. If you look at eurgbp you can see the adjustment. If euro can break the range, since we are back to parity with it, they should start to correlate again, Just my 2 cents worth.

Brad
  • #5,584
  • Feb 8, 2007 8:32pm Feb 8, 2007 8:32pm
Cable should be in subwave 2 corrective of its powerful downwards wave 3 or C. The question is whether cable will retrace further before continue to go down. But so far retracement is really poor (only hit 23.6% at 1.9585), so maybe we'll see abit more correction first.
Tra-X
  • #5,585
  • Edited 8:49pm Feb 8, 2007 8:37pm | Edited 8:49pm
Traex,

It's not fractal geometry, dude, it's relative interest rates. If you can predict the Fed or BOE mathematically, let me know, and I'll stop watching the news...

Also, if you can predict, mathematically, when people will freak out, please forward the results in GMT. I am not a theorist, I am a participant. I do not predict, I react. I make money this way. I watch, I react, and I profit. Veni, Vidi, Vici. That's it.
"The time to act is when others show signs of tire." --W.D. Gann
  • #5,586
  • Feb 8, 2007 8:53pm Feb 8, 2007 8:53pm
Quoting cesarnc
I'm on the uptrend, too. But on this 4hr candle pattern another spike down are still in the cards.

And indeed, only a clear break of 9500 / 9480 would open the room a short/medium term downtrend...

On the indicators, I use them to back me up when too close to important trendlines. RSI seems to work quite well. Most of the time when it breaks 40 and 60 price continues. And quick turnarounds usually takes place at 40 and 60... Just a back up though... I'm trying to get rid of them, but I just can't
Hey cesar, check the rsi on the one hour pound chart. look at all the times it goes below thirty. it almost always bounces up from there for a good ten to twenty pip pop! (sometimes more) the same goes for the rsi when its above 70 on the same chart. its uncanny. just some food for thought, but its also makin me money. (keep in mind, it mostly applies when major markets are open, not during slow times)
"i wake up in the morning, and i piss excellence"
  • #5,587
  • Feb 8, 2007 9:44pm Feb 8, 2007 9:44pm
Quoting dukeofdents
Traex,

It's not fractal geometry, dude, it's relative interest rates. If you can predict the Fed or BOE mathematically, let me know, and I'll stop watching the news...

Also, if you can predict, mathematically, when people will freak out, please forward the results in GMT. I am not a theorist, I am a participant. I do not predict, I react. I make money this way. I watch, I react, and I profit. Veni, Vidi, Vici. That's it.
Duke,

Now this is first time someone commented on my footnote quote lol. Well, forex price movements and even everything in this world is indeed fractal (but chaotic), and we humans never know and can never know the equation. Do not ever try to figure it out, it's like trying to catch the wind.
In forex, millions of traders plus BOE, the Fed, etc make up the equation, so yes, we need to watch BOE/Fed's decisions to anticipate roughly which way market is going. Yes, to anticipate only; we all don't have a time machine right?

You want my predictions on cable? Here it is: cable will move down today, if not it'll move up. But I'm sure it'll move to the right.
Tra-X
  • #5,588
  • Feb 9, 2007 1:45am Feb 9, 2007 1:45am
For those who shorted could already tighten s/l now imo. Good luck.
Tra-X
  • #5,589
  • Feb 9, 2007 1:50am Feb 9, 2007 1:50am
oh lord, show us mercy!! i'm glad I didn't go long, I was about to pull the trigger untill it plummeted.
  • #5,590
  • Feb 9, 2007 1:53am Feb 9, 2007 1:53am
I missed

Wow... may have been the opportunity of the day....

Fridays....
  • #5,591
  • Feb 9, 2007 1:55am Feb 9, 2007 1:55am
.........for 15 blasted minutes and the bottom falls of the GBP/USD!!! So I guess I'll wait on the actual news release of the Trade Balance at 4:30 AM EST....
Show me the PIPS!
  • #5,592
  • Feb 9, 2007 1:56am Feb 9, 2007 1:56am
Quoting cesarnc
I missed

Wow... may have been the opportunity of the day....

Fridays....
No. not yet, you can still long, most of the indicators showing oversold on many USD pairs, and it almost reach it daily range..
I am just here to talk nonsense =D
  • #5,593
  • Feb 9, 2007 1:58am Feb 9, 2007 1:58am
Quoting Zarul Shahrin
No. not yet, you can still long, most of the indicators showing oversold on many USD pairs, and it almost reach it daily range..
I mean by daily range. is on my chart which not gmt....
I am just here to talk nonsense =D
  • #5,594
  • Feb 9, 2007 1:58am Feb 9, 2007 1:58am
Quoting Zarul Shahrin
No. not yet, you can still long, most of the indicators showing oversold on many USD pairs, and it almost reach it daily range..
Yeahhh... 1hr and 4hr have room to more down move. 15M and 5M are blown up already...

Let's see London open..

BTW, good call on the down move... We almost touched your 9535 yesteday
  • #5,595
  • Feb 9, 2007 2:02am Feb 9, 2007 2:02am
To be honest, I didn't expect it to move this far..not before retracing a little bit first..., in fact I am already long and now negative 30 pips, a very important lesson I learnt today that I should put into consideration next time I make my analysis...
I am just here to talk nonsense =D
  • #5,596
  • Feb 9, 2007 2:06am Feb 9, 2007 2:06am
I am afraid this move will continue until eur/usd reach 1.2994 before a strong movement up...
I am just here to talk nonsense =D
  • #5,597
  • Feb 9, 2007 2:12am Feb 9, 2007 2:12am
It's been a Yen carries move, also. JPY is in tandem. This is a risk we have to face today. Yen pairs will get into position for weekend's G7 summit. Strong moves, either way are on the cards...
  • #5,598
  • Feb 9, 2007 2:12am Feb 9, 2007 2:12am
Look at AUD/USD, Cable, EUR/USD, USD/CHF - You see a major USD strenthening over the last 1 hour. Then look at the USD/JPY - Almost no affect at all. To me this implies that JPY is being bought against all other majors before the G7 starts (and the tokyo close in 1 hour). Traders are flatenning their positions which is making GBP, EUR and AUD all go south. I believe all of these should start making their way north within the next hour as buy orders will start coming in - specially for the EUR.

Regards,
Girish
  • #5,599
  • Feb 9, 2007 2:14am Feb 9, 2007 2:14am
Well...it's already hit EUR /USD 1.2997...close enough?
Show me the PIPS!
  • #5,600
  • Feb 9, 2007 2:14am Feb 9, 2007 2:14am
A UK clearer and US investment house have been standout sellers of [EUR/JPY] in the slide through 158.00. The cross has lost almost a Yen since open, as Europe's session shows more pre G7 jitters/nerves than the previous Asian one. The initial sell off came on the back of loose rumours that the G7 would make reference to the weak Jpy. Further, an article in today's FT is getting some exposure. It suggests that powerful Democrats in Congress are pressing the Bush admin (including Paulson) to persuade Tokyo to strengthen the Japanese currency. A letter was written to the Treasury Sec calling on Paulson to urge the Japanese govt "to reverse their weak Yen policy" in order to protect US manufacturers, the article adds.
262 traders viewing now