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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #11,801
  • Edited 7:50pm Jul 18, 2008 7:16pm | Edited 7:50pm
Quoting Flem26
Just like a wise man once said (James), the gift that keeps on giving . . .
Not wrong!
Todays also off of a trendline I drew a week ago from the November high. ...Looks good for an entry sometime Monday.

Cable has had the prettiest daily bar chart this year. Anyone learning PA based trading and sticking to just this pairs daily chart would learn a lot.

Loving it!


(4 Hour chart...)
Attached Image
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #11,802
  • Jul 18, 2008 8:39pm Jul 18, 2008 8:39pm
Quoting KissFan
I would want to see the low at least down to the .9660 area before I would consider the trade. Even then, placement is important. This one is not necessarily in traffic, but the candlestick pattern befor the PB is kind of sloppy looking. I like to see one like we had on July 9.
Thanks! I am learning what to look for in addition to just technically being a pb. If you don't mind I would like to ask you an additional question. Let's say that we are looking at the one on July 9th, would you enter into the trade as soon as the next bar first breaks up, or would you wait for to see a small comeback and then broke back up? Thank you in advance for your opinion!
  • #11,803
  • Jul 19, 2008 12:06am Jul 19, 2008 12:06am
Quoting Flem26
Just like a wise man once said (James), the gift that keeps on giving . . .
i don't see the Pb as you see it my open and close are not so close together. but the nose is still promising....

some good trades lining up for Monday!
I believe . . .
  • #11,804
  • Edited 4:46am Jul 19, 2008 4:16am | Edited 4:46am
I see the gbp pinbar as a (sort of proxy) pin on the 4hr chart, but one question I hope someone can answer:

It only took one bar to go down, but needed two bars to go up. If it took more time to go up, isnt the market more bearish?
Are we just seeing what we want to see rather than the reality?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp.gif Size: 35 KB
If it's too good to be true, it probably is.
  • #11,805
  • Jul 19, 2008 5:05am Jul 19, 2008 5:05am
Quoting ghous
i don't know why but i don't feel confident for the Uj PB, the fact that it broke out of a traingle and that the net trend is still down i don't feel like taking this one, what do you say guys?
I think this is a good example of the value of feelings in trading. opinions are not tradable and feelings are even worse. In this example you would be double your risk in front right now except you didnt take the signal cause of how you felt. A PB is usually a counter trend set up so there always going to be mixed "feelings" before entry. If you could "feel" what the market was going to do you wouldnt need set ups or a probability mind set. Truth is, you never have a clue what the market will do next. however, you can know what you will do next if you are disciplined and dont second guess signals based on something as transient as how you feel about it.
BTC Return This Year: na
  • #11,806
  • Jul 19, 2008 5:14am Jul 19, 2008 5:14am
Quoting SimonK
I see the gbp pinbar as a (sort of proxy) pin on the 4hr chart, but one question I hope someone can answer:

It only took one bar to go down, but needed two bars to go up. If it took more time to go up, isnt the market more bearish?
Are we just seeing what we want to see rather than the reality?
yeah could be besides note how the weekly is signaling a short with a pin bar with the nose to the north, the short may not be there atall, it all depends on how the first few hours of take off in the London session on Monday. To me this trade is looking less likely then it was yesterday when i first saw the pin on the daily.
I believe . . .
  • #11,807
  • Jul 19, 2008 5:17am Jul 19, 2008 5:17am
Quoting M.A.C.Doug
If you could "feel" what the market was going to do you wouldnt need set ups or a probability mind set.
Good stuff there MAC. I just might change my signature to that.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #11,808
  • Jul 19, 2008 5:17am Jul 19, 2008 5:17am
Quoting M.A.C.Doug
I think this is a good example of the value of feelings in trading. opinions are not tradable and feelings are even worse. In this example you would be double your risk in front right now except you didnt take the signal cause of how you felt. A PB is usually a counter trend set up so there always going to be mixed "feelings" before entry. If you could "feel" what the market was going to do you wouldnt need set ups or a probability mind set. Truth is, you never have a clue what the market will do next. however, you can know what you will do next if you are disciplined and dont second guess signals based on something as transient as how you feel about it.
i agree with you but that feeling obviously came from something on the charts, it was'nt just an inside feeling as i mentioned in that post there were a few technicals that the Pin bar was looking to go against if the trade was taken in favor of it so i decided to stay out, my descion was wrong and i missed easy 250 pips that were there...i am still learning PA which is more difficult then looking at a certain indicator setup and diving into the trade ofcaorse not to mention the positives of going with PA...
I believe . . .
  • #11,809
  • Jul 19, 2008 6:44am Jul 19, 2008 6:44am
Quoting SimonK
It only took one bar to go down, but needed two bars to go up. If it took more time to go up, isnt the market more bearish?
Hi Simon,

What happens when a BIG entity needs to take some profit?

If someone has a very large position to get rid of, they can do it in stages over many hours, or even days. With really big orders they have to. ...This can cause quick bars against the predominant direction as they empty out a portion of their (or their clients) position over a period of time, let the market recover, and then close out a further parcel. (OR they may be establishing a position in the opposite direction. Let's not forget that! ) . ...This is happening ALL the time.

OR another possible reason...

What if most traders decided to wait for a pull-back after the level ( or trend line) broke??

In this case the buy orders thin out until we hit everybody's buy level (or levels), where they expect to get back in.

This can be one reason why a pin bar etc can fail. That's why you need a confluence of events and why you don't just take any old set up. A pin can form just because someone or a group just has to change their exposure right there and then. ...one reason anyway.

That's not to say we aren't going down from here, but personally, I'm willing to risk a known portion of my account on it continuing up in the current circumstances
...IF I get a good entry.

Hopefully this makes sense? Have been trying to to write this and watch a movie at the same time!! LOL

.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #11,810
  • Jul 19, 2008 7:05am Jul 19, 2008 7:05am
Thanks for the explanation Bundyraider.

I agree with you on the confluence. I wouldnt take a pinbar unless it lined up with ma's, s/r and fibs and possibly even had some news and market sentiment to support it.

Enjoy the movie!
If it's too good to be true, it probably is.
  • #11,811
  • Jul 19, 2008 7:11am Jul 19, 2008 7:11am
Quoting ghous
yeah could be besides note how the weekly is signaling a short with a pin bar with the nose to the north, the short may not be there atall, it all depends on how the first few hours of take off in the London session on Monday. To me this trade is looking less likely then it was yesterday when i first saw the pin on the daily.
Yes that weekly bar doesnt inspire confidence long for me. The only bit of GBP news on Monday that might give direction will be the house price index (Sunday midnight here in the UK). Still, the MPC meeting minutes are due out on Wednesday, so the market might try and price in hawkish sentiment before then.
If it's too good to be true, it probably is.
  • #11,812
  • Jul 19, 2008 7:18am Jul 19, 2008 7:18am
Hi all,
I've noticed that there is a lot of mention of pin bars(pb) on this thread.
Can someone send me the link to an explanation of them plse.
Rgds
Stew
  • #11,813
  • Jul 19, 2008 7:24am Jul 19, 2008 7:24am
Quoting SimonK
Enjoy the movie!
Finished now. Was good.

And your welcome. ...I kind of ranted though. LOL

I once questioned the same thing you did btw.

The point was to be mindful of market noise and that there's logical explanations to it all. Watching those PPZs can help a lot dude. ...Ignore all the crap until you hit one. LOL
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #11,814
  • Jul 19, 2008 9:13am Jul 19, 2008 9:13am
Quoting stewrigh
Hi all,
I've noticed that there is a lot of mention of pin bars(pb) on this thread.
Can someone send me the link to an explanation of them plse.
Rgds
Stew
Hi Stewrigh,

The first few pages of this thread are golden. You will not regret reading from Post 1 . Read all of James16s posts at the very least. It won't take long to find the first mention of pins. It's only a handful of pages in.

....By then you won't want to stop reading the rest anyway! Your soul will be sold!!!

I know you want an exact link. But really, it's really worth finding it the good way.

.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #11,815
  • Jul 19, 2008 10:26am Jul 19, 2008 10:26am
Ok here are a few more setups worth considering, these are setups on daily and above only...

setup 1)

AUD/CHF dual pin bar setup on the daily...(if you trade it)

http://i81.photobucket.com/albums/j2...us/acdaily.gif

ok so what's so interesting here? two consecutive pin bars on the daily chart telling us all that the price is not being able to penetrate 0.99-0.9920 region. as it is price has been squeezed into a triangle and the price is ranging between trendlines and PPZs. what's best abt this setup in my opinion is that even if the price is rejected by the support line a trade early on Monday will still give you a few pips or if you're an aggressive trader you might get out with a breakeven i.e there is space avaiable for your trade to breath some air, anf ofcaorse if the triangle breaks we enjoy the ride down...


setup 2) AUD/USD pin bar on the weekly:

http://i81.photobucket.com/albums/j2...auweekly-1.gif

it can clearly be seen that the price is caught up ina nice rising wedge and is signaling a bearish reversal the question is when will the wedge breakout, the answer might just have been given, this last week Pin touching the resistance line and rebounding superbly may be a great indication of a bearish move.


setup 3)

NZD/USD weekly pin bar:

http://i81.photobucket.com/albums/j2...nuweekly-1.gif

ok another nice setup in my opinion, the last bearish run has just given another indication of it's continuation as the 0.76 region holds the price! as it is a trade off the weekly and since the right eye has yet to be formed (if it does) one has to wait for a bearish confirmation on a lower tf such as the daily which might be a strong move to coincide with this lovely pin

Enjoy...

Regards,
Ghous
I believe . . .
  • #11,816
  • Jul 19, 2008 11:47am Jul 19, 2008 11:47am
Ghous, i too have been eyeing that aud/usd wkly and nzd/usd wkly with similar sentiments.

I didn't see the aud/chf, thanks for posting that chart. One can clearly see the clutter of resistance that it is coming into and what appears to be weakness of follow thru.
  • #11,817
  • Jul 19, 2008 12:42pm Jul 19, 2008 12:42pm
thx ghous for sharing those nice pin bars.
  • #11,818
  • Jul 19, 2008 12:56pm Jul 19, 2008 12:56pm
Quoting PB_lover
thx ghous for sharing those nice pin bars.
you're most welcome!
I believe . . .
  • #11,819
  • Jul 19, 2008 2:46pm Jul 19, 2008 2:46pm
Quoting ghous
Ok here are a few more setups worth considering, these are setups on daily and above only...

setup 1)

AUD/CHF dual pin bar setup on the daily...(if you trade it)

http://i81.photobucket.com/albums/j2...us/acdaily.gif

ok so what's so interesting here? two consecutive pin bars on the daily chart telling us all that the price is not being able to penetrate 0.99-0.9920 region. as it is price has been squeezed into a triangle and the price is ranging between trendlines and PPZs. what's best abt this setup in my opinion is that even if the price is rejected by the support line a trade early on Monday will still give you a few pips or if you're an aggressive trader you might get out with a breakeven i.e there is space avaiable for your trade to breath some air, anf ofcaorse if the triangle breaks we enjoy the ride down...


setup 2) AUD/USD pin bar on the weekly:

http://i81.photobucket.com/albums/j2...auweekly-1.gif

it can clearly be seen that the price is caught up ina nice rising wedge and is signaling a bearish reversal the question is when will the wedge breakout, the answer might just have been given, this last week Pin touching the resistance line and rebounding superbly may be a great indication of a bearish move.


setup 3)

NZD/USD weekly pin bar:

http://i81.photobucket.com/albums/j2...nuweekly-1.gif

ok another nice setup in my opinion, the last bearish run has just given another indication of it's continuation as the 0.76 region holds the price! as it is a trade off the weekly and since the right eye has yet to be formed (if it does) one has to wait for a bearish confirmation on a lower tf such as the daily which might be a strong move to coincide with this lovely pin

Enjoy...

Regards,
Ghous
Looks like USD gona be on t rise again!!

sonic
  • #11,820
  • Jul 20, 2008 12:24am Jul 20, 2008 12:24am
the monthly chart seems to give strength to the long case with a 2 bar pin off previous support imho, but not sure how much weight this may carry as i didn't receive any feedback from the my previous post attached. it may not have been to clear. (tend to do that a bit.)
Quoting cliffd18
as i trade off the daily charts
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