Attachments: GBP/CHF and USD/CHF

GBP/CHF and USD/CHF

#241
Jun 27, 2008 1:31pm Jun 27, 2008 1:31pm

peaches
Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Trader | 3,461 Posts

Quoting sarchin

Disliked

peaches

you seem to have a pretty good handle on the technicals, do you do pretty good in your trading? I'm thinking more downside next week, but I was reading this article about on of the reasons the usd gains during the asian session. what do you think?

http://www.reutersfxhub.com/fxhub/bl...dollar_selling

Ignored

hi sarchin,

well my account grows since 3 month. 15 Month before, i lose. i tried different systems, and have found hussins daily candle thread, learned candlestick pattern, and only traded the daily. also added a few well known indicators, see chart.

Its third time usd tried to break 1,58 - 1,5850, which represent
a lot of dollar weaknis. I think eur/usd might go to 1,62, which is top (for me). Here i differ from a lot of senior traders here in the board,
which see eur/usd 2,0 longterm.

fundamental i read bloomberg.com

Also please have a look for longterm outlook
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1227

and carry trade unwinding:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1232
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...2&postcount=12

I just took a look into the past, and the behavior of yen-crosses, gold, GBPUSD, DJI, VIX, and TNX. And I compared it with the priceaction and status of my indicators now.

Big drop aproaching IMHO.

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#242
Jun 27, 2008 2:20pm Jun 27, 2008 2:20pm

sarchin
| Joined Mar 2008 | Status: Trader | 69 Posts

I agree there's a drop coming, everyone has been calling 108 on the usd/jpy and now that it's been broken along with all the bad economic fundamentals in the us she's gotta go down.

on the eur/usd I hear there's a couple do-not-touch barrier options at 1.58 with 15-20 million dollar payouts if broken so it'll be tough to get through but if the ecb raises interest rates on july 3 it could happen, after that who knows the limit? if it doesn't get broken I see the money going into either the pound or the swissy.

this oil thing is running up way to fast, gotta be careful

#243
Jun 27, 2008 2:52pm Jun 27, 2008 2:52pm

peaches
Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Trader | 3,461 Posts

Quoting sarchin

Disliked

I agree there's a drop coming, everyone has been calling 108 on the usd/jpy and now that it's been broken along with all the bad economic fundamentals in the us she's gotta go down.

on the eur/usd I hear there's a couple do-not-touch barrier options at 1.58 with 15-20 million dollar payouts if broken so it'll be tough to get through but if the ecb raises interest rates on july 3 it could happen, after that who knows the limit? if it doesn't get broken I see the money going into either the pound or the swissy.

this oil thing is running up way to fast, gotta be careful

Ignored

well, 1,5791 on my charts, so the 15-20 mio $ payout had a bit of a luck

But in honest: 15-20 mio are NOTHING in the big ocean forex. This week has been sold 50 BILLION USD treasury, and i haven´t noticed anything in priceaction. The big market mover was Federal Funds Rate in my opinion.

nice:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...5M&refer=rates

expecting weekend gaps on monday to the downside

#244
Jun 27, 2008 3:19pm Jun 27, 2008 3:19pm

sarchin
| Joined Mar 2008 | Status: Trader | 69 Posts

article on thomsons says the seller of the option was trying to break the barrier so he didn't have to pay out, must be getting worried about the euro interest rate hike next week. I'm not sure how it'll play out when sydney opens right off, but I'll be watching sunday night at 5. I definitely see more downside as the us has lost some serious credibility and momentum.

what do you think about the gbp/chf and the eur/chf though, the eur/chf took a nice drop and it could go back up dragging the pound and the dollar up with it

good luck next week everyone

#245
Jun 27, 2008 3:50pm Jun 27, 2008 3:50pm

peaches
Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Trader | 3,461 Posts

Quoting sarchin

Disliked

article on thomsons says the seller of the option was trying to break the barrier so he didn't have to pay out, must be getting worried about the euro interest rate hike next week. I'm not sure how it'll play out when sydney opens right off, but I'll be watching sunday night at 5. I definitely see more downside as the us has lost some serious credibility and momentum.

what do you think about the gbp/chf and the eur/chf though, the eur/chf took a nice drop and it could go back up dragging the pound and the dollar up with it

good luck next week everyone

Ignored

i give you my gbp/chf chart whitch is pretty self-explanatory...
its only what i see from chart, so IMHO.

Havent had a look on eur/chf for a few days, so pretty interesting development:

Please lern candlestick pattern. you only need for the beginning 6-8 pattern, the most importend. They are spyed by eye after a few days training.

So, we have the end of month, i´ll give you the monthly candle and the link to americanbulls.

http://www.candlesticker.com/Bearish.asp

A hint: its a bearish pattern with medium (from my experiance high) relaiabilty....

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#246
Jun 27, 2008 4:07pm Jun 27, 2008 4:07pm

sarchin
| Joined Mar 2008 | Status: Trader | 69 Posts

thank you peaches

I see the downtrend to the bottom of the channel, you don't think the interest rate hike will reverse the direction? it's a tough call for me, euro interest rate hike is priced in so it'll depend on the statement and eurozone has tough economics. I'm 50/50

#247
Jun 27, 2008 4:19pm Jun 27, 2008 4:19pm

de123
Joined Sep 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,272 Posts

monthy chart is looking like a bull one...also 4h and 3h 2,..and i like ur explanation sarchin it matches my own...wheather the hike or not this will move next week... looks like first up before or if down...nice weekend...

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its just money

#248
Jun 27, 2008 4:25pm Jun 27, 2008 4:25pm

peaches
Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Trader | 3,461 Posts

thats the problem with candlesticks, they are often disfunctioned, by the news.

From my experiance i was a lot suprised, when news forecast was WRONG.

So candlestick rules over news. In this case, it might be able eur/chf is shooting up a lot for one week, BUT monthly candle pattern WILL play out bearish till end of july.

IMHO.

good night.

#249
Jun 27, 2008 4:33pm Jun 27, 2008 4:33pm

peaches
Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Trader | 3,461 Posts

a last one: will history repeat ?

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#250
Jun 27, 2008 4:57pm Jun 27, 2008 4:57pm

de123
Joined Sep 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,272 Posts

Quoting peaches

Disliked

a last one: will history repeat ?

Ignored

maybe a lot up...

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its just money

#251
Jun 28, 2008 4:14am Jun 28, 2008 4:14am

B@by trader
| Joined Jan 2008 | Status: Trader | 730 Posts

Quoting peaches

Disliked

trendline already broken (red dashed), stoch crossing down,
macd just starting his bearish cycle.

I´ve learned not to trade by heart. Just charts. And patience.

Wish you a lot green pips next week.

Ignored

thts why im not in trade,lol
wish you green pips too

#252
Jun 29, 2008 9:18am Jun 29, 2008 9:18am

peaches
Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Trader | 3,461 Posts

Quoting de123

Disliked

maybe a lot up...

Ignored

Thank you for pointing my eye on the yellow trendline.
It acted during march and april as resistance, since then
its support. But your bull gains are limited to the weekly trendline,
which is also tough support.

I think in these times people will invest their money in "safe"
currencys like CAD, CHF and gold. Lets see...

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#253
Jun 29, 2008 12:37pm Jun 29, 2008 12:37pm

Bobokus
| Commercial User | Joined Oct 2006 | 2,560 Posts

Quoting B@by trader

Disliked

thts why im not in trade,lol
wish you green pips too

Ignored

I dont normally follow or trade this pair but this is what I see in it from a technical standpoint. From the Daily its weak and following the dollar, The last retracement into this downtrend failed to break long from the last leg of the downtrend signaling farther weakness. Selling the rally's is still the way to go, unless something changes fundamentally that can reverse the pressure but will take quite an accomplishment at this point. The Swissy like the Dollar cant buy a friend right now, and as long as the Euro is showing strength the Swissy and the Dollar are both going to suffer and Bernanke put any hopes of a dollar rally to rest last week so the Swissy is going to suffer as well.
From the 1 hour me personally I would continue selling the rally's from previous resistance levels. If there is going to be any kind of reversal it will appear on the 1 hour first as a break from the current trending pattern (candle opening above the Intraday long level) and youll see Intraday levels show support from the previous day then a subsequent break of the previous days high. In the event you see the previous days high break dont jump on it and expect to ride it out to Intraday extension levels treat it as a scalp until you see a waveform after a break of the high show support hold an a bounce.The trend is down.

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#254
Jun 29, 2008 2:39pm Jun 29, 2008 2:39pm

goldeneagle
| Joined Jun 2008 | Status: Trader | 1 Post

I started watching this pair just awhile ago. 91 pips on first trade of 16:00 candle 6/25. Brake of 2.0404 set stop entry @ 2.0399 short exit 2.0219 for 180. My set-up is kiss. I wonder sometimes how some of you read your charts. Can't see the candles with all that stuff.
Since i started doing forex i see some of the same stuff. From stock&option traders all these indicators. I think that just using s/r lines, reading candles with market action. And going for appropiate pip goals you can do well. Just reading candles and seeing where it is in relation to s/r lines. I have done well so far on this pair. 2 weeks Though i did put up 2 trendlines because of the flag pattern.

just my 2 cents

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