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GBP/CHF and USD/CHF

  • #221
  • Jun 26, 2008 3:26pm Jun 26, 2008 3:26pm
june 9th low at 1.0147 area is possible.
  • #222
  • Jun 26, 2008 3:34pm Jun 26, 2008 3:34pm
new 4 hour candle shows a possible retrace coming sometime in the next 4 hours. 1 candle mom showing it. cannot guarantee it, of course, but profit taking is logical.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usd chf 4 hour 2.gif Size: 29 KB
  • #223
  • Jun 26, 2008 3:37pm Jun 26, 2008 3:37pm
usd/cad already showing some usd buying.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usd cad daily.gif Size: 26 KB
  • #224
  • Jun 26, 2008 3:38pm Jun 26, 2008 3:38pm
Quoting ovaforty
You talking about usd/chf?
guys, am i talking to a wall ?

Its a three black (bearish) crows pattern on the daily. I forecastet it 24 h ago, see post 174 and 210. Stochachstics just beginning crossing and macd on the daily match. Its simple.

Resistence for usd/chf on my chart is 1,01951. But resitences exist, to be broken

Lets see, what americanbulls write about this pattern:

Definition:

The Bearish Three Black Crows Pattern is indicative of a strong reversal during an uptrend. It consists of three long black candlesticks, which look like a stair stepping downward. The opening price of each day is higher (thats not perfect here) than the previous day's closing price suggesting a move to a new short term low.

Explanation: The Bearish Three Black Crows Pattern is indicative of the fact that the market has been at a high price for too long and the market may be approaching a top or is already at the top. A decisive downward move is reflected by the first black candlestick. The next two days show further decline in prices due to profit taking. Bullish mood of the market cannot be sustained anymore.


Important Factors:
The opening prices of the second and third days can be anywhere within the previous day's body. However, it is better to see the opening prices below the middle of the previous day's body.
If the black candlesticks are very extended, one should be cautious about an oversold market.
The reliability of this pattern is very high, but still a confirmation in the form of a black candlestick with a lower close or a gap-down is suggested.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #225
  • Jun 26, 2008 3:41pm Jun 26, 2008 3:41pm
Quoting peaches
guys, am i talking to a wall ?

Its a three black (bearish) crows pattern on the daily. I forecastet it 24 h ago, see post 174 and 210. Stochachstics just beginning crossing and macd on the daily match. Its simple.

Resistence for usd/chf on my chart is 1,01951. But resitences exist, to be broken

Lets see, what americanbulls write about this pattern:

Definition:

The Bearish Three Black Crows Pattern is indicative of a strong reversal during an uptrend. It consists of three long black candlesticks, which look like a stair stepping downward. The opening price of each day is higher (thats not perfect here) than the previous day's closing price suggesting a move to a new short term low.

Explanation: The Bearish Three Black Crows Pattern is indicative of the fact that the market has been at a high price for too long and the market may be approaching a top or is already at the top. A decisive downward move is reflected by the first black candlestick. The next two days show further decline in prices due to profit taking. Bullish mood of the market cannot be sustained anymore.


Important Factors:
The opening prices of the second and third days can be anywhere within the previous day's body. However, it is better to see the opening prices below the middle of the previous day's body.
If the black candlesticks are very extended, one should be cautious about an oversold market.
The reliability of this pattern is very high, but still a confirmation in the form of a black candlestick with a lower close or a gap-down is suggested.
my post agrees with your post.
  • #226
  • Jun 26, 2008 3:45pm Jun 26, 2008 3:45pm
Quoting ovaforty
my post agrees with your post.
thanks ovaforty, channel break would match with carry-trade unwinding.

OT: On gbp/jpy we have a daily bearish engulfing pattern. Its highly reliable.
  • #227
  • Jun 26, 2008 3:47pm Jun 26, 2008 3:47pm
peaches,
you just quoted downside to 1.0195, and i just posted downside to 1.0145. We are on the same page.
  • #228
  • Jun 26, 2008 4:03pm Jun 26, 2008 4:03pm
as far as geppy, I have long positions from 210 since about june 9th and i covered them short from 213. All stop losses are in positive territory, so no risk of loss. I just bought geppy again with a small tester position and a +1 stop loss. to gain a few pips on the profit taking.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: geppy 4 hour 5.gif Size: 31 KB
  • #229
  • Jun 26, 2008 4:06pm Jun 26, 2008 4:06pm
my little tester long got stopped out at +1 pip but after i collected the swap.
  • #230
  • Jun 26, 2008 4:15pm Jun 26, 2008 4:15pm
during asia there might be 50 % fibo retraces of the last moves, or maybe ranging where we are. But on start london or new york trend resumes
down. for geppy macd starts down, stochachstics is just startet a little bit shy down, AND we have the pattern. It´s all daily. If downtrend isn´t over at mondays close new york and starts again on tuesday london, i think there is realy something big cooking. also look for weekend gab.
  • #231
  • Jun 26, 2008 4:19pm Jun 26, 2008 4:19pm
Quoting peaches
during asia there might be 50 % fibo retraces of the last moves, or maybe ranging where we are. But on start london or new york trend resumes
down. for geppy macd starts down, stochachstics is just startet a little bit shy down, AND we have the pattern. It´s all daily. If downtrend isn´t over at mondays close new york and starts again on tuesday london, i think there is realy something big cooking. also look for weekend gab.
end of month and end of quarter.

I will buy any yen carry pairs after the dust setlles down. 3 month uptrend is in force, until that ends.
  • #232
  • Jun 26, 2008 4:22pm Jun 26, 2008 4:22pm
As you can see in my first picture price is bouncing around major support levels and its in a pennant....Bouncing between trendlines...

Daily Chart
Attached Image


1 hour chart...Overall is bearish price hit its intraday targets of yesterday...
Though we are at a 50 percent fibb from price 2.0010 to price 2.0657...Pluss we did get a bounce from the downtrend short so keep this factors in mind overall look is bearish...

Attached Image
  • #233
  • Jun 26, 2008 4:33pm Jun 26, 2008 4:33pm
Quoting ovaforty
end of month and end of quarter.

I will buy any yen carry pairs after the dust setlles down. 3 month uptrend is in force, until that ends.
agree, i really see a trend change theses days/next week. Example. We have a very large bearish engulfing for aud/jpy. If i switch to the weekly with a second bearish candle for tomorrow in mind, this will give us a perfect doji on the weekly for this pair.

Only thinking a lot, if we see lower lows. See long-term view at

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1227

I mean BIG lower lows.

Hussin will be back this weekend, his view of things also is very importend for me.

Have to go to bed now, nighty.
  • #234
  • Jun 27, 2008 12:39am Jun 27, 2008 12:39am
today is a very interesting day. a lot of crosses at the channel border. Will they break trough, or reverse rangeing? Don`t think so.

we have seen over asia the retrace for usdchf and gbpchf to the back of the old trendline (light blue).

lets see if they retrace more or reverse and break channel downside. all to you lot green pips.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf.gif Size: 19 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpchf.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #235
  • Jun 27, 2008 5:46am Jun 27, 2008 5:46am
Quoting peaches
today is a very interesting day. a lot of crosses at the channel border. Will they break trough, or reverse rangeing? Don`t think so.

we have seen over asia the retrace for usdchf and gbpchf to the back of the old trendline (light blue).

lets see if they retrace more or reverse and break channel downside. all to you lot green pips.
Hellooooooooooo , Guys What for today ??? more down or reversre ???
  • #236
  • Jun 27, 2008 5:57am Jun 27, 2008 5:57am
please see posts 201 and 224 for my point of view.

We see a small retrace at the beginning of new york session, but
later on big drops.

look at the dow jones. Look for daily trend, have a look at the last very healthy bearish candle.

Does it look good for the USD ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dow.gif Size: 13 KB
  • #237
  • Jun 27, 2008 11:02am Jun 27, 2008 11:02am
Bye traders,good weekend to all.I consider this week enough for this pair.My heart say gbp/chf gonna make new high but just wait some gap and maybe weekly analysisKeep posting
  • #238
  • Jun 27, 2008 12:39pm Jun 27, 2008 12:39pm
if price goes below black line, we will have a lower low.

I´m realy exited if channel-line will be broken next
week, this would mean a drop below parity.

I should not trade near the channel-line because of a
rejection. a sell limit order below 1,01 might be wise.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #239
  • Jun 27, 2008 12:44pm Jun 27, 2008 12:44pm
Quoting B@by trader
Bye traders,good weekend to all.I consider this week enough for this pair.My heart say gbp/chf gonna make new high but just wait some gap and maybe weekly analysisKeep posting
trendline already broken (red dashed), stoch crossing down,
macd just starting his bearish cycle.

I´ve learned not to trade by heart. Just charts. And patience.

Wish you a lot green pips next week.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpchf.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #240
  • Jun 27, 2008 12:54pm Jun 27, 2008 12:54pm
peaches

you seem to have a pretty good handle on the technicals, do you do pretty good in your trading? I'm thinking more downside next week, but I was reading this article about on of the reasons the usd gains during the asian session. what do you think?

http://www.reutersfxhub.com/fxhub/bl...dollar_selling
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