Yes, the long term trend is still upward, judging from USD/JPY is still hovering above the Kumo of Ichimoku and above the Kijyun-line, which is 105.82. But we may be in a transitional period at this moment, and it may be reversing its course decisively as the major trend line on a daily chart was already broken. As you said, around 105.65 could be a support and it may bounce off a bit, but since it is below the Kijyun line, it is more likely that the pair will try heading lower to, say, around 104.96 which is 61.8% retracement from the recent highest point, 108.58 (around 102.73 is 100%). 102.72 can probably play a strong support as you can see a double bottom pattern formed around the price zone. Also note that Stochastic is pointing lower, and there is still much room to go below
Below is the chart that I'm looking at. Anyone, any thoughts?
DislikedLong term trend is still up. 50% retracement comes in around 105.65 and I think we still may see price around that level today or early next week. ISM and NFP next week so that may push the pair up or down. TBD. Then I will look for new direction. If I had to take a guess right now I would say we go back up. I think Trichet is full of it and the ECB will not raise rates. This will cause EURUSD to go down and USDJPY to go back up. Of course this is purely speculation so take it with a grain of salt.Ignored