USD/JPY Discussion | Page 473 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

USD/JPY

Similar Threads

USD/JPY Discussion 12 replies

NZD/JPY Discussion 12 replies

long eur/jpy, gbp/jpy, usd/jpy 11 replies

EUR/USD Bollinger Band Discussion 3 replies

Suidster's GBP/JPY Discussion 19 replies

Attachments: USD/JPY Discussion
Exit Attachments

USD/JPY Discussion

  • #9,441
  • Jun 27, 2008 10:18pm Jun 27, 2008 10:18pm
Yes, the long term trend is still upward, judging from USD/JPY is still hovering above the Kumo of Ichimoku and above the Kijyun-line, which is 105.82. But we may be in a transitional period at this moment, and it may be reversing its course decisively as the major trend line on a daily chart was already broken. As you said, around 105.65 could be a support and it may bounce off a bit, but since it is below the Kijyun line, it is more likely that the pair will try heading lower to, say, around 104.96 which is 61.8% retracement from the recent highest point, 108.58 (around 102.73 is 100%). 102.72 can probably play a strong support as you can see a double bottom pattern formed around the price zone. Also note that Stochastic is pointing lower, and there is still much room to go below

Quoting TheDirtySerb
Long term trend is still up. 50% retracement comes in around 105.65 and I think we still may see price around that level today or early next week. ISM and NFP next week so that may push the pair up or down. TBD. Then I will look for new direction. If I had to take a guess right now I would say we go back up. I think Trichet is full of it and the ECB will not raise rates. This will cause EURUSD to go down and USDJPY to go back up. Of course this is purely speculation so take it with a grain of salt.
Below is the chart that I'm looking at. Anyone, any thoughts?

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1214622877
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy628.png Size: 29 KB
  • #9,442
  • Jun 28, 2008 1:57am Jun 28, 2008 1:57am
Here my UJ. Juz share out some analysis.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ 28June08 Daily.jpg Size: 139 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ 28June08 H4.jpg Size: 173 KB
  • #9,443
  • Jun 28, 2008 8:05am Jun 28, 2008 8:05am
Some more notes based on my Ichimoku analysis:

1. The 4H last candle is now completely below the Tenkan-line, suggesting that USD/JPY may have turned its direction of the trend from upward to downward, although no one knows if that is really the case at this moment.

2. It has not touched the Kijyun-line, 105.82 yet as of the Friday's close. So it may retest it in the coming Tokyo session on Monday if it can be broken lower or can be a strong support. The Kinjyun line on a daily chart is often regarded as the last fort for the bulls before it starts heading lower decisively.

3. Since the Tenkan-line is still above the Kijyn-line and the Kumo/Cloud, you could say that the trend is still upward. In this case, the pair could bounce off the Kijyun-line, and go back upward.

That said, I would be more cautious about making an entry at this price level as the pair is close to the one of the most critical turning points, the Kijyun-line on the daily chart.

If someone asks me if I'm bearish or bullish, I would say that I might be on the bearish side, thought I'm not sticking only to this view.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1214657669
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy628ichimoku.png Size: 31 KB
  • #9,444
  • Jun 28, 2008 8:38am Jun 28, 2008 8:38am
Well the fed is here to prevent a great depression lets see if they can, I still have faith. With regards to the green back...well keeping the market liquid will require lots of ink and paper which will drive the dollar down and oil to 160 by year end, living just north of the border it will be interesting to see how it affects us. Devaluing the green back will be necessary to keep the market afloat am I wrong? Just how bad it will get is anyones guess, you have to admit peeps working in the fed are smart people, and if the market crash they should be charged with treason along with the greedy bankers who built their books around these fricken mortgages . Sometimes I think this is the plan, cause a depression then big money can come and scoop everything thing up, with the fed there to help it makes it even easier, bear sterns will be 100$ a share in 5 years watch
  • #9,445
  • Jun 28, 2008 10:40am Jun 28, 2008 10:40am
Quoting c-note
price did hit 105.87 level and had a small bounce--divergence between price and rsi on 2hr 1hr and 30 min time frames-could just be a continuation pattern-I look for price to re-test the low but since the market is closed that's just a guess -anything can happen over weekend. break past 105.87 then 105.45 support next. levels based on price action -not fibs. the major support for down side is 102.60 level

I particularly see no divergence in RSI. Both H4 and Daily. Daily, trend is still up but the uptrend line is about to be broken.

H4 representing the recent channeling down and the more vertical channel during the last two days.

In H4 price is channeling very vertically. Lets see what happens when price touches that upper trendline. If price touches it and get pushed down than it could be heading to at least daily S2.

One other interesting factor, I am getting my LTL of that uptrend converging with S1. So if it actually breaks that level consistently than we should be getting a reversal pattern confirmation.

Right now, Bulls are fighting Bears. Tuff battle.

Cheer to all.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usd_jpy_h4_28_06_2008_channel_down_rsi.gif Size: 21 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usd_jpy_d1_28_06_2008_channel_up_rsi.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #9,446
  • Jun 29, 2008 8:52am Jun 29, 2008 8:52am
Quoting steelhead
fair enough. I do have a hidden agenda. and it is this


If the Sonics are really leaving Seattle can they take the Mariners with them?

the city of Seattle will drop all there lawsuits against Sonics owner Clay Bennett if he takes the Mariners to OKC with him.


That is my hidden agenda. Am i accomplishing that?
silly as usual..........you know something, i have never read any useful replay from your side...pls ..get yourself some help...
pip and run ....
  • #9,447
  • Jun 29, 2008 8:59am Jun 29, 2008 8:59am
i think when eurusd down usdjpy,gbpjpy,eurjpy up and gbpusd down
what are you think?
right or wrong?
  • #9,448
  • Jun 29, 2008 2:31pm Jun 29, 2008 2:31pm
Let's see what happens when the markets open up in a few hours.
"I spilled spot remover on my dog. He's gone now." - Steven Wright
  • #9,449
  • Jun 29, 2008 4:55pm Jun 29, 2008 4:55pm
What most important NEWS moving EUR/USD/JPY this month? So can anybody tell me...Last month show most to EUR news better then others.
What prediction about that?
  • #9,450
  • Jun 29, 2008 5:07pm Jun 29, 2008 5:07pm
Quoting man_taz04
What most important NEWS moving EUR/USD/JPY this month? So can anybody tell me...Last month show most to EUR news better then others.
What prediction about that?
One thing I did notice is that the Non-Farm Payroll is a day early, on Thursday instead of Friday, due to the Holiday for the USA......
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #9,451
  • Jun 29, 2008 5:43pm Jun 29, 2008 5:43pm
Quoting dove_alliance
One thing I did notice is that the Non-Farm Payroll is a day early, on Thursday instead of Friday, due to the Holiday for the USA......
Dove,

After using the Bolinger Bands I was just now able to get 12 pips on USD/JPY (in my demo account). I'm watching the 5M, the 10M, the 20M and 30M. True to form, it works pretty good. Neat-o!

Bristol
"I spilled spot remover on my dog. He's gone now." - Steven Wright
  • #9,452
  • Jun 29, 2008 5:47pm Jun 29, 2008 5:47pm
Quoting bristolxyz
Dove,

After using the Bolinger Bands I was just now able to get 12 pips on USD/JPY (in my demo account). I'm watching the 5M, the 10M, the 20M and 30M. True to form, it works pretty good. Neat-o!

Bristol
Good Job - It looks like its getting ready to go back up again tonight ..... we will see.
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #9,453
  • Jun 29, 2008 6:27pm Jun 29, 2008 6:27pm
I won't be around tonight good friend Dove. I will look for your posts in the morning. Good luck trading to you and to all. Cheers

Quoting dove_alliance
Good Job - It looks like its getting ready to go back up again tonight ..... we will see.
  • #9,454
  • Jun 29, 2008 6:44pm Jun 29, 2008 6:44pm
my pivot at 106.39 but not sure if it is exact... but we are still trading below it... target 106.62
  • #9,455
  • Jun 29, 2008 6:57pm Jun 29, 2008 6:57pm
I am a bit hesitant to take a long trade when the daily/weekly is starting a new leg down, however there is a cluster support around 105.56 area if support holds we could have a leg up however with this week's us data not looking so hot I am not to sure how far this small retracement will go up and am pretty certain the support level will buckle under the weight of the slack us data. I am patiently waiting for a retracement up (currently in progress) and picking my top around 106.50/60 area for my short. Of course its not concrete if anything changes Ill change my pending short entry.
  • #9,456
  • Jun 29, 2008 7:04pm Jun 29, 2008 7:04pm
The 2 hour is in consolidation for the move up and once it is in position it will then take off......
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #9,457
  • Edited 9:25pm Jun 29, 2008 7:38pm | Edited 9:25pm
Dove,

Do you use the default settings for MACD and Bollinger?

Bristol
"I spilled spot remover on my dog. He's gone now." - Steven Wright
  • #9,458
  • Jun 29, 2008 9:03pm Jun 29, 2008 9:03pm
Quoting bristolxyz
Dove,

Do you use the default settings for MACD and Bolinger?

Bristol
Hello Bristol - I do not use a MACD but instead the Slow_K and with the settings at 20, 5, 5....... The Bollinger I have set at 15 for lower charts up to the 10 minute and from the 10 minute on up the setting is 12.
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #9,459
  • Jun 29, 2008 9:30pm Jun 29, 2008 9:30pm
The demand for USD during the Tokyo fix today was not as strong as expected. It was even unable to hold above the pivot. It is likely that the pair will retest the previous day low later, possibly in the London session, which is close to the Kijyun-line on the daily chart.
  • #9,460
  • Jun 29, 2008 9:32pm Jun 29, 2008 9:32pm
Quoting naminori
The demand for USD during the Tokyo fix today was not as strong as expected. It was even unable to hold above the pivot. It is likely that the pair will retest the previous day low later, possibly in the London session, which is close to the Kijyun-line on the daily chart.
The EUR tested its high and failed....... That tells me the YEN is going up and the EUR is going down.....
The Dove - Forex Trainer
50 traders viewing now