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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #72,781
  • Jun 26, 2008 12:02pm Jun 26, 2008 12:02pm
Quoting Turveyd
Oil is the Worlds problem not just the USA's, maybe USA could suffer worse but this is only going to get worse, but shouldn't effect Forex too much as it's on both sides of the equations.

Got to go to a client bow out -£50 100pips total or leave it on, hmmmmmmmmmmm

just started to turn down by my system to, but likely just chop around, hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm



Live to fight another day, or risk it and maybe make some good £££'s.

Can't decide, someone decide for me pls

but it is more relevant to the U.S. (and therefore the dollar), due to oil being priced in dollars. of course oil remains the world's problem. however, there has been an undeniable link from the movement in the price of crude oil and the value of the dollar. the impact of high oil prices has been slightly cushioned from the eurozone consumers by their appreciating currency in the past 12 months. similarly, there is also an undeniable link between the price of crude and the value of the S&P.
  • #72,782
  • Jun 26, 2008 12:04pm Jun 26, 2008 12:04pm
I must remember :-

BET or Hold against the trend and expect to get slaughtered!!!
BET or Hold against the trend and expect to get slaughtered!!!
BET or Hold against the trend and expect to get slaughtered!!!
BET or Hold against the trend and expect to get slaughtered!!!
BET or Hold against the trend and expect to get slaughtered!!!
BET or Hold against the trend and expect to get slaughtered!!!
BET or Hold against the trend and expect to get slaughtered!!!
BET or Hold against the trend and expect to get slaughtered!!!
BET or Hold against the trend and expect to get slaughtered!!!
BET or Hold against the trend and expect to get slaughtered!!!
BET or Hold against the trend and expect to get slaughtered!!!
BET or Hold against the trend and expect to get slaughtered!!!
BET or Hold against the trend and expect to get slaughtered!!!
BET or Hold against the trend and expect to get slaughtered!!!
BET or Hold against the trend and expect to get slaughtered!!!
BET or Hold against the trend and expect to get slaughtered!!!
BET or Hold against the trend and expect to get slaughtered!!!
BET or Hold against the trend and expect to get slaughtered!!!
BET or Hold against the trend and expect to get slaughtered!!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #72,783
  • Jun 26, 2008 12:04pm Jun 26, 2008 12:04pm
Quoting Turveyd
I must remember :-

BET or Hold against the trend and expect to get slaughtered!!!
BET or Hold against the trend and expect to get slaughtered!!!
BET or Hold against the trend and expect to get slaughtered!!!
BET or Hold against the trend and expect to get slaughtered!!!
BET or Hold against the trend and expect to get slaughtered!!!
BET or Hold against the trend and expect to get slaughtered!!!
BET or Hold against the trend and expect to get slaughtered!!!
BET or Hold against the trend and expect to get slaughtered!!!
BET or Hold against the trend and expect to get slaughtered!!!
BET or Hold against the trend and expect to get slaughtered!!!
BET or Hold against the trend and expect to get slaughtered!!!
BET or Hold against the trend and expect to get slaughtered!!!
BET or Hold against the trend and expect to get slaughtered!!!
BET or Hold against the trend and expect to get slaughtered!!!
BET or Hold against the trend and expect to get slaughtered!!!
BET or Hold against the trend and expect to get slaughtered!!!
BET or Hold against the trend and expect to get slaughtered!!!
BET or Hold against the trend and expect to get slaughtered!!!
BET or Hold against the trend and expect to get slaughtered!!!
have some confidence.
  • #72,784
  • Jun 26, 2008 12:08pm Jun 26, 2008 12:08pm
Quoting Turveyd
Oil is the Worlds problem not just the USA's, maybe USA could suffer worse but this is only going to get worse, but shouldn't effect Forex too much as it's on both sides of the equations.

Got to go to a client bow out -£50 100pips total or leave it on, hmmmmmmmmmmm

just started to turn down by my system to, but likely just chop around, hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm



Live to fight another day, or risk it and maybe make some good £££'s.

Can't decide, someone decide for me pls
My yankee friends make me laugh when they talk about 'our oil'

If they pump a barrel of oil up in alaska or offshore USA, do they think the oil company will sell it cut price to US refiners at $50 and they will then pass the savings on despite world refined product prices being much higher, or will the oil company sell it on the global oil market at $130 which will hardly be affected by a few barrels more coming out of the US

If the US was a communist country and could demand that 'our oil' went to 'our gas stations' at a command price then ok, but it's the opposite of that and 'our oil' does not exist in reallity - it's the word's oil because there is a global market

If Alaskan oil were available now I reckon it would take a tiny bit off world oil prices and gasoline would still be 4 dollars
  • #72,785
  • Jun 26, 2008 12:11pm Jun 26, 2008 12:11pm
I have confidence in my system, so when i get stuck on the wrong side of it, I've got no Exit TL position, and great confidence that I'm going to get slaughtered!!!

Won't be the first time or the last I'm sure.


You still short Clouds ???

UJ looking to reverse up here, should drag GBP down
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #72,786
  • Jun 26, 2008 12:14pm Jun 26, 2008 12:14pm
Quoting Turveyd
Looks like a Exhaustion / Stop hunt drop as there seems to be no news to explain is, so logically, they'll trap some short shake out the longs and move up, which should in turn lead to GBP going down.


I was seconds away from taking -£50 on the day, less willing to take -£80

Price action dictates sellers here Euro and GBP, 5mins to decide, favouring chancing it!!

Or not, euro going UP
Here's another TL for GU
Attached Image
  • #72,787
  • Jun 26, 2008 12:15pm Jun 26, 2008 12:15pm
Quoting allserene
My yankee friends make me laugh when they talk about 'our oil'

If they pump a barrel of oil up in alaska or offshore USA, do they think the oil company will sell it cut price to US refiners at $50 and they will then pass the savings on despite world refined product prices being much higher, or will the oil company sell it on the global oil market at $130 which will hardly be affected by a few barrels more coming out of the US

If the US was a communist country and could demand that 'our oil' went to 'our gas stations' at a command price then ok, but it's the opposite of that and 'our oil' does not exist in reallity - it's the word's oil because there is a global market

If Alaskan oil were available now I reckon it would take a tiny bit off world oil prices and gasoline would still be 4 dollars
Looking at the increased profits BP and Shell made last Qtr your likely correct, why should they drop the fuel prices much, they'll just take it to the bank no doubt.

$130 is the global market price, mainly created by speculators like us, it has no bearing on what the oil costs to pump out of the ground, so they've had a 30% pay increase this year so with with no real extra cost.

BP and SHELL likely went Long on the $100 break and kept spending there profits to increase there profits enough money to move the Oil price i bet there.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #72,788
  • Jun 26, 2008 12:20pm Jun 26, 2008 12:20pm
WOW!! been away from my screens for day, what a move up today!! finally at long last some decent price action, still holding from 19601, looking for a minimum of 2.02 now.
Trading is 80% Emotional, 20% Technical
  • #72,789
  • Jun 26, 2008 12:24pm Jun 26, 2008 12:24pm
Quoting Clouds
Here's another TL for GU
Attachment
I'm liking the action, leaving this sucker on and I'm outta here.

I'll be able to check at the client in 1hour ish ugggggggg

Worse case, my account will margin call me at £300 ugggg, hopefully I can still make £100 profit off this mess.


Good luck all!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #72,790
  • Jun 26, 2008 12:25pm Jun 26, 2008 12:25pm
  •  007
  • | Joined Jun 2007 | Status: "Undisciplined Trader" | 49 Posts
Quoting gammase1
there has been a developing strong negative correlation between the Dow/S&P 500 versus cable and eurusd

i think the price of oil is the main driver of this recent trend. when the price of crude goes up, the dollar is sold off (or vice versa), causing concern to U.S. equity investors, as this heightens their inflationary pressure and the risk of stagflation, which is obviously bad for stocks.

i don't see this link breaking until the U.S. falls into a deep recession. therefore, i feel the Fed should raise rates at their next meeting, preceding this move with some hawkish rhetoric in the coming weeks. this will support the dollar and should, in my opinion, reduce commodity prices, which in turn reduces inflationary pressures, lowers long-dated bond yields, thereby making longer term borrowing cheaper for struggling homeowners.

i mainly trade fundamentals with the use of technicals to back up my decisions ie) treadlines + moving averages, meaning my outlook stretches out further than most tech guys.

i am short cable at 1.9780, which i am comfortable running with for next week or so, until the pendulum of market sentiment once again swings against the struggling U.K. economy. however, i will readily admit that the momentum of this upward move has taken me by surprise.
thanks for your explaination. btw, why not shorting any currency against the Yen instead of this pair???
  • #72,791
  • Jun 26, 2008 12:30pm Jun 26, 2008 12:30pm
Actually change of plan, I'm against the trend and I know it, MADNESS trading this badly, so I'm finally made the right decision and closed it out -£70 on the day 15% account draw down.

Normally stupid days cost me 50% of my account so I'm improving



Watch it tank LOL
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #72,792
  • Jun 26, 2008 12:39pm Jun 26, 2008 12:39pm
Quoting Clouds
Here's another TL for GU
Attachment
I like those TL. Waiting for retracment to 50% or 21ma then up again
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp.gif Size: 17 KB
  • #72,793
  • Jun 26, 2008 12:43pm Jun 26, 2008 12:43pm
Quoting 007
thanks for your explaination. btw, why not shorting any currency against the Yen instead of this pair???
Good question, my friend

I used to trade EUR/JPY which had 92% correlation with the S&P 500, making it a great way to hedge my long equity holdings by going short on the pair. However, this relationship has completely broken down in the past 6 weeks, while I was sadly short the pair. Thankfully, I obeyed the S/L.

I am based in the UK and hold a very bearish view on the UK economy, which I believe is facing some serious headwinds in this year and next, through weaker growth, falling home prices, weak consumer confidence, restricted credit, with soaring food and energy prices chucked into the mix. I believe the UK base rate will be kept on hold in the coming months and then hastily cut as growth totally stalls. I think this mix will cause a steady drop in the value of sterling over the next year, as overseas investors demand a bigger risk premium to fund our huge deficit, through the purchase of sterling denominated assets. Countries currently have to hold dollars as their reserve currency. There is no such requirement to keep hold of their sterling.

Obviously the above problems are not limited to the UK, but I believe a bad case scenario has already been priced into the value of the dollar.

In the short term (within the next 10 working days) I think the market will heavily sell the pair when the next set of gloomy UK economic data is released.
  • #72,794
  • Jun 26, 2008 12:51pm Jun 26, 2008 12:51pm
Quoting Turveyd
I have confidence in my system, so when i get stuck on the wrong side of it, I've got no Exit TL position, and great confidence that I'm going to get slaughtered!!!

Won't be the first time or the last I'm sure.


You still short Clouds ???

UJ looking to reverse up here, should drag GBP down
still short, but i dont expect much movement until london.
  • #72,795
  • Edited 1:50pm Jun 26, 2008 1:13pm | Edited 1:50pm
Quoting gammase1
Good question, my friend

I used to trade EUR/JPY which had 92% correlation with the S&P 500, making it a great way to hedge my long equity holdings by going short on the pair. However, this relationship has completely broken down in the past 6 weeks, while I was sadly short the pair. Thankfully, I obeyed the S/L.

I am based in the UK and hold a very bearish view on the UK economy, which I believe is facing some serious headwinds in this year and next, through weaker growth, falling home prices, weak consumer confidence, restricted credit, with soaring food and energy prices chucked into the mix. I believe the UK base rate will be kept on hold in the coming months and then hastily cut as growth totally stalls. I think this mix will cause a steady drop in the value of sterling over the next year, as overseas investors demand a bigger risk premium to fund our huge deficit, through the purchase of sterling denominated assets. Countries currently have to hold dollars as their reserve currency. There is no such requirement to keep hold of their sterling.

Obviously the above problems are not limited to the UK, but I believe a bad case scenario has already been priced into the value of the dollar.

In the short term (within the next 10 working days) I think the market will heavily sell the pair when the next set of gloomy UK economic data is released.
Im in agreement with you Gammase 1-As for the turn down i have been patiently waiting for this top of the 4h channel to do some sideways and final push up movement which will form either a round top or head & shoulders on the MACD 4h (set to 5,13,1). once confirmed on there and i expect that to be either 1am or 5am candles (UK time) for the round top or next week for head & shoulders then it should be all down hill from there with 1.9680ish in sight to begin then 1.9450ish after.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #72,796
  • Jun 26, 2008 1:18pm Jun 26, 2008 1:18pm
Quoting fx local
WOW!! been away from my screens for day, what a move up today!! finally at long last some decent price action, still holding from 19601, looking for a minimum of 2.02 now.
Ashamed of you being away from your screen - what kind of addict are you anyway ?

You are hereby sentenced to stay up all night and play the Asian market
  • #72,797
  • Jun 26, 2008 3:04pm Jun 26, 2008 3:04pm
Quoting allserene
Ashamed of you being away from your screen - what kind of addict are you anyway ?

You are hereby sentenced to stay up all night and play the Asian market
that really will be like watching paint dry...
  • #72,798
  • Jun 26, 2008 3:05pm Jun 26, 2008 3:05pm
Quoting fx local
WOW!! been away from my screens for day, what a move up today!! finally at long last some decent price action, still holding from 19601, looking for a minimum of 2.02 now.

good job buddy ...welldone!!!!
  • #72,799
  • Jun 26, 2008 3:08pm Jun 26, 2008 3:08pm
Quoting allserene
Ashamed of you being away from your screen - what kind of addict are you anyway ?

You are hereby sentenced to stay up all night and play the Asian market
funny enough have done that in past

certainty had my fair share of time eyes on screen, red as hell ready to pop, new strategy now less screen time, resulting in less tunnel vision also!! hold trades for longer,
Trading is 80% Emotional, 20% Technical
  • #72,800
  • Jun 26, 2008 3:41pm Jun 26, 2008 3:41pm
something interesting, GBP/USD broke the down trendline, and now it is in the upward channel limit, and this wave have almost the same lenght as previous.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp1.GIF Size: 33 KB
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