Dislikedi fixed sell limit...Ignored
Dislikedok guyz.. how about 109 in next 2-3 days? b/w i'm not mad.. let's seeIgnored
DislikedI think we are heading upward.
We touched the pivot zone of around 107.65 and came up. We are still within trend of the 4hour.Ignored
DislikedI trade mainly london and us, but I trade when the setup is in. I will wait all day if I have too.
Can't give away to much info though I don't want people on this forum too think I am trying to help anyone lol. That would be bad!!!!!Ignored
DislikedFirst let me post a summary of what actually
happened before I pose the question to you. Anyone else can answer as well.
Copy and Paste of Summary:
20:10 GMT June 25th USD/JPY opened in NY at 108.00 having held a tight range around 107.80-108.05 during much of London trading. Option maturities around 107.85 and 108.00 were seen helping to contain early price action, with US data including durable goods and new home sales, close enough to expectations to have little impact. USD/JPY then rallied sharply higher, taking out 108.10 & 108.25 stops after a large rise in crude inventories sparked a $4 a barrel fall in crude, lifting the USD as well as stocks with the DJIA rising sharply. A high of 108.33 was seen before a pullback to 108.18 ahead of the Fed. The nod to inflation pressures triggered a further rise to 108.42 but the Fed was not hawkish enough for the bond market and falling yields saw USD/JPY reverse, falling to 107.68 in the afternoon. Bids are eyed at 107.50 with stops below.
EUR/JPY was much of the focus after hawkish comments from no less than 5
ECB officials voicing inflation concerns. Barrier options at 168.50, 168.75 and
169.00 were excised with a high of 169.16 with more barriers tipped at 169.20 and 170.00. Japanese investment demand continues to lift JPY crosses. (rs)
Now Look At What The US Dollar Index Did A Few Minutes After The Announcement !
Fundamentally, NOT technically the market and the PERCEPTION it had was the FED would HOLD BUT they would be Hawkish !
Where was everyone the last week ? Trading USD/JPY to go to 109.00 ?
The FED FEED the market that INFLATION was KEY so everyone except the others who I will name later bought the party line. Unfortunately for the FED the market bought it so much that the 2 Year US Bonds were Yielding almost 3.0% or to be exact earlier today 2.93%
That is called an inverse yield curve ! The banks do not make money with this setup. The FED even went to their friends in the financial papers to dampen expectations.
So now the news is released actually early and the USD/JPY tried to BREAK RESISTANCE at 108.45
It made it to 108.446 and then within minutes reversed and now it trades at 107.76 with the low at 107.731
I was shorting it at 108.40 UP and rode it down a few times.
The Dow gave back 52 points after the announcement to finish up less than 5 points.
Bernake To Dollar Not Yet ! Not Sure ! Maybe ! Perhaps !
Meanwhile Trichet said BABY ! We raise to 4.25% in July !
So look what happened to the EUR/USD ? It went UP ! The Yen went down which means it got stronger !
But wait according to many here the trend is UP ! We are going to 109.00 and 110.00 and 110.00 BUT first you NEED to BREAK 108.45
No Dice !
The question is ! Why do many think the Trend is Up ?
Was any of the information that I pointed out here told to us by the charts ? Are the charts showing USD/JPY is going UP ? What Trend is That ?
Or just maybe it is the EGO in the charts that wants or hopes it will go up !
Maybe it will go up ? Perhaps not.
Bottom line heading towards 107.65 rather than 108.45 is going down in my book !
Is the market better off after the data released today ? Warren Buffet thinks the US Dollar is going down. Why should I disagree with Warren ?
Just wondering since I get confused sometimes on this thread when I see calls for 109.00
Thanks for helping to clear up my confusion and have a GREAT NIGHT !!!
P.S. A Chart For My Technical Friends Here ! Wait a minute ! Do I have any Friends Here ?
Date: 2008/06/25Time: 22:17 (GMT +2)Ticker: JPYLast: 107.78Pivot: 107.61st sup.107.62nd sup.107.353rd sup.107.151st res.108.252nd res.108.43rd res.108.6Title: USD/JPY intraday: rebound expected.Summary: Update on supports and resistances.Story: Pivot: 107.6
Our preference: Long positions above 107.6 with targets @ 108.25 & 108.4 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 107.6 look for further downside with 107.35 & 107.15 as targets.
Comment: The immediate trend remains down but the momentum is weak.
DislikedBottom line heading towards 107.65 from 106.24 (where you started shorting it?) is going UP in my book ! ......Ignored
DislikedWow what a mouth full. Did anyone digest that. This trend has been in place for a couple of weeks now. Selling at 108.50 has been really good. I always thought that sellers coming into market dropped currencies, not news. the setup was there wether there was news or notIgnored