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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #9,021
  • Jun 25, 2008 2:03pm Jun 25, 2008 2:03pm
Quoting Jerry
i fixed sell limit...
sell limit @ 109???
  • #9,022
  • Jun 25, 2008 2:13pm Jun 25, 2008 2:13pm
Quoting Srikanth
ok guyz.. how about 109 in next 2-3 days? b/w i'm not mad.. let's see
I'm just curious why do you think 109 in next couple of days?

Don't you think this dollar strength was priced in before today?

Plus can't close above 108.45
  • #9,023
  • Jun 25, 2008 2:16pm Jun 25, 2008 2:16pm
Quoting Rustyyy
I'm just curious why do you think 109 in next couple of days?

Don't you think this dollar strength was priced in before today?

Plus can't close above 108.45
with fundamentals, you are correct but we should test 109 according to technicals

i know everyone get headache if u/j test 109
  • #9,024
  • Jun 25, 2008 2:23pm Jun 25, 2008 2:23pm
Quoting Srikanth
sell limit @ 109???
108.01 108.02
  • #9,025
  • Jun 25, 2008 2:41pm Jun 25, 2008 2:41pm
Quoting Rustyyy
I'm just curious why do you think 109 in next couple of days?

Don't you think this dollar strength was priced in before today?

Plus can't close above 108.45
Rusty - agreed that the .45 - .50 is tough...... the resistance is at the 108.57 but all in all the trend is still up and eventually that 108.57 will be busted..... it's not the dollar in this case, it is now the yen without the strength.......
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #9,026
  • Jun 25, 2008 2:43pm Jun 25, 2008 2:43pm
I'll be back after 22:00 ET this evening
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #9,027
  • Jun 25, 2008 2:47pm Jun 25, 2008 2:47pm
I think we are heading upward.
We touched the pivot zone of around 107.65 and came up. We are still within trend of the 4hour.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy.gif Size: 13 KB
  • #9,028
  • Jun 25, 2008 3:13pm Jun 25, 2008 3:13pm
Quoting dwildes
I think we are heading upward.
We touched the pivot zone of around 107.65 and came up. We are still within trend of the 4hour.
Man, I sure don't see any evidence of that yet. Looks like the momentum has certainly shifted to the downside.
There's always money in the banana stand.
  • #9,029
  • Jun 25, 2008 3:31pm Jun 25, 2008 3:31pm
downside downside my friends. This is not the time of day to be trading. Very slow wait for volume to come back into the market.


late
  • #9,030
  • Jun 25, 2008 3:33pm Jun 25, 2008 3:33pm
steelhead,

Do you trade during the Asian market open times?

Bristol
"I spilled spot remover on my dog. He's gone now." - Steven Wright
  • #9,031
  • Jun 25, 2008 3:47pm Jun 25, 2008 3:47pm
I trade mainly london and us, but I trade when the setup is in. I will wait all day if I have too.


Can't give away to much info though I don't want people on this forum too think I am trying to help anyone lol. That would be bad!!!!!
  • #9,032
  • Jun 25, 2008 3:50pm Jun 25, 2008 3:50pm
Quoting LizardGizzard
Man, I sure don't see any evidence of that yet. Looks like the momentum has certainly shifted to the downside.
Yeah - I don't either at the moment. Course it is a 4hour chart and it just hit the bottom, so I'm sure it will take a few hours for something to happen
  • #9,033
  • Jun 25, 2008 3:51pm Jun 25, 2008 3:51pm
Quoting steelhead
I trade mainly london and us, but I trade when the setup is in. I will wait all day if I have too.


Can't give away to much info though I don't want people on this forum too think I am trying to help anyone lol. That would be bad!!!!!

  • #9,034
  • Edited 4:30pm Jun 25, 2008 4:11pm | Edited 4:30pm
Quoting LizardGizzard
Man, I sure don't see any evidence of that yet. Looks like the momentum has certainly shifted to the downside.
First let me post a summary of what actually happened before I pose the question to you. Anyone else can answer as well.

Copy and Paste of Summary:

20:10 GMT June 25th USD/JPY opened in NY at 108.00 having held a tight range around 107.80-108.05 during much of London trading. Option maturities around 107.85 and 108.00 were seen helping to contain early price action, with US data including durable goods and new home sales, close enough to expectations to have little impact. USD/JPY then rallied sharply higher, taking out 108.10 & 108.25 stops after a large rise in crude inventories sparked a $4 a barrel fall in crude, lifting the USD as well as stocks with the DJIA rising sharply. A high of 108.33 was seen before a pullback to 108.18 ahead of the Fed. The nod to inflation pressures triggered a further rise to 108.42 but the Fed was not hawkish enough for the bond market and falling yields saw USD/JPY reverse, falling to 107.68 in the afternoon. Bids are eyed at 107.50 with stops below.


EUR/JPY was much of the focus after hawkish comments from no less than 5
ECB officials voicing inflation concerns. Barrier options at 168.50, 168.75 and
169.00 were excised with a high of 169.16 with more barriers tipped at 169.20 and 170.00. Japanese investment demand continues to lift JPY crosses. (rs)


Now Look At What The US Dollar Index Did A Few Minutes After The Announcement !


http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=s


Fundamentally, NOT technically the market and the PERCEPTION it had was the FED would HOLD BUT they would be Hawkish !

Where was everyone the last week ? Trading USD/JPY to go to 109.00 ?

The FED FEED the market that INFLATION was KEY so everyone except the others who I will name later bought the party line. Unfortunately for the FED the market bought it so much that the 2 Year US Bonds were Yielding almost 3.0% or to be exact earlier today 2.93%

That is called an inverse yield curve ! The banks do not make money with this setup. The FED even went to their friends in the financial papers to dampen expectations.

So now the news is released actually early and the USD/JPY tried to BREAK RESISTANCE at 108.45

It made it to 108.446 and then within minutes reversed and now it trades at 107.76 with the low at 107.731

I was shorting it at 108.40 UP and rode it down a few times.

The Dow gave back 52 points after the announcement to finish up less than 5 points.

Bernake To Dollar Not Yet ! Not Sure ! Maybe ! Perhaps !

Meanwhile Trichet said BABY ! We raise to 4.25% in July !

So look what happened to the EUR/USD ? It went UP ! The Yen went down which means it got stronger !

But wait according to many here the trend is UP ! We are going to 109.00 and 110.00 and 110.00 BUT first you NEED to BREAK 108.45

No Dice !

The question is ! Why do many think the Trend is Up ?

Was any of the information that I pointed out here told to us by the charts ? Are the charts showing USD/JPY is going UP ? What Trend is That ?

Or just maybe it is the EGO in the charts that wants or hopes it will go up !

Maybe it will go up ? Perhaps not.

Bottom line heading towards 107.65 rather than 108.45 is going down in my book !

Is the market better off after the data released today ? Warren Buffet thinks the US Dollar is going down. Why should I disagree with Warren ?

Just wondering since I get confused sometimes on this thread when I see calls for 109.00

Thanks for helping to clear up my confusion and have a GREAT NIGHT !!!


Bruce

P.S. A Chart For My Technical Friends Here ! Wait a minute ! Do I have any Friends Here ?

Date: 2008/06/25Time: 22:17 (GMT +2)Ticker: JPYLast: 107.78Pivot: 107.61st sup.107.62nd sup.107.353rd sup.107.151st res.108.252nd res.108.43rd res.108.6Title: USD/JPY intraday: rebound expected.Summary: Update on supports and resistances.Story: Pivot: 107.6

Our preference: Long positions above 107.6 with targets @ 108.25 & 108.4 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 107.6 look for further downside with 107.35 & 107.15 as targets.

Comment: The immediate trend remains down but the momentum is weak.
http://www.tradingcentral.com/chart/...0625161631.GIF
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  • #9,035
  • Jun 25, 2008 4:40pm Jun 25, 2008 4:40pm
Quoting Warren Forex
First let me post a summary of what actually
happened before I pose the question to you. Anyone else can answer as well.

Copy and Paste of Summary:

20:10 GMT June 25th USD/JPY opened in NY at 108.00 having held a tight range around 107.80-108.05 during much of London trading. Option maturities around 107.85 and 108.00 were seen helping to contain early price action, with US data including durable goods and new home sales, close enough to expectations to have little impact. USD/JPY then rallied sharply higher, taking out 108.10 & 108.25 stops after a large rise in crude inventories sparked a $4 a barrel fall in crude, lifting the USD as well as stocks with the DJIA rising sharply. A high of 108.33 was seen before a pullback to 108.18 ahead of the Fed. The nod to inflation pressures triggered a further rise to 108.42 but the Fed was not hawkish enough for the bond market and falling yields saw USD/JPY reverse, falling to 107.68 in the afternoon. Bids are eyed at 107.50 with stops below.


EUR/JPY was much of the focus after hawkish comments from no less than 5
ECB officials voicing inflation concerns. Barrier options at 168.50, 168.75 and
169.00 were excised with a high of 169.16 with more barriers tipped at 169.20 and 170.00. Japanese investment demand continues to lift JPY crosses. (rs)


Now Look At What The US Dollar Index Did A Few Minutes After The Announcement !


http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=s


Fundamentally, NOT technically the market and the PERCEPTION it had was the FED would HOLD BUT they would be Hawkish !

Where was everyone the last week ? Trading USD/JPY to go to 109.00 ?

The FED FEED the market that INFLATION was KEY so everyone except the others who I will name later bought the party line. Unfortunately for the FED the market bought it so much that the 2 Year US Bonds were Yielding almost 3.0% or to be exact earlier today 2.93%

That is called an inverse yield curve ! The banks do not make money with this setup. The FED even went to their friends in the financial papers to dampen expectations.

So now the news is released actually early and the USD/JPY tried to BREAK RESISTANCE at 108.45

It made it to 108.446 and then within minutes reversed and now it trades at 107.76 with the low at 107.731

I was shorting it at 108.40 UP and rode it down a few times.

The Dow gave back 52 points after the announcement to finish up less than 5 points.

Bernake To Dollar Not Yet ! Not Sure ! Maybe ! Perhaps !

Meanwhile Trichet said BABY ! We raise to 4.25% in July !

So look what happened to the EUR/USD ? It went UP ! The Yen went down which means it got stronger !

But wait according to many here the trend is UP ! We are going to 109.00 and 110.00 and 110.00 BUT first you NEED to BREAK 108.45

No Dice !

The question is ! Why do many think the Trend is Up ?

Was any of the information that I pointed out here told to us by the charts ? Are the charts showing USD/JPY is going UP ? What Trend is That ?

Or just maybe it is the EGO in the charts that wants or hopes it will go up !

Maybe it will go up ? Perhaps not.

Bottom line heading towards 107.65 rather than 108.45 is going down in my book !

Is the market better off after the data released today ? Warren Buffet thinks the US Dollar is going down. Why should I disagree with Warren ?

Just wondering since I get confused sometimes on this thread when I see calls for 109.00

Thanks for helping to clear up my confusion and have a GREAT NIGHT !!!


Bruce

P.S. A Chart For My Technical Friends Here ! Wait a minute ! Do I have any Friends Here ?

Date: 2008/06/25Time: 22:17 (GMT +2)Ticker: JPYLast: 107.78Pivot: 107.61st sup.107.62nd sup.107.353rd sup.107.151st res.108.252nd res.108.43rd res.108.6Title: USD/JPY intraday: rebound expected.Summary: Update on supports and resistances.Story: Pivot: 107.6

Our preference: Long positions above 107.6 with targets @ 108.25 & 108.4 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 107.6 look for further downside with 107.35 & 107.15 as targets.

Comment: The immediate trend remains down but the momentum is weak.
http://www.tradingcentral.com/chart/...0625161631.GIF

Wow what a mouth full. Did anyone digest that. This trend has been in place for a couple of weeks now. Selling at 108.50 has been really good. I always thought that sellers coming into market dropped currencies, not news. the setup was there wether there was news or not
  • #9,036
  • Jun 25, 2008 4:45pm Jun 25, 2008 4:45pm
Quote
Warren...Bottom line heading towards 107.65 rather than 108.45 is going down in my book !
Bottom line heading towards 107.65 from 106.24 (where you started shorting it?) is going UP in my book ! ......
  • #9,037
  • Jun 25, 2008 4:56pm Jun 25, 2008 4:56pm
Quoting BigFace
Bottom line heading towards 107.65 from 106.24 (where you started shorting it?) is going UP in my book ! ......
Hahahah - yeah pretty good odds there huh? 10PIPs vs. 70PIPs
But wait, if it touches 107.65 - he'll be 'right', and that's what matters!
  • #9,038
  • Jun 25, 2008 4:57pm Jun 25, 2008 4:57pm
Quoting steelhead
Wow what a mouth full. Did anyone digest that. This trend has been in place for a couple of weeks now. Selling at 108.50 has been really good. I always thought that sellers coming into market dropped currencies, not news. the setup was there wether there was news or not
If it wasn't a book, probably more people would try to attempt it.
Totally agree with you steelhead.

I'm sure Bruce you can come up with more fundamental articles - but it's only excuses to 'try' to explain after the fact what happens. If you say 'up' or 'down' everyday, guess what - you are eventually going to be right! If you notice the really smart traders in here aren't biased. If we are in an uptrending day, it's long, long, long. If it's a down-trending day, it's short, short, short. That's playing it smart, not trying to play it being 'right'.
  • #9,039
  • Jun 25, 2008 5:09pm Jun 25, 2008 5:09pm
Bruce I always find your "books" very insightful. I am very weak on Fundies knowledge and apprecate your take on it. Keep up the good work.

Cpreacher
  • #9,040
  • Jun 25, 2008 5:09pm Jun 25, 2008 5:09pm
Hello everyone,
I have been absent from Forex Factory and the whole forex world for a while. I have had a lot of things in my life cause me not to be able to trade not only money but time as well. I have attempted to continue trading with demo accounts but havent been able to focus for some reason. I think maybe God wanted me to do other things for a while. Anyway after a long absence I was compelled to contact a friend of mine via skype who mentioned the U/J Thread. I was spurred to begin re-learning everything having to do with pivots and trends via Dove from a long time ago. My first task was to read through the U/J thread. Long story short I continued reading until recent posts and to my surprise here are all of my old friends. Trader07, KGB, Gunslinger, polish trader, etc. (I know I missed some people.) And most especially to my surprise is my friend Dove-Alliance. Dove I'm glad to see you back, how have you been?? I hope all is going well and I hope to reconnect. Back toUJ thread daily now Cheers.
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