USD/JPY Discussion

This is better than the crappy soap operas they have on tv. While I enjoy reading everyone's posts with their views on market direction, I hope we can be mature individuals and not suppress anyone's trading style. If you stick with fundamentals, great. If you like technicals, so be it. Lets not lose sight of the fact that we're all here for the same reason, which is to MAKE MONEY.

For the record, the one hour time frame is in an uptrend. To go against the trend would most likely not be of any benefit, until the trend is broken. THIS IS FOR YOU THAT TRADE TECHNICALS. IF YOU TRADE FUNDAMENTALS, IGNORE THIS PART OF THE POST (HMM, HMM, WARREN FOREX). Just having some fun man, don't go reading into it too much.

I'm out.

You have nothing to prove here. Your posting your results only proves you made 127 PIPS using your method. Do Not try to convince others that because of that fact, you are right in your opinion.

I hope you make 1000 PIPS a day. Your method works for you great !

With Great RESPECT you have a EGO issue in my opinion. I am 64 years of age and I have seen it all and more. I also have a EGO however I know when it is time to calm it down.

All we want to do on this thread in my opinion is to help each other. It is not about who is right or wrong. Sometimes it is better to just make your point and let go. However sometimes an EGO gets in the way of that. I hope you NEVER EVER do not make 100 PIPS or more each day, HOWEVER I would be most impressed if when you did not make your 100 PIPS you also let us know. Does that mean then that you are not correct in your opinion ? No, of course not BUT it works the other way as well. Regardless you added some spice to this thread today. Hope to see you around again.

Best regards

Bruce

P.S. USD/JPY trades at 106.67 Bid...

That is awesome! Now, would you show any of us how to do the same?

There is good merit in having different opinions. Just keep it light and not too personal. We can teach each other. I would love to read charts like the Dove can as can other's here. We can combine our skills to help each other. The whole point is to make money and have fun while doing it.

I am taking a break now to watch the REAL DEAL !!!

YES...Correct... The WWE ... Easy on the Eyes and No Charts or Facts to get in the way of each other.


Bruce

Pro and Retail Trading - Respect
By Semar Bezau
http://origin.ih.constantcontact.com...=1102129267578 The Forex market is split between two types of traders: the retail trader also known as the kitchen-sink trader and the institutional trader. Most of the retail traders dream to reach an institutional level, praising and admiring those who already have done so. Well, my point of view differs a little, and I think that institutional traders should have a high regard for retailers too, especially for the full-time Kitchen-Sinkers.

Institutional traders are taken from the university's desks sometimes even before they graduate. They are trained to do damage in the market, to hunt the market for any flaw and profit from it. Do I also need to say that they get huge salaries for this? Whether they make money or not is irrelevant, the wages get paid.

Joe, our Forex retailer, doesn't usually have access to any Wall Street mentor, access to $2000 a month data feeds, nor access to people with more than just a few years of experience in the Forex market. A vast number of retail traders were introduced to Foreign Exchange at a time when they have a family to support and kids to send to school. It's hard to learn something completely new at this stage in life, especially to be investing into a completely new market, without expecting instant rewards.

One thing that needs to be accepted is that money does not equal reward, time and effort are the only things that equal reward. For those with no time to invest it is not that hard to lose some money in the first months as a retail trader. Those that have the money to invest but not the time initiate their Forex trading life with a baptism of fire. That is not the way to do it, leverage and money management really hurt when they are abused. Most new traders ignore the 2% maximum risk at any one time, and most soon see that abusing leverage is a way to quickly compound what would otherwise have been losing trade into a trade that blows up an account. Time investment is not the same as money investment, take care with that thought, it is priceless.

What is worse, in the case of a prolonged loss for a new retail trader, as they work their way past the trading demons each day, is they will have a negative account balance and nothing more to show for their effort. They become insulated and dread the cheery welcome as they drag themselves out of their trading cave; "Hello dear, you look tired. How did your trading go today?".

In that same time, in that same market, the institutional trader will still have his (outrageous) wages and nothing more than some comments from his bosses at the quarterly review. If the losses persist, the institutional trader may get fired, but only if he is doing worse than the others who are losing money, it is easy to hide on a trade desk.

Is not my mission to say trading at an institutional level is easy; all I'm trying to say is institutional traders should pay respect to retailers too. A large percentage of hedge funds reported losses this year, whilst the more experienced Kitchen Sinker's had no problem keeping themselves in profit. So, the greatest respect needs to be paid the retail trader, the faith that they have in their own ability to succeed is admirable, and worthy of more than a cursory glance from the Wall Street Wonders. Here's to you my Kitchen-Sinkers, you should be very, very proud of yourselves. Remember to Keep It Tight, And Never Give Up. KITANGU.

I'm shorting UJ from 106.81.. for 100 pips like Dove
I'll make 1000 pips per day.
lol

Always tend is you friend and I’m long

The trend is your friend, but all trends come to an end .... and I need it to end now so that I can make 1000 pips ... LOL

that was a deep thought...

in my opinion; trends are like friends and they come to help you and give
you emotional support at some stage of your trading life.
then you realize which trend really matters, which never did and which
won't anymore...
so don't worry about the past trends in your charts. there's a reason why
they didn't make it to the future...

Sincerely yours......

"Sentimental Trader"

JUST WHEN TRADERS SAY THAT YOU KNOW ITS GOING DOWNTOWN.

Chineese markets are a red flag for longs.

Heng seng is down almost 4 percent at the moment.

hmm..... benny gave good news...

usd strengten across da board...

too late for a long now....

back 2 bed...

The time is 3:11 AM EST and things are rocking and rolling. The HIGH in USD/JPY is still 106.855 and now my Platform charts call 107.00 the PIVOT point with the Technical Call down !!!

Here it is. I wish they could make up their mind. DOWN,UP, DOWN ...Wheee

Date: 2008/06/10Time: 08:06 (GMT +2)Ticker: JPYLast: 106.79Pivot: 1071st sup.106.012nd sup.105.673rd sup.105.41st res.1072nd res.107.943rd res.108.15Title: USD/JPY intraday: turning downSummary: Update on supports and resistances.Story: Pivot: 107.00.

Our Preference: SHORT positions @ 106.9 with 106.01 & 105.67 in sight.

Alternative scenario: The upside penetration of 107 will call for a rebound towards 107.94 & 108.15.

Comment: the 30-min RSI is posting a potential bearish divergence, the pair is below a bullish channel resistance.

Trend: ST Consolidation; MT Bearish

Key levels Comment

108.15** Fib projection
107.94** Fib projection
107*** Intraday pivot point
106.79 Last
106.01** Fib retracement (38.2%)
105.67** Fib retracement (50%)
105.4** Fib retracement (61.8%)
http://www.tradingcentral.com/chart/...0610080532.GIF

Yesterday we talked about the market overreaction to the recent news
and today we've got history repeating itself with the anticipation
of Bernanke's speech. EUR/USD went from the high of 158.50 area all
the way down to 155.60ish, completely wiped out its gain on Friday's
unemployment rate's figure. So what is next for EUR/USD for today?
First of all, Bernanke's speech did cover inflation, but he was not
as uber-hawkish as everyone expected. He didn't mention the USD in
this speech. However, in the low liquidity Asian session
immediately following the speech, USD were gaining across the board,
particularly against the EURO and YEN.

I think what we saw with the nearly 200+ pips of retracement on the
EUR/USD pair is another market over-reaction and classic buy rumor
and sell on news reaction; of course the low liquidity environment
didn't help either, as we will see the real trend manifesting itself
during the London open. What is important is to understand that
Bernanke's speech has not changed the trend, he did downplay the
impact on the unemployment rate, but nevertheless, ECB is still on
its way to a rate hike as soon as next month, whereas FOMC won't
even mention rate hikes until the 4th quarter, therefore the long
term fundamental is pretty much set. After this last bout of CBPC
(Central Banker Pissing Contest) is over, we should see EUR/USD
possibly retesting the recent highs of 1.60+. (450+ pips from
now).
By the way, based on fundamental correlation, if EUR/USD goes to
1.60, we should see Crude hitting above 150 a barrel as many
economists suggested, therefore USD/CAD could also be at its recent
lows; AUD/USD might go as far as getting parity with USD (1/1).

The Games People Play !!! Go FED Boys ... POW Trichet says WOW !!!

Lots of HOT AIR !!! No Change in Fundamentals !!!


Bruce

In the last 24 hours they went from Long to Short at 106.06 to Long at 106.80 and now they are hedging their CALL !!!

Trade the Charts if it works for you BUT it does NOT work for me unless, I understand what causes the Chart Callers to change their positions BACK and FORTH as the FED and ECB Play The Chess Game and those confused keep changing their positions. Here is their latest as Dow Futures DOWN 98

Long play just out of the money but indications are that the trade will be frustrated by fairly flat price action. Trend readings on the hourly/daily chart remain weak and Stochastics are top heavy. The bigger picture price action still argues for higher levels and with price edging above the recent 106.42 high the bias is with us despite the studies. (PS) 07:33 GMT
end

http://www.actionforex.com/action-in...2008061048866/

Snippet:

Daily Report: Dollar Comes Back, BoC Eyed

Dollar extends rebound following hawkish comments from Bernanke who said that the Fed will "resist an erosion of longer-term inflation expectations, as an unanchoring of those expectations would be destabilizing for growth as well as for inflation." On the other hand, Bernanke also played down the unexpected surge in unemployment rate shown last week and said that "the recent incoming data, taken as a whole, have affected the outlook for economic activity and employment only modestly." Also, he believed that "the risk that the economy has entered a substantial downturn appears to have diminished over the past month or so."
Much volatility is seen in EUR/USD since the start of the month as markets are caught in between tug of war of Fed and ECB officials' comments. Same volatility is also seen earlier in USD/CHF and GBP/USD and to a certain extend the USD/JPY too. So far, the only clearer trend is still being displayed in USD/CAD whish has now climbed above 1.02 level and is set to take on 1.0378 resistance.
Speaking of the Canadian dollar, BoC rate decision is closely watched by the markets today. Markets are expecting the bank to cut rates by another 25 bps to 2.75%. Focus is on the accompanying statement and in particular on the language regarding 'further monetary stimulus' on the odds if BoC will continue the rate cut cycle further.
Japanese data released overnight saw Machine orders rose much more than expected by 5.5% mom in Apr, with yoy rate at 0.5%. Machine tools orders also jumped by 1.4%. Germany Wholesale price index accelerated to a 26 year high of 8.1% yoy in May. From UK, RIS house balance was at -92.9%, better than expectation of -97%. DCLG house price index will be released later today with Apr industrial and Manufacturing production. US trade deficit is expected to widen slightly to -59.9b. Canadian trade surplus is expected to widen to 5.7b.


Bruce

USD/JPY now trades at 106.49 Bid as it NEVER got OVER 106.855

The Dow Futures are now down 107

Let me explain things to anyone interested in really learning. That excludes folks that are writing books now. Stop that, Bruce.

Since the FED and the USA Government don't like the INFLATION they caused by printing TOO MUCH MONEY and by cutting to 2.0% to try to solve the problem of the meltdown in housing and in the banking section, that THEY caused by not regulating the GREEDY Banker Friends of theirs, now they are changing their tune as it is now clear to everyone, even the traders that only use charts to trade. Stop that, Bruce.

They NOW have a BIG problem. Actually raising rates which I doubt they will do cause that will send the Equities Markets down. PRETENDING to RAISE rates has the same effect. The ECB is not PRETENDING as they will RAISE rates BUT the FED cannot as I just explained.

By mathematics a RAISE by ECB and a HOLD by the FED results in the spread changing and then EUR/USD heads to 160.00 again. The Result is the same as a FED CUT !!!

Oil goes UP and The Dow goes down. The USD/JPY goes back to 100.00 and we have CHECKMATE.

Game Over !!! The FED loses as do unfortunately many good Americans or anyone else still wanting to hold US Dollars.

Guess What, I NEVER learned that from the Charts. Stop that, Bruce.

In case anyone does not understand the true purpose of this post LET me be very clear.

Trading FX is about being a WINNER and making money. If you have a method to do that even if it is tossing darts at a dart board...GREAT !!!

Unfortunately for me that does not work. Only using the charts for me does not work. My method of trading DOES WORK.

I came to this forum recently to assist those that want to learn how to win, not to debate or PROVE who is smarter.

I am not SMART enough to write a book or produce a chart.

However I am SMART enough to earn OVER 20% profit a month.

Everytime someone challenges me, I offer to send them my documented trading results. Rarely do they take me UP on my offer since they really have a different agenda.

Anyone claiming to be an EXPERT in their results shown be willing to show with certain privacy restrictions, their documented results.

I am not the BEST yet but one day I hope to be. Until then I am willing to learn from anyone that can help me. My EGO is dealt with by my COMMON SENSE.

Have A Great Trading Day and to those that do not agree with me that is fine. We are entitled to our own opinion. I am not afraid to admit I called it wrong if USD/JPY goes over 107.00 and who knows it might ?

If it does and the Fundamentals have NOT CHANGED, I will SHORT it.

Bruce

Market Comments
The market is clearly confused and nervous in recent days with these enormous and volatile direction changes. Before last Thursday, it appeared we were building a strong case for a strong USD, especially with the first supportive rhetoric for the USD from the Fed in recent years, an oil sell-off and the tendency for European data to disappoint of late. Then we got Trichet's ultra-hawkish press conference and an apparent preparation for rate hikes as soon as next month on Thursday. The two-day, 16-dollar rocket ride in oil prices also unnerved all markets and the near-record jump in the unemployment rate from the US on Friday added insult to injury to the USD. The fresh USD longs were sent tumbling to the exits and new USD shorts were emboldened. Yet with the action yesterday and overnight, the market seems to have overreacted in the opposite direction, as a consolidation turned into a rout. The move stronger was boosted by Bernanke talking up the economy's prospects and inflation fighting and Treasure Secretary Paulson stating that he would never rule out intervention to support the USD. (A side thought on that note: considering the paltry US reserves, I suppose Mr. Paulson would need to print some money to use for any intervention...?).
With EURUSD having moved up almost 500 pips and then down nearly 300 pips in less than a week of trading, the bodies of both bulls and bears are strewn all over the trading battlefield. We were fooled along with the market and now try to take a step back and see what unfolds next. The scenario we cooked up in the wake of Friday's events was a quick, strong EURUSD rally to new all-time highs due to the ECB's promise to tighten. Our strong conviction was/is that this tightening will only serve to intensify the strength of the continued downturn in the EuroZone, which could turn into a very hard landing. Support for a rally to new highs in EURUSD was found in the interest rate spread between the EuroZone and the US, which spiked above 200 basis points for the 2-year rates for the first time in many years. But with Bernanke and Paulson's tough words yesterday, that differential has reversed violently in favor of the USD by over 40 basis points since Friday's close. Bernanke said he felt that the risks to the economy were easing and that he will "strongly resist" any jump in price expectations. So where do we go from here? 1.5800 and 1.5400 are the approximate swing areas that may give us a hint. We must also consider the G-8 conference this weekend when thinking of the USD trajectory. What will the US Treasury have to say today about the USD? Will we see a stronger statement emerging from the G-8 on the plight of the USD?
The odd thing in our view with all of the tough talk on inflation from the Fed and the ECB is that we seem to have an ugly Round 2 of the credit crisis brewing in the background - have the Fed and ECB lost the plot? Going long risk aversion trades may be the best bet soon. These trades have not performed well in recent days with the inflation focus, but the market may begin to smell the coffee as the skeleton rattling in banks and other financial institutions' closets reaches a crescendo....a short EURCHF trade is one basic way to play this, but a refocus on risk would also eventually send the JPY pairs tumbling.
Yesterday, GBP got a heady boost from very high inflation data. But as with the EuroZone, the idea of GBP getting a boost on high rates doesn't have a very sustainable future, as tighter credit eventually serves as a "recession enhancer" more than it does as a supporter of value.
Chart: USDCAD
Watch USDCAD today with the Bank of Canada rate decision, in which the bank is expected to cut rates 25 bps to bring the rate to 2.75%. US and Canadian 2-year rates are rapidly approaching parity and were it not for the oil rally, USDCAD would be trading far higher. The key resistance levels are the trendline resistance just around the overnight high at 1.0260, and then the huge range resistance and old low coming in at 1.0340/80. First big support comes in at 1.0095.

And Long

The HIGH so far is 107.152 and I will tell you this Trend or No Trend !!!

Gold is Down. Oil is Down. Dow Futures Down 70. Europe Down. The YIELDS on the 2 Year US Bonds and the 10 Year US Bonds are UP.

The FED has TALKED UP the US Dollar.

The Trend can and WILL Reverse faster than you can imagine as it is a very short term trend.

If you have profits keep TIGHT STOPS to lock in Profits...

Have A Look At This If You Have Not Seen It !!!

Market Comments
The market is clearly confused and nervous in recent days with these enormous and volatile direction changes. Before last Thursday, it appeared we were building a strong case for a strong USD, especially with the first supportive rhetoric for the USD from the Fed in recent years, an oil sell-off and the tendency for European data to disappoint of late. Then we got Trichet's ultra-hawkish press conference and an apparent preparation for rate hikes as soon as next month on Thursday. The two-day, 16-dollar rocket ride in oil prices also unnerved all markets and the near-record jump in the unemployment rate from the US on Friday added insult to injury to the USD. The fresh USD longs were sent tumbling to the exits and new USD shorts were emboldened. Yet with the action yesterday and overnight, the market seems to have overreacted in the opposite direction, as a consolidation turned into a rout. The move stronger was boosted by Bernanke talking up the economy's prospects and inflation fighting and Treasure Secretary Paulson stating that he would never rule out intervention to support the USD. (A side thought on that note: considering the paltry US reserves, I suppose Mr. Paulson would need to print some money to use for any intervention...?).
With EURUSD having moved up almost 500 pips and then down nearly 300 pips in less than a week of trading, the bodies of both bulls and bears are strewn all over the trading battlefield. We were fooled along with the market and now try to take a step back and see what unfolds next. The scenario we cooked up in the wake of Friday's events was a quick, strong EURUSD rally to new all-time highs due to the ECB's promise to tighten. Our strong conviction was/is that this tightening will only serve to intensify the strength of the continued downturn in the EuroZone, which could turn into a very hard landing. Support for a rally to new highs in EURUSD was found in the interest rate spread between the EuroZone and the US, which spiked above 200 basis points for the 2-year rates for the first time in many years. But with Bernanke and Paulson's tough words yesterday, that differential has reversed violently in favor of the USD by over 40 basis points since Friday's close. Bernanke said he felt that the risks to the economy were easing and that he will "strongly resist" any jump in price expectations. So where do we go from here? 1.5800 and 1.5400 are the approximate swing areas that may give us a hint. We must also consider the G-8 conference this weekend when thinking of the USD trajectory. What will the US Treasury have to say today about the USD? Will we see a stronger statement emerging from the G-8 on the plight of the USD?
The odd thing in our view with all of the tough talk on inflation from the Fed and the ECB is that we seem to have an ugly Round 2 of the credit crisis brewing in the background - have the Fed and ECB lost the plot? Going long risk aversion trades may be the best bet soon. These trades have not performed well in recent days with the inflation focus, but the market may begin to smell the coffee as the skeleton rattling in banks and other financial institutions' closets reaches a crescendo....a short EURCHF trade is one basic way to play this, but a refocus on risk would also eventually send the JPY pairs tumbling.
Yesterday, GBP got a heady boost from very high inflation data. But as with the EuroZone, the idea of GBP getting a boost on high rates doesn't have a very sustainable future, as tighter credit eventually serves as a "recession enhancer" more than it does as a supporter of value.
Chart: USDCAD
Watch USDCAD today with the Bank of Canada rate decision, in which the bank is expected to cut rates 25 bps to bring the rate to 2.75%. US and Canadian 2-year rates are rapidly approaching parity and were it not for the oil rally, USDCAD would be trading far higher. The key resistance levels are the trendline resistance just around the overnight high at 1.0260, and then the huge range resistance and old low coming in at 1.0340/80. First big support comes in at 1.0095.

From a fundamental perspective, I have to agree with Bruce on this one. We've seen Ben talk up the dollar and the market a number of times in 2008 and it works...for a few days, then another piece of bad news rears its ugly head and everyone remembers the reality of the situation. There is certainly some bad news on the boil at present - a couple of banks in the UK look very unsteady...we have Lehman and Merrill in the US looking distinctly unwell...any of these have more trouble and both sides of the pond will be seriously effected.

On the ground, I can only comment on what I see around me in the UK, which is looking grimmer quicker than even I thought was possible 6 months ago, and I have been a bear on the UK economy for years. The rapidity in the change of fortunes of those involved in the housing market is shocking.

From everything I have read, I suspect that, on the ground, the US must be in a similar situation. (Another somewhat perverse indicator that I have seen is that certain "cheap" collectibles I follow on ebay seem to be dropping in prices, which suggests that ordinary people are feeling the squeeze.) Given that a lot of the inflation is imported, I cannot see how being tough on it at present is going to do anything other than deepen the current recession (and yes, we are in one).