SHORT SHORT SHORT
the boj is short of paper!!!
the boj is short of paper!!!
USD/JPY Discussion 7 replies
NZD/JPY Discussion 12 replies
long eur/jpy, gbp/jpy, usd/jpy 11 replies
EUR/USD Bollinger Band Discussion 3 replies
Suidster's GBP/JPY Discussion 19 replies
DislikedShort at 106.27, tight stop at 106.45, fundamentally the usd/jpy is in favor of longs, but the fact that the market is down and a double top on a 60 min chart is the reason for me shorting it.Ignored
DislikedMy question is: Do you feel lucky being taken out at the 45???????
What you should be asking yourself is what currency has the power and the answer is the EUR....... Along with the Dollar........ While you was shorting I was long and still am.Ignored
DislikedI based this trade on charts and if it was to go in favor of my short the risk to reward was decent, I was stopped out for a tiny loss and already have it covered.Ignored
DislikedWhat you did is base your entry on a double top while the trend is up and lost....... never go against the trend and you will always be a winner.......Ignored
DislikedI am going to post some technicals from the technical EXPERTS I refer to at times just to know what everyone else sees as the various support and resistance points. Two hours ago they were short USD/JPY at 106.06
Now they are long...
Here is their call ...
Shorts taken overnight have been stopped and reversed as we have now had a daily close above the down trend line which is a bullish event. The next resistance level is a daily high from Feb 27 at 107.40 but a better target would now seem to be the 200-day MA at 108.55. Support is now at 106.40 and 106.00. (SL) 00:41 GMT
I guarantee that if Benake was not speaking tonight the USD/JPY would not be where it is. No charts put that in it's equation. The TREND can and does change sometimes in a flash of a second like on Friday at 8:30 AM when Unemployment Rate Surprises at 5.5%
I am flat now so I am waiting for the right point to short it. If Bernake's HOT AIR is a fundamental fact I would look seriously at it. ALL he has done is change Reality to PERCEPTION so go with Perception until the PERCEPTION is NOT.
Call it luck, call it knowing he would speak but the Charts did NOT call it in my personal opinion.
Let's see it GO over 107.00 !!!Ignored
DislikedI am going to post some technicals from the technical EXPERTS I refer to at times just to know what everyone else sees as the various support and resistance points. Two hours ago they were short USD/JPY at 106.06
Now they are long...
Here is their call ...
Shorts taken overnight have been stopped and reversed as we have now had a daily close above the down trend line which is a bullish event. The next resistance level is a daily high from Feb 27 at 107.40 but a better target would now seem to be the 200-day MA at 108.55. Support is now at 106.40 and 106.00. (SL) 00:41 GMT
I guarantee that if Benake was not speaking tonight the USD/JPY would not be where it is. No charts put that in it's equation. The TREND can and does change sometimes in a flash of a second like on Friday at 8:30 AM when Unemployment Rate Surprises at 5.5%
I am flat now so I am waiting for the right point to short it. If Bernake's HOT AIR is a fundamental fact I would look seriously at it. ALL he has done is change Reality to PERCEPTION so go with Perception until the PERCEPTION is NOT.
Call it luck, call it knowing he would speak but the Charts did NOT call it in my personal opinion.
Let's see it GO over 107.00 !!!Ignored
DislikedJust to start my point of view. I might be wrong. Having said that, I doubt it.
I see that the FED is again talking UP the US Dollar. They CAN SCREAM Raise all the way to the next rate cut. They would be INSANE to raise PERIOD.
They will soon lose 100% of their credibility. Raising rates would guarantee a longer recession. Perhaps they might not cut but as long as prices for Oil goes UP, the ECB will raise. The FED holds and it equals a CUT !!!
I have not even visited WWW.JSMINESET.COM today and when I do shortly, I expect to see similar comments there. I am happy the FED is getting USD/JPY higher since it gives me a better and safer place to short from.
ON EDIT...
Here is what the REAL EXPERT SAID. I Know Not a Thing !!!
Snippet:
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Today the SEC said that they may ban Moody and Standard & Poors from rating any company with structured investment products. That sounds to me like both would be closed down because what public company is free of SIVs? The answer is none.
This situation is not only getting worse, but it is doing so at an accelerating rate.
If the Fed raises rates even a 1/4 point they would light the fuse to the final chapter long before it is due.
Citi, Merrill, UBS Face Monoline Losses, Whitney Says (Update1)
By Jeff Kearns and Bradley Keoun
June 9 (Bloomberg) -- Citigroup Inc., Merrill Lynch & Co. and UBS AG may post losses of $10 billion on bond insurance after MBIA Inc. and Ambac Financial Group Inc. lost their top credit ratings, Oppenheimer & Co. analyst Meredith Whitney said.
MBIA and Ambac, the world's largest bond insurers, had their AAA ratings cut two levels by Standard & Poor's June 5, which trimmed ratings on more than $1 trillion of securities they guaranteed. The downgrades may limit the so-called monoline insurers' ability to write new policies, putting further pressure on earnings, she wrote today in a note to investors.
``The limited earnings potential of monolines poses a risk to the value of the insurance and hedges on the subprime-related securities provided to the banks and brokers,'' Whitney wrote. ``The collateral damage could be in excess of an additional $10 billion.''
Whitney, one of the first bank analysts last year to gauge the depth of the U.S. credit crisis, said in January that losses tied to the bond insurers for all banks might top $40 billion. She didn't update her estimate. Citigroup, Merrill and UBS have taken more than $10 billion of writedowns related to the insurers, she wrote.
Citigroup, the biggest U.S. bank, and Merrill, the world's biggest brokerage, have ``underperform'' stock ratings from Whitney. Both companies are based in New York. She doesn't cover Zurich-based UBS, the European bank hardest hit by the U.S. subprime contagion.
More…
IT IS IMPOSSIBLE to have a STRONG US Dollar with the deficits and the US Dollars being printed the way it is now. The FUNDAMENTALS do not CHANGE just because Bush and the FED say they want a STRONG US DOLLAR !!!
Let Me Seee USD/JPY break 106.40 and then 106.60 and then I will have another look. I have seen this movie one thousand times in the last three years.
The CHARTS can show whatever they show. The FACTS lead the Charts. PERCEPTION changes the Charts and the TRUTH changes them back again as the Dow drops again as another Bank hits the dust.
It will be interesting to see what happens by Friday. How about a FUN POLL ?
My Call for USD/JPY for Friday, June 13, 2008 is 104.50 to 105.00 !!!
What is your Call ?
Bruce
P.S.
Another Opinion !!!
Euro Outlook
20:09 GMT June 9th EUR/USD continues to whip around in wild swings characterized by thin liquidity and exaggerated price movements. Spot opened NY around 1.5800 having tested 1.5842 in overnight trading, and summarily collapsed. Comments from Treasury Secretary Paulson that intervention is "not off the table", and more comments from the Fed's Geithner echoing Bernanke's comments last week that the Fed is paying "particular attention" to the dollar, and the central bank cannot afford to ignore the currency rallied the buck. EUR/USD collapsed to 1.5620, the low as oil fell, and closed at 1.5625/30.
Heavy EUR/GBP sales undermined the single currency, with a high PPI print sparked fears of a BoE ate hike and hammered the pair down from 0.8033 in early European trading to trigger stops in New York at 0.7980, and driving the pair to closing lows at 0.7917/20. Too many people were in the trade, they liked short GBP, and didn't like the USD so they picked EUR/GBP, more fall out likely. Trichet repeated his comments from last week regarding potential rate hikes. Noyer (BdF) also affirmed ECB will do what is necessary to battle inflation. PCWIgnored
DislikedNo - you are very wrong on that - the trend was in the same direction as the announcement...... I know, I was in that trade 5 minutes before the call.........
And really - you can use all the excuses you like but the reality is what it is....... I'm finished with you so good luck.......Ignored