USD/JPY Discussion | Page 381 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

USD/JPY

Similar Threads

USD/JPY Discussion 12 replies

NZD/JPY Discussion 12 replies

long eur/jpy, gbp/jpy, usd/jpy 11 replies

EUR/USD Bollinger Band Discussion 3 replies

Suidster's GBP/JPY Discussion 19 replies

Attachments: USD/JPY Discussion
Exit Attachments

USD/JPY Discussion

  • #7,601
  • Jun 9, 2008 6:15pm Jun 9, 2008 6:15pm
SHORT SHORT SHORT
the boj is short of paper!!!
  • #7,602
  • Jun 9, 2008 6:27pm Jun 9, 2008 6:27pm
Anyone ever been to Akihabara Tokyo? Where that guy went ape SH&T. I loved that place. So much cool toys!!
  • #7,603
  • Edited 10:52pm Jun 9, 2008 6:52pm | Edited 10:52pm
Hello again Dove!!

As I hardly ever visit this thread anymore, I just happened to stumble across your posts. As with most things that change, it's certainly not what it used to be, it's not likely to change back to that, and I genuinely think you'd be better off starting another one that reflects your views.

This one seems to have currently taken it's own "trend" that would be at odds with your methods, and as you maintain, the trend won't change until it changes... For sure it'd be easier to follow without having to wade thru boatloads of news releases, unrelated posts, and what not.

I'm sure there are several of us at least, that would be interested in knowing your views on the current state of affairs, if and how your strategies have adapted to increased volatility, and so on. Islander has some good points (as always...) and you have always had a unique perspective that challenged many of us, and I believe bettered us as traders in one way or another.

I always wondered if you'd ever try this format again, and hope you consider your own thread for several reasons. In any event, it's good to hear from you again. Blessings old friend.

ps, please pm or email me about the book, and a big hey! to FB, KGB, and the rest of the old gang. Now where'd trader07 get off to?
FUBAR...
  • #7,604
  • Jun 9, 2008 7:01pm Jun 9, 2008 7:01pm
Short at 106.27, tight stop at 106.45, fundamentally the usd/jpy is in favor of longs, but the fact that the market is down and a double top on a 60 min chart is the reason for me shorting it.
  • #7,605
  • Jun 9, 2008 7:19pm Jun 9, 2008 7:19pm
Quoting Tonest3r
Short at 106.27, tight stop at 106.45, fundamentally the usd/jpy is in favor of longs, but the fact that the market is down and a double top on a 60 min chart is the reason for me shorting it.
My question is: Do you feel lucky being taken out at the 45???????

What you should be asking yourself is what currency has the power and the answer is the EUR....... Along with the Dollar........ While you was shorting I was long and still am.
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #7,606
  • Jun 9, 2008 7:22pm Jun 9, 2008 7:22pm
My target is the R1 at the 94......
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #7,607
  • Jun 9, 2008 7:29pm Jun 9, 2008 7:29pm
camon baby, in .92 I sell again
  • #7,608
  • Jun 9, 2008 7:34pm Jun 9, 2008 7:34pm
I open at the 1.5648 with the EUR/USD going short and was taken out with profit at the S1 - 1.5561
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #7,609
  • Jun 9, 2008 7:36pm Jun 9, 2008 7:36pm
I went ahead close my Yen for 40 pips and that gives me over 100 pips for the day and I am finished until tomorrow...... Good trading to you all.
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #7,610
  • Jun 9, 2008 7:36pm Jun 9, 2008 7:36pm
00:25 USD/JPY: Jumps On Hawkish Bernanke Commentsw, 107 Break Eyed Tokyo, June 10. USD/JPY has literally jumped followed hawkish comments from FOMC Chairman Bernanke. The pair has managed to trade though a top of sorts ahead of presumed option barriers at 106.50, tripping stops above and now eyeing moves towards 107.00. The high so far has been 106.75/80. The pair currently trades 106.69/72. Although some more Japanese exporter sales are eyed ahead of 107.00 along with sales from option players protecting more presumed barriers at 107.00, the momentum looks to be favoring bulls and a break above 107.00 could be only a matter of time. Many see a move up to the 107-109 range seen during most of February soon. [email protected]

Now his bluff will be called !


Bruce
{Promotion Removed}
  • #7,611
  • Jun 9, 2008 7:40pm Jun 9, 2008 7:40pm
Quoting dove_alliance
My question is: Do you feel lucky being taken out at the 45???????

What you should be asking yourself is what currency has the power and the answer is the EUR....... Along with the Dollar........ While you was shorting I was long and still am.
I based this trade on charts and if it was to go in favor of my short the risk to reward was decent, I was stopped out for a tiny loss and already have it covered.
  • #7,612
  • Jun 9, 2008 7:46pm Jun 9, 2008 7:46pm
Quoting Tonest3r
I based this trade on charts and if it was to go in favor of my short the risk to reward was decent, I was stopped out for a tiny loss and already have it covered.
What you did is base your entry on a double top while the trend is up and lost....... never go against the trend and you will always be a winner.......
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #7,613
  • Jun 9, 2008 7:55pm Jun 9, 2008 7:55pm
106.98 is the next resistance (daily R1) together with 106.96 weekly mid-pivot. I expect a major retrace or a stall before it attempts to break through that
"Luxury is one of the basic needs", (c), Don Corleone
  • #7,614
  • Jun 9, 2008 7:56pm Jun 9, 2008 7:56pm
Quoting dove_alliance
What you did is base your entry on a double top while the trend is up and lost....... never go against the trend and you will always be a winner.......
I am going to post some technicals from the technical EXPERTS I refer to at times just to know what everyone else sees as the various support and resistance points. Two hours ago they were short USD/JPY at 106.06

Now they are long...

Here is their call ...


Shorts taken overnight have been stopped and reversed as we have now had a daily close above the down trend line which is a bullish event. The next resistance level is a daily high from Feb 27 at 107.40 but a better target would now seem to be the 200-day MA at 108.55. Support is now at 106.40 and 106.00. (SL) 00:41 GMT

I guarantee that if Benake was not speaking tonight the USD/JPY would not be where it is. No charts put that in it's equation. The TREND can and does change sometimes in a flash of a second like on Friday at 8:30 AM when Unemployment Rate Surprises at 5.5%

I am flat now so I am waiting for the right point to short it. If Bernake's HOT AIR is a fundamental fact I would look seriously at it. ALL he has done is change Reality to PERCEPTION so go with Perception until the PERCEPTION is NOT.

Call it luck, call it knowing he would speak but the Charts did NOT call it in my personal opinion.

Let's see it GO over 107.00 !!!
{Promotion Removed}
  • #7,615
  • Jun 9, 2008 8:02pm Jun 9, 2008 8:02pm
Quoting Warren Forex
I am going to post some technicals from the technical EXPERTS I refer to at times just to know what everyone else sees as the various support and resistance points. Two hours ago they were short USD/JPY at 106.06

Now they are long...

Here is their call ...


Shorts taken overnight have been stopped and reversed as we have now had a daily close above the down trend line which is a bullish event. The next resistance level is a daily high from Feb 27 at 107.40 but a better target would now seem to be the 200-day MA at 108.55. Support is now at 106.40 and 106.00. (SL) 00:41 GMT

I guarantee that if Benake was not speaking tonight the USD/JPY would not be where it is. No charts put that in it's equation. The TREND can and does change sometimes in a flash of a second like on Friday at 8:30 AM when Unemployment Rate Surprises at 5.5%

I am flat now so I am waiting for the right point to short it. If Bernake's HOT AIR is a fundamental fact I would look seriously at it. ALL he has done is change Reality to PERCEPTION so go with Perception until the PERCEPTION is NOT.

Call it luck, call it knowing he would speak but the Charts did NOT call it in my personal opinion.

Let's see it GO over 107.00 !!!
No - you are very wrong on that - the trend was in the same direction as the announcement...... I know, I was in that trade 5 minutes before the call.........

And really - you can use all the excuses you like but the reality is what it is....... I'm finished with you so good luck.......
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #7,616
  • Jun 9, 2008 8:05pm Jun 9, 2008 8:05pm
Quoting Warren Forex
I am going to post some technicals from the technical EXPERTS I refer to at times just to know what everyone else sees as the various support and resistance points. Two hours ago they were short USD/JPY at 106.06

Now they are long...

Here is their call ...


Shorts taken overnight have been stopped and reversed as we have now had a daily close above the down trend line which is a bullish event. The next resistance level is a daily high from Feb 27 at 107.40 but a better target would now seem to be the 200-day MA at 108.55. Support is now at 106.40 and 106.00. (SL) 00:41 GMT

I guarantee that if Benake was not speaking tonight the USD/JPY would not be where it is. No charts put that in it's equation. The TREND can and does change sometimes in a flash of a second like on Friday at 8:30 AM when Unemployment Rate Surprises at 5.5%

I am flat now so I am waiting for the right point to short it. If Bernake's HOT AIR is a fundamental fact I would look seriously at it. ALL he has done is change Reality to PERCEPTION so go with Perception until the PERCEPTION is NOT.

Call it luck, call it knowing he would speak but the Charts did NOT call it in my personal opinion.

Let's see it GO over 107.00 !!!
FED thinks they are smart sending a positive message for the dollar where the dollar was needing a little more push to break daily/weekly trendlines that could become strong supports... but reality is reality...
  • #7,617
  • Edited 8:17pm Jun 9, 2008 8:06pm | Edited 8:17pm
Quoting Warren Forex
Just to start my point of view. I might be wrong. Having said that, I doubt it.

I see that the FED is again talking UP the US Dollar. They CAN SCREAM Raise all the way to the next rate cut. They would be INSANE to raise PERIOD.

They will soon lose 100% of their credibility. Raising rates would guarantee a longer recession. Perhaps they might not cut but as long as prices for Oil goes UP, the ECB will raise. The FED holds and it equals a CUT !!!

I have not even visited WWW.JSMINESET.COM today and when I do shortly, I expect to see similar comments there. I am happy the FED is getting USD/JPY higher since it gives me a better and safer place to short from.

ON EDIT...

Here is what the REAL EXPERT SAID. I Know Not a Thing !!!

Snippet:

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Today the SEC said that they may ban Moody and Standard & Poors from rating any company with structured investment products. That sounds to me like both would be closed down because what public company is free of SIVs? The answer is none.
This situation is not only getting worse, but it is doing so at an accelerating rate.
If the Fed raises rates even a 1/4 point they would light the fuse to the final chapter long before it is due.
Citi, Merrill, UBS Face Monoline Losses, Whitney Says (Update1)
By Jeff Kearns and Bradley Keoun
June 9 (Bloomberg) -- Citigroup Inc., Merrill Lynch & Co. and UBS AG may post losses of $10 billion on bond insurance after MBIA Inc. and Ambac Financial Group Inc. lost their top credit ratings, Oppenheimer & Co. analyst Meredith Whitney said.
MBIA and Ambac, the world's largest bond insurers, had their AAA ratings cut two levels by Standard & Poor's June 5, which trimmed ratings on more than $1 trillion of securities they guaranteed. The downgrades may limit the so-called monoline insurers' ability to write new policies, putting further pressure on earnings, she wrote today in a note to investors.
``The limited earnings potential of monolines poses a risk to the value of the insurance and hedges on the subprime-related securities provided to the banks and brokers,'' Whitney wrote. ``The collateral damage could be in excess of an additional $10 billion.''
Whitney, one of the first bank analysts last year to gauge the depth of the U.S. credit crisis, said in January that losses tied to the bond insurers for all banks might top $40 billion. She didn't update her estimate. Citigroup, Merrill and UBS have taken more than $10 billion of writedowns related to the insurers, she wrote.
Citigroup, the biggest U.S. bank, and Merrill, the world's biggest brokerage, have ``underperform'' stock ratings from Whitney. Both companies are based in New York. She doesn't cover Zurich-based UBS, the European bank hardest hit by the U.S. subprime contagion.
More…

IT IS IMPOSSIBLE to have a STRONG US Dollar with the deficits and the US Dollars being printed the way it is now. The FUNDAMENTALS do not CHANGE just because Bush and the FED say they want a STRONG US DOLLAR !!!

Let Me Seee USD/JPY break 106.40 and then 106.60 and then I will have another look. I have seen this movie one thousand times in the last three years.

The CHARTS can show whatever they show. The FACTS lead the Charts. PERCEPTION changes the Charts and the TRUTH changes them back again as the Dow drops again as another Bank hits the dust.

It will be interesting to see what happens by Friday. How about a FUN POLL ?

My Call for USD/JPY for Friday, June 13, 2008 is 104.50 to 105.00 !!!

What is your Call ?

Bruce

P.S.

Another Opinion !!!

Euro Outlook
20:09 GMT June 9th EUR/USD continues to whip around in wild swings characterized by thin liquidity and exaggerated price movements. Spot opened NY around 1.5800 having tested 1.5842 in overnight trading, and summarily collapsed. Comments from Treasury Secretary Paulson that intervention is "not off the table", and more comments from the Fed's Geithner echoing Bernanke's comments last week that the Fed is paying "particular attention" to the dollar, and the central bank cannot afford to ignore the currency rallied the buck. EUR/USD collapsed to 1.5620, the low as oil fell, and closed at 1.5625/30.
Heavy EUR/GBP sales undermined the single currency, with a high PPI print sparked fears of a BoE ate hike and hammered the pair down from 0.8033 in early European trading to trigger stops in New York at 0.7980, and driving the pair to closing lows at 0.7917/20. Too many people were in the trade, they liked short GBP, and didn't like the USD so they picked EUR/GBP, more fall out likely. Trichet repeated his comments from last week regarding potential rate hikes. Noyer (BdF) also affirmed ECB will do what is necessary to battle inflation. PCW

I am not against the charts. I just know how it works. It is not the charts that tell the future. Just the moment. If we had no speakers misleading the markets nothing much would have changed. When I trade, I always know when they speak and I am very cautious. Except everytime they Bluff they RISK becoming a JOKE like Snow was everytime he said the US has a STRONG DOLLAR POLICY !!!

That as the US Dollar Index Broke 80 for the first time in 30 years.

Bruce

On Edit: Bernake was on the Calendar to Speak at 8:15 PM EST and he did. Here is something else just out about Bush...


01:05 USD/JPY: Bush Strong USD Comments Help Push Pair Higher Tokyo, June 10. A report in USA Today that US President Bush alongside US TsySec Paulson is endorsing a stronger USD helped push USD/JPY higher this morning. The catalyst for the risk was very hawkish comments from FOMC Chair Bernanke over the past hour. USD/JPY broke above 106.50 and looks headed for a test of 107.00 as a result. The Bush comments look to have helped bias the market higher. USD/JPY has traded up to as high as the 106.80/85 level so far, absorbing very strong offers from various players on the way, including Japanese exporters and option players presumably protecting option barriers at 107.00. USD/JPY remains very much bid at writing at 106.72/74. [email protected]

This is clearly a coordinated effort to TALK UP the US Dollar without RAISING RATES...

Now let us see what happens next. Hot Air lasts only so long. Let the Market's tomorrow voice an opinion. Let US see Retail Sales on Thursday !!!
{Promotion Removed}
  • #7,618
  • Jun 9, 2008 8:07pm Jun 9, 2008 8:07pm
Before I leave I will make one point........ I made 127 pips in less than 3 hours using indicators and trends along with the pivots that had changed at 17:00 ET........ Good luck.
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #7,619
  • Jun 9, 2008 8:07pm Jun 9, 2008 8:07pm
Quoting dove_alliance
No - you are very wrong on that - the trend was in the same direction as the announcement...... I know, I was in that trade 5 minutes before the call.........

And really - you can use all the excuses you like but the reality is what it is....... I'm finished with you so good luck.......
there are as many trends as timeframes.. it all depends on the timeframe you use...
there is an up trend.. but there is a nice down BIGGER trend.
  • #7,620
  • Jun 9, 2008 8:14pm Jun 9, 2008 8:14pm
Perceptions, illusions, deceptions, etc ... who cares .... my hopes of UJ dropping has diminished .....
23 traders viewing now