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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #68,541
  • May 31, 2008 2:43pm May 31, 2008 2:43pm
based on technicals, i guess we can look at this consolidation as a bullish flag, referring to tony's chart theres a pin right at a low (triple bottom)

monthly chart shows promise of a bullish breakout
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  • #68,542
  • May 31, 2008 2:48pm May 31, 2008 2:48pm
Quoting Bones
I must admit for cable to rise I do feel the dollar has to weaken as it has got stronger generally due falling commodities.
Although when you look at the dollar strength on other currencies cable has held its ground very well ??
USDX has just hit resistance.

i agree bro cable has held much better than other currencies however
bernanke's speech will give us insight on upcoming rate decision and quite honestly i dont think if cable continues taking bad news from UK and good from US it will be able to maintain its strength after all UK is 6 months behind US only difference is they have a very strong inflation policy.

and once US decides to raise rates

well u remember november 07
the exact opposite will happen
as dollar looks delicious to big boys and commodities and currencies look like beautiful shorts.
"what doesn't bankrupt me, makes me stronger" modern nietzche
  • #68,543
  • May 31, 2008 3:09pm May 31, 2008 3:09pm
Agreed Salah as soon as US show signs of a rate hike the picture will change in dollar favour.
I still believe that interest rates are the daddy of the fundamentals’ as far as currencies are concerned.
But you say US has had good numbers ,what ones are you referring to ,
I mean the housing numbers were just awful as low as the lowest you will find in years.

Then you have the UK Nationwide house price from last week .Yes they were bad but they are so far a one off (spike) until I keep seeing them type of numbers they can not be trusted .

Unlike the US the UK really needs some pull back in house prices to make them affordable to 1st time buyers which they are not .
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #68,544
  • May 31, 2008 3:24pm May 31, 2008 3:24pm
Quoting Bones
Agreed Salah as soon as US show signs of a rate hike the picture will change in dollar favour.
I still believe that interest rates are the daddy of the fundamentals’ as far as currencies are concerned.
But you say US has had good numbers ,what ones are you referring to ,
I mean the housing numbers were just awful as low as the lowest you will find in years.

Then you have the UK Nationwide house price from last week .Yes they were bad but they are so far a one off (spike) until I keep seeing them type of numbers they can not be trusted .

Unlike the US the UK really needs some pull back in house prices to make them affordable to 1st time buyers which they are not .
well first off signs of housing bottom
plus i mean US retail sales
durable goods
prelim gdp was not wat benny feared
long term transactions(which show that these invstments will pay off in coming months)
plus more which show economic resilience like no other in the world

u gotta give them credit
its time i think to see some serious comeback especially to fight oil

yeah one more thing bro
the bush age was kinda like the dark ages for USA
and ITS FINALLY COMING TO AN END
"what doesn't bankrupt me, makes me stronger" modern nietzche
  • #68,545
  • May 31, 2008 3:31pm May 31, 2008 3:31pm
Take the prelim GDP Salah if you look back over time that number ,although it was as forecast , was not good considering thier drive for synthetic growth with low interest rates.
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #68,546
  • May 31, 2008 3:39pm May 31, 2008 3:39pm
Quoting Bones
Take the prelim GDP Salah if you look back over time that number ,although it was as forecast , was not good considering thier drive for synthetic growth with low interest rates.
yeah bro i hear u
but u know at least its still better than 2007.

anyway ur right but it is hard to spark the economy when commodities and food prices are high. i mean oil is just ridiculous.

but i agree
"what doesn't bankrupt me, makes me stronger" modern nietzche
  • #68,547
  • May 31, 2008 3:42pm May 31, 2008 3:42pm
man u know with all this analysis
i hope u dont think i have a bias or nything i just want a break out of this range to make some serious pips
"what doesn't bankrupt me, makes me stronger" modern nietzche
  • #68,548
  • May 31, 2008 3:44pm May 31, 2008 3:44pm
I think there is a bottom in the US housing I must admit. We do need positive numbers to back that up though and we could be at the bottom for some time which will keep rates low.

On the other hand Ive looked at Halifax's latest report and I do not see large month on month falls yet.

They Say
· Price falls should be viewed in the context of the substantial price rises over recent years. UK prices nearly trebled (190%) over the ten years to August 2007. The average UK price rose by more than £130,000 between August 1997 and August 2007.

The chart below says if the price in 1983=100 we are now at 611.8 the highest number being in Aug last year @ 646
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #68,549
  • May 31, 2008 3:46pm May 31, 2008 3:46pm
Not at all Salah ,So far this year there has been no right or wrong on direction as there hasnt been any ,lol




Quoting salah k.
man u know with all this analysis
i hope u dont think i have a bias or nything i just want a break out of this range to make some serious pips
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #68,550
  • May 31, 2008 3:50pm May 31, 2008 3:50pm
hello all,

love this forum, got so much fundamentalist and technician... I just want us to look at this daily chart again, and see where price is at presently, and the candle formation

If we go by price action, I see cable going down, though has a very strong support to break but still going down.
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  • #68,551
  • May 31, 2008 3:53pm May 31, 2008 3:53pm
I enjoy debating it with you as we can make each other think you are a fundamentalist and I am trying to grasp fundamentals more
I am also trying to base my views on numbers over longer TF’s
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #68,552
  • May 31, 2008 3:58pm May 31, 2008 3:58pm
Quoting Bones
I enjoy debating it with you as we can make each other think you are a fundamentalist and I am trying to grasp fundamentals more
I am also trying to base my views on numbers over longer TF’s
dude u r better a great fundamentalist and technical strategist
ur views are far more advanced and detailed than mine
i am learning from u here and not the other way around
"what doesn't bankrupt me, makes me stronger" modern nietzche
  • #68,553
  • May 31, 2008 4:37pm May 31, 2008 4:37pm
Hey thanks Salah ,but im sure you would get the fundie hat,
I know I have been focused to the upside pretty much all this year since the first monthly pin and a lot of the time that has not been correct, so I am trying to question myself more and more and if we get a nice pin or PA say around the 2 mark I am ready to shift my focus this time.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #68,554
  • May 31, 2008 4:41pm May 31, 2008 4:41pm
Hi bro Im seeing a lot of long wicks there and a pretty flat top.The falling TL looks quite weak and not well respected.
Just my view I could be wrong ,



Quoting Naijafx
hello all,

love this forum, got so much fundamentalist and technician... I just want us to look at this daily chart again, and see where price is at presently, and the candle formation

If we go by price action, I see cable going down, though has a very strong support to break but still going down.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #68,555
  • May 31, 2008 4:48pm May 31, 2008 4:48pm
Quoting Bones
Hey thanks Salah ,but im sure you would get the fundie hat,
I know I have been focused to the upside pretty much all this year since the first monthly pin and a lot of the time that has not been correct, so I am trying to question myself more and more and if we get a nice pin or PA say around the 2 mark I am ready to shift my focus this time.
everybody has a certain bias all we can do is put a s/l to insure that we dont rely on hope that our bias will actually become true while our account sinks.

and thnx bro for the previous comment
means a lot.
"what doesn't bankrupt me, makes me stronger" modern nietzche
  • #68,556
  • May 31, 2008 4:57pm May 31, 2008 4:57pm
ok gentlemen
its my nap time

so goodnight and good luck in finding a reasonable explanation for cable
"what doesn't bankrupt me, makes me stronger" modern nietzche
  • #68,557
  • May 31, 2008 5:07pm May 31, 2008 5:07pm
Be warned when I post alot I am normally wrong ,lol
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #68,558
  • May 31, 2008 8:24pm May 31, 2008 8:24pm
i will be puting my sell and buy stop orders in, what every happens happens.
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #68,559
  • May 31, 2008 8:40pm May 31, 2008 8:40pm
Quoting Moe
i will be puting my sell and buy stop orders in, what every happens happens.
moe...this is very interesting in a market like this. how many pips would you say is enough room to determine which direction the trade is going to go that day? 50 pips? c'mon....i think that you can talk. your just playing hard to get
"Keep your eyes on the helpers" - Mr. Rogers
  • #68,560
  • Jun 1, 2008 3:12am Jun 1, 2008 3:12am
Quoting damonl
moe...this is very interesting in a market like this. how many pips would you say is enough room to determine which direction the trade is going to go that day? 50 pips? c'mon....i think that you can talk. your just playing hard to get
lol,i say 50 pips but it depends on your system it can go 50 pips one way then turn around and go 150 pips so you have to becareful.
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
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