USD/JPY Discussion

Quoting pinchapip

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Hey guys...I need some help.

I'm looking for a monthly chart of oil and T bonds does anybody here know a place where I can find them?

Really appreciated !!!!!!

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Quoting Schminner

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Sounds like the dollar has nowhere to go but up ..... damn my shorts ...

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Quoting Ron3226

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Warren,

Here is a snippet from your previous post...

" The jump in corporate bankruptcies has not yet been picked up by the usual indicators, which tend to lag the market, lulling investors into a false sense of security. The true losses are already known to specialists in the business, said Mr Sels."

So is this the fundamental reason for the market drifting upwards in your opinion?

Just trying to understand.

My system says long, but... the stochastic I use as a filter says it may go a bit higher but not likely. For me, the risk to reward says stay out and wait for the reversal.

Additional comment, like one of your previous posts, if price passes 105.80, I'd be shocked. I think I would still have to sit on my hands and wait for the reverse though. I just can't see much more upside.

Ron.

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Quoting Warren Forex

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Then if you lose money it is your call and your loss and on the opposire side if you make money then it is still your call not anothers.

The MAIN reason as I see it that USD/JPY is going UP at the Moment is shown to me by the fact that the Two Year US Bonds are being Sold and the Ten Year Bonds are also being SOLD as look at the incredible RISE in Yield's in the last 72 hours.

The Yield on Two Years is now 2.75% and Ten Year Yield is 4.11%

That Money is going into CASH now and that is WHY ALL other Currencies are DOWN. The Dow is now UP so some Money is Going into Equities.

If the Foreign Entities are NOW CASHING out and they just might be then once the CASH leaves the USA and goes home you will SEE a MAJOR Drop in the US Dollar Index and ALL other Currencies will REVERSE.

That is why I DO NOT CARE 100% what the Charts are showing on USD/JPY as it can change in a heartbeat and I think it will.

Gold is being HIT in a coordinated INTERVENTION. The Banks are in BIG TROUBLE. Oil is still rising and look at the Announcement made at 10:30 AM about the BIG DRAWDOWN. It caused USD/JPY to drop down along with the Dow for a few minutes.

The CHARTS cannot lead you. Each and everytime you will be whipsawed out of your positions in times like now.

This Forex Market is NOT for Amateurs unless you like being in the 95% category.

I Demo Traded 3 years from September 2003 until March 9, 2006 before I started to trade real funds.

I was good when I started but on a scale of 10, I was still a 7 and after just over 2 years of trading real funds as high as $250,000 US I would rate myself a 9...

My GOAL is a 10 so bottom line be aware of what you do not know and learn it if you want to say that every and each month of Forex Trading you made some money. I average 20% a month. I offered to teach folks how to get 10% a month BUT so FAR I have YET seen ONE PERSON open a Demo Account to TRAIN on so I guess folks do not need help to keep losing money or whatever their reason for not taking me up on my offer.

Sincerely


Bruce

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Quoting pepbullish

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Man, I am worried about Bernanke 2pm

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Quoting scyang

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How far up do you think usdjpy will go before turning downwards?

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Quoting Warren Forex

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I just had a long and interesting conversation with an expert trader. We both agree that the KEY is the price of Oil. If Oil drops to $110.00 the Dow could rally and Gold could drop. Support for Gold is at $850.00 so we now need to watch and adjust as things move forward.

Bruce

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Quoting scyang

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How fast oil and gold bulls have turned into bears! Is the trader expert saying that the tide has turned and now oil is in a down trend? That will affect everything in forex since most currency pairs follow oil prices.

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Quoting Warren Forex

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RESISTANCE and Strong is at 13,000 so that is the goalpost.

105.75 needs to be BROKEN and then 106.00

We are NOT THERE YET !!!

Using a 25 PIP Stop Loss and selling one Unit of 100K at a time. Capital required is $1000 US for a Standard Account. If You Had A Demo Account Now With $50,000 US in it and NOT RISKING more than 20% of the Capital for Demo Traders ONLY ... Short One Position of 100K at 105.60 with a STOP at 105.85

It is near the Top of the One Minute Bollinger Band Now. If it goes to 105.80 Then short another one at 105.80 and STOP. Put your 2ND Stop at 106.05

Your Maximum LOSS is 50 PIPS or $500 US on Capital used of $2000 US or 1% of Your Demo Accouint Funds of $50,000 US (FXCM or Other)

So Risk is 1% and Loss Maximum is $500

The Reward could be much more than that. If it goes your way then lower your STOP to lock in at least 10 PIPS of Profit on each Position if you do get to the 2ND Position at 105.80

You can only be a WINNER once you have locked in the 10 PIPS profit. Keep lowering your STOP or STOPS as it keeps dropping every 10 PIPS if it does drop.

Does Everyone Understand The DEMO PLAN ?

If Not Please Post Your Questions here.

Bruce

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Quoting Warren Forex

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There was a SIGNIFICANT drop in Oil Inventory today YET Oil is down.

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Quoting Warren Forex

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RESISTANCE and Strong is at 13,000 so that is the goalpost.

105.75 needs to be BROKEN and then 106.00

We are NOT THERE YET !!!

Using a 25 PIP Stop Loss and selling one Unit of 100K at a time. Capital required is $1000 US for a Standard Account. If You Had A Demo Account Now With $50,000 US in it and NOT RISKING more than 20% of the Capital for Demo Traders ONLY ... Short One Position of 100K at 105.60 with a STOP at 105.85

It is near the Top of the One Minute Bollinger Band Now. If it goes to 105.80 Then short another one at 105.80 and STOP. Put your 2ND Stop at 106.05

Your Maximum LOSS is 50 PIPS or $500 US on Capital used of $2000 US or 1% of Your Demo Accouint Funds of $50,000 US (FXCM or Other)

So Risk is 1% and Loss Maximum is $500

The Reward could be much more than that. If it goes your way then lower your STOP to lock in at least 10 PIPS of Profit on each Position if you do get to the 2ND Position at 105.80

You can only be a WINNER once you have locked in the 10 PIPS profit. Keep lowering your STOP or STOPS as it keeps dropping every 10 PIPS if it does drop.

Does Everyone Understand The DEMO PLAN ?

If Not Please Post Your Questions here.

Bruce

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Quoting Warren Forex

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16:36 USD/JPY: US Yield, Stocks Rise, Oil Plunge Bolster Buck New York, May 29. The DJIA is now up 74pts, 2-yr Tsy yields are up 15.2bp, while Gold is down nearly $25 and crude is down $2.81/bbl. This is all part of a virtuous emerging cycle for the dollar that stems from the expectation that the Fed is being forced to confront inflation demons, with Fischer's comments late yesterday reinforcing those expectations, rightly or wrongly. The bottom line is that the market is doing its own tightening, whether the Fed likes it or not, and that's good news for the dollar if you believe interest rates are key to the demand for a currency and the amount of money a central bank allows to be created is central to the value of that currency.


USD/JPY is at 105.60 last, a shade away from the May 2 peak at 105.69. We are tracking the downtrend line from last July that today stands as resistance at 106.60-65 depending on your chart service. This pair has done very little direction-wise since mid April and now has a large congestion pattern from which to escape; often a launching pad for a major new trend. Bids are now seen defending 105 on a pullback. [email protected]

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Quoting Ron3226

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I'm game, I'll demo it with you, getting in a little late as I just read this so my first position is short @ 105.69 s/l 105.94... I adjusted stop upwards due to the late entry.

Darnit, as I was typing it another entry came, so I entered again... late Entry 2= 105.83 s/l 106.08

Live Entry @ 105.83 as it goes with my trading plan.

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Quoting Warren Forex

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You would have been stopped out of your 105.60 Position at 105.85 for a 25 PIP loss or $250 US and you now have a NEW Position at 105.80 with your STOP set at 106.05

You Need to reach 105.60 for break even and below that for a profit BUT you protected your Capital in a very uncertain market.

It is the way of trading and thinking that I am trying to show you. Risk Management. Good Entry Points. A Trade Plan. Proper Exit or Profit Points. Understand the Charts. Good Fundamental Knowledge. Trade With The Proper Amount of Funds.

Be Calm. Be Rational. Eliminate Fear and Greed. Have FUN !!!

Make Good Dollars if you know what you are doing. Practise on Demo Accounts to get your confidence level up. Do Not Trade For The Sake of Trading.

It works for me.


Bruce

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