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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #7,361
  • May 29, 2008 1:28am May 29, 2008 1:28am
The curent trend is still bullish. I think we might see 105.30 before droping. Also Prelim GDP is predicted to be at + 0.3 %. Lately, no matter what the reality is, the news are making USD stronger. Even the worst predicted news are better or even good when they come out.
DJ up. Gold down. Oil down. Eur-Jpy down.
  • #7,362
  • May 29, 2008 1:56am May 29, 2008 1:56am
Quoting NuckingFuts
Short too @ 104.90.

Bearish divergence is screaming at me SHORT BABY SHORT

Keeping a close eye on gold and oil, in-case it decides to foil my plan.
Its a good idea to watch the Swissy too - its up over 50 pips in the last 90 mins and UJ will have to follow......
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #7,363
  • May 29, 2008 1:57am May 29, 2008 1:57am
Challenging 105.16 at the moment.

Not gonna come down anytime soon... At least not for another hour or so.

Just my gut feeling, though.
  • #7,364
  • May 29, 2008 2:08am May 29, 2008 2:08am
Wow the USDJPY volume just dried up. Where iseverybody all of a sudden?
  • #7,365
  • May 29, 2008 2:10am May 29, 2008 2:10am
Quoting PipVip
Wow the USDJPY volume just dried up. Where iseverybody all of a sudden?
Where do you check the volume? anybody?
... /$ -> LONG
  • #7,366
  • May 29, 2008 2:13am May 29, 2008 2:13am
Swiss news coming in 3 minutes
  • #7,367
  • May 29, 2008 2:13am May 29, 2008 2:13am
Quoting MaZae
Where do you check the volume? anybody?
You don't have the exact figures for the volume.

You can determine it manually. Like when the sticks are moving in tight ranges sideways.
  • #7,368
  • May 29, 2008 2:15am May 29, 2008 2:15am
Quoting baronfei
You don't have the exact figures for the volume.

You can determine it manually. Like when the sticks are moving in tight ranges sideways.
so its more a "feeling thing" than just math, or what?
... /$ -> LONG
  • #7,369
  • May 29, 2008 2:59am May 29, 2008 2:59am
Quoting MaZae
so its more a "feeling thing" than just math, or what?
Yeah, if you put it that way bro.

When the volume is very low normally the market moves sideways... within 20 - 30 pips range depending on the pair. Particularly observed in the late US - early Asian hours.

See yellow-circled area as attached bro.
Attached Image
  • #7,370
  • Edited 6:53am May 29, 2008 6:26am | Edited 6:53am
Quoting baronfei
Yeah, if you put it that way bro.

When the volume is very low normally the market moves sideways... within 20 - 30 pips range depending on the pair. Particularly observed in the late US - early Asian hours.

See yellow-circled area as attached bro.

We are in a very unique set of circumstances and I cannot say that I understand it completely. The Euro is down. EUR/JPY has retraced. Oil is down and Gold is down. The Dow Futures are down however the NEW factor that we NOW have is this. TREMENDOUS amounts of money is going out of the USA Two Year Bonds as they are sold the Yield keeps going UP !!!

2 or 3 Basis Points is a lot normally yet in the last 2 weeks and more so in the last few days the Yield is now 2.73% which is amazing since the FED Discount Rate is 2.00%

What do the numbers mean. Billions of Dollars and maybe even closer to a Trillion is going somewhere ? Where and Why ? Something NOT NORMAL is going on that few are aware of. Much is going into CASH. The US Dollar is being boosted up. Just look at the US Dollar Index !!!

I need to find out why to understand it. That is why things are not behaving normally at the moment if Normal ever can be used in Forex.

Bruce

US Dollar Index Link:

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=s
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  • #7,371
  • May 29, 2008 6:56am May 29, 2008 6:56am
Quoting Warren Forex
We are in a very unique set of circumstances and I cannot say that I understand it completely. The Euro is down. EUR/JPY has retraced. Oil is down and Gold is down. The Dow Futures are down however the NEW factor that we NOW have is this. TREMENDOUS amounts of money is going out of the USA Two Year Bonds as they are sold the Yield keeps going UP !!!

2 or 3 Basis Points is a lot normally yet in the last 2 weeks and more so in the last few days the Yield is now 2.73% which is amazing since the FED Discount Rate is 2.00%

What do the numbers mean. Billions of Dollars and maybe even closer to a Trillion is going somewhere ? Where and Why ? Something NOT NORMAL is going on that few are aware of. Much is going into CASH. The US Dollar is being boosted up. Just look at the US Dollar Index !!!

I need to find out why to understand it. That is why things are not behaving normally at the moment if Normal ever can be used in Forex.

Bruce

US Dollar Index Link:

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=s



11:36 GMT May 29th USD/JPY and JPY crosses were lent support from firmer stock markets in Asia overnight. Reports that North Korean supreme leader Kim Jong-Il was dead, possibly the result of an assassination, aided the overall gains. Denials were heard later in the session but stocks held firm, the Nikkei closed up a huge 415pts. This provided the impetus for fresh USD/JPY demand in early London - the pair breaking Asia"s 105.03 peak and extending highs to 105.30. Broader based USD demand also playing its part, with EUR/USD taking out alleged downside barriers at 1.5550. Offers in front of and just above yesterday"s 105.32 peak continue to cap the pair, which has spent the majority of the London session consolidating in the 105.10-20 area. Option barriers reside at 105.50, although the lack of any near term maturities is likely to ensure that defence is minimal. A large vanilla expiry lurks at 105.60 and could well draw if those barriers break. EUR/JPY: Left its 164.23 Asian range peak intact and instead came softer with EUR/USD - breaching its 163.67 low to touch 163.48, before returning to the upper 163"s. [email protected].
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  • #7,372
  • May 29, 2008 8:02am May 29, 2008 8:02am
I'm afraid of stating the obvious here but we are in a "pivot" area. The channel we entered on April 18 is ready to give up or be reconfirmed. So at this point it is normal for everybody to be uncertain. We need more data to be able to make an educated decision. In my opinion to take a trade at this point is pure gamble...unless you have acces to privileged information.

That said my bias (short term) is for a retest of the 105.70 area then down at least to the middle of the channel(median term)...than up again(long term). But the "data" will tell.
For he that would be deceived, let him.
  • #7,373
  • May 29, 2008 8:21am May 29, 2008 8:21am
Quoting pinchapip
I'm afraid of stating the obvious here but we are in a "pivot" area. The channel we entered on April 18 is ready to give up or be reconfirmed. So at this point it is normal for everybody to be uncertain. We need more data to be able to make an educated decision. In my opinion to take a trade at this point is pure gamble...unless you have acces to privileged information.

That said my bias (short term) is for a retest of the 105.70 area then down at least to the middle of the channel(median term)...than up again(long term). But the "data" will tell.
I follow the technical charts of one of the best traders that I have found on the internet. His name is DC Bonta. His daily video calls for a new Resistance Level to short USD/JPY from. It is 105.50 to 105.60

Based on technicals and Fundamentals I would agree with him. First however I would like to se 105.40 breached. That is 100 Basis points above the last Strong Resistance a few days ago of 104.40

The Dow Futures are down and I would short in blocks of 100K as is my style at levels above 105.20 keeping in mind to look at the one minute or five minute TOP of the Bollinger band if you intraday trade FX.

That is the way that I see it. STOPS ABOVE 105.60 or EVEN 105.70 are Essential since if it gets there I could change my position about the Direction of this Currency Pair.


Bruce
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  • #7,374
  • Edited 9:06am May 29, 2008 8:23am | Edited 9:06am
USD/JPY is forming a bearish butterfly so if we break 105.40/60 reasistance zone probably we'll go to 106.20 and then there will be good place for set our sell orders,
http://img261.imageshack.us/my.php?image=uj1234tt1.gif
Good luck guys
  • #7,375
  • May 29, 2008 8:48am May 29, 2008 8:48am
Pipsmaker - please remove your oversized chart and replace it with a correct, reduced size chart - you current one is screwing up this page.

Thanks.
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #7,376
  • May 29, 2008 9:11am May 29, 2008 9:11am
Quoting Warren Forex
I follow the technical charts of one of the best traders that I have found on the internet. His name is DC Bonta. His daily video calls for a new Resistance Level to short USD/JPY from. It is 105.50 to 105.60

Based on technicals and Fundamentals I would agree with him. First however I would like to se 105.40 breached. That is 100 Basis points above the last Strong Resistance a few days ago of 104.40

The Dow Futures are down and I would short in blocks of 100K as is my style at levels above 105.20 keeping in mind to look at the one minute or five minute TOP of the Bollinger band if you intraday trade FX.

That is the way that I see it. STOPS ABOVE 105.60 or EVEN 105.70 are Essential since if it gets there I could change my position about the Direction of this Currency Pair.


Bruce
For me, I think this may be the best post I've read from you in a while, something I can finally understand...

If you throw a 14,3,3 stochastic on your chart, and look at the different time frames, you will see that it is plastered against the roof, it's only a matter of time until it comes down. In particular the 1 hour and 4 hour are at very high levels.

Still with that being said the market seems to continue higher, and I think your guru is correct that it will approach those areas then reverse.

So my call is that it will touch 105.60 or just shy, then reverse.

Having said that I am flat until it either gets closer to 105.60 or it drops below 104.50.

Bearish and waiting... must learn patience.

Happy Trading

Ron.
  • #7,377
  • May 29, 2008 9:19am May 29, 2008 9:19am
Quoting PipsMaker
USD/JPY is forming a bearish butterfly so if we break 105.40/60 reasistance zone probably we'll go to 106.20 and then there will be good place for set our sell orders,
http://img261.imageshack.us/my.php?image=uj1234tt1.gif
Good luck guys
I do not see it but I could be wrong. However if it gets over 105.75 I will change my view once I understand why it happened. There is Important Data Out Tomorrow in the USA.


Bruce
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  • #7,378
  • May 29, 2008 9:27am May 29, 2008 9:27am
Dollar seems to be very strong, don't know why ....
  • #7,379
  • Edited 9:39am May 29, 2008 9:35am | Edited 9:39am
Quoting Warren Forex
We are in a very unique set of circumstances and I cannot say that I understand it completely. The Euro is down. EUR/JPY has retraced. Oil is down and Gold is down. The Dow Futures are down however the NEW factor that we NOW have is this. TREMENDOUS amounts of money is going out of the USA Two Year Bonds as they are sold the Yield keeps going UP !!!

2 or 3 Basis Points is a lot normally yet in the last 2 weeks and more so in the last few days the Yield is now 2.73% which is amazing since the FED Discount Rate is 2.00%

What do the numbers mean. Billions of Dollars and maybe even closer to a Trillion is going somewhere ? Where and Why ? Something NOT NORMAL is going on that few are aware of. Much is going into CASH. The US Dollar is being boosted up. Just look at the US Dollar Index !!!

I need to find out why to understand it. That is why things are not behaving normally at the moment if Normal ever can be used in Forex.

Bruce

US Dollar Index Link:

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=s

This Should Help Everyone Understand !!!

After I did the above post this morning I found this article.

LinK:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/mai.../cndebt129.xml

Snippet:

US and European debt markets flash new warning signals


By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor

Last Updated: 6:40am BST 29/05/2008





The debt markets in the US and Europe have begun to flash warning signals yet again, raising fears that the global credit crisis could be entering another turbulent phase.
The cost of insuring against default on the bonds of Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch and other big banks and brokerages has surged over the last two weeks, threatening to reach the stress levels seen before the Bear Stearns debacle. Spreads on inter-bank Libor and Euribor rates in Europe are back near record levels.
Credit default swaps (CDS) on Lehman debt have risen from around 130 in late April to 247, while Merrill debt has spiked to 196. Most analysts had thought the coast was clear for such broker dealers after the US Federal Reserve invoked an emergency clause in March to let them borrow directly from its lending window.
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  • #7,380
  • Edited 9:50am May 29, 2008 9:45am | Edited 9:50am
Warren,

Here is a snippet from your previous post...

" The jump in corporate bankruptcies has not yet been picked up by the usual indicators, which tend to lag the market, lulling investors into a false sense of security. The true losses are already known to specialists in the business, said Mr Sels."

So is this the fundamental reason for the market drifting upwards in your opinion?

Just trying to understand.

My system says long, but... the stochastic I use as a filter says it may go a bit higher but not likely. For me, the risk to reward says stay out and wait for the reversal.

Additional comment, like one of your previous posts, if price passes 105.80, I'd be shocked. I think I would still have to sit on my hands and wait for the reverse though. I just can't see much more upside.

Ron.
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