USD/JPY Discussion

With Respect !

Dear Moderator of Forex Factory

Did I do something wrong that caused my in depth reflective post to be put into the recycle bin as SBrickman has pointed out ?

Thanks for your hoped for response.

Bruce

Wow, even Al-Qaeda has the power to move currencies ...

A bullish doji is forming on the 60M charts. It is also right near former resistance (now support). If it closes on a doji (there are still 30 minutes left) then I am looking for a 20-40 pip rise at minimum.

My charts and analysis here:
http://piphut.com/2008/05/technical-...-doji-forming/

I'm in the same line of tought norrismp. First resistance area above could be a strong trendline @ 105 handle, above that 78.2 fib @ 105.5...finally the last line of defense is a monthly trendline @ 106 handle.

Lets see how it plays out

new channel

I guess it is if you live in Australia where everythings upside down / back to front.......http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon11.gif

Trend very strong.....Hundred over pips already...

Why is UJ dropping ????

getting the profits of the news spike and the already priced in news.

So will it continue to drop ???

I have a 61.8 fib retracement from the lows of 103.88 to the high at 105.30. Looking for it to go back up.

Before 103.88 is the 104.44 support. I hope to break that support.

iam not sure that we'll back to 105.30

I think it would go down to 104.40 area.....And playing around that area....

guys, i think a triple top is forming.. what do you think??

Look; since apr-22 we have the first rally, tops bounced back within the range 105.70-30 and the neckline is @ 102.70 (aprox). Confirmation is still needed

I will not be astonished if this pair goes and retests the two digit region again, but I really believe that we should prepare ourselves to put our bear hat aside for a while. I'm pretty sure that the dollar will start to slowly recover and we will look back in a few years and say "what a nice uptrend, I wish I had bought down there at the 105 area!!!"

Cheers!!!!

I see the same thing. Any thoughts anyone?

Any thoughts as to why USD/JPY is moving up with oil? Oil lokks like it's crossing 50 sma on hourly.

There are many reasons why the US Dollar will continue to go down. For the moment I will explain why there is some confusion. Let us start with Oil and as you can see there was a head fake after two almost down days. Then we have Gold getting hit hard and going below $900 but now it is coming back. The Dow is down at the moment and the Euro is weaker so for awhile the EUR/JPY carry trade selling Yen and Buying Euro sent USD/JPY over 105.00 to 105.325

The real CLUE is in the Two Year US Treasuries that now has a yield of 2.60% whereas it was at 2.44% days ago. Bottom Line the Bonds are being sold and the yield goes up. Where is the money going ? Not into the Dow, Not into Gold, Not all into Oil so for the moment it is being parked in CASH. That has given the US Dollar Index some bounce back yet ALL the data of the last few days was very bad.

There is massive DEBT to be written down and Housing is nowhere close to a bottom. NFP is next Friday. The War rages on and on and the debt is out of control.

Keep cool, use Risk Management, Be alert and soon USD/JPY will be heading for 102.50

I do not know when but a bad jobless number over 400,000 tomorrow and the about to be Dow drop should send the Yen on it's way.

Get the facts as they are not what you hope they are. This is NOT DOOM and GLOOM stuff. Just look at the facts and ignore the BS and the Spin.

The FED is causing this MESS but cutting interest rates and printing way too much money and that is exacyly what is happening. We have a recession in the USA now. Warren thinks so as I do too.



Here is some material I just got by email on Lehman so I am giving you part of it via copy and paste.

Lehman management has not been terribly forthcoming about reporting quarterly losses and write-downs. Brad Hintz from Bernstein Research hinted that fuzzy math produced Lehman’s “strong” March earnings report: “We believe the quality of these earnings was weak, as the firm benefited from a lower tax rate and enjoyed a $600 million mark-to-market gain on its liabilities.”

That’s a polite understatement. Believe it or not, accounting rules allow investment banks to book a profit when the value of the bonds they have issued FALL. Follow along with this crazy logic if you can: Because the holders of Lehman’s bonds became fearful that Lehman would declare bankruptcy, the bondholders dumped the bonds at very low prices. Therefore, because Lehman’s bond prices tumbled, Lehman could, theoretically, buy back the bonds at prices much lower than the stated value of those bonds on Lehman’s balance sheet. As a result, this bizarre accounting rule concludes, Lehman can book a “profit” on the difference between the issue price of its bonds and the depressed market prices. Taken to an extreme, Lehman could probably post one if its most profitable quarters ever, just by declaring bankruptcy!

Obviously, falling bond prices indicate financial stress, and certainly do not produce sustainable, high-quality earnings. Such “earnings” do not generate cash or create any value of shareholders whatsoever.

Net-net, Lehman is still facing the likelihood of losing tens of billions of dollars over the course of the next few years. As losses pile up, Lehman will have to raise capital. That means flooding the market with LEH shares. Lehman may have to issue hundreds of millions of new shares at a discount to rebuild its capital shortfall, severely diluting the existing shareholders.

David Einhorn, an accomplished hedge fund manager, recently explained why he’s still selling short Lehman shares. In a speech at the April 8 Grant’s conference, he said that Lehman may have to boost its capital by as much as $30 to $70 billion. If Einhorn’s guesstimate is anywhere close to the mark, Lehman’s shareholders are in for a very rough ride.

The worst might be over for the financial sector, just like so many investors seem to believe. But a lot of bad stuff is still rolling our way. For the rest of 2008, therefore, investors might want to take their cue from Credit Suisse CEO Brady Dougan when he said, “The number of times people have seen the light at the end of the tunnel, it turned out to be a train coming down the tracks.”
Regards,
Dan Amoss

Bruce ... I am not making this up folks this is the most dangerous situation we have ever faced period. The Fiat system is in meltdown. They are fighting for their future. Oil is over $120 and Gold Over $900 and The Euro over $1.55 and The Game is ending after 95 years of the FED robbing their citizens.

Give them 5 more years before it collapses.

Bruce

i'm long from 104.60 TP 105.16