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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #7,301
  • May 27, 2008 7:31am May 27, 2008 7:31am
Quoting Ron3226
So house sales are better than expected, and consumer confidence is down... where to now?

North? South? or East? >>



Ron.
always east
  • #7,302
  • May 27, 2008 7:35am May 27, 2008 7:35am
Quoting emda
always east
Very true!

Just look at the daily chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY2Mayi.png Size: 157 KB
  • #7,303
  • May 27, 2008 7:52am May 27, 2008 7:52am
At about the time the USD/JPY hit the HIGH so far today of 104.342 on the FXCM platform that I trade from I got a HEADS UP from a service that I am trying on FX Option Calls. By reason it was on the USD/JPY and it said WE CALL USD/JPY now to GO to 106.00

Of course other people get this and if they accept the information as valid then that adds to the move UP short term in that currency pair. Their call was based on their interpretation of the technicals.

Unfortunately they do not have the skills that we have here so they are way out of wack with reality.

I really hope it is clear how the change from REALITY to PERCEPTION to REALITY can happen in hours. In the end the NEW was TERRIBLE. Worst Case Schiller Number and that is a very accepted INDEPENDENT survey. Then Consumer Confidence way below 60 and TERRIBLE.

So what do the SPINNERS talk about a BETTER in their fantasies than Expected New Home Sales Number NOT.

What they do not explain is that last month's was revised down so compared to this months number it is an improvement. Of course when they probably revise down this month's number NO BODY will say "REMBER WHEN"

What a Game. Just Learn it and You Become a BIG WINNER.

Bruce
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  • #7,304
  • May 27, 2008 8:09am May 27, 2008 8:09am
Again and Again The STUPID SPIN...

Here is what she said just now. An unexpected rise in New Home Sales from last month has given an unexpected boost to stocks. She did mention that last month's data was lowered. Why not explain that by bring the number down by 26,000 or so and this number I think was 1000 higher than consensus that BOTTOM LINE the COMMENT is NONSENSICAL as Bob Pisano just mentioned. The NUMBERS are TERRIBLE and getting worse as was confirmed by the Case Schiller Number at 9:00 AM

Do Not Forget the FALSE RUMOR put out on purpose at 8:45 AM. If not for that The Dow would be down 50 now and the FED would not have had a reason to INTERVENE in Gold and Oil as I predicted earlier today in one of my posts.

Please learn the unwritten rules of the game and add to that technical knowledge on support and resistance that can change in seconds based on whatever new game playing is going on. In the end as I have said before the MAIN PURPOSE of Forex is to BUY and SELL inventory at the best possible price. Along the way are the losers and the 5% Winners.

GO TO THE PLACE OF THE WINNERS TO LEARN HOW TO BE A WINNER.

The BEST PLACE on Forex Factory in my humble and honest opinion.


Bruce
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  • #7,305
  • May 27, 2008 8:13am May 27, 2008 8:13am
Quoting eneloop
The 1st picture was posted by me on May 21, 2008.

The 2nd picture is as at today.

So, will USDJPY comes down eventually.

I welcome comments and inputs here and also in my new thread at:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=88492

The Place of the Winners
Please Check Out Our NEW Home. I will soon start posting over there.

Look at USD/JPY now at 104.03 Bid and the Dow up 8.72

Best To All !!!


Bruce
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  • #7,306
  • May 27, 2008 8:19am May 27, 2008 8:19am
Quoting Warren Forex
Please Check Out Our NEW Home. I will soon start posting over there.

Look at USD/JPY now at 104.03 Bid and the Dow up 8.72

Best To All !!!


Bruce
I have other business to attend to. Have a great FX trading day. See you later.

Bruce
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  • #7,307
  • May 27, 2008 9:43am May 27, 2008 9:43am
Quoting emda
thanks Bruce

dow going up as expected... to match UJ
UJ broke channel up.. now it ahs to retest is as support and continue going up.. all if news is good.

retested
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj retest.png Size: 22 KB
  • #7,308
  • Edited 12:22pm May 27, 2008 12:18pm | Edited 12:22pm
Quoting emda
retested
Dow Up 81.50 and USD/JPY is holding below the High of 103.342 while EUR/JPY is near the Top at 163.68 with High at 163.91

Oil is Down $3.65 and Gold is Down $20.8 and interestingly the Two Year US Treasuries are now at 2.51% so money is flowing out of the Two Years and going elsewhere. Sell Bonds and Yields GO UP !!! With Money going out of Oil and Gold and the Two Years the flow is going somewhere and it not all going into the Dow.

US Dollar Index is UP so that is where we are with 45 minutes before the close of the New York Markets at 4:00 PM.

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=s

Notice how it has rised about 50 basis points since about 2:00 AM today. Looks like we had some coordinated intervention just as the Dow was ready to crash BIG TIME.

That's my summary of things for the moment. Please go to my favorite Website WWW.JSMINESET.COM to find out what really went on today without the spin and BS.

Bruce
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  • #7,309
  • May 27, 2008 12:41pm May 27, 2008 12:41pm
Quoting emda
always east
Why is West not an option ....
  • #7,310
  • May 27, 2008 12:42pm May 27, 2008 12:42pm
Quoting emda
Soros: Worst is Yet To Come in Global Credit Meltdown

By EDMUND CONWAY, The Daily Telegraph
May 21, 2008
One of the world's most powerful financial traders warned yesterday that the world is enduring its "worst financial crisis" since the Great Depression and that Britain is heading for a recession.

In comments that will heighten families' fears about their finances, George Soros said the worst of the credit crisis could be yet to come, with the world economy enduring a series of major aftershocks.
The billionaire investor also predicted that Britain is facing a lengthy housing slump, with homeowners seeing property values plunge.
Mr. Soros said, "Financial institutions have been severely damaged and we are currently in a situation that will probably, I think almost inevitably, result in a recession, certainly in the United States and most likely in England also."
The warning, delivered on BBC Radio 4's "Today" show, is significant because Mr. Soros, a successful hedge fund manager, made an estimated $2 billion in 1992 by betting that Britain would be forced to withdraw from the Exchange Rate Mechanism.
Mr. Soros said that while the "acute phase" of the crisis in financial markets has now passed, the more painful economic repercussions are yet to hit.
He said: "You are going to have a few years of very different conditions than the ones you've been used to over the last 25 years. We've had a pretty serious crunch but the acute phase is behind us and now we've yet to feel the effects. In the case of the U.K. we've had a housing bubble that in terms of price increases has been greater than in the United States.
"That's also now going to be corrected — it is taking longer than in the States because you haven't had over-building like in America." House prices have tumbled sharply since the start of the year, with the government now acknowledging that prices are likely to fall by a tenth or perhaps more this year alone.
The falls have led to fears that many families will face negative equity, where their mortgage becomes more expensive than the value of their home.
In a further blow, the Bank of England last week indicated that in order to keep runaway inflation under control it may not be able to cut interest rates again this year.
The credit crisis has left many families facing a serious mortgage "shock" this year, as they renew their fixed rate deals and are forced on to significantly more expensive plans. Many households with poor credit records are struggling to secure a new deal at all, instead being forced on to an expensive standard variable rate.
Mr. Soros said this meant the prospects for the economy were even gloomier.
He claims in his forthcoming book that the financial crisis is the worst since the Great Depression in the 1930s, as it follows a major debt boom that has lasted a quarter of a century.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/telegraph...tid=1571653321


Bruce
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  • #7,311
  • May 27, 2008 12:45pm May 27, 2008 12:45pm
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2...view-with.html

Very Important...Listen and watch the Video from a real expert. He called this mess one year before everyone else.


Bruce
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  • #7,312
  • May 27, 2008 12:50pm May 27, 2008 12:50pm
Hi

What was the reason for Oil and Gold falling today. Am I right saying that it took Eur/usd down. If I am right then why Dow didnt went up today. The news numbers for Usd havent been spectacular so why the sudden drop. On the other hand i see yen pairs going up. Tomorrow news are speculated to be worse for usd. Should I expect to see euro going back on its track tomorrow with the still positive sentiment for euro (testing 1.5800 again)?
Eur/usd being now in consolidation between 1.5700-1.5800.


I have sold usd/chf at 1.0300 seeing nice pinbar but my tp (1.0277) was missed for 2 pips becouse of my mistake on spread calculating. I didnt move the sl lower and i gave 5% of my account to charity. Lesson learned but fundamental questions are still there.

Cheers
Green
  • #7,313
  • May 27, 2008 12:51pm May 27, 2008 12:51pm
Quoting Warren Forex
Again and Again The STUPID SPIN...

Here is what she said just now. An unexpected rise in New Home Sales from last month has given an unexpected boost to stocks. She did mention that last month's data was lowered. Why not explain that by bring the number down by 26,000 or so and this number I think was 1000 higher than consensus that BOTTOM LINE the COMMENT is NONSENSICAL as Bob Pisano just mentioned. The NUMBERS are TERRIBLE and getting worse as was confirmed by the Case Schiller Number at 9:00 AM

Do Not Forget the FALSE RUMOR put out on purpose at 8:45 AM. If not for that The Dow would be down 50 now and the FED would not have had a reason to INTERVENE in Gold and Oil as I predicted earlier today in one of my posts.

Please learn the unwritten rules of the game and add to that technical knowledge on support and resistance that can change in seconds based on whatever new game playing is going on. In the end as I have said before the MAIN PURPOSE of Forex is to BUY and SELL inventory at the best possible price. Along the way are the losers and the 5% Winners.

GO TO THE PLACE OF THE WINNERS TO LEARN HOW TO BE A WINNER.

The BEST PLACE on Forex Factory in my humble and honest opinion.


Bruce

Have A Look and compare things to the Spin and BS that worked short term to get the Dow up...


http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2...f-21-from.html


Bruce
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  • #7,314
  • May 27, 2008 1:02pm May 27, 2008 1:02pm
Quoting Greenhaze
Hi

What was the reason for Oil and Gold falling today. Am I right saying that it took Eur/usd down. If I am right then why Dow didnt went up today. The news numbers for Usd havent been spectacular so why the sudden drop. On the other hand i see yen pairs going up. Tomorrow news are speculated to be worse for usd. Should I expect to see euro going back on its track tomorrow with the still positive sentiment for euro (testing 1.5800 again)?
Eur/usd being now in consolidation between 1.5700-1.5800.


I have sold usd/chf at 1.0300 seeing nice pinbar but my tp (1.0277) was missed for 2 pips becouse of my mistake on spread calculating. I didnt move the sl lower and i gave 5% of my account to charity. Lesson learned but fundamental questions are still there.

Cheers
Green

If you read the earlier posts of mine today you will find the answers to your questions. Basically Oil went down and Gold went down while the Dow went up. Since this is a Carry Trade currency (USD/JPY) it went up along with the Dow. When the US Dollar Index goes up it means usually the other main currencies go down. EUR/USD went down because of weakness in some overnight data in the Euro zone.

There probably was Intervention by the FED today since the housing data and especially Consumer Confidence was TERRIBLE.

So on fundamentals short term USD/JPY should have headed down BUT Intervention and Spin kept it up short term.


Bruce
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  • #7,315
  • May 27, 2008 1:49pm May 27, 2008 1:49pm
Oil is the key if there was any intervention involved.

Quoting Warren Forex
If you read the earlier posts of mine today you will find the answers to your questions. Basically Oil went down and Gold went down while the Dow went up. Since this is a Carry Trade currency (USD/JPY) it went up along with the Dow. When the US Dollar Index goes up it means usually the other main currencies go down. EUR/USD went down because of weakness in some overnight data in the Euro zone.

There probably was Intervention by the FED today since the housing data and especially Consumer Confidence was TERRIBLE.

So on fundamentals short term USD/JPY should have headed down BUT Intervention and Spin kept it up short term.


Bruce
  • #7,316
  • May 27, 2008 4:14pm May 27, 2008 4:14pm
Quoting Warren Forex
If you read the earlier posts of mine today you will find the answers to your questions. Basically Oil went down and Gold went down while the Dow went up. Since this is a Carry Trade currency (USD/JPY) it went up along with the Dow. When the US Dollar Index goes up it means usually the other main currencies go down. EUR/USD went down because of weakness in some overnight data in the Euro zone.

There probably was Intervention by the FED today since the housing data and especially Consumer Confidence was TERRIBLE.

So on fundamentals short term USD/JPY should have headed down BUT Intervention and Spin kept it up short term.


Bruce

Today or last night a new thread was started. I just posted there and I will include the link so that you can go over there if you wish. I will post on this thread from time to time but I probably will be on that thread very often.

The purpose of that New Thread will be clear to any that go there to learn how to win in forex.

Here is the link to that thread and the important post that I just did there.

We look forward to see all posters from this USD/JPY thread come over and join with us in order to grow, learn, share and become financially wealthy if you are ready to invest the time and effort to become a winner. If you already are a financial winner then please come over and share some of your time and knowledge with us and perhaps make some good friends in life.

Link:


http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...09#post2022509


Bruce
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  • #7,317
  • May 27, 2008 4:34pm May 27, 2008 4:34pm
Forex is a Warzone.
  • #7,318
  • May 27, 2008 6:29pm May 27, 2008 6:29pm
Looks like UJ is heading down again .....
  • #7,319
  • May 27, 2008 7:10pm May 27, 2008 7:10pm
Quoting Schminner
Looks like UJ is heading down again .....

01:46 USD/JPY: Move Down Also Tied To News Of Fresh Al-Qaeda Threats Tokyo, May 28. US media reports that Al-Qaeda is threatening fresh chemical, biological and nuclear attacks on the West look to be pressuring USD/JPY along side offering interest from those paring down longs. EUR/JPY too looks to be under a bit pressure with Europe also under threat. Asia looks to be the mini-haven of choice in this scenario. Though down, USD/JPY is seen some support around 104.00. Light trader stops are still seen below however. Renewed bidding interest is noted below though and especially towards 103.50. [email protected]
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  • #7,320
  • May 27, 2008 7:29pm May 27, 2008 7:29pm
Quoting Warren Forex
Today or last night a new thread was started. I just posted there and I will include the link so that you can go over there if you wish. I will post on this thread from time to time but I probably will be on that thread very often.

The purpose of that New Thread will be clear to any that go there to learn how to win in forex.

Here is the link to that thread and the important post that I just did there.

We look forward to see all posters from this USD/JPY thread come over and join with us in order to grow, learn, share and become financially wealthy if you are ready to invest the time and effort to become a winner. If you already are a financial winner then please come over and share some of your time and knowledge with us and perhaps make some good friends in life.

Link:


http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...09#post2022509


Bruce
It's in the Recycle Bin!??!!??!!?
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