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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #67,721
  • May 26, 2008 10:23am May 26, 2008 10:23am
Quoting Moe
it will be another choppy week, grap your pips and run for the hills, another account blowing week.
no doubt it was a risky move in a very light market. However, I have already taken 50% off the table and moved stop up to BE on the rest so no risk left.

Should be an interesting week.
  • #67,722
  • May 26, 2008 10:25am May 26, 2008 10:25am
dont take moes price targets too seriously, he is just having some fun, when someone elses blow his account....,...then he will say,...why do u trade someonelses calls..., ....isnt that right Moe?......now seriously,....anybody here wants to short this MF for quick pips?
its just money
  • #67,723
  • May 26, 2008 10:30am May 26, 2008 10:30am
I out with 55+ pip
N I short from 1.9826

S/L 1.9852 T/P 1.9770
Grasp all lose all
  • #67,724
  • May 26, 2008 11:23am May 26, 2008 11:23am
Moe's 1.9660 target yesterday may have been based on a possible double top which today was kept within a channel range on the 15min to 1hour chart

Now, we may have a potential triple top for Cable @ 1.9850

A 1 hour candle that opens and closes above this level could signal more move to the upside for a trend continuation based on a FLAG pattern on the hourly chart.

But if a top breakout fails on the hourly chart, then a triple top confirmation for me would be a breakout to the downside of this channel below 1.9750 resulting to a potential trend reversal.

Then a short would be more likely with 1.9660 as the 1st target.

yano
  • #67,725
  • May 26, 2008 11:44am May 26, 2008 11:44am
  •  FxChi
  • | Joined Dec 2007 | Status: Cash Rules Everything Around Me | 749 Posts
Quoting salah k.
no bro i have to argue
USA is feeling inflation more than any other country

and they cant do more for housing or credit crunch plus the problems US is facing are entering europe and they will slow growth dramatically in europe plus euro is killing their exports and the world wont cope with that.

on the other hand oil will not keep going higher
sooner or later profit taking will occur and we will see a huge selloff.

hence dollar might see some more selloff but we are near the bottom if we havent already bottomed out.
Here's my thoughts, could be way off base though, but I thought Eurozone wasn't primarily export based (that's jpy). Anyways, yes if they maintain manufacturing in Europe and try to sell oversea's then yes it will cost more. What happens if those companies move manufacturing to dollar based countires? Playing field is leveled then and I'd say huge advantage to Eurozone.

Regarding slower growth in Europe, it seems that worldwide there will be slowing growth, not a recession though. In Eurozone they have some powerhouse countries. Think I saw on CNBC 8 out of the 10 top performing economies were in Eurozone.

IMO Eurozone will only become stronger moving forward. Just looking at an Oil chart, is clear it will continue going up. Yes there will be a retrace but overall, it will continue going up until there's some sort of alternative energy that can take it's place which I don't think has been discovered yet.

I'm not sure about the dollar bottoming out, it may or may not, I don't have a chart to run an analysis on it. Depending on how we close the monthly candle on S&P, we may not have bottomed on that index. Will have to wait until next week for that. 1177 could be a very real possibility for S&P, but again will need to wait until next week. I could be very wrong, but this is just based on the technicals I see. I would think though that S&P not bottoming would also mean dollar not bottoming.
"Wishful thinking dies hard." Igor T.
  • #67,726
  • May 26, 2008 11:46am May 26, 2008 11:46am
i hate this day
total waste of time

anybody know some good and free french tutorials?????
"what doesn't bankrupt me, makes me stronger" modern nietzche
  • #67,727
  • May 26, 2008 12:11pm May 26, 2008 12:11pm
this day like this is boring but it was very easy pips, very clear......., no worry when long and short......... grab 30 up , 30 down , is like paradise here.....
I Deeply Love My Virtual Life In Virtual World , RLC
  • #67,728
  • May 26, 2008 12:19pm May 26, 2008 12:19pm
Quoting FxChi
Here's my thoughts, could be way off base though, but I thought Eurozone wasn't primarily export based (that's jpy). Anyways, yes if they maintain manufacturing in Europe and try to sell oversea's then yes it will cost more. What happens if those companies move manufacturing to dollar based countires? Playing field is leveled then and I'd say huge advantage to Eurozone.

Regarding slower growth in Europe, it seems that worldwide there will be slowing growth, not a recession though. In Eurozone they have some powerhouse countries. Think I saw on CNBC 8 out of the 10 top performing economies were in Eurozone.

IMO Eurozone will only become stronger moving forward. Just looking at an Oil chart, is clear it will continue going up. Yes there will be a retrace but overall, it will continue going up until there's some sort of alternative energy that can take it's place which I don't think has been discovered yet.

I'm not sure about the dollar bottoming out, it may or may not, I don't have a chart to run an analysis on it. Depending on how we close the monthly candle on S&P, we may not have bottomed on that index. Will have to wait until next week for that. 1177 could be a very real possibility for S&P, but again will need to wait until next week. I could be very wrong, but this is just based on the technicals I see. I would think though that S&P not bottoming would also mean dollar not bottoming.
what u said was correct mostly but i have to point out
the major car companies which as we all know are based in europe and which really are hurting.
"what doesn't bankrupt me, makes me stronger" modern nietzche
  • #67,729
  • May 26, 2008 12:21pm May 26, 2008 12:21pm
Quoting notme32
this day like this is boring but it was very easy pips, very clear......., no worry when long and short......... grab 30 up , 30 down , is like paradise here.....
Didn't do much with cable other than watch it but there were a few really good opportunities today. NZDJPY (still going +50) and GBPJPY (closed a little while ago +65). I enter on the 60 min so cable just didn't set up right today. No biggie, I will take what I got all the way to the bank.
  • #67,730
  • May 26, 2008 12:24pm May 26, 2008 12:24pm
anyone see gbp going down for like 1.9750? or is it going up? by tomorrow ofc
  • #67,731
  • May 26, 2008 12:34pm May 26, 2008 12:34pm
Quoting zxr
anyone see gbp going down for like 1.9750? or is it going up? by tomorrow ofc
maybe you got that number in six or ten hour from now...........

for me today 800 is a magnet...................
I Deeply Love My Virtual Life In Virtual World , RLC
  • #67,732
  • May 26, 2008 12:40pm May 26, 2008 12:40pm
IMO gbpusd is going to test again 1.9770 since 1h stoch is overbought and changing direction. Also rsi is pointing south but it will take some time.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdmay26.gif Size: 37 KB
  • #67,733
  • May 26, 2008 1:03pm May 26, 2008 1:03pm
seems a bit worry for down ....i wanted to see 1.96 area
daily majorly overbought

1hr time chart suggest movement down was only cause of diverence playing out ....now on 1 hr it isnt there....

news for week look not good for cable to sink which i find worrying ...dunno whats happening and it looks like fundamentals going to determine direction which are looking up for cable .....but wheres the retracement??
  • #67,734
  • May 26, 2008 1:13pm May 26, 2008 1:13pm
i hate holidays ... sux sux sux
  • #67,735
  • May 26, 2008 1:17pm May 26, 2008 1:17pm
Quoting nAVIN2007
seems a bit worry for down ....i wanted to see 1.96 area
daily majorly overbought

1hr time chart suggest movement down was only cause of diverence playing out ....now on 1 hr it isnt there....

news for week look not good for cable to sink which i find worrying ...dunno whats happening and it looks like fundamentals going to determine direction which are looking up for cable .....but wheres the retracement??
dude if fundamentals turn out good for UK i strongly suggest u hedge
because so far its not looking like its willing to go down further.
"what doesn't bankrupt me, makes me stronger" modern nietzche
  • #67,736
  • May 26, 2008 1:26pm May 26, 2008 1:26pm
Quoting salah k.
dude if fundamentals turn out good for UK i strongly suggest u hedge
because so far its not looking like its willing to go down further.
Considering there's only me and 4 other people shorting this thing, I am not sure we can move the market, even a few pips.
  • #67,737
  • May 26, 2008 1:27pm May 26, 2008 1:27pm
Quoting salah k.
dude if fundamentals turn out good for UK i strongly suggest u hedge
because so far its not looking like its willing to go down further.
if it goes up i wont hedge cause it wont come down again thats the problem ...we right now in a shit sandwich...either it will break to the top and it wont come to this levels again...or it heading toward 1.8 longer term..

the monthly chart tells me it going to go up instead of down..only thing is im bloody short arent i...man i feel like im cursed always on the wrong side..lol
  • #67,738
  • May 26, 2008 1:27pm May 26, 2008 1:27pm
If not down in 4h I will close my position
Grasp all lose all
  • #67,739
  • May 26, 2008 1:29pm May 26, 2008 1:29pm
Quoting Teefoo
If not down in 4h I will close my position
Good plan. Time to watch a movie.
  • #67,740
  • May 26, 2008 1:29pm May 26, 2008 1:29pm
Quoting nAVIN2007
if it goes up i wont hedge cause it wont come down again thats the problem ...we right now in a shit sandwich...either it will break to the top and it wont come to this levels again...or it heading toward 1.8 longer term..

the monthly chart tells me it going to go up instead of down..only thing is im bloody short arent i...man i feel like im cursed always on the wrong side..lol
dude if ur thinking it will never come down
DONT


we still have dollar come back plus i thought u said longer term charts are looking bearish
what made u change ur view.
"what doesn't bankrupt me, makes me stronger" modern nietzche
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