USD/JPY Discussion | Page 363 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

USD/JPY

Similar Threads

USD/JPY Discussion 12 replies

NZD/JPY Discussion 12 replies

long eur/jpy, gbp/jpy, usd/jpy 11 replies

EUR/USD Bollinger Band Discussion 3 replies

Suidster's GBP/JPY Discussion 19 replies

Attachments: USD/JPY Discussion
Exit Attachments

USD/JPY Discussion

  • #7,241
  • May 26, 2008 6:12am May 26, 2008 6:12am
Quoting Warren Forex
Session: Europe
USD/JPY

Currency Majors Technical Analysis − 103,33. USD JPY is in a consolidation after the last bearish movement. by Mataf.net
https://fxstreet.s3.amazonaws.com/im...052608.gif.jpg103,33. USD JPY is in a consolidation after the last bearish movement. USD JPY moves without trend and swings around exponential moving averages (EMA 50 and 100). The volatility decreases. Bollinger bands are tightened. ForexTrend 1H (Mataf Trend Indicator) is in a bearish configuration. 4H ForexSto (Modified Stochastic) indicate a bearish pressure on USD JPY.

[ Full Story ]


There is a lot of good information on this link as I went back to it after posting it here. Since things are quiet now you have time to review it. There is both technical and fundamental information here. I just found this new item from Bloomberg on UBS from the WWW.JSMINESET.COM Website.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...0&refer=europe


Bruce
{Promotion Removed}
  • #7,242
  • Edited 7:27am May 26, 2008 7:26am | Edited 7:27am
http://www.dailyfx.com/story/tophead...565482236.html



<FONT face=Arial><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">The correlation between the carry trade and other risk-sensitive assets will be put to the test over the coming weeks and months. We have seen recently that the tight connection between the carry trade, equities and other high-yielding instruments - that was so strong through the subprime meltdown and credit crunch - has faded with investors slowly moving out of highly liquid assets and back into those that actually provide return. If the correlation continues to hold, the considerable reversal in equities may foreshadow a similar drop in the yen crosses. On the other hand, this equities’ reversal has yet to turn speculative futures, raise risk premium in default swaps, or alter underlying trading conditions. In fact, volatility in the equities market (as measured by the VIX) has risen little from its recent 10-month low and the put-call ratio continues to hit new lows for the year. This notable divergence suggests equities are merely following economic trends (speculation the Fed is done lowering rates) and risk trends may no longer be a market wide influence.
{Promotion Removed}
  • #7,243
  • May 26, 2008 9:26am May 26, 2008 9:26am
http://benbittrolff.blogspot.com/200...r-euribor.html


Bruce
{Promotion Removed}
  • #7,244
  • May 26, 2008 9:41am May 26, 2008 9:41am
USD/JPY High is 103.493 and it is now Bid 103.447 and it is going up in light trading by the rise of EUR/JPY moving over 163.00 to High of 163.30 and now is at 163.251 Bid...

Bruce
{Promotion Removed}
  • #7,245
  • May 26, 2008 10:04am May 26, 2008 10:04am
a little chart to complement Warren Forex fundamentals
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj channel.png Size: 39 KB
  • #7,246
  • May 26, 2008 10:08am May 26, 2008 10:08am
my short limit order is at 102.58
if it breaks the channel to the upside I'll wait for a better entry then and will be better because it means more pips to the 100.00 level.
  • #7,247
  • May 26, 2008 10:24am May 26, 2008 10:24am
I want entry short but think dow jones will rise tuesday

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #7,248
  • May 26, 2008 12:43pm May 26, 2008 12:43pm
Quoting pepbullish
I want entry short but think dow jones will rise tuesday

Attachment
Many factors will come into play so do not assume a rise or fall. Just monitor it and be ready for anything. Overnight Futures will give some clues and of course the housing data at 9:00 AM (Schiller) and New Home Sales at 10:00 in the morning on Tuesday can change the Futures either way and then so can the number coming out one half hour after market open in the USA.

It seems to be holding below 103.513 with EUR/JPY holding below 163.305

Stay Tuned...
{Promotion Removed}
  • #7,249
  • Edited 2:01pm May 26, 2008 1:52pm | Edited 2:01pm
http://www.reuters.com/article/busin...e=businessNews


Snippet From WWW.JSMINESET.COM

Posted On: Monday, May 26, 2008, 2:13:00 PM EST
http://www.jsmineset.com/spacer.gif
Jim's Mailbox
http://www.jsmineset.com/spacer.gif
Author: Jim Sinclair
http://www.jsmineset.com/spacer.gif



Mr. Sinclair,
Some spin? I came across this article today and just can’t believe the spin being put on it. It states:
“That the US United States has effectively given Gulf Arab oil producers the go ahead for making changes to their dollar-pegged foreign exchange policies.”
Then it continues:
“Citing a U.S. Treasury report to Congress that for the first time mentioned currency and inflation issues in the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council, Merrill said the United States government had become more confident about the outlook for the dollar and therefore did not necessarily need Gulf support for its currency.”
So we have given the GCC countries our permission to change and we feel that because our currency (US$) is so strong it won’t have an impact? What arrogance to say the least. What am I missing? As you so aptly state - This Is It!
Regards,
CIGA Jerry
Dear Jerry,
In spin 101 you always bless what you cannot stop.
Take note however that this is what Merrill Lynch says.
This could be an example of running the event up a flagpole to see how markets salute.
Either way, it is important.
Regards,
Jim
Merrill sees U.S. giving nod for Gulf FX change
Reuters
Sunday, May 25, 2008; 9:27 AM



Bruce
{Promotion Removed}
  • #7,250
  • May 26, 2008 6:32pm May 26, 2008 6:32pm
http://www.shadowstats.com/article/292


Please Take The Time To Read This Very Important Article On Inflation And Other Related Matters...


Bruce
{Promotion Removed}
  • #7,251
  • May 26, 2008 7:18pm May 26, 2008 7:18pm
Quoting Warren Forex
http://www.shadowstats.com/article/292


Please Take The Time To Read This Very Important Article On Inflation And Other Related Matters...


Bruce
too much homework teacher.. ! lol
just joking
  • #7,252
  • May 26, 2008 7:25pm May 26, 2008 7:25pm
Nikkey UP and 4h stochastic looking bearish.I believe we might at least retest that strong support level...102.6x
  • #7,253
  • May 26, 2008 7:28pm May 26, 2008 7:28pm
Quoting emda
too much homework teacher.. ! lol
just joking
I will read it when I get up early tomorrow morning. We could be near a breakdown in the Dow though housing numbers might change that with a upside surprise.


Bruce
{Promotion Removed}
  • #7,254
  • May 26, 2008 7:42pm May 26, 2008 7:42pm
http://www.investorsinsight.com/blog...t-sellers.aspx

This relates to an opinion on why the Dow is primed to go down. Excellent data and logic. Ignore it at your financial peril.

Keep this in mind. Work hard on your studies and then you can reap your rewards and take off one month for around the world cruise on my 187 foot yacht to be called "Ocean Sailor"

I hope to circle the world while trading currencies. That would be fun and at 64, I could even have a private nurse in every port. No dancing girls for me.

USD/JPY at low now for session at 103.316


Bruce
{Promotion Removed}
  • #7,255
  • May 26, 2008 7:46pm May 26, 2008 7:46pm
23:45 USD/JPY: Very Little Action In JPY Overnight, Better Bid Early Tokyo, May 26. Very little action was seen in holiday-thinned trading overnight. Centers on the continent of Europe and Canada were open as the US and UK enjoyed long weekends. The lack of movement is not surprising despite thin markets. USD/JPY looks to have held towards the top of the range seen in Asia with the downside limited to the 103.30 area and the topside around 103.50. At 103.42/45 currently, it remains bid with some players eyeing more moves to the upside on Japanese demand into today"s Tokyo fix and on a punt by specs heartened by the moves up yesterday though small. 103.50-60 looks to be the level to break on the hourlies, and some stops may be seen on a move through. Topside resistance remains above ahead of 104.00 and then at 104.09, 104.14-16 and 104.34, the Ichimoku tenkan line, the kijun line which has cross above the tenkan and the high in London on Friday, and the 100-day moving average, respectively. These should provide formidable headwind topside. Support below is seen ahead of 103.00, 103.13 the low in Asia yesterday, 102.70-75, 102.73 the low on Thursday, and then ahead of presumed option barriers and a double bottom at 102.50. -- [email protected]
{Promotion Removed}
  • #7,256
  • May 26, 2008 7:47pm May 26, 2008 7:47pm
This pair is obviously channeling on the dailies. Technically speaking I'm biased to the down side, but before a decided break below 102.53 I will not bet the farm on another downtrend. I'm still suspicious about oil, I believe we are on a verge of a significant correction, and add to that the fact that the FED is most likely done easing....who knows, this pair can resume the higher highs again.

I believe the best strategy for now is to wait untill more data becomes available, or if you "really need to trade" scalp for a few pips on the 15 or 30 min charts and really tight stop loss.
For he that would be deceived, let him.
  • #7,257
  • Edited 8:21pm May 26, 2008 8:16pm | Edited 8:21pm
Quoting pinchapip
This pair is obviously channeling on the dailies. Technically speaking I'm biased to the down side, but before a decided break below 102.53 I will not bet the farm on another downtrend. I'm still suspicious about oil, I believe we are on a verge of a significant correction, and add to that the fact that the FED is most likely done easing....who knows, this pair can resume the higher highs again.

I believe the best strategy for now is to wait untill more data becomes available, or if you "really need to trade" scalp for a few pips on the 15 or 30 min charts and really tight stop loss.
Oil will correct when The Powers That Be are ready to hit Oil and Gold at the same time and bump up the US Dollar Index. They need some excuse. Who knows a better than expected New Home Sales could do it !!!

Then next month they will correct the number down. One call from Bernake's associate and JOHNNY (Not A Real Person) will transpose the numbers from 450,000 to 540,000

NEVER TRUST THE GOVERNMENT. Their interests and ours are different because of that old equalizer "MONEY"


P.S. Last Month The Number Was 526,000 and Consumer Confidence Also Comes Out At 10:00 AM


Bruce
{Promotion Removed}
  • #7,258
  • Edited 9:20pm May 26, 2008 9:00pm | Edited 9:20pm
Indeed Bruce...

I'm waiting for some sort of correction on the commodities to push this pair up (since lows like this haven't happened a lot in the past) but I'm also taking into account the fact that the big boys want the dollar to depreciate in an orderly way ....since we dont have a crystal ball I'm watching for the two possible scenarios. Commodities at an all time high and dollar around all time lows seems unsustainable to me, but if the people in charge are not done yet they will cook the books till they get where they want.

Now technically speaking

We are hoovering a little below the middle of the daily channel. According to my charts a push down will bring the pair to around 101.88 confirming a new downtrend to at least around 98.49...... or it will push up to the 105.36 area and we stay in this consolidation channel we've been in since april 18.
For he that would be deceived, let him.
  • #7,259
  • May 27, 2008 12:16am May 27, 2008 12:16am
Well then, will UJ go up or go down ....
  • #7,260
  • May 27, 2008 12:20am May 27, 2008 12:20am
Quoting Schminner
Well then, will UJ go up or go down ....
bias apart...I dont predict, I react.
For he that would be deceived, let him.
233 traders viewing now