USD/JPY Discussion

That Is The Monthly Support Level As You Pointed Out Just Now With Your Excellent Charts !!!

My "Do You Think" ? is this...

Let us say that USD/JPY closes below 103.00 or around 102.50

Do you think It means that technically we will head towards 100 over the next few weeks.

Your BEST Computer is your BRAIN !!!

Best Regards


Bruce

http://www.financialsense.com/stormw...2008/0523.html

Snippet:

And what does that mean?
It means that peak oil is here. We’ve arrived at maximum global oil production. It means that oil production is going to decline in a few years or months. It means that America’s global dominance is coming to an end, and another era is about to be born. Money is being siphoned from the oil importing countries to the oil exporting countries at an accelerating rate. Most significant of all, the power bled from one great power is bound to accrue to another. Russia is an oil exporting country, and Russia’s strategic position is rapidly improving. Beginning with 2003 (when the U.S. invaded Iraq), the balance of power has been shifting from West to East. Some weeks ago I spoke with Andrei Illarionov, a former Kremlin economic advisor. Possessing some knowledge of oil’s relationship to economic conditions, he told me that America’s invasion of Iraq is definitely related to higher oil prices.
Suppose oil production has reached a plateau. Even in that case, the Iraq situation means that an important country is not making its full contribution to global oil production, and the effect may be larger than previously imagined.
Consider, in this context, what an America air assault on Iran would do to the price of oil. It should be emphasized that the American economy cannot cope with oil prices above $120 per barrel. The American dollar is being damaged, the economic position of Asia and Europe is being damaged, and oil-importing countries in the Third World are gravely impacted.
The situation is very serious.




Do You Think That The Depreciation Of The US Dollar In The Last 5 Years Since The Iraq Invasion Is Also The Reason That Oil Has Become Very Expensive ? All The Other Factors Pointed Out In This Editorial Could Also Apply. Yes, It Is Very Serious Indeed.

Bruce

VROOOMMM !!!

I am watching the Indy 500 with human interest as our own 5:15 PM EST Starting Point Arrives...

Are We Ready To Rock And Roll ? Are You Going To Win Your Indy 500 ?

The World of Sport Mirrors The World Of Life... We have a YELLOW Flag at the moment. We have a YELLOW flag in the Forex Market as we watch Oil and the US Dollar find their proper level. Danika Patrick is running 9TH at the moment. Lap 85 of 200 Completed under Yellow !!!

Where are you running ?


Bruce

Stay on your toes. Be Patient. Look for Opportunity and DO IT !!!

Good Trading To All...

Scott Dixon Wins Indy 500 ... He was 2nd last year but NEVER gave up or stopped trying.

Perserverance Will Always Win The Day.


Bruce

2008 is the traders year... good volatility and very small spreads.
the best (or worse) is still coming. if fear makes this into the market... what can be a real historic stagflation situation in the forex market... let's take advantage of it.

Nice to know that man...I live here since I was born and love it!!!

About the USDJPY's price...any "predictions".It started running up for a while and stopped.Could it be bouncing down?In 1 hour Nikkei opens...

Here is one of my charts.Price is below 20, 50 and 100 SMA.Parabolic SAR is pointing down and 50%fibo has made it's job.Technically everithing shows at least 101.But as we know very well, this pair is not just about technical, lets wait...
http://img257.imageshack.us/img257/1656/usdjpygz6.gif

The range for the Session is 103.432 High and 103.121 with the Bid now at 103.165 so let us see what it does in the next 96 Minutes until 10:00 PM EST to see if any patterns are forming to trade on.


Bruce

Summary from One Technical Call...


The structure for the pair remains bearish while capped by the multiple daily highs below 105.70 and overnight shorts are in play for the 61.8% retracement of the March/May rise. The price action leaves the daily studies edging lower, with plenty of room to extend and the hourlies mid range. Our strategy is to tighten the stop on a 102.75 break. (ams) 23:05 GMT

That could be what to watch for...First a break of 103.00 and then to see if 102.75 supports it. Low Volumes with Two Key Markets Closed...Sometimes those are the quick moving moments. Stay alert for currency flows and watch EUR/JPY now below 163.00

Thanks For The Chart

Bruce

Market Directions Sunday May 25, 2008


The Dollar Holiday Blues


What did not happen this week was more interesting than what did. Jobless Claims did not deteriorate, the Dow did, oil boomed, the United States housing market swooned and for all the negative news the dollar gave ground only grudgingly against the euro. The dollar did not collapse. It ended Friday three figures higher than where it began the week, but despite the provocation currency traders seem no more inclined to buy the euro beyond 1.6000 than they were three weeks ago. The US economy is in no worse shape than it was last month and the newest threat to an American recovery, the price of oil, is an equal opportunity danger.

Crude oil at $131.00 and rising will hurt the EMU economies as much or more than the US. American GDP for the first quarter will likely be revised higher to 1% or more this coming week. That is not a great deal lower than recent projections for the EMU. If the US is still growing at one percent and higher with the prolonged housing decline shaving percentage points from economic growth, and after the liquidity crisis and its attendant problems and the Europeans are at that growth level without having suffered any appreciable economic trauma what does that say about the next several months as the oil prices begins to bite hard into growth potential? Will EMU growth hold up under the flail of vastly higher energy prices and without any of the stimulus applied by the Federal Reserve? It is not likely. At least it is a bet currency traders seem reluctant to make.

The US economy, a far more flexible and integrated entity than the EMU fell from 4.9% GDP growth in the third quarter of 2007 to 0.6% growth in the fourth. Is the EMU, with a far less active consumer sector, not capable of such a dramatic fall?

The bad news absorbed by the usd over the past two months is considerable: job losses for four months running, generational lows in consumer sentiment, a sub 50 manufacturing ISM, weak retail sales, and stocks and housing as mentioned above. One might ask what else the market needs to see before it takes the euro higher. Or to ask the question another way, is there any statistic that will convince traders that, for one-- the Europeans will not shortly have a slowing economy of their own to contend with and two—the ECB will not soon begin lowering EMU rate?

Yes, spokesman for the ECB have been adamant and on message -- inflation is our concern, inflation is the target, price stability is paramount, we will fulfill our mandate. But to judge from the trading levels of the euro there is deep skepticism in the currency markets for that program.

The market expectation for an eventual ECB rate decrease is not just a wish. Traders and analysts are not simply talking their book knowing that lower rates are good for business or helpful to bank profits. The market 'expectation’ for a lower ECB refinancing rate is an expression of its collective judgment on European monetary policy and on how the ECB will respond to a future economic situation that is deemed to be distinctly possible.

If the market’s judgment differs from that of the ECB and its public policy pronouncements, that does not negate its validity. The ECB has several reasons, not all of them economic, for retaining its public anti-inflation mandate. Remember that the US markets had priced in rate cuts long before they occurred and remember too the Fed statements in the weeks between the onset of the financial and sub prime crisis in August and its first rate cut in mid September. Or recall Chairman Bernanke’s very deliberate rhetoric for much of the subsequent time. It is only recently that the Fed has publicly subordinated inflation to growth. Even so, the Fed has been accused of caving to market desires. The ECB has even more policy strictures because of its inflation mandate so it also has a grater need to preserve its independence and credibility.

Currency traders continue to place more emphasis on what is happening in the States than across the Atlantic. A great deal more has happened in the US and a great deal more is expected happen here. As we have noted before, expectations are fine and good, and can drive the markets a long way, but until the US economy delivers on the Fed promise, no trader will stake long term profit on the dollar. The limit of expectation has a very concrete aspect for traders; it is 1.5250.

Joseph Trevisani
FX Solutions
Chief Market Analyst
[email protected]

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/ed...2008/0523.html


Snippet:


Major banks have kept more than $35 billion in writedowns off their Income Statements according to recent regulatory filings.
Fortunately, more investors are becoming increasingly skeptical of the numbers issued by major financial institutions as well as by governments, the (private for-profit) U.S. Federal Reserve and other Central Banks, and the various data-generation agencies such as the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Fortunately, we say, because a necessary condition for protection and profit in the markets is knowledge of the financial and economic realities which the aforementioned entities are inclined to distort or obscure.
Indeed, Data Manipulation (and Market Intervention, for that matter) has become so pervasive that even The Establishment Media occasionally reveal these unpleasant Realities. Bloomberg.com, for example, recently widely broadcast their story that a number of big banks were hiding $35 billion in writedowns by keeping them off their Income Statements. (Bloomberg, 5/19/08)
While the Big Banks are including these writedowns in their Balance Sheets as required by accounting rules, keeping them off their Income Statements can certainly mislead investors.
For example, Citibank subtracted $2 billion from equity for the declining value of home loan bonds in its quarterly report to the SEC on May 2nd without mentioning the deduction in their Earnings Statement or in their conference call with investors that followed, according to Bloomberg.com.
The staggering magnitude of both the disclosed and hidden writedowns is reflected in the following figures regarding just four of the many Banks which have hidden writedowns (all numbers are billions of U.S. Dollars).



Bruce

00:34 NEWS: Nikkei Down 1.5% To 13,790 After Open, JPY Affect Small Tokyo, May 26. Following the plunge on Wall Street Friday, TSE weakness this morning is not all that surprising. After the open, the Nikkei has fallen to as low as 13,790.89, down 221.31 points or 1.58% on the day. Whether the index continues to move lower or retraces higher remains to be seen. What can be said is that the effect on USD/JPY and, especially, the JPY crosses has not bee all that large. EUR/JPY is in a holding pattern at 162.85/89, well above the 162.62 low seen in London on Friday. New York saw a low of 162.72 thereafter Friday. Both levels remain intact. Other JPY crosses are not seen any major sell-side flows either. [email protected]

Bruce... Where are you from? and do you ever sleep?

I usually go to bed around 11:00 PM EST and sleep for 3 1/2 hours until about 2:30 AM. I then trade until about 5:30 AM and get about another hour until about 6:30 AM EST. I then usually am up until 11:00 PM when I get some sleep again. I stop trading about Noon and take a 2 hour break. I stop again around 5:00 PM EST and usually take a one hour nap before supper. All in all, I get about 5 to 6 hours sleep a day during the FX trading week which is all I need at 64 years young.

I hope that explains things and I will turn in about one hour from now.

Bruce

So, when do USDJPY usually gets stronger?

ah I see in your profile you are from Canada. Never been there yet but I like it.

I'm not sure if it is good to sleep less than 4 hours in a row.
this can be helpful for you
http://www.mrob.com/pub/split-sleep.html


phoenix landing on mars successful... sending pictures now http://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/nasatv/
would this be good for UJ?

Watch out guys!!

I'm hearing a lot of people talking about a correction in oil. And indeed if a correction happens, it can calm down the traders, and the Dow can go up for a while.

Add to the fact that the FED is really showing some signs that they will stop easing, and "voila" ....in this kind of scenario USD/JPY can go poke the 61.8 fib (107.5 area) before it comes down again.

UJ quiet, maybe a breakout soon .....

Session: Europe
USD/JPY

Currency Majors Technical Analysis − 103,33. USD JPY is in a consolidation after the last bearish movement. by Mataf.net
https://fxstreet.s3.amazonaws.com/im...052608.gif.jpg103,33. USD JPY is in a consolidation after the last bearish movement. USD JPY moves without trend and swings around exponential moving averages (EMA 50 and 100). The volatility decreases. Bollinger bands are tightened. ForexTrend 1H (Mataf Trend Indicator) is in a bearish configuration. 4H ForexSto (Modified Stochastic) indicate a bearish pressure on USD JPY.

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