Cable Update (GBPUSD)

Trade what you see...
and good luck.

Earlier analysis posted here #67414

Carrera.. good charts!

Thanks.

this thread is dying because of this weak ass currency.

traders have blown there account, we will get a bunch of new members.

hehe ;true

why is this pair week? becoz it's unpredictable is it?

anyone think 9650

down cable down

well i think its because both US and UK are in pretty bad shape that people cant always decide which is weaker sterling or USD.

i hope 9650 but i dont think we might have the momentum to reach it on a holiday.

but who knows after all it is forex

Longterm - The pound has been crushing the usd for 5 years , nothing has changed, but a small correction.

Then .97, but I would prefer to go to 9650 so I can buy there as well.

Has anybody noticed the co-relation between GBPUSD and EURUSD? Do they tend to move in tandem or are they totally independent?

70% of the time they move together, and 30% they don't. As do all /usd pairs. Sometimes you may get 30 pips off one pair, and 100 pips off another, going in same direction. Sometimes you'll get -30 pips on 1 pair, and 150 pips on another, depends on news, and a way to see , look at eur/gbp to see how much it moves, if it moves not much, then they are moving together...

im with u on that.

yes ur right but u have to remember momentum changes direction.

and we cant say that it will keep on crushing US forever. it might actually have another black monday around the corner...

if not today then we will see 9250 by weeks ends.

Daily outlook

Cable continues to stay in tight range below 1.9852 today. With 4 hours MACD dragged below signal line, an intraday top is in place and more consolidation could be seen with risk of pull back to 1.9750 minor support or below. Though, downside should be contained by 1.9612 support and bring rally resumption.
On the upside, above 1.9852 will indicate rise from 1.9363 has resumed. As discussed before, prior break of falling trendline resistance indicates that fall from 2.0391 has already completed at 1.9363, supported above mentioned 1.9337 low as expected. Further rally is now expected to be seen to 2.0029 resistance first and then 2.0391 resistance.
In the bigger picture, down trend from 2.1161 have made a low at 1.9337. The corrective nature of the rise from 1.9337 to 2.0391 and fall from 2.0391 to 1.9363 suggests that price actions from 1.9337 are developing into sideway consolidation to whole fall from 2.1161. Though, the structure and length of this consolidation could either be in form of a three wave sideway consolidation or in form of five wave triangle pattern. But in either case, the current rise from 1.9363 should extend further to test 2.0391 resistance. Nevertheless upside of such consolidation should still be limited by 61.8% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.9337 at 2.0464. On the downside, below 1.9612 will turn focus back to 1.9337/63 support zone. Break of this support zone will indicate that decline from 2.1161 has resumed.

Weekly outlook

Cable's rebound from 1.9363 extended further to as high as 1.9852 last week and sustained break of the mentioned falling trend in resisteance indicates that fall from 2.0391 has already completed at 1.9363, supported above mnetioned 1.9337 low as expected. From a short term angle, initial bias will remain on the upside this week as long as 1.9750 minor support holds. Further rally should be seen to 2.0029 resistance first and then 2.0391 resistance. On the downside, below 1.9750 will turn intraday outlook neutral and bring pull back. But downside should be contained by 1.9612 support and bring rally resumption.
In the bigger picture, down trend from 2.1161 have made a low at 1.9337. The corrective nature of the rise from 1.9337 to 2.0391 and fall from 2.0391 to 1.9363 suggests that price actions from 1.9337 are developing into sideway consolidation to whole fall from 2.1161. Though, the structure and length of this consolidation could either be in form of a three wave sideway consolidation or in form of five wave triangle pattern. But in either case, the current rise from 1.9363 should extend further to test 2.0391 resistance. Nevertheless upside of such consolidation should still be limited by 61.8% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.9337 at 2.0464. On the downside, below 1.9612 will turn focus back to 1.9337/63 support zone. Break of this support zone will indicate that decline from 2.1161 has resumed.
In the longer term picture, prior break of medium term rising channel at least indicate that rise from 1.8090 has already completed at 2.1161, so is the medium term up trend from 1.7047 probably. Hence, sustained break of 2.1161 is needed to confirm the whole up trend has resumed. Otherwise, another fall is still expected towards 61.8% retracement of 1.7047 to 2.1161 at 1.8619 after finishing the current consolidation from 1.9337.
Also, while cable is still staying above 55 months EMA (now at 1.8763) as well as the long term trend line support (now at 1.8808) there is no indication of the completion of up trend from 1.3680 (01 low) yet. However, bearish divergence in monthly MACD and RSI suggests that 2.1161 is at least a medium term top and more downside is in favor in medium term even if the long term up trend will resume eventually