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  • #201
  • May 19, 2008 2:53am May 19, 2008 2:53am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
+40 pips so far.....good!
went to +69 pips max.....thanks cisco
  • #202
  • May 19, 2008 3:00am May 19, 2008 3:00am
No problem. I see a "POTENTIAL" GU trade coming up soon. On the 30M chart, price is getting ready to enter the ADSR. Since a trend has not yet been really solidified, I'd like to see a clean break to the upside, without a bite through the 50 SMA. But it's worth watching.



Quoting BillyRayValentine
went to +69 pips max.....thanks cisco
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  • #203
  • Edited 3:13am May 19, 2008 3:01am | Edited 3:13am
Quoting oscarfrx
Ok Billy I will be waiting for your posts.

TY
ok thanks but just a side note I started this thread to gather the best of the best (or what I figure to be, so far so good, and great contributers). I make a living from my trading, and I'm not a trading advisory, not getting paid here, have no intention of ever getting paid for calling trades to others, just call them as I see them and explaining why, in hopes of educating with what I know because its given me some success, and I know how hard it is starting off. Everybody has his or her own trading style and this is no different. Just thought I would say in case anyone reacts to anything posted here, from me or any other members on this or any other thread. The bottom line is education, though, as these opportunities are everywhere and occur every day, that's why I encourage others to hop on in on the posts.
  • #204
  • Edited 3:29am May 19, 2008 3:05am | Edited 3:29am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
CAD is a hard call right now because its a little ambiguous, due to the fact that lower support has been sloshed around for a little while, and there are multiple support levels which might or might not stick. The goal is to find the next decent retracement on this pair.

Take a look at this chart. You're right, this whole area holds some significance, but after Friday's bounce I feel the strongest support is just slightly lower, from .9918 up to .9934. It really is a tougher call to pinpoint this one to the pip, but I feel reversal in this area of some significance is to be noticed. Shaving off a couple on top and a couple on the bottom to narrow the range and doing some rounding, I would say:

Buy USD/CAD .9930 to .9920 (as low as possible, of course)

There's a chance I might might miss this one if it starts heading back starting at .9934 or higher, but I have a feeling it will move lower; just being conservative and avoiding any red as possible.
this SOB is really fighting! hahaha... went right into the middle of this zone and reversed....as usual, we'll see where it goes
another side note: trading should be fun, that's why we do it
  • #205
  • May 19, 2008 3:12am May 19, 2008 3:12am
Quoting ciscoguy
No problem. I see a "POTENTIAL" GU trade coming up soon. On the 30M chart, price is getting ready to enter the ADSR. Since a trend has not yet been really solidified, I'd like to see a clean break to the upside, without a bite through the 50 SMA. But it's worth watching.

yeah I'm looking to get long at a bigger size (already still have some open from last week)...I was thinking around down to the 1.9520's or even maybe all the way back to the 1.9500 area if it heads that low....its pretty hard call as you're right, no clearly defined trend. Wasn't expecting the break of 1.9600 so early today. I'll let you know if I see anything. if you do please let me know I'm looooooking . small base at 1.9540 is holding....we'll see where it goes
  • #206
  • Edited 7:26am May 19, 2008 6:45am | Edited 7:26am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
CAD is a hard call right now because its a little ambiguous, due to the fact that lower support has been sloshed around for a little while, and there are multiple support levels which might or might not stick. The goal is to find the next decent retracement on this pair.

Take a look at this chart. You're right, this whole area holds some significance, but after Friday's bounce I feel the strongest support is just slightly lower, from .9918 up to .9934. It really is a tougher call to pinpoint this one to the pip, but I feel reversal in this area of some significance is to be noticed. Shaving off a couple on top and a couple on the bottom to narrow the range and doing some rounding, I would say:

Buy USD/CAD .9930 to .9920 (as low as possible, of course)

There's a chance I might might miss this one if it starts heading back starting at .9934 or higher, but I have a feeling it will move lower; just being conservative and avoiding any red as possible.
I went light on this to begin with as per earlier posts, but because its showing small hints of a breakdown I took a little more off just to keep my sanity. It went to the bottom of the zone as discussed and is sitting there right now. You can see from any chart that this area shows support in general but its starting to deteriorate. I'm still looking for a move upwards so I'm not getting scared away on this one; just wanted to keep you posted.

So +19 to +23 max so far. In terms of the daily range for the bar itself, I gather its somewhere near the bottom. Next major area is in the .9890 to .9870 range.

Decent day overall, got +40 on NZD, and IronMan's Citi analysis we talked about last week turned out to be good for another +40 so far on the same pair. I had some other winners today but didnt post because I'm trying to keep the strategies here as consistent as possible. Might reevaluate that though and keep you guys in the loop on some other occurrances, or maybe start another thread for all trades, not just the ones at the top of my conviction list.

I was looking for a buy on GBP in the 1.9500 area, but I think I want to see it break it first, the way the day is going, down to appx. 1.9493, which isnt far away....still debating
  • #207
  • May 19, 2008 7:19am May 19, 2008 7:19am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
I went light on this to begin with as per earlier posts, but because its showing small hints of a breakdown I took a little more off just to keep my sanity. It went to the bottom of the zone as discussed and is sitting there right now. You can see from any chart that this area shows support in general but its starting to deteriorate. I'm still looking for a move upwards so I'm not getting scared away on this one; just wanted to keep you posted.

So +19 to +23 max so far. In terms of the daily range for the bar itself, I gather its somewhere near the bottom. Next major area is in the .9890 to .9870 range.

Decent day overall, got +40 on NZD, and IronMan's Citi analysis we talked about last week turned out to be good for another +40 so far on the same pair.

I was looking for a buy on GBP in the 1.9500 area, but I think I want to see it break it first, the way the day is going, down to appx. 1.9493, which isnt far away....still debating
GBP had no issues getting through this area. Big push pro USD in the last few minutes. next major area of support is 1.9474. might hiccup here for 20 pips if price gets that low. just some observations but not calling it. strange markets these past couple days.
  • #208
  • May 19, 2008 7:25am May 19, 2008 7:25am
about GU, theres a really strong support lvl at 1.9361 and has bounced a couple of times, and its forming a descending triangle
  • #209
  • May 19, 2008 7:28am May 19, 2008 7:28am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
I went light on this to begin with as per earlier posts, but because its showing small hints of a breakdown I took a little more off just to keep my sanity. It went to the bottom of the zone as discussed and is sitting there right now. You can see from any chart that this area shows support in general but its starting to deteriorate. I'm still looking for a move upwards so I'm not getting scared away on this one; just wanted to keep you posted.

So +19 to +23 max so far. In terms of the daily range for the bar itself, I gather its somewhere near the bottom. Next major area is in the .9890 to .9870 range.

Decent day overall, got +40 on NZD, and IronMan's Citi analysis we talked about last week turned out to be good for another +40 so far on the same pair. I had some other winners today but didnt post because I'm trying to keep the strategies here as consistent as possible. Might reevaluate that though and keep you guys in the loop on some other occurrances, or maybe start another thread for all trades, not just the ones at the top of my conviction list.

I was looking for a buy on GBP in the 1.9500 area, but I think I want to see it break it first, the way the day is going, down to appx. 1.9493, which isnt far away....still debating
CAD back up in the money on the double zero bounce.
  • #210
  • May 19, 2008 7:33am May 19, 2008 7:33am
Quoting pamelomarcos
about GU, theres a really strong support lvl at 1.9361 and has bounced a couple of times, and its forming a descending triangle
Yeah I see what you're saying. I think I'm staying clear of this today though! It just broke through that other level a little bit. You're right 1.9461 to 1.9456 has some good levels. Also solid retracement. Runny market today in general. Wish I shorted earlier.
  • #211
  • May 19, 2008 8:55am May 19, 2008 8:55am
Quoting pamelomarcos
about GU, theres a really strong support lvl at 1.9361 and has bounced a couple of times, and its forming a descending triangle
looks like it gave up +20 so far good call thanks
  • #212
  • May 19, 2008 9:16am May 19, 2008 9:16am
your welcome, hope we can help each other, you look like a good trader
  • #213
  • May 19, 2008 10:38am May 19, 2008 10:38am
Quoting pamelomarcos
about GU, theres a really strong support lvl at 1.9361 and has bounced a couple of times, and its forming a descending triangle
What TF did you use? Any chance of posting a screenshot? I tried to spot it but in vain. Thanks
Be like a post stamp! Stick to it until you get there!
  • #214
  • May 19, 2008 12:09pm May 19, 2008 12:09pm
Billy Ray,

New to this forum and hope I am doing this correctly. I am a fairly new trader and in search of as much knowledge as possible. Stumbled on your thread on Friday. Have learned some things already just by reading the interaction between you and Cisco,etc. Unfortunately, the thing that attracted me to your thread was the " No Brainer" heading and your intro about 90% trade set-ups. Have taken 2 trades...A/D on Friday which turned out to be a loser( Fortunately, because I followed your advice on this post whenI got 20 pips up I brought my stop to break even, so when the bottom fell out I didn't lose anything.)
The second trade I took was CAD today to buy.Right now that is still down and sort of lnguishing around. I do believe that it will bounce back as you predict.

I would like to ask one question and make one suggestion..
My question is...on several occasions you have mentioned taking smaller profits out and even say that on Friday's A/D trade your first level was good for 25 pips.But in this post you say that your initial goal is 40 pips?. How do you determine when to take profit earlier than 40? I find my greatest mental adversary is not when to cut a loss but when to book a gain! Could you elaborate on your method for taking gains off the table that are smaller than your goal of 40?
Secondly, my suggestion..... Since the purpose of this thread is" No Brainer..90% Trades" would you consider labeling that trade when you list it. In your discussion of trades with other Posters you seem to be agreeing sometimes and even entering trades but I'm not sure if they are true "NB" trades. Today's CAD buy is a good example. Was That a "NB" trade? You seemed a little hesitent about it so I wasn't sure. My suggestion would be that from now on when you are sharing that "90%" type trade that you simply put the initials "NB" in front of it so that it is clear. Anyway....just a suggestion.
Let me say "Thanks" for taking the time to share your knowledge with those of us who are " learning the ropes" Your experienced advice and direction is invaluable.Will be following this thread every day!


Quoting BillyRayValentine
I dont mind at all....

Here's what I basically do:

1. Find a strong level of support/resistance and fade as explained in previous posts.

2. At 15 - 20 pips move your stop to breakeven

3. At around 40 pips take partial profit

4. Let the rest run to your target

5. Keep a small amount open in case of a run further

6. Be patient. Dont jump the gun and close out a runner or if you're in the red for a short time. If you are certain about something, stay with it. And use stops wisely.

to be more specific with your question, I assume that the entry will hold based on its strength. the worst that can happen is that I get stopped out at breakeven or take partial off the table. at that point I draw the retracement from top to bottom and locate a reasonable target. use a stop loss of course on entry, but make sure it makes sense if there are strong levels not too far away. price might bounce off of these as well, in which case, you dont want to get stopped out. like on CAD today.
  • #215
  • May 19, 2008 2:11pm May 19, 2008 2:11pm
Quoting Mary Pippins
What TF did you use? Any chance of posting a screenshot? I tried to spot it but in vain. Thanks
Daily
http://www.forexfactory.com/C:\Users\Owner\Pictures
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD.jpg Size: 237 KB
  • #216
  • May 19, 2008 5:36pm May 19, 2008 5:36pm
Quoting inforthepips
Billy Ray,


My suggestion would be that from now on when you are sharing that "90%" type trade that you simply put the initials "NB" in front of it so that it is clear.

or we could change the name of the thread to "Traders with no Brains" Then I would feel more at home, LOL


One of the drawbacks to forums is thoughts and strategies can get strung out and disorganized especially as time goes by and new people are always coming and going. What I do when I read through a thread is "cut and paste" any info I deem useful into a Word doc and if I need to organize it from there I can shift it around in my spare time. I try to review stuff everyday. It has been proven that it takes 21 days on average to form a new habit from repetition. Taking money off the table early (20-40 pips) is NEVER a bad thing. Because no one ever went broke taking a .... anyone? anyone? ...a profit! That's right.

Please know I am not picking on you.

Your questions are good questions.

How do you know when 20 is good and when to hold for 40 or more?

Trend or countertrend plays alot into it. But another thing. Screen time and being familiar with price action is key. And yet, If all you did was take 20 pips everytime you traded a NB set up and by taking 20 greatly reduced your losing trades because you were out before they could turn on you, I would venture to say you would be quite happy with the results in 6-12 months. Consistency is the key.
Energy and persistence conquer all things! Ben Franklin
  • #217
  • May 19, 2008 5:51pm May 19, 2008 5:51pm
Moving averages are some of the few indicators out there that have any value. In the end they are still bringing our attention to S & R areas. And of course as you pointed out they can be dynamic points of support and resistance themselves. MA crossovers? Forget about it. Way too far behind the curve to be anything more than confirmation or a good exit point.

As I was reviewing your system I noticed one thing that might tweek your edge. Try changing your SMA's to WMA's. Simple moving averages are the slowest responders to price action and weighted moving averages are the fastest. All of the bank commentary I get these days shows professional traders using WMA's. The stuff brokers put out to their clients show SMA's. Hmmm. The other thing I would suggest is try adding a 800wma. In days of old the 800 SMA was considered the balance line and the 800 Wma can still help in determining swing as well as price targets.

Just a few thoughts. Test them and see what you think.

Good trading and keep up the good work. Usd/Cad was a NB sell trade for sure. Eur/Cad was an even better sell. I'm keeping one eye on the Aussie. The longer it stays around .9530 the more I'm looking for a fall. We'll see.
Energy and persistence conquer all things! Ben Franklin
  • #218
  • May 19, 2008 5:59pm May 19, 2008 5:59pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by pamelomarcos http://forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
about GU, theres a really strong support lvl at 1.9361 and has bounced a couple of times, and its forming a descending triangle

looks like it gave up +20 so far good call thanks

Quoting BillyRayValentine
looks like it gave up +20 so far good call thanks
Looks like you caught the bottom on this one....thanks for the heads up.....this is why we love steady contributions
  • #219
  • May 19, 2008 6:02pm May 19, 2008 6:02pm
Iron Man,

You make my point exactly in your previus post. Please read below the first 2 sentences of BillyRay's first post. The beauty of his thread is that he wants to give the "NB" trades ( in his view) that are 90% accurate. My read of his intentions is to keep this post simple and on point... WHCH IS NO BRAINER TRADES!
My read is that already there are some who are posting ideas, strategies and philosophies that I'm sure are very impressive to the knowledgable Forex veteran but are already convoluting the purpose of this thread. And that purpose is to keep it simple for those of us with "no brains" who want to learn what a winning set up isand how to spot it.
Please know that I am not picking on you... its just that I came o thread that says " No Brainer Trades" not "Change Your MMA's to WMA's" ( Huh?)
Billy Ray... I would still hope that you would answer my previous post.... Thanks!


Quoting BillyRayValentine
Hi everyone,

I'm starting this thread for the benefit of all for trade setups with 90%+- accuracy and reliability. When I say this I'm talking about posting trades with obvious levels of heavy support and resistance where not getting in seems like the dumbest thing to do. For the Negative Nancy's out there please dont scorn me on the 90% accuracy figure. Find another hobby. With most of these trades you could atleast scalp for 20 pips, others have paid out hundreds of pips.

If you feel you have something please post but make sure your confidence level is way above average.

Here are some on the way or in progress:

USD/JPY short, 105.70 to 105.60
hit it 3 times and made a nice bounce everytime, expecting the same to happen today or tomorrow if price makes it up there. Shorting lower level resistance at 104.44 is paying out about 25 pips right now.

USD/CHF short, 1.0630 to 1.0620
high of the recent s/r levels. Right now its bouncing off of 1.0600 resistance giving a good 30pip payout

GBP/USD long, 1.9362 to 1.9388
this one is in progress but here for demonstration...about 40 pips so far. Another opportunity for a long is coming at 1.9337

Thanks, please keep them coming. I'm generally very busy but if I have the time to post I'll be sure to.
  • #220
  • May 19, 2008 6:18pm May 19, 2008 6:18pm
Quoting inforthepips
Billy Ray,

New to this forum and hope I am doing this correctly. I am a fairly new trader and in search of as much knowledge as possible. Stumbled on your thread on Friday. Have learned some things already just by reading the interaction between you and Cisco,etc. Unfortunately, the thing that attracted me to your thread was the " No Brainer" heading and your intro about 90% trade set-ups. Have taken 2 trades...A/D on Friday which turned out to be a loser( Fortunately, because I followed your advice on this post whenI got 20 pips up I brought my stop to break even, so when the bottom fell out I didn't lose anything.)
The second trade I took was CAD today to buy.Right now that is still down and sort of lnguishing around. I do believe that it will bounce back as you predict.

I would like to ask one question and make one suggestion..
My question is...on several occasions you have mentioned taking smaller profits out and even say that on Friday's A/D trade your first level was good for 25 pips.But in this post you say that your initial goal is 40 pips?. How do you determine when to take profit earlier than 40? I find my greatest mental adversary is not when to cut a loss but when to book a gain! Could you elaborate on your method for taking gains off the table that are smaller than your goal of 40?
Secondly, my suggestion..... Since the purpose of this thread is" No Brainer..90% Trades" would you consider labeling that trade when you list it. In your discussion of trades with other Posters you seem to be agreeing sometimes and even entering trades but I'm not sure if they are true "NB" trades. Today's CAD buy is a good example. Was That a "NB" trade? You seemed a little hesitent about it so I wasn't sure. My suggestion would be that from now on when you are sharing that "90%" type trade that you simply put the initials "NB" in front of it so that it is clear. Anyway....just a suggestion.
Let me say "Thanks" for taking the time to share your knowledge with those of us who are " learning the ropes" Your experienced advice and direction is invaluable.Will be following this thread every day!
Thanks, Its really on a case by case scenario, and changes as the market changes. Ironman has a good post above this about it. In the way of CAD today, the trend is overextended and ready for a considerable retracement. I bought some lower and when I got to breakeven took off a little exposure and pocketed some $. It might yet still go lower, but I base my profit-taking scheme one at a time. CAD I'm looking for more, so I'm not ready to go off the wagon on that one just yet. My spreads are high today, indicating a stalled market, so I'm going to wait the rest out. But that's just me.

The way the market was behaving Friday to today, though, I showed some hesitation on hopping on anything with big size.

USDJPY the other day was in a super-fast market, so if price was going to pop, it was going to run hard, but that never happened. Just the nature of the day. Trade was only good for +20. Dollar got annihilated.

The NZD trade last night was a little flukey, so I made sure to take some at +40 and see if I caught the run. It went higher so I went for another sell at the higher level posted earlier. Took some profit on that at +40 and trying to get a decent move on the rest.

I dont generally use static stop losses and take profits, thats why I dont post them here.

The market is constantly evolving, and based on what I am looking for and what I believe will happen and within the boundaries or risk tolerance I will adjust them all accordingly. Every day is different, and experience alone can get you used to that.

But the trades provided everyone in this forum so far have been excellent. Every trade has been a winner by atleast +20 pips, some considerably larger, with the exception of 1/2 of the AUD trade (which only went against you about 20 - 25 pips and offered a chance to get out without losing a dime, all within 1/2 hour). So we'll keep the ball rolling. Continuing to see new users pop in and posting great stuff. We have a better winrate this past week then 99% of all hedge funds, so sh%#, lets keep on doing it .
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