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  • #161
  • May 18, 2008 6:15pm May 18, 2008 6:15pm
Quoting max pips
That is very useful information, and as usual incredibly simple. Thanks

and the pizza?

Max

The reason Dominoes Pizza's logo (the Domino) has 2 dots on one side and 1 dot on the other is because the man who founded Domino's Pizza, Tom Monaghan, went bankrupt twice before he succeeded once.
Energy and persistence conquer all things! Ben Franklin
  • #162
  • Edited 6:59pm May 18, 2008 6:52pm | Edited 6:59pm
USDCAD Short: .9995 SL: 1.0022 TP: .9950.

This one is bouncing nicely and will most certainly drop this time. The nearest significant support is rom the 4H timeframe and isat .9940.

Good luck!
Cisco
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  • #163
  • Edited 7:53pm May 18, 2008 6:59pm | Edited 7:53pm
EURCAD - Short upon 4H close below 1.5534. SL 1.5608 TP: 1.5440

Be very careful that you have a confirmation for this trade. If it does not CLOSE below 1.5534 on the 4H candle, forget it. It COULD break out LONG. if it does not close below the recommended level, I'll sit this one out.

If it does drop, I'll be looking for the price to break 1.5400. If it breaks that level, the next stop is WAY down. 1.5200 - 1.5180 looks like the next level of significant support. i had to go all the way to the 1W timeframe to find it. Good money if she breaks down below 1.5400!
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  • #164
  • May 18, 2008 7:01pm May 18, 2008 7:01pm
Quoting jtdt777
Here is an example of a bounce of the TL which is countertrend. Probably good for 20-40 pips on the first bounce. I use the J16 method and wouldn't have touched this one until 9 bars later when the OB appeared.

Do you have another entry method on countertrend that you use? Like 1,2,3 or EWT? My success ratio is very poor on these countertrend moves and I would like to increase the percentage.
J16 thread has some very useful info on price action. EW and 123's(which is taking a part of EW action and zooming in) can be more subjective.

Contertrend trades are always risky but they definately should be approached with a GIGO(Get in Get out) mentality. Of course one could argue , "just take the trades with the trend and have a nice day."to which I would say, "sure, no shame in that!" One thing I like about counter trend trades is that they can play out relatively quickly once the market wakes up. One approach I use is to get in when the market is calm especially if I see a false breakout during this time. ASIAN session is prime real estate for this kind of occurrence. Breakouts are almost always false. So an apparent breakout to the upside in favor of the uptrend (or vice versa in a downtrend) is a good opportunity to fade. Then you may have to hold on until London open draws near and usually it happens quick then. EUR/CHF was a good example on Friday.
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Energy and persistence conquer all things! Ben Franklin
  • #165
  • May 18, 2008 7:06pm May 18, 2008 7:06pm
[quote=ciscoguy;2007025]USDCAD Short: .9995 SL: 1.0022 TP: .9950.

This one is bouncing nicely and will most certainly drop this time. The nearest significant support is rom the 4H timeframe and isat .9940.

Good luck!
Cisco[/quote

Good evening all.

Bloomberg is also talking about high oil, gold demand, weak dollar - all supporting strong CAD.
History is written by the victors.
  • #166
  • May 18, 2008 7:33pm May 18, 2008 7:33pm
Yep. It's going to drop. Just be CERTAIN to either close the position at .9950 or close partial and move the SL to break even, or lock in some more profits. There is a lot of Bull pressure showing on he 4H chart on recent swing lows. Honestly, once this one breaks down to .9973, I'll move my SL to 1.007, or just above the latest swing high into the area of dynamic S/R. This is a short term play. I expect this pair to make a double bottom this swing and deteriorate the 1H bearish trend.


C


Regards,
C

[quote=Money-RX;2007041]
Quoting ciscoguy
USDCAD Short: .9995 SL: 1.0022 TP: .9950.

This one is bouncing nicely and will most certainly drop this time. The nearest significant support is rom the 4H timeframe and isat .9940.

Good luck!
Cisco[/quote

Good evening all.

Bloomberg is also talking about high oil, gold demand, weak dollar - all supporting strong CAD.
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  • #167
  • Edited 11:44pm May 18, 2008 10:25pm | Edited 11:44pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Lets just make it official so we can keep track of this stuff. First entry at the lower level, and a push higher at the .95 range. That is if it goes past the 3rd tier of resistance to begin with.
Just an update.
Depending on where you got in the lower level paid max about +30 pips.

Personally scalped some quick profit on this one due to the way the market was behaving, but not full.

Second level got destroyed in Friday's USD feeding frenzy.

Looking back at this entire area on the 4 hr or daily chart, you can see that its been used and abused for quite some time, and a breakout was inevitable at some point. So the upper tier got torn through for about 70 pips as AUD made new highs, offering only one chance to get out at breakeven.

Some general rules I like to use in times like these:

Fridays in general prove tough days to trade, especially if they coincide with option exp. or other common market issues.

If you get burnt on a level like the upper level like this, your strategy for entering the trade is thus also null, therefore, get out at a moment of comfort (eg second tier allowed out for breakeven) to avoid any collateral damage. The possibility is there that it will come back in your favor in a big way, but that's not why you got in the trade....keep that in mind.

When all pairs are moving in such a single biased direction as Friday its hard for much of any s/r levels to hold. Has little somtimes to do with the individual pair you are trading (so long as they are pegged to USD) and rather the pure hysteria of the day. Scalping might be permitted at certain points (eg the USDJPY long trade at 104.04 for +20 pips).

On days like this, and to avoid carrying trades over the weekend, scalp for full profit (just one way of doing it, not necessarily what I do all the time though).....in the example of this trade, if you had a +30 tp and -30sl on both trades you would have broken even for the day.

Just some thoughts and follow up. Be back soon.
  • #168
  • Edited 11:30pm May 18, 2008 10:29pm | Edited 11:30pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
yum...kiwi

kiwi is in one disasterous fall right now, and though I definately see what you're saying Ironman, I'm actually waiting for a good sell around .7730 to .7750. Just not seeing a lot of historical s/r at the current level, although it may work out. .7730 is stronger short term, but .7750 seems stronger longer term. I would say def. at .7750.

one more thing (not drawn here but you can do it yourself) around .7734 to 37 you have a .50 retracement of the last major wave. big stuff all around here, so we'll see how it goes.

So here we go:

Sell NZD/USD .7730 -.7750, ideally closer to .7750

again to rehash my strategy I might want to put on a part of the position at .7730 area, and the rest or more at .7750.....this is what I do atleast so I dont miss out if it doesnt want to crawl any higher

+43 pips max right now.

this actually nailed .7750 and shot down again, trying to analyze how long it will last

thx for the heads up on the pair ironman.
I had this executed on Friday afternoon at .7737, but closed it for only +6 pips as I didnt want to hold it for the weekend due to Friday's nutty action, fearing a higher open today. Got a chance to reenter .7746 after spread tonight feeling more comfortable seeing the open. Take partial $ at +40. I'll try to keep 'em coming. thx all
  • #169
  • Edited 11:00pm May 18, 2008 10:33pm | Edited 11:00pm
Quoting max pips
Great thread billy ray. Even , a very cool name. Billy Ray Valentine gives hope to many of us bums and beggars on the streets!!

This all combines really well with the J16 analysis but offers something a littel different. What you will have difficulty with is keeping this post 'clean'. If you or others are thinking too much, clearly it is not a no brainer trade.

Very enjoyable
thanks
MAx
Thanks. You're the first person to point out my namesake . Great movie!

Winthorp can stick it.

I agree with keeping the posts 'clean'. That's the target. I'll keep butting in to try to do so.
  • #170
  • May 18, 2008 11:25pm May 18, 2008 11:25pm
Quoting ciscoguy
Yep. It's going to drop. Just be CERTAIN to either close the position at .9950 or close partial and move the SL to break even, or lock in some more profits. There is a lot of Bull pressure showing on he 4H chart on recent swing lows. Honestly, once this one breaks down to .9973, I'll move my SL to 1.007, or just above the latest swing high into the area of dynamic S/R. This is a short term play. I expect this pair to make a double bottom this swing and deteriorate the 1H bearish trend.


C


Regards,
C
CAD is a hard call right now because its a little ambiguous, due to the fact that lower support has been sloshed around for a little while, and there are multiple support levels which might or might not stick. The goal is to find the next decent retracement on this pair.

Take a look at this chart. You're right, this whole area holds some significance, but after Friday's bounce I feel the strongest support is just slightly lower, from .9918 up to .9934. It really is a tougher call to pinpoint this one to the pip, but I feel reversal in this area of some significance is to be noticed. Shaving off a couple on top and a couple on the bottom to narrow the range and doing some rounding, I would say:

Buy USD/CAD .9930 to .9920 (as low as possible, of course)

There's a chance I might might miss this one if it starts heading back starting at .9934 or higher, but I have a feeling it will move lower; just being conservative and avoiding any red as possible.
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  • #171
  • May 18, 2008 11:41pm May 18, 2008 11:41pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
+43 pips max right now.

this actually nailed .7750 and shot down again, trying to analyze how long it will last

thx for the heads up on the pair ironman.
I had this executed on Friday afternoon at .7737, but closed it for only +6 pips as I didnt want to hold it for the weekend due to Friday's nutty action, fearing a higher open today. Got a chance to reenter .7746 after spread tonight feeling more comfortable seeing the open. Take partial $ at +40. I'll try to keep 'em coming. thx all
this is counter-minitrend (if you know what I mean), and also charts not showing weekend data might look to close that gap right up to .7742. we'll see how it goes; just some speculation. Trend might continue; a lot of ferocity on Fri.
  • #172
  • May 18, 2008 11:53pm May 18, 2008 11:53pm
  •  Dec1pher
  • | Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Deciphering the markets in realtime | 7 Posts
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Thanks. You're the first person to point out my namesake . Great movie!

Winthorp can stick it.

I agree with keeping the posts 'clean'. That's the target. I'll keep butting in to try to do so.
Actually, my earlier post was a reference to it as well. I was wondering if anyone would catch it. Definitely a classic and one my my favs.

Keep up the good posts, I enjoy your thread!
  • #173
  • May 19, 2008 12:31am May 19, 2008 12:31am
Quoting ciscoguy
EURCAD - Short upon 4H close below 1.5534. SL 1.5608 TP: 1.5440

Be very careful that you have a confirmation for this trade. If it does not CLOSE below 1.5534 on the 4H candle, forget it. It COULD break out LONG. if it does not close below the recommended level, I'll sit this one out.

If it does drop, I'll be looking for the price to break 1.5400. If it breaks that level, the next stop is WAY down. 1.5200 - 1.5180 looks like the next level of significant support. i had to go all the way to the 1W timeframe to find it. Good money if she breaks down below 1.5400!
Just curious what's your methodology/strategy for entering? How does it work? Just trying to figure it out...thanks!
  • #174
  • May 19, 2008 12:36am May 19, 2008 12:36am
Quoting jtdt777
Here is an example of a bounce of the TL which is countertrend. Probably good for 20-40 pips on the first bounce. I use the J16 method and wouldn't have touched this one until 9 bars later when the OB appeared.

Do you have another entry method on countertrend that you use? Like 1,2,3 or EWT? My success ratio is very poor on these countertrend moves and I would like to increase the percentage.
Personally just not a huge fan of channel or other diagonal trendline techniques (though they do work many times), but others would certainly argue. I've just found them incredibly hard to guage reliable vs. not (for the reason you explained), as well as pinpointing exact entries. If a totally obvious one comes along I might take it, but the conditions have to look way above average.
  • #175
  • May 19, 2008 12:37am May 19, 2008 12:37am
Quoting Iron-man
Just thought I would throw this out there for anyone new to trading. You may look at some of these trades and say, "Well how is it that some of these trades are good for 20,30 or 40 pips or so and then they turn back and others run 150+." Here again, the answer is not too complicated. Bearing in mind there is an exception to every rule.

Bounces off S&R in favor of the previous trend tend to give up more pips. (Not that 20-40 pips is a bad trade) Otherwise the trade is a counter trend trade and the only time they payoff big is when you catch a top or a bottom. And btw, should you be fortunate enough to do that on a trade just be thankful and move on. Accept it as the luck it was. Here's why I say that. If you pick your favorite currency and zoom back through the data some Friday or Saturday afternoon, the moves that jump off the screen are the big ones. What NEVER jumps off the screen are the false breakouts. So what happens is we analyze that breakout or big reversal and (God Forbid) we add indicators until we have the perfect predictor for that particular move. So the next time we think we see that set up through our rose-colored-indicator-Warren-Buffet-eat-my-shorts-time-to-order-the-Mercedes-whirly bird machine, we go all in and lose big. Ask me how I know.

So when the bounce is against the trend I take my 20-40 pips and wait for the next set up (which sometimes is the exact same trade again) and if it's with the trend.... well I might still take my 20-40 pips (no one ever went broke taking a profit) but I am willing to accept more risk, such as, taking half off and moving my stop to break even, or maybe building a bigger position. Stuff like that.

I hope this helps and as always, Billy Ray, please feel free to add your thoughts.
nice commentary thanks!
  • #176
  • May 19, 2008 12:42am May 19, 2008 12:42am
Quoting The Fxorce
BRV great thread!
While you're at it why not include the trendline bounces that move price intraday and from daily charts? This is how we trade high percentage setups. We look for an ABC pattern to be playing out near the TL (trendline) or S/R (support resistance). We feel patterns move the market more than S/R. Do not trade 30 minutes before or after news. Only take the first touch of a 15minute TL if you miss it just stay out there are 10 a day. Stay in the trade until the 5minute stochastic moves to the opposite side for intraday moves and high percentage scalps. Losses come after this happens on the break of S/R so move stoploss to breakeven and take half off.

We've been trying to put together a skype group that trades like this. Btw we also play breaks of S/R which are not as high percentage but once you've traded them for a while you know which ones can move. Breakouts are much more subjective. With bounces you know within 20 pips where price is going to reverse. With breakouts you might get a false move beyond a TL and a spike back into the range.
Friday's moves should not scare anyone away. This happens every couple months or so. The market ran on a rumor and we had big option expirations Friday. A group with self serving objectives started a rumor about Bloomberg State Employment surveys showing 151k jobs lost in April which is much worse than the 21k reported loss and would put the USA in a definable recession. It's a shame when these fools make statements because it scares people out of the market and makes for high volatility. If you want to be ahead of these moves or at least know what's going on use Ransquawk or trade the news. Ransquawk is free from their site with a 30 second delay which is all we need to tech trading because we shut down 30 minutes before and after news. Trade the news text is $40/month and very handy to have a history of what has happened.
Good thread, Bro.
Thanks for the good words. Yeah I'll play these occasionally, but I like all the stars to be aligned if you know what I mean. There can be a lot of different methods applied to trading this way, simple abc patters seem to have been the best place to start; I agree with what you're saying. If I see anything I'll put it up here, or if you do, please go right ahead.
  • #177
  • Edited 2:32am May 19, 2008 2:21am | Edited 2:32am
Quoting ciscoguy
USDCAD Short: .9995 SL: 1.0022 TP: .9950.

This one is bouncing nicely and will most certainly drop this time. The nearest significant support is rom the 4H timeframe and isat .9940.

Good luck!
Cisco

+40 pips so far.....good!
  • #178
  • May 19, 2008 3:14am May 19, 2008 3:14am
Billy, these are both simple trend trades. The trends are established on a particular timeframe and indicated by the rythmic bounce off of the areea of dynamic support and resistance (between the 30 SMA and 50 SMA). As a trend deteriorates, it starts nailing the 100 SMA. When that happens, I get away from this trend trading srategy and move onto a swing trading strategy. So, as they bounce out of the ADSR, I open my position. I place my SL just above the last swing high, and my take profit just above the latest significant support. In the case of the USDCAD, I was right on the money with a 40+ pip gain this morning. The EURCAD still needs to prove itself to me.

Quoting BillyRayValentine
Just curious what's your methodology/strategy for entering? How does it work? Just trying to figure it out...thanks!
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  • #179
  • May 19, 2008 3:24am May 19, 2008 3:24am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
CAD is a hard call right now because its a little ambiguous, due to the fact that lower support has been sloshed around for a little while, and there are multiple support levels which might or might not stick. The goal is to find the next decent retracement on this pair.

Take a look at this chart. You're right, this whole area holds some significance, but after Friday's bounce I feel the strongest support is just slightly lower, from .9918 up to .9934. It really is a tougher call to pinpoint this one to the pip, but I feel reversal in this area of some significance is to be noticed. Shaving off a couple on top and a couple on the bottom to narrow the range and doing some rounding, I would say:

Buy USD/CAD .9930 to .9920 (as low as possible, of course)

There's a chance I might might miss this one if it starts heading back starting at .9934 or higher, but I have a feeling it will move lower; just being conservative and avoiding any red as possible.
Could be a hard morning for the dollar as Friday's activity seems to continue today. All pairs showing strong movement anti$. Not going 90% on this one, but still in it with smaller size trying to get a quick scalp. In the zone right now we'll see if it sticks.
  • #180
  • May 19, 2008 3:26am May 19, 2008 3:26am
I seldom trade retracements. I've been burned way too many times with counter trend trades. I "buy support and sell resistance". The 30 SMA and 50 SMA act almost like my 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% fibs in a trending market. Once that 100 SMA is breeched, the party is over until the pair consolidates, or the trend has moved to a different time frame. If you look at the Gu chart, you can see that the weekly trend that had ben firmly in place since 22 Oct 2006, just disintegrated, in my mind, on 17 Feb or this year. Until the 100 SMA was pierced, you could have bought a position every time the price bounced from the 30-50 SMA areas and made good money.



Quoting BillyRayValentine
CAD is a hard call right now because its a little ambiguous, due to the fact that lower support has been sloshed around for a little while, and there are multiple support levels which might or might not stick. The goal is to find the next decent retracement on this pair.

Take a look at this chart. You're right, this whole area holds some significance, but after Friday's bounce I feel the strongest support is just slightly lower, from .9918 up to .9934. It really is a tougher call to pinpoint this one to the pip, but I feel reversal in this area of some significance is to be noticed. Shaving off a couple on top and a couple on the bottom to narrow the range and doing some rounding, I would say:

Buy USD/CAD .9930 to .9920 (as low as possible, of course)

There's a chance I might might miss this one if it starts heading back starting at .9934 or higher, but I have a feeling it will move lower; just being conservative and avoiding any red as possible.
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