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  • #141
  • May 16, 2008 10:11am May 16, 2008 10:11am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
If you were able to catch this it just paid +20 and right now fighting it......JPY is overall parabolic so I'm watching it pretty closely.

on a day like today quick profits are the way to go. also before the weekend. not looking to hit a home run on this one based on today's activity.

damn....stopped out at breakeven
  • #142
  • May 16, 2008 10:15am May 16, 2008 10:15am
Quoting scyang
Well it was just a panic call. I guess experienced traders never panic. But I am very new. It was just something way off the chart and way outside of expectation for today.

its not way off the charts.....you just have to realize that anything is possible......

on a day like today banks are moving markets like madmen, and not for the reasons we are trading.....there are all sorts of stops and levels they are looking to bust out before the weekend for a number of different reasons; order running, option expiration, etc. etc... its just typical. today's a good day for golf
  • #143
  • May 16, 2008 10:24am May 16, 2008 10:24am
Mark Douglas makes some good points about trading mentality. He borders a bit much on the metaphysical for my tastes but he does make some valid points. One thing I have learned, successful trading is counter intuitive. Simply put, if you trade your gut you will be wrong every time. Human nature is a "chase those pips" kind of dynamic. Fear gets us out early. (I couldn't have possibly called that right, could I?) and Greed keeps us in too long (The last time I got out with 20 pips and it ran another hundred, but not this time!)

S&R trading is a great filter for that because the process becomes mechanical. High probability trades with tight stops. If I can trade 10-15 times a week and net 30 pips average per trade I am a happy man. 1 mini lot would give you $300-$450 bucks a week. Not a fortune but consistency is the key because trading the same way with 1 standard lot is $3,000-$4,500 a week. (Could I really make that kind of money? Could I really expect to have a success rate more than 40%. Don't 95% of traders lose money?) If the last question is true then so what? 95% of ALL small businesses fail in the first 2 years and 80% of the ones that survive fail in the first 5 years. As for the first two questions only you can answer that. And I have a feeling how you answer will have a direct impact on the third question.

If anybody would like Mark Douglas' book just drop me a PM and I will email it to you
Energy and persistence conquer all things! Ben Franklin
  • #144
  • May 16, 2008 10:26am May 16, 2008 10:26am
Wow....every pair out there just moved about 150 pips in about 2 hours. Bad day for the buck. If it makes you feel any better today is far from normal.
  • #145
  • May 16, 2008 10:37am May 16, 2008 10:37am
Yep, I should have taken that advice. LOL. No biggy. I made tons this week.

Quoting BillyRayValentine
Yeah I was looking to reenter around here....not 90% but if its only 20 pips I'll take it...the retracement might not be over....I hate to say this but you might want to move your stop a little higher just in case this occurs, or move to breakeven, and look to reenter. !Just a suggestion, you do what's you feel is ok!
{Promotion Removed}
  • #146
  • May 16, 2008 10:37am May 16, 2008 10:37am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Wow....every pair out there just moved about 150 pips in about 2 hours. Bad day for the buck. If it makes you feel any better today is far from normal.

AUD just hit the high.....I'm staying away from this sh%$. its been a good week I dont want to ruin it.
  • #147
  • May 16, 2008 10:45am May 16, 2008 10:45am
Yeah, what a freaking ride! At least it was great for my long term USDJPY Short position. I even got to add to it today. That one has been really good to me. I entered my first prob lot on 15 february. That one scared the heck out of me the following day!!! Since that sday though, there's been NO drama at all!

Regards,
C

Quoting BillyRayValentine
Wow....every pair out there just moved about 150 pips in about 2 hours. Bad day for the buck. If it makes you feel any better today is far from normal.
{Promotion Removed}
  • #148
  • May 17, 2008 7:46am May 17, 2008 7:46am
Quoting scyang
Well it was just a panic call. I guess experienced traders never panic. But I am very new. It was just something way off the chart and way outside of expectation for today.

No worries, that's perfectly normal.
If you keep at it you will see that the market doesn't change it's nature but you will change the way you look at it. Just keep going.
Be like a post stamp! Stick to it until you get there!
  • #149
  • May 17, 2008 7:59am May 17, 2008 7:59am
Quoting Mary Pippins
No worries, that's perfectly normal.
If you keep at it you will see that the market doesn't change it's nature but you will change the way you look at it. Just keep going.
I think you do realize that I never intended for anybody to tell me what to do. It was just a way of saying.

I realize it takes time for one to grow up and mature as a trader.

Thanks for sharing experience, technical or otherwise.
Expected the unexpected
  • #150
  • May 17, 2008 8:40am May 17, 2008 8:40am
BRV great thread!
While you're at it why not include the trendline bounces that move price intraday and from daily charts? This is how we trade high percentage setups. We look for an ABC pattern to be playing out near the TL (trendline) or S/R (support resistance). We feel patterns move the market more than S/R. Do not trade 30 minutes before or after news. Only take the first touch of a 15minute TL if you miss it just stay out there are 10 a day. Stay in the trade until the 5minute stochastic moves to the opposite side for intraday moves and high percentage scalps. Losses come after this happens on the break of S/R so move stoploss to breakeven and take half off.

We've been trying to put together a skype group that trades like this. Btw we also play breaks of S/R which are not as high percentage but once you've traded them for a while you know which ones can move. Breakouts are much more subjective. With bounces you know within 20 pips where price is going to reverse. With breakouts you might get a false move beyond a TL and a spike back into the range.
Friday's moves should not scare anyone away. This happens every couple months or so. The market ran on a rumor and we had big option expirations Friday. A group with self serving objectives started a rumor about Bloomberg State Employment surveys showing 151k jobs lost in April which is much worse than the 21k reported loss and would put the USA in a definable recession. It's a shame when these fools make statements because it scares people out of the market and makes for high volatility. If you want to be ahead of these moves or at least know what's going on use Ransquawk or trade the news. Ransquawk is free from their site with a 30 second delay which is all we need to tech trading because we shut down 30 minutes before and after news. Trade the news text is $40/month and very handy to have a history of what has happened.
Good thread, Bro.
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It really is that easy.
  • #151
  • May 17, 2008 1:19pm May 17, 2008 1:19pm
  •  Dec1pher
  • | Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Deciphering the markets in realtime | 7 Posts
Hey BillyRay, I thought you just traded FCOJ. Guess you moved up to FX huh?
  • #152
  • May 17, 2008 10:25pm May 17, 2008 10:25pm
Great thread billy ray. Even , a very cool name. Billy Ray Valentine gives hope to many of us bums and beggars on the streets!!

This all combines really well with the J16 analysis but offers something a littel different. What you will have difficulty with is keeping this post 'clean'. If you or others are thinking too much, clearly it is not a no brainer trade.

Very enjoyable
thanks
MAx
Gravity goes both ways in forex...
  • #153
  • May 18, 2008 4:41am May 18, 2008 4:41am
Just thought I would throw this out there for anyone new to trading. You may look at some of these trades and say, "Well how is it that some of these trades are good for 20,30 or 40 pips or so and then they turn back and others run 150+." Here again, the answer is not too complicated. Bearing in mind there is an exception to every rule.

Bounces off S&R in favor of the previous trend tend to give up more pips. (Not that 20-40 pips is a bad trade) Otherwise the trade is a counter trend trade and the only time they payoff big is when you catch a top or a bottom. And btw, should you be fortunate enough to do that on a trade just be thankful and move on. Accept it as the luck it was. Here's why I say that. If you pick your favorite currency and zoom back through the data some Friday or Saturday afternoon, the moves that jump off the screen are the big ones. What NEVER jumps off the screen are the false breakouts. So what happens is we analyze that breakout or big reversal and (God Forbid) we add indicators until we have the perfect predictor for that particular move. So the next time we think we see that set up through our rose-colored-indicator-Warren-Buffet-eat-my-shorts-time-to-order-the-Mercedes-whirly bird machine, we go all in and lose big. Ask me how I know.

So when the bounce is against the trend I take my 20-40 pips and wait for the next set up (which sometimes is the exact same trade again) and if it's with the trend.... well I might still take my 20-40 pips (no one ever went broke taking a profit) but I am willing to accept more risk, such as, taking half off and moving my stop to break even, or maybe building a bigger position. Stuff like that.

I hope this helps and as always, Billy Ray, please feel free to add your thoughts.
Energy and persistence conquer all things! Ben Franklin
  • #154
  • May 18, 2008 4:44am May 18, 2008 4:44am
Quoting Mary Pippins
No worries, that's perfectly normal.
If you keep at it you will see that the market doesn't change it's nature but you will change the way you look at it. Just keep going.

It's not how many times we fall down but how many times we get up that make the difference! Does anybody know why the Dominoes Pizza "domino" has 2 dots on one side and 1 dot on the other?
Energy and persistence conquer all things! Ben Franklin
  • #155
  • May 18, 2008 5:04am May 18, 2008 5:04am
Quoting The Fxorce

We've been trying to put together a skype group that trades like this.

Glad to hear you guys are doing well. If you can get the Skype thing to work out then good for you. I tried it for awhile but didn't get much interaction. I had 15+ people sign up but I felt like I was doing all the work. Then there was a one-time occurence where some spyware company posted a warning which was just their sneaky way to get the members to let them scan their computers and then charge a fee to remove whatever they found. Oh and then there was the time some girls from China showed up looking for husbands but that's a whole other story. LOL

The upside is you get instant interaction and swapping charts is super easy because you can drag and drop them into the Skype chat box.

Believe me, I am not trying to rain on your parade, just wanted you to have the facts.
Energy and persistence conquer all things! Ben Franklin
  • #156
  • May 18, 2008 5:16am May 18, 2008 5:16am
Quoting Iron-man
Just thought I would throw this out there for anyone new to trading. You may look at some of these trades and say, "Well how is it that some of these trades are good for 20,30 or 40 pips or so and then they turn back and others run 150+." Here again, the answer is not too complicated. Bearing in mind there is an exception to every rule.

Bounces off S&R in favor of the previous trend tend to give up more pips. (Not that 20-40 pips is a bad trade) Otherwise the trade is a counter trend trade and the only time they payoff big is when you catch a top or a bottom. And btw, should you be fortunate enough to do that on a trade just be thankful and move on. Accept it as the luck it was. Here's why I say that. If you pick your favorite currency and zoom back through the data some Friday or Saturday afternoon, the moves that jump off the screen are the big ones. What NEVER jumps off the screen are the false breakouts. So what happens is we analyze that breakout or big reversal and (God Forbid) we add indicators until we have the perfect predictor for that particular move. So the next time we think we see that set up through our rose-colored-indicator-Warren-Buffet-eat-my-shorts-time-to-order-the-Mercedes-whirly bird machine, we go all in and lose big. Ask me how I know.

So when the bounce is against the trend I take my 20-40 pips and wait for the next set up (which sometimes is the exact same trade again) and if it's with the trend.... well I might still take my 20-40 pips (no one ever went broke taking a profit) but I am willing to accept more risk, such as, taking half off and moving my stop to break even, or maybe building a bigger position. Stuff like that.

I hope this helps and as always, Billy Ray, please feel free to add your thoughts.

That is very useful information, and as usual incredibly simple. Thanks

and the pizza?

Max
Gravity goes both ways in forex...
  • #157
  • May 18, 2008 6:14am May 18, 2008 6:14am
Quoting Iron-man
Just thought I would throw this out there for anyone new to trading. You may look at some of these trades and say, "Well how is it that some of these trades are good for 20,30 or 40 pips or so and then they turn back and others run 150+." Here again, the answer is not too complicated. Bearing in mind there is an exception to every rule.

Bounces off S&R in favor of the previous trend tend to give up more pips. (Not that 20-40 pips is a bad trade) Otherwise the trade is a counter trend trade and the only time they payoff big is when you catch a top or a bottom. And btw, should you be fortunate enough to do that on a trade just be thankful and move on. Accept it as the luck it was. Here's why I say that. If you pick your favorite currency and zoom back through the data some Friday or Saturday afternoon, the moves that jump off the screen are the big ones. What NEVER jumps off the screen are the false breakouts. So what happens is we analyze that breakout or big reversal and (God Forbid) we add indicators until we have the perfect predictor for that particular move. So the next time we think we see that set up through our rose-colored-indicator-Warren-Buffet-eat-my-shorts-time-to-order-the-Mercedes-whirly bird machine, we go all in and lose big. Ask me how I know.

So when the bounce is against the trend I take my 20-40 pips and wait for the next set up (which sometimes is the exact same trade again) and if it's with the trend.... well I might still take my 20-40 pips (no one ever went broke taking a profit) but I am willing to accept more risk, such as, taking half off and moving my stop to break even, or maybe building a bigger position. Stuff like that.

I hope this helps and as always, Billy Ray, please feel free to add your thoughts.
Here is an example of a bounce of the TL which is countertrend. Probably good for 20-40 pips on the first bounce. I use the J16 method and wouldn't have touched this one until 9 bars later when the OB appeared.

Do you have another entry method on countertrend that you use? Like 1,2,3 or EWT? My success ratio is very poor on these countertrend moves and I would like to increase the percentage.
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Balance in Everything
  • #158
  • May 18, 2008 8:44am May 18, 2008 8:44am
why wouldn't you of taken the pinbar?

max
Gravity goes both ways in forex...
  • #159
  • May 18, 2008 11:31am May 18, 2008 11:31am
Quoting max pips
why wouldn't you of taken the pinbar?

max
It's not truly a PB. More like a nuetral bar.
Balance in Everything
  • #160
  • May 18, 2008 11:46am May 18, 2008 11:46am
it's bouncing of a trend line though. Push the three bars together and imagine a 12 hour chart and it would be quite a cool pinbar then. Also a few bars later is a dlhc of the trend line.

That said if you are not confident of the trade you should not take it (this is my major problem!!)

max
Gravity goes both ways in forex...
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