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No Brainer Trades

  • Post #1
  • Quote
  • First Post: Edited Mar 20, 2017 9:23pm May 14, 2008 6:50am | Edited Mar 20, 2017 9:23pm
Hi everyone,

I'm starting this thread for the benefit of all for trade setups with 90%+- accuracy and reliability. When I say this I'm talking about posting trades with obvious levels of heavy support and resistance where not getting in seems like the dumbest thing to do. For the Negative Nancy's out there please dont scorn me on the 90% accuracy figure. With most of these trades you could atleast scalp for 20 pips, others have paid out hundreds of pips.

If you feel you have something please post but make sure your confidence level is way above average.

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UPDATE October 25, 2013: Much has changed since this thread was started over 5 years ago, and indeed I realize I am rare in the sense of old timers even thinking about updating a thread that has such age to it. I'll cut to the chase: I basically halted updating this thread because I was getting slammed in terms of questions and requests. Anyone that has ever been in my shoes knows that it is not a fun position to be in, as you basically start to get insulted for not helping people, which is ridiculous as far as I or any rational person would be concerned. I was posting trades left and right until I found out that a decent number of FF readers were copying them, all the while mismanaging them in the process. I took down the thread performance record due to the sense that my regulators don't particularly care for me posting trades online, and I am not a fan of anything biting me in the butt in case the anonymity ever went away. Common sense if you ask me.

The blog was started in order to keep my writing alive, because I do and always have enjoyed it, while slowing down the inundations. It worked, and the site is alive, well and still going. I reply to pretty much every comment on the blog to answer questions - if I don't its just because I probably forget about it, but I do prefer it because it keeps everything organized and topics on point.

Everything listed on it is a completely free resource and there are heaps of materials posted on it now, all pretty much centric on price action. If you are looking for the important contents of just "get to the point" type of material, I assembled a "Best of the Blog" page where everything can be found, which you can find here.

I have been trading for, probably, way too long and I have had ups and downs like anyone else in terms of who I do business with and in trading itself. But FF has allowed me to basically work on empowering others with common sense, a quality seriously lacking in this industry. And I've been honored to be listed to on such a scale. And while it is impossible for me to void out a lack of control in everyone that reads what I write, I have earnestly hoped that at least a few people have gained value from what I have to say.

One of my favorite quotes is (probably cliche) but by Mark Twain:

Quote
Don't go around saying the world owes you a living. The world owes you nothing. It was here first.

So just get out of bed, do your work, exercise common sense, and

Quote
Take the easy ones, and don't do anything stupid in the meantime.

Thank you, and enjoy.

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Blog: http://nobrainertrades.com

See below for important posts about this strategy, and a .pdf compilation


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Important Posts - Nuts and Bolts of the Strategy Used Here


Full Blown Cache of Materials / Most Concise / Up To Date, Found Here: http://www.nobrainertrades.com/forex...inertrades-com
Strategy Overview (BRV) - http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=443
Reality Realization and Trader Reactions in Regards to Market Forces (BRV) - http://forexfactory.com/showpost.php...postcount=1615
Trade Planning and Mental Maintenance (BRV) - http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1420
Basic Math Behind Making the Most of Your Trades (BRV) - http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1253
Strong versus Weak Levels (BRV) - http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=779
Knowing if the Level will Hold/When to Fade, When Not to Fade (BRV) - http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=780
Measure Twice, Cut Once http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=4716
Basic Approach Using Fundamentals and Sentiment to Determine Daily Market Direction (BRV) - http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=4107
Fibonacci Extensions (BRV) - http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=781
Losing Trading FX (And a Simple Solution) - http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=4453
About Diagonal Trendlines (BRV) - http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=787
Trade continuation (Ironman) - http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=153
Taking Profits (Ironman) - http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=609
Taking Profits (BRV) - http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=617
Taking Profits 2 (Ironman) - http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=324
Typical Day (BRV) - http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=329
AAA - The Missing Link - http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=12101
Trade Anatomy example (BRV) - http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=356
Entries and Exits (Ironman) - http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=164
Intraday Scalping (BRV) - http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=272
Intraday Scalping 2 (BRV) - http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=946
Intraday Scalping 3 (BRV) - http://forexfactory.com/showpost.php...postcount=3158
The Bottom of the Bucket - http://forexfactory.com/showpost.php...postcount=3156
Spike Base Pattern - http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...se#post2758294
Over and Under Pattern - http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...86429&page=803
1-2-3 Breakout! Pattern - http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=11820
Hourly Closes (BRV) - http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=274
The Most Profitable Traders - http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=95528


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Here are some on the way or in progress:

USD/JPY short, 105.70 to 105.60
hit it 3 times and made a nice bounce everytime, expecting the same to happen today or tomorrow if price makes it up there. Shorting lower level resistance at 104.44 is paying out about 25 pips right now.

USD/CHF short, 1.0630 to 1.0620
high of the recent s/r levels. Right now its bouncing off of 1.0600 resistance giving a good 30pip payout

GBP/USD long, 1.9362 to 1.9388
this one is in progress but here for demonstration...about 40 pips so far. Another opportunity for a long is coming at 1.9337

Thanks, please keep them coming. I'm generally very busy but if I have the time to post I'll be sure to.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CHF.jpg Size: 80 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: JPY.jpg Size: 88 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBP.jpg Size: 97 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf BRV_S+R_Trading_210808.pdf   879 KB | 36,594 downloads | Uploaded Aug 24, 2008 11:12pm
  • Post #2
  • Quote
  • Edited 7:22am May 14, 2008 7:02am | Edited 7:22am
EUR/JPY short at 163.00. This will probably coincide with the JPY short, again, if price can get up there. EUR/JPY can get volatile sometimes so be a little careful on position size.

Also, watch out for news with any of these levels. Its is easiest way to bust s/r.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY.jpg Size: 82 KB
Sure why not...here's another one:

Long AUD 0.9290, long AUD 0.9272
right now bouncing off higher level support of .9300 for about 33 pips.

with any of these there are multiple support/resistance levels in these ranges. some you might take some heat on if price flows up to the next one, but fading the higher/lower level and breaking even on the first one isnt uncommon. so set your stop lossess accordingly. profit is profit.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUD.jpg Size: 105 KB
  • Post #4
  • Quote
  • Edited 12:00pm May 14, 2008 7:40am | Edited 12:00pm
Long USD/CAD at the 0.9986 range

you could go at parity right now and scale into a position if you wanted to in case price continues to push down, which it might
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CAD.jpg Size: 104 KB
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Long USD/CAD at the 0.9986 range

you could go at parity right now and scale into a position if you wanted to in case price continues to push, which it might
this just gave up about 17 pips profit and then came down to .9970. I'm staying long momentarily though because there is decent support at these levels.
  • Post #6
  • Quote
  • Edited 8:26am May 14, 2008 8:15am | Edited 8:26am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Hi everyone,

I'm starting this thread for the benefit of all for trade setups with 90%+- accuracy and reliability. When I say this I'm talking about posting trades with obvious levels of heavy support and resistance where not getting in seems like the dumbest thing to do. For the Negative Nancy's out there please dont scorn me on the 90% accuracy figure. Find another hobby. With most of these trades you could atleast scalp for 20 pips, others have paid out hundreds of pips.

If you feel you have something please post but make sure your confidence level is way above average.

Here are some on the way or in progress:

USD/JPY short, 105.70 to 105.60
hit it 3 times and made a nice bounce everytime, expecting the same to happen today or tomorrow if price makes it up there. Shorting lower level resistance at 104.44 is paying out about 25 pips right now.

USD/CHF short, 1.0630 to 1.0620
high of the recent s/r levels. Right now its bouncing off of 1.0600 resistance giving a good 30pip payout

GBP/USD long, 1.9362 to 1.9388
this one is in progress but here for demonstration...about 40 pips so far. Another opportunity for a long is coming at 1.9337

Thanks, please keep them coming. I'm generally very busy but if I have the time to post I'll be sure to.
GBP up to 60 pips at the lower level. FYI I realize this is after the fact of the time of the trade post. Please use for learning.
I like your thinking, and I have the last week been demotrading this kind of trades when price is on its way to seemingly heavy support and resistance and take small profits, its a bit tricky so far but I will follow this thread with interest
Quoting NowAndLater
I like your thinking, and I have the last week been demotrading this kind of trades when price is on its way to seemingly heavy support and resistance and take small profits, its a bit tricky so far but I will follow this thread with interest
Thanks. If you hit a level the first and second time, payouts are the best generally speaking. The more it gets hit the less payout/level of probability you get.
Great job man!!! I like your touch. I trading like u. But im using with strong supports and resistances Stochastic with setting 18,3,3. Im waiting today for overrun (80 or 20 line) on Stoch with pairs: G/U, U/CHF, U/J, E/J. Last month i got every week with this style about +500 pips on 6 pairs together. Keep on and Good luck
Quoting BillyRayValentine
EUR/JPY short at 163.00. This will probably coincide with the JPY short, again, if price can get up there. EUR/JPY can get volatile sometimes so be a little careful on position size.

Also, watch out for news with any of these levels. Its is easiest way to bust s/r.
In my haste to post I forgot to talk about ranges. This one just hit 162.90 and came in the money about 50 pips. Keep an eye on these levels and a relevant range where price might begin to retrace. You can see on the chart that the support resistance level is within this range, so for a conservative entry, this would have been it.

In the future I'll post the ranges instead of the static numbers. This one is a good example. I got in it but sorry for anyone that missed and also I'm not confident about reusing this level in the very near future. Please use good judgement. thanks
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Sure why not...here's another one:

Long AUD 0.9290, long AUD 0.9272
right now bouncing off higher level support of .9300 for about 33 pips.

with any of these there are multiple support/resistance levels in these ranges. some you might take some heat on if price flows up to the next one, but fading the higher/lower level and breaking even on the first one isnt uncommon. so set your stop lossess accordingly. profit is profit.
so for example on this one you want to go long from the top to the bottom of this range. One way to do it is put on a portion of your position at the top and another at the bottom, just to be safe. Like on the CAD trade above I have an entry at .9986 and another one at .9970. Up 20 and 36 pips right now, respectively. Again, going forward, I'll post the ranges. thanks
Quoting BillyRayValentine
GBP up to 60 pips at the lower level. FYI I realize this is after the fact of the time of the trade post. Please use for learning.
I was able to get about 100 pips from this one in about 3 hours, just to give you an idea. Anything else to contribute I'll keep u posted.
I've been looking at daily ranges and especially the average range of 13 days (like the fibos) and I find that if a pair has run about its daily average range and comes close to a strong resistance/support level it gives a very good prediction of a small correction. Do you look at that BillyRayValentine?

EDIT: looking at the UDSCAD this happened very nicely today about two hours ago, the daily average range was 105pips and after moving exacly 105 pips it turned north and that was close to the weekly s1 as well
Quoting NowAndLater
I've been looking at daily ranges and especially the average range of 13 days (like the fibos) and I find that if a pair has run about its daily average range and comes close to a strong resistance/support level it gives a very good prediction of a small correction. Do you look at that BillyRayValentine?

EDIT: looking at the UDSCAD this happened very nicely today about two hours ago, the daily average range was 105pips and after moving exacly 105 pips it turned north and that was close to the weekly s1 as well
Sorry you must have misunderstood me. I didn't mean daily ranges of the pair, I meant the range of the multiple support and resistance levels.

For instance, the "buy range" on CAD would have been .9988 - .9970.
I'm still in this one but took some off. gave about 30 pips from the upper level as in the original post, and 45 from the lower level.....we'll see how it hangs.
Long EUR 1.5360 to 1.5370

EUR is currently bouncing off of 1.5396 support. After this retrace, if it moves down, I'm expecting it to 1.5363 and then a decent bounce. You might also be able to score a few pips more on 1.5396 again, but its riskier.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR.jpg Size: 101 KB
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Long USD/CAD at the 0.9986 range

you could go at parity right now and scale into a position if you wanted to in case price continues to push, which it might
Up to 46 pips from this post. 62 from lower level. still going.
Quoting BillyRayValentine
EUR/JPY short at 163.00. This will probably coincide with the JPY short, again, if price can get up there. EUR/JPY can get volatile sometimes so be a little careful on position size.

Also, watch out for news with any of these levels. Its is easiest way to bust s/r.
It looks like this pair is going to give another crack at this in the next few minutes/hour or so. I'm going for it but with a smaller position size. This is not 90%. Also if momentum gets too wild I might stay out completely.

I still feel probability is good on it, however, because EUR has a magnet on lower levels right now and JPY might bounce from resistance again today, in which case, they both go down and I get paid. We'll see what happens.

The first one would have been the ideal one to get. That paid 80 pips.
  • Post #18
  • Quote
  • Edited 12:05pm May 14, 2008 11:39am | Edited 12:05pm
FYI all my trades are based on horizontal support and resistance. Diagonal trend lines prove a lot less reliable, generally speaking. Rather not take the risk if I'm not certain about something, and wait for the right time to trade. I despise losing money.

I'll use technical indicators while I'm in a trade but rarely. I'd suggest using DeMark indicators if your livelyhood depends on it. Just use something consistent and that you are comfortable with.

Either way, price can't bullsh*# you like an RSI can .

Also I posted these ignoring the current levels out there and what was going on, trying to look ahead. both USD/CHF and USD/JPY had good trade opportunities on lower level resistance today. its still there and opportunities might come again. if you look at a 3 or 4 hour chart and scroll back you'll see how obvious they were. just being honest here and you might still be able to make money fading these points, as price is below them right now.
  • Post #19
  • Quote
  • Edited 11:47pm May 14, 2008 11:18pm | Edited 11:47pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
EUR/JPY short at 163.00. This will probably coincide with the JPY short, again, if price can get up there. EUR/JPY can get volatile sometimes so be a little careful on position size.

Also, watch out for news with any of these levels. Its is easiest way to bust s/r.
+66 pips fading this again...German GDP coming out in a few hours might have a + or - affect on this so protecting....
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Sure why not...here's another one:

Long AUD 0.9290, long AUD 0.9272
right now bouncing off higher level support of .9300 for about 33 pips.

with any of these there are multiple support/resistance levels in these ranges. some you might take some heat on if price flows up to the next one, but fading the higher/lower level and breaking even on the first one isnt uncommon. so set your stop lossess accordingly. profit is profit.
Nailed .9290 for + 25 pips so far

There is more support at .9275 so if it heads lower I would fade that too
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