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  • #121
  • May 16, 2008 5:47am May 16, 2008 5:47am
AUD/NZD look to be at all time highs again, from well 2 years ago. I wonder if she shall fall again.
  • #122
  • May 16, 2008 7:25am May 16, 2008 7:25am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
I'm up +28 pips on this so far and it seems to be moving down nicely, not to say that can't change. If it can close below that crappy diagonal trendline the push might last for a while, so we'll see. It hasn't taken a breath all day.

I doubt we're seeing JPY today. It hit 104.15 pretty hard and raced back up. Maybe come Monday, or a chance to short again around 105.45.

CAD might have another chance at .9986 but I dont think I would stay long on that one for a while; it might break, so probably just a quick scalp.

A whole lotta stop running going on......

aud is gunning it past these marks, but they still might hold a little bit

this thing could push higher into the .9540 range. also there is data coming out in a few minutes, which could add to the pile.

fridays.....don't you just love them?
  • #123
  • May 16, 2008 7:36am May 16, 2008 7:36am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
A whole lotta stop running going on......

aud is gunning it past these marks, but they still might hold a little bit

this thing could push higher into the .9540 range. also there is data coming out in a few minutes, which could add to the pile.

fridays.....don't you just love them?

ha! housing starts were extremely positive and aud barely budged.

looking for the high at .9542. but based on momentum anything is possible with this today. my stop is way above that just in case.

banks are having a bloody feast. once they get what they are after things will cool, but have to see how high they want to go. need some sellers asap!
  • #124
  • May 16, 2008 7:53am May 16, 2008 7:53am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
ha! housing starts were extremely positive and aud barely budged.

looking for the high at .9542. but based on momentum anything is possible with this today. my stop is way above that just in case.

banks are having a bloody feast. once they get what they are after things will cool, but have to see how high they want to go. need some sellers asap!
sidenote: I think its hilarious how this market, or any market acts on days like today. aud is fundamentally weak right now, and yet you see these drastic moves on a day in and day out basis by speculators or banks looking to bust orders and trade in the direction of the move. efficient or total bs? where's Milton Friedman when you need him. oil is a joke, based on hysteria and little to do with fair market prices. Now I'm gonna short this because that's what I feel like doing, and that's what it looks like the banks are doing now short-term, but still, hilarious.
  • #125
  • May 16, 2008 8:01am May 16, 2008 8:01am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
ha! housing starts were extremely positive and aud barely budged.

looking for the high at .9542. but based on momentum anything is possible with this today. my stop is way above that just in case.

banks are having a bloody feast. once they get what they are after things will cool, but have to see how high they want to go. need some sellers asap!
the 1 hour bar just closed in the lower portion of its range, so the trade still shows good promise. Mary Pippins there's your pin bar . today is whacky though, so we'll see what develops.
  • #126
  • May 16, 2008 8:13am May 16, 2008 8:13am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
the 1 hour bar just closed in the lower portion of its range, so the trade still shows good promise. Mary Pippins there's your pin bar . today is whacky though, so we'll see what develops.
What level did you short AUDUSD? It's awful stubborn today. USD has been gaining across the board after the housing numbers, but AUD just doesn't want to budge even though, as you said, AUD is fundamentally weak. The market truly is hysterical.
Expected the unexpected
  • #127
  • May 16, 2008 8:19am May 16, 2008 8:19am
Quoting scyang
What level did you short AUDUSD? It's awful stubborn today. USD has been gaining across the board after the housing numbers, but AUD just doesn't want to budge even though, as you said, AUD is fundamentally weak. The market truly is hysterical.

I've got 2 portions open right now. One is in the money, the other is not. Took heat on both.

Yeah like I said the banks are taking out stops like nuts today. Patience pays off on days like these. Typical for a Friday though.....we arent the only ones looking for a short around here .
  • #128
  • May 16, 2008 8:22am May 16, 2008 8:22am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
I've got 2 portions open right now. One is in the money, the other is not.

Yeah like I said the banks are taking out stops like nuts today. Patience pays off on days like these. Typical for a Friday though.....we arent the only ones looking for a short around here .
Good. I hope it goes down soon. Can't wait. I guess you did say patience pays.
Expected the unexpected
  • #129
  • May 16, 2008 8:23am May 16, 2008 8:23am
USDCHF looks like its coming up on resistance again....I'm staying away from it though because today has proved to be a little ugly.

USDCAD busted through .9968 area and could be a good fade lower I'll take a look at it

if I see anything else I'll post, but not really right now
  • #130
  • May 16, 2008 8:24am May 16, 2008 8:24am
Quoting scyang
Good. I hope it goes down soon. Can't wait. I guess you did say patience pays.
same here but not counting on anything just gonna wait it out...
  • #131
  • May 16, 2008 8:30am May 16, 2008 8:30am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
USDCHF looks like its coming up on resistance again....I'm staying away from it though because today has proved to be a little ugly.

USDCAD busted through .9968 area and could be a good fade lower I'll take a look at it

if I see anything else I'll post, but not really right now
Well I am in USDCHF from yesterday. It was way down earlier, but has come back since thanks to the green housing data. Will see what consumer sentiment number bring us.
Expected the unexpected
  • #132
  • May 16, 2008 8:45am May 16, 2008 8:45am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
the 1 hour bar just closed in the lower portion of its range, so the trade still shows good promise. Mary Pippins there's your pin bar . today is whacky though, so we'll see what develops.

Yeah, I love pin bars in the right places , especially after long runs in one direction and the higer the TF the more I dare to rely on them.
I'm with you on the AUDUSD short, though H1 TF can be either a bit of a feeble let down sometimes or a really early ticket for the gravy train. Time will tell.
I quite like the pins on the Kiwi and call me crazy but I'm long on that one with a larger S/L.

It came to my attention that aud and kiwi to the dollar are quite correlated usually but since March they diverted, could the pins be an indication of either one of them closing in on the other one or may them meeting in the middle? That's my assumption anyways.

Still long on cable since yesterday
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Aussie&Kiwi Dollar.JPG Size: 151 KB
Be like a post stamp! Stick to it until you get there!
  • #133
  • May 16, 2008 9:08am May 16, 2008 9:08am
Quoting Mary Pippins
Yeah, I love pin bars in the right places , especially after long runs in one direction and the higer the TF the more I dare to rely on them.
I'm with you on the AUDUSD short, though H1 TF can be either a bit of a feeble let down sometimes or a really early ticket for the gravy train. Time will tell.
I quite like the pins on the Kiwi and call me crazy but I'm long on that one with a larger S/L.

It came to my attention that aud and kiwi to the dollar are quite correlated usually but since March they diverted, could the pins be an indication of either one of them closing in on the other one or may them meeting in the middle? That's my assumption anyways.

Still long on cable since yesterday
Well the consumer sentiment number came in bad. That won't help AUDUSD. What are we going to do now?
Expected the unexpected
  • #134
  • May 16, 2008 9:45am May 16, 2008 9:45am
Quoting scyang
Well the consumer sentiment number came in bad. That won't help AUDUSD. What are we going to do now?

Well, I'd suggest to keep reading and learn.

There's somehting I'd like to ask you in the name of quality of this thread and I don't mean to be stepping on your toes.
If you ask a questions like "What are we going to do now?" you dont really offer anything to this thread and take up another comment box without putting any real value in.
Also it's not ideal to expect others to do the thinking for you in terms of learning, as this business is about making judgements and you run into danger to become a follower of other peoples judgements without developing your own.

I'm following this thread because I consider BRV of higher skill then myself, and to see how he makes his judgements by, reading his posts, asking him questions or asking him how he relates to my own assessments.
I'm very grateful if he answers or even if somebody else asks/mentiones about some viewpoint on something.

What are we going to do now has barely any "food for thought" and gives the illusion that "we" are in it together but the truth is that in, FX like in life, we are all alone with our decisions so lets make the best out our time and help one another to get better at decision making.

Again, no offence intended, hope you take it as my well meant advice, since I know what it's like as I do find myself not knowing what to do in some situations.
Be like a post stamp! Stick to it until you get there!
  • #135
  • May 16, 2008 9:49am May 16, 2008 9:49am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Long USD/JPY at 104.00 (104.04 - 104.96)

This is playing off of a bouce of what has already been very strong former support and resistance, now support, if price can move that far. Also, its now a .50 retracement of the main wave; double whammy. You should atleast be able to scramble some quick cash on this one, if not set up for a longer dollar bull move.

If you were able to catch this it just paid +20 and right now fighting it......JPY is overall parabolic so I'm watching it pretty closely.

on a day like today quick profits are the way to go. also before the weekend. not looking to hit a home run on this one based on today's activity.
  • #136
  • May 16, 2008 9:51am May 16, 2008 9:51am
Quoting scyang
Well the consumer sentiment number came in bad. That won't help AUDUSD. What are we going to do now?
My short term plan is just to stick on it for the time being.......if you're not comfortable with the risk you might have a chance to breakeven before the weekend. Hopefully you already have some profit from the lower level if you took the trade. That gave up about +25 or so for me....

Its at .95 right now so I'm about 10 pips neg on my top position.....nothing for me to go nuts over.
  • #137
  • May 16, 2008 9:56am May 16, 2008 9:56am
I though AUDUSD was going to test 9540, but I think it might be going down now. What do you guys think?
  • #138
  • May 16, 2008 10:00am May 16, 2008 10:00am
Quoting ver.xontm
I though AUDUSD was going to test 9540, but I think it might be going down now. What do you guys think?
Again hard to say......it needs to relax a little at some point, but overall difficult to guage on a day like today
  • #139
  • May 16, 2008 10:03am May 16, 2008 10:03am
Quoting Mary Pippins
Well, I'd suggest to keep reading and learn.

There's somehting I'd like to ask you in the name of quality of this thread and I don't mean to be stepping on your toes.
If you ask a questions like "What are we going to do now?" you dont really offer anything to this thread and take up another comment box without putting any real value in.
Also it's not ideal to expect others to do the thinking for you in terms of learning, as this business is about making judgements and you run into danger to become a follower of other peoples judgements without developing your own.

I'm following this thread because I consider BRV of higher skill then myself, and to see how he makes his judgements by, reading his posts, asking him questions or asking him how he relates to my own assessments.
I'm very grateful if he answers or even if somebody else asks/mentiones about some viewpoint on something.

What are we going to do now has barely any "food for thought" and gives the illusion that "we" are in it together but the truth is that in, FX like in life, we are all alone with our decisions so lets make the best out our time and help one another to get better at decision making.

Again, no offence intended, hope you take it as my well meant advice, since I know what it's like as I do find myself not knowing what to do in some situations.
lol....thanks
  • #140
  • May 16, 2008 10:08am May 16, 2008 10:08am
Quoting Mary Pippins
Well, I'd suggest to keep reading and learn.

There's somehting I'd like to ask you in the name of quality of this thread and I don't mean to be stepping on your toes.
If you ask a questions like "What are we going to do now?" you dont really offer anything to this thread and take up another comment box without putting any real value in.
Also it's not ideal to expect others to do the thinking for you in terms of learning, as this business is about making judgements and you run into danger to become a follower of other peoples judgements without developing your own.

I'm following this thread because I consider BRV of higher skill then myself, and to see how he makes his judgements by, reading his posts, asking him questions or asking him how he relates to my own assessments.
I'm very grateful if he answers or even if somebody else asks/mentiones about some viewpoint on something.

What are we going to do now has barely any "food for thought" and gives the illusion that "we" are in it together but the truth is that in, FX like in life, we are all alone with our decisions so lets make the best out our time and help one another to get better at decision making.

Again, no offence intended, hope you take it as my well meant advice, since I know what it's like as I do find myself not knowing what to do in some situations.
Well it was just a panic call. I guess experienced traders never panic. But I am very new. It was just something way off the chart and way outside of expectation for today.
Expected the unexpected
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