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  • #61
  • May 15, 2008 7:58pm May 15, 2008 7:58pm
I exited this a few horus ago on that little spinning top bull candle at 23:00. I got out at 161.79. Nice little piece of trade there. I re-shorted off the retracement at 161.95 with a nice TIGHT SL half way up the candles on the recent support at 162.20. I don't expect much on this run, but we'll see. I only took 1/2 position on this retracement play. The first one was a double order so I made a ton of money on this one. I was able to keep the SL extra tight. The tight SL (163.10) made it possible for me to double up on my position size! SWEET trade.

Regards,
C

Quoting BillyRayValentine
You should be up about +100 pips on this one, +140 max; I think it should go further. I was looking to reenter a short at 162.25 area, but I dont know if its going to see it and continue on its nosedive...could even get stopped out even if it does. Its bouncing off of former support right now (also would have been a good trade for a long). If it can break it you're right into the 106's.
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  • #62
  • May 15, 2008 8:20pm May 15, 2008 8:20pm
Quoting ciscoguy
I exited this a few horus ago on that little spinning top bull candle at 23:00. I got out at 161.79. Nice little piece of trade there. I re-shorted off the retracement at 161.95 with a nice TIGHT SL half way up the candles on the recent support at 162.20. I don't expect much on this run, but we'll see. I only took 1/2 position on this retracement play. The first one was a double order so I made a ton of money on this one. I was able to keep the SL extra tight. The tight SL (163.10) made it possible for me to double up on my position size! SWEET trade.

Regards,
C

Yeah I was looking to reenter around here....not 90% but if its only 20 pips I'll take it...the retracement might not be over....I hate to say this but you might want to move your stop a little higher just in case this occurs, or move to breakeven, and look to reenter. !Just a suggestion, you do what's you feel is ok!
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  • #63
  • May 15, 2008 9:28pm May 15, 2008 9:28pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Sure why not...here's another one:

Long AUD 0.9290, long AUD 0.9272
right now bouncing off higher level support of .9300 for about 33 pips.

with any of these there are multiple support/resistance levels in these ranges. some you might take some heat on if price flows up to the next one, but fading the higher/lower level and breaking even on the first one isnt uncommon. so set your stop lossess accordingly. profit is profit.
AUD is approaching .95, perhaps a good short trade soon?
  • #64
  • May 15, 2008 9:32pm May 15, 2008 9:32pm
Quoting Clouds
AUD is approaching .95, perhaps a good short trade soon?
What do you all think about audusd. Is it high enough to short yet or will it go higher still?
Expected the unexpected
  • #65
  • May 15, 2008 9:39pm May 15, 2008 9:39pm
Quoting scyang
What do you all think about audusd. Is it high enough to short yet or will it go higher still?
I think wait.
  • #66
  • May 15, 2008 9:40pm May 15, 2008 9:40pm
Quoting Clouds
I think wait.
Some RAB person will be speaking in a couple of hours and that might move the pair in some marked way.
Expected the unexpected
  • #67
  • May 15, 2008 9:48pm May 15, 2008 9:48pm
Quoting scyang
Some RAB person will be speaking in a couple of hours and that might move the pair in some marked way.
CAD is at parity ,but it looks like it's been dieing to go below, these last few days.
  • #68
  • May 15, 2008 10:47pm May 15, 2008 10:47pm
This thread appears to be a good wake up call for getting back to good old P/A, support and resistance, and patience.

The A/U trade looks interesting if price reaches 9470's - definitely at 9500.

A/J right now at 98.80 looks like a decent short.

Good job Billy Ray.
History is written by the victors.
  • #69
  • May 15, 2008 10:48pm May 15, 2008 10:48pm
Just a small one for dessert!
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Energy and persistence conquer all things! Ben Franklin
  • #70
  • May 15, 2008 11:02pm May 15, 2008 11:02pm
I 'm looking for a break to the downside. The beast (GBPJPY) may be rolling over!
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Energy and persistence conquer all things! Ben Franklin
  • #71
  • May 15, 2008 11:04pm May 15, 2008 11:04pm
Quoting Money-RX
This thread appears to be a good wake up call for getting back to good old P/A, support and resistance, and patience.

The A/U trade looks interesting if price reaches 9470's - definitely at 9500.

A/J right now at 98.80 looks like a decent short.

Good job Billy Ray.
Yeah I think the pair right run into some toughness .9454 -.9446

.9480 -.9470 I plan on selling for shorter term,

and you're right....9498 - .9504 is your best bet.....the whip shall cracketh
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  • #72
  • May 15, 2008 11:06pm May 15, 2008 11:06pm
It's has been long over due. A thread that get's us back to basics.This is my new home. I mean .... uh ....that is ...if I can stay. uh can I?
Energy and persistence conquer all things! Ben Franklin
  • #73
  • May 15, 2008 11:09pm May 15, 2008 11:09pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Yeah I think the pair right run into some toughness .9454 -.9446

.9480 -.9470 I plan on selling for shorter term,

and you're right....9498 - .9504 is your best bet.....the whip shall cracketh
If you draw a line at the last two highs, it comes in at around .9460 I'll be watching what happens there.
  • #74
  • Edited 11:39pm May 15, 2008 11:16pm | Edited 11:39pm
Quoting Iron-man
Just a small one for dessert!
yum...kiwi

kiwi is in one disasterous fall right now, and though I definately see what you're saying Ironman, I'm actually waiting for a good sell around .7730 to .7750. Just not seeing a lot of historical s/r at the current level, although it may work out. .7730 is stronger short term, but .7750 seems stronger longer term. I would say def. at .7750.

one more thing (not drawn here but you can do it yourself) around .7734 to 37 you have a .50 retracement of the last major wave. big stuff all around here, so we'll see how it goes.

So here we go:

Sell NZD/USD .7730 -.7750, ideally closer to .7750

again to rehash my strategy I might want to put on a part of the position at .7730 area, and the rest or more at .7750.....this is what I do atleast so I dont miss out if it doesnt want to crawl any higher
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  • #75
  • Edited 11:31pm May 15, 2008 11:18pm | Edited 11:31pm
Quoting Iron-man
It's has been long over due. A thread that get's us back to basics.This is my new home. I mean .... uh ....that is ...if I can stay. uh can I?
sure you can put put your coat on the bed upstairs.....just please take your shoes off or the wife will get pissed.
  • #76
  • Edited 11:45pm May 15, 2008 11:30pm | Edited 11:45pm
Quoting Iron-man
I 'm looking for a break to the downside. The beast (GBPJPY) may be rolling over!
I'm scared of this pair. My experience with GBP JPY makes me think about horrible things . Good setup otherwise. Personally not a big fan of diagonal trendlines as I feel the probability is a little lower.

Like here's an example, please correct me if I am doing this wrong......EUR closed below the trendine on a 3, 4 hr chart, signifying a further decline and a bounce upward would use the trendline as resistance at which you would sell. It happened for about 18 pips, and then came racing back up. Ironman not discrediting work here by any means its a good setup and has paid off many times (and please keep up the input its really good), I just get weary as the approach in general can be ambiguous sometimes, in terms of where to enter. just my 2 cents
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  • #77
  • May 15, 2008 11:37pm May 15, 2008 11:37pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
yum...kiwi

kiwi is in one disasterous fall right now, and though I definately see what you're saying Ironman, I'm actually waiting for a good sell around .7730 to .7750. Just not seeing a lot of historical s/r at the current level, although it may work out. .7730 is stronger short term, but .7750 seems stronger longer term. I would say def. at .7750. So here we go:

Sell NZD/USD .7730 -.7750, ideally close to .7750

again to rehash my strategy I might want to put on a part of the position at .7730 area, and the rest or more at .7750.....this is what I do atleast so I dont miss out if it doesnt want to crawl any higher
My price alerts are set! (7730-7750)
I was forwarded an email last week that Citi Bank sold the Kiwi around 7775 with a SL at 8050 and a target of 7385. That does line up with what you said. Thanks again!
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Energy and persistence conquer all things! Ben Franklin
  • #78
  • May 15, 2008 11:42pm May 15, 2008 11:42pm
Quoting Iron-man
My price alerts are set! (7730-7750)
I was forwarded an email last week that Citi Bank sold the Kiwi around 7775 with a SL at 8050 and a target of 7385. That does line up with what you said. Thanks again!
I just edited the previous post talking about a retracement there too.....I used to work for a bank, btw, please be careful what you read!
Take a look at Lehman's currency portfolio and it'll give you an astonishing -5 - 5% a year. Citibank DOES have the best technical analysis, I'll give them that, so if you're listening to anyone, they should be it. The team is based out of London and I forget the names but if I come across it I'll let u know.
  • #79
  • May 15, 2008 11:45pm May 15, 2008 11:45pm
Quoting Iron-man
My price alerts are set! (7730-7750)
I was forwarded an email last week that Citi Bank sold the Kiwi around 7775 with a SL at 8050 and a target of 7385. That does line up with what you said. Thanks again!
and yeah there is more resistance at .7775 - 85 ....I would be prepared for a push into that area just in case...its also a .50 retracement of the next larger wave
  • #80
  • May 15, 2008 11:47pm May 15, 2008 11:47pm
I prefer diagonal channel lines in a longer term trending line unlike E/U which appears to be quite choppy for the last week or two.

G/J could pop out either way although possible bull wedge forming.
History is written by the victors.
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