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  • #181
  • May 19, 2008 3:36am May 19, 2008 3:36am
EUR might see a snap at around 1.5650 if it can get up there, but not putting it on the books. Minor area of resistance but big retracement zone.
  • #182
  • Edited 3:41am May 19, 2008 3:39am | Edited 3:41am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
EUR might see a snap at around 1.5650 if it can get up there, but not putting it on the books. Minor area of resistance but big retracement zone.
Snap meaning reversing and going down? But once it broke 1.5620, it looks bullish all the way to almost 1.57.
Expected the unexpected
  • #183
  • May 19, 2008 3:42am May 19, 2008 3:42am
If I were a counter trend man, I'd be Long USDCAD as soon as this current 5 minute candle closes and is still bullish. I think i might also look at the AUDUSDfor a short opportunty. BUT, I'll wait for the bounce off my area of dynamic support and resistance, in a few hours. I've already made my goal money for the day. I'll only take A+ setups for the rest of the day.

Regards,
C

Quoting BillyRayValentine
Could be a hard morning for the dollar as Friday's activity seems to continue today. All pairs showing strong movement anti$. Not going 90% on this one, but still in it with smaller size trying to get a quick scalp. In the zone right now we'll see if it sticks.
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  • #184
  • May 19, 2008 3:52am May 19, 2008 3:52am
Quoting scyang
Snap meaning reversing and going down? But once it broke 1.5620, it looks bullish all the way to almost 1.57.
Yeah I meant for a scalp sell short.
  • #185
  • May 19, 2008 3:54am May 19, 2008 3:54am
Quoting ciscoguy
If I were a counter trend man, I'd be Long USDCAD as soon as this current 5 minute candle closes and is still bullish. I think i might also look at the AUDUSDfor a short opportunty. BUT, I'll wait for the bounce off my area of dynamic support and resistance, in a few hours. I've already made my goal money for the day. I'll only take A+ setups for the rest of the day.

Regards,
C
Right....watching it now its a little whacky.

I was +19 max on this so far, executed at .9930, the top of that area I was talking about earlier.
  • #186
  • May 19, 2008 4:02am May 19, 2008 4:02am
I'm not taking this trade. The 4H candle did close below the 30-50 SMA area, but not decidedly so, so I'll be looking for more certrain trades. I believe the EURCAD may have hit the bottom of the 4H trend. We'll know more later in the week.

Quoting ciscoguy
EURCAD - Short upon 4H close below 1.5534. SL 1.5608 TP: 1.5440

Be very careful that you have a confirmation for this trade. If it does not CLOSE below 1.5534 on the 4H candle, forget it. It COULD break out LONG. if it does not close below the recommended level, I'll sit this one out.

If it does drop, I'll be looking for the price to break 1.5400. If it breaks that level, the next stop is WAY down. 1.5200 - 1.5180 looks like the next level of significant support. i had to go all the way to the 1W timeframe to find it. Good money if she breaks down below 1.5400!
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  • #187
  • May 19, 2008 4:05am May 19, 2008 4:05am
Quoting ciscoguy
I'm not taking this trade. The 4H candle did close below the 30-50 SMA area, but not decidedly so, so I'll be looking for more certrain trades. I believe the EURCAD may have hit the bottom of the 4H trend. We'll know more later in the week.
thx for following up......yeah the general feeling out there seems bullish eur and bullish usdcad, just reading around Street consensus. but again, ya never know. high probablility, right?
  • #188
  • May 19, 2008 4:05am May 19, 2008 4:05am
Billy, in another 8-10 hours, this one should be hitting the ADSR again. I expect another good bounce. It's worth the wait to be in this one with the trend. There's a lot of downside to this one depending on what happens at NY open.

Quoting BillyRayValentine
Right....watching it now its a little whacky.

I was +19 max on this so far, executed at .9930, the top of that area I was talking about earlier.
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  • #189
  • May 19, 2008 4:10am May 19, 2008 4:10am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
yum...kiwi

kiwi is in one disasterous fall right now, and though I definately see what you're saying Ironman, I'm actually waiting for a good sell around .7730 to .7750. Just not seeing a lot of historical s/r at the current level, although it may work out. .7730 is stronger short term, but .7750 seems stronger longer term. I would say def. at .7750.

one more thing (not drawn here but you can do it yourself) around .7734 to 37 you have a .50 retracement of the last major wave. big stuff all around here, so we'll see how it goes.

So here we go:

Sell NZD/USD .7730 -.7750, ideally closer to .7750

again to rehash my strategy I might want to put on a part of the position at .7730 area, and the rest or more at .7750.....this is what I do atleast so I dont miss out if it doesnt want to crawl any higher
I was able to nab +40 partial on this before it crept higher, as I thought it might have per my previous post. Potential is still there, as this entire range up to .9960 shows a lot of previous resistance/support. Next mark up to .7785-.7800. Again, any area that has been used and abused is worth some caution, but momentum hasn't seen this mark as resistance for quite some time.
  • #190
  • May 19, 2008 4:15am May 19, 2008 4:15am
Yep. The thing is, there's always something SOLID to trade. I threw way too much money away by over-trading. Now, I take A+ trade setups. I'll take an occasional B+ setup, if I've already made way over my weekly money-goal, but this is my business so I stay away from "entertaining" trades LOL. Simple rules keep me in the black, and limit my downside on losers.


Regards,
C

Quoting BillyRayValentine
thx for following up......yeah the general feeling out there seems bullish eur and bullish usdcad, just reading around Street consensus. but again, ya never know. high probablility, right?
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  • #191
  • May 19, 2008 4:19am May 19, 2008 4:19am
Quoting ciscoguy
Billy, in another 8-10 hours, this one should be hitting the ADSR again. I expect another good bounce. It's worth the wait to be in this one with the trend. There's a lot of downside to this one depending on what happens at NY open.
True, but I'm wondering if its going to hold at this point (if it does go higher). Its hit the trendline about 7 or 8 times now with a successful bounce in the direction of the trend. What's your experience with that?

Also, if you look at a daily chart, you can draw a pretty perfect diagonal trendline from 2-28 and 3-07 to around its "bottoming point" around now. Not to say it (the trendline) will hold as I generally dont rely on them but its there.
  • #192
  • May 19, 2008 4:20am May 19, 2008 4:20am
Quoting ciscoguy
Yep. The thing is, there's always something SOLID to trade. I threw way too much money away by over-trading. Now, I take A+ trade setups. I'll take an occasional B+ setup, if I've already made way over my weekly money-goal, but this is my business so I stay away from "entertaining" trades LOL. Simple rules keep me in the black, and limit my downside on losers.


Regards,
C
hahahahaha...ditto....that's why we all learn
  • #193
  • May 19, 2008 4:25am May 19, 2008 4:25am
That's why i wait for a confirmed bounce before placing my trade. Like I said, if it gets anywhere near the 100 SMA (the blue one on my charts), it's a strong signal for me to stay out of the pair. Even if the PA spends too many bars past the 50 SMA (Red one on my charts), I'm not comfy with the trade and will sit it out. Going long on this pair, or EURCAD, right now is a mistake IMO. But then, I am a trend trader. Others are very successful playing retracements. I lose sleep over them LOL.

Quoting BillyRayValentine
True, but I'm wondering if its going to hold at this point (if it does go higher). Its hit the trendline about 7 or 8 times now with a successful bounce in the direction of the trend. What's your experience with that?

Also, if you look at a daily chart, you can draw a pretty perfect diagonal trendline from 2-28 and 3-07 to around its "bottoming point" around now. Not to say it will hold as I generally dont rely on them but its there.
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  • #194
  • May 19, 2008 4:40am May 19, 2008 4:40am
Quoting ciscoguy
That's why i wait for a confirmed bounce before placing my trade. Like I said, if it gets anywhere near the 100 SMA (the blue one on my charts), it's a strong signal for me to stay out of the pair. Even if the PA spends too many bars past the 50 SMA (Red one on my charts), I'm not comfy with the trade and will sit it out. Going long on this pair, or EURCAD, right now is a mistake IMO. But then, I am a trend trader. Others are very successful playing retracements. I lose sleep over them LOL.
Noticed you started a thread.....
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=87091
keep me posted I like the input
  • #195
  • May 19, 2008 4:45am May 19, 2008 4:45am
Wow Billy, I totally ignored your question regarding trendline bounces. I don't really count bounces from the trendline. I start watching PA as soon as it enters the ADSR. When it enters, i start looking at higher timeframes for other S/R. If the trade can still meet my risk:reward rules, I start looking at lower timeframes for entry signals. I only trade confirmed bounces. I leave a few pips on the table at the beginning of the swing, but I make more on the other end of the trade.

Quoting ciscoguy
That's why i wait for a confirmed bounce before placing my trade. Like I said, if it gets anywhere near the 100 SMA (the blue one on my charts), it's a strong signal for me to stay out of the pair. Even if the PA spends too many bars past the 50 SMA (Red one on my charts), I'm not comfy with the trade and will sit it out. Going long on this pair, or EURCAD, right now is a mistake IMO. But then, I am a trend trader. Others are very successful playing retracements. I lose sleep over them LOL.
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  • #196
  • May 19, 2008 4:45am May 19, 2008 4:45am
Billy:

Do you post GBPUSD trades??
  • #197
  • May 19, 2008 4:46am May 19, 2008 4:46am
Yep. I wanted to start a journal of my trades. Something to keep me honest.

Quoting BillyRayValentine
Noticed you started a thread.....
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=87091
keep me posted I like the input
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  • #198
  • May 19, 2008 4:48am May 19, 2008 4:48am
Quoting oscarfrx
Billy:

Do you post GBPUSD trades??
Yeah I had one in the middle of last week that went for a couple hundred pips but it was already underway. Haven't finished digging through charts yet today but I'll try to post them as I see them.
  • #199
  • May 19, 2008 4:51am May 19, 2008 4:51am
Quoting Dec1pher
Actually, my earlier post was a reference to it as well. I was wondering if anyone would catch it. Definitely a classic and one my my favs.

Keep up the good posts, I enjoy your thread!
hahaha....Apologies....gotta give credit where its due.....you're the first !
  • #200
  • May 19, 2008 4:52am May 19, 2008 4:52am
Ok Billy I will be waiting for your posts.

TY
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