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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #66,561
  • May 18, 2008 3:03pm May 18, 2008 3:03pm
Quoting Gubster
Its the rightmove house price data that im worried about!! Its got to be bad!

exactly bro it might trigger a selloff
on the other hand if it came in better than expected(highly unlikely) it would continue this bullish run possibly to 9750 area.
"what doesn't bankrupt me, makes me stronger" modern nietzche
  • #66,562
  • May 18, 2008 3:16pm May 18, 2008 3:16pm
Gold has had two up days after morning star, if it keeps ralling cable is going with it.
  • #66,563
  • May 18, 2008 3:19pm May 18, 2008 3:19pm
Quoting Runway Trade
Gold has had two up days after morning star, if it keeps ralling cable is going with it.
gold had a direct relation with cable????

they have an indirect relation which is basically the dollar but i don't think what ur saying can apply.
"what doesn't bankrupt me, makes me stronger" modern nietzche
  • #66,564
  • May 18, 2008 3:26pm May 18, 2008 3:26pm
Quoting salah k.
gold had a direct relation with cable????

they have an indirect relation which is basically the dollar but i don't think what ur saying can apply.

Gold is going up in what appears to me to be an impulse. I had the correction bottoming in the 850 to 798 area. It barely made 850 which indicates a strong market but cable is not affected much by golds movements like other currencies
Don't chase the market, Let the market come to you
  • #66,565
  • May 18, 2008 3:27pm May 18, 2008 3:27pm
Quoting Tmac
Gold is going up in what appears to me to be an impulse. I had the correction bottoming in the 850 to 798 area. It barely made 850 which indicates a strong market but cable is not affected much by golds movements like other currencies
ur right and the only currency affected by gold is the aussie
"what doesn't bankrupt me, makes me stronger" modern nietzche
  • #66,566
  • May 18, 2008 3:38pm May 18, 2008 3:38pm
Quoting salah k.
ur right and the only currency affected by gold is the aussie
i wish i knew this on friday....that currency burnt me like i ws in a hell pit ....lol
  • #66,567
  • May 18, 2008 3:49pm May 18, 2008 3:49pm
Quoting salah k.
gold had a direct relation with cable????

they have an indirect relation which is basically the dollar but i don't think what ur saying can apply.
When Gold goes up, USD get weaker, GBP get stronger vs USD. But AUD is the one dirrectly related.
  • #66,568
  • May 18, 2008 3:54pm May 18, 2008 3:54pm
My bias on CABLE on a small swing trade would be shorting on a break of 8EMA down to recent lows (1.93593) but suddenly I've become interested in the comments made on the Rightmove release (scheduled tonight at 00:01 GMT). Assuming the release confirmed further bearish sentiment in the UK housing market, what do people think this might do to CABLE?

Daniel
  • #66,569
  • May 18, 2008 4:01pm May 18, 2008 4:01pm
Quoting Carrera
When Gold goes up, USD get weaker, GBP get stronger vs USD. But AUD is the one dirrectly related.

yes dude ur right but in the case of euro or others
in the case of gbp/usd
well both are in a shitty place so the formula u said above is well known but im afraid wont work for cable.
"what doesn't bankrupt me, makes me stronger" modern nietzche
  • #66,570
  • May 18, 2008 4:02pm May 18, 2008 4:02pm
Nice, just made 15 pips on market open.
  • #66,571
  • May 18, 2008 4:04pm May 18, 2008 4:04pm
Quoting aidaweb01
My bias on CABLE on a small swing trade would be shorting on a break of 8EMA down to recent lows (1.93593) but suddenly I've become interested in the comments made on the Rightmove release (scheduled tonight at 00:01 GMT). Assuming the release confirmed further bearish sentiment in the UK housing market, what do people think this might do to CABLE?

Daniel
i believe it might trigger a selloff
"what doesn't bankrupt me, makes me stronger" modern nietzche
  • #66,572
  • May 18, 2008 4:31pm May 18, 2008 4:31pm
Quoting salah k.
yes dude ur right but in the case of euro or others
in the case of gbp/usd
well both are in a shitty place so the formula u said above is well known but im afraid wont work for cable.
yea you right, well you know, I'm technical trader so I paid poor atention to that.
  • #66,573
  • May 18, 2008 4:43pm May 18, 2008 4:43pm
Quoting salah k.
i believe it might trigger a selloff
Thanks for your reply Salah. I would be interested if you could further explain the rationale behind your belief.

If my 'fundementals' understanding is correct, a weaker housing market indicates a weaker economy. A weaker economy should attract investment from abroad. So with respect of CABLE, people would be selling USD to buy GBP - with more demand for GBP so it strengthens against the USD and the pair goes up (as opposed to down which is what my technicals are showing me!!)

Forgive any basic schoolboy errors in the above, I'm a 100% technical trader who believes the fundementals are priced into the technicals but who is currently trying to understand a bit more on the bigger picture.

Any explanations of what really could happen would be very welcome.

Daniel
  • #66,574
  • May 18, 2008 5:01pm May 18, 2008 5:01pm
Quoting aidaweb01
Thanks for your reply Salah. I would be interested if you could further explain the rationale behind your belief.

If my 'fundementals' understanding is correct, a weaker housing market indicates a weaker economy. A weaker economy should attract investment from abroad. So with respect of CABLE, people would be selling USD to buy GBP - with more demand for GBP so it strengthens against the USD and the pair goes up (as opposed to down which is what my technicals are showing me!!)

Forgive any basic schoolboy errors in the above, I'm a 100% technical trader who believes the fundementals are priced into the technicals but who is currently trying to understand a bit more on the bigger picture.

Any explanations of what really could happen would be very welcome.

Daniel
no problem bro we are both beginners

take USA for example. the housing problem led it here(very very weak dollar)

now look at UK its housing problem will probably lead cable to be weak.

now u c a weak economy due to housing and credit crunches can be sparked by rate cuts which traders usually assume will happen.

now if this number was weak and halifax number is also weak traders will look for a rate cut from BOE this month.(trader psychology)

which will ultimately lead investors to wait for a bottom and then attack full throttle. and not when the problem is still bursting.

now thats the way i see it mate but there are other traders in here who will explain it better.

all the best bro.
"what doesn't bankrupt me, makes me stronger" modern nietzche
  • #66,575
  • May 18, 2008 5:32pm May 18, 2008 5:32pm
Quoting salah k.
no problem bro we are both beginners

take USA for example. the housing problem led it here(very very weak dollar)

now look at UK its housing problem will probably lead cable to be weak.

now u c a weak economy due to housing and credit crunches can be sparked by rate cuts which traders usually assume will happen.

now if this number was weak and halifax number is also weak traders will look for a rate cut from BOE this month.(trader psychology)

which will ultimately lead investors to wait for a bottom and then attack full throttle. and not when the problem is still bursting.

now thats the way i see it mate but there are other traders in here who will explain it better.

all the best bro.
Cheers Salah, I see your train of thought and it makes good sense. I just wonder with inflation at 3% whether BOE will hold fire on any further rate cuts. Guess thats the call at the moment!
  • #66,576
  • May 18, 2008 5:37pm May 18, 2008 5:37pm
Quoting aidaweb01
Cheers Salah, I see your train of thought and it makes good sense. I just wonder with inflation at 3% whether BOE will hold fire on any further rate cuts. Guess thats the call at the moment!
yeah bro they are in a big mess
stagflation is a tough b**** to beat.

i guess they have to see which problem is worse at the moment.
"what doesn't bankrupt me, makes me stronger" modern nietzche
  • #66,577
  • May 18, 2008 5:44pm May 18, 2008 5:44pm
Well that was intresting never watched a gap fill before.
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #66,578
  • May 18, 2008 5:47pm May 18, 2008 5:47pm
Oh I think they will hold.


Quoting aidaweb01
Cheers Salah, I see your train of thought and it makes good sense. I just wonder with inflation at 3% whether BOE will hold fire on any further rate cuts. Guess thats the call at the moment!
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #66,579
  • May 18, 2008 6:02pm May 18, 2008 6:02pm
good number from Rightmove House Price Index
"what doesn't bankrupt me, makes me stronger" modern nietzche
  • #66,580
  • May 18, 2008 6:20pm May 18, 2008 6:20pm
Quoting salah k.
good number from Rightmove House Price Index
Where did you see the number published? Have been eagerly refreshing the page on Rightmove website and its not been published there yet!

Interesting point on stagflation. Theoretically (and historically) restricting money supply can help, but BOE kind of suggested they will adopt a 'hurry up and wait/do nothing' approach. I'm not sure if thats going to help us. Of course they could always come up with a differant way to measure inflation!

Read an interesting article that shows if we used inflation measures that we used 10-15 years ago, inflation would currently be 11%. Now thats real stagflation...
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