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Igrok Method. Q's & A's. Comments, thoughts and ideas

  • #1,101
  • May 15, 2008 5:09am May 15, 2008 5:09am
Nice broadening triangle on AUDUSD 15m chart.
  • #1,102
  • May 18, 2008 6:21pm May 18, 2008 6:21pm
Quoting jotty
Hi Igrok,

On the EUR/GBP daily chart, does it look like we are forming a diamond

Don't think so. But it seems to be a diamond on USD/CHF daily instead. Because of that the entire Friday's range was easily predictable as the market was bouncing between two borders inside of this formation.
  • #1,103
  • May 18, 2008 6:26pm May 18, 2008 6:26pm
Quoting davelochen
Yes, I can sometime see (or perhaps imagine) the similarity between the EUR and CHF in terms of the technical picture but cant really make use of the information in one chart, to trade the other. This is further complicated if I do a simple statistical correlation analysis (for the closing prices) which seems to indicate that EUR/USD and USD/CHF are negatively correlated by a significant amount and therefore move in opposite directions on daily, weekly and monthly basis. Thanks for letting me know about the relationship between USDX and EUR. Do USDX show a very similar technical picture to the EUR and therefore significant enough to trade the EUR base on the USDX technical picture.

If during a typical trading day, I determine the main move of the day to be UP (bottom formed first, followed by top) but by the end of the day, the market has made a new bottom, which is lower than the
1. EUR is the biggest component in USDX basket and both charts look similar quite often.
2. THe main move is the main move. No exceptions have to be made for it's determination while considering a particular time frame.
  • #1,104
  • May 18, 2008 7:26pm May 18, 2008 7:26pm
I've got 4 touches on a daily trendline for the AUD/USD. First one being near beginning of Nov 07.

I want to confirm that my data is right, because if it falls back down a bit i'll add some more to a long AUD/USD trade
  • #1,105
  • May 18, 2008 8:03pm May 18, 2008 8:03pm
Quoting Blackinc
I've got 4 touches on a daily trendline for the AUD/USD. First one being near beginning of Nov 07.

I want to confirm that my data is right, because if it falls back down a bit i'll add some more to a long AUD/USD trade
Looks like a nice opportunity for taking a longer-term short position here.
  • #1,106
  • May 18, 2008 8:32pm May 18, 2008 8:32pm
Quoting Igrok
Looks like a nice opportunity for taking a longer-term short position here.
Haha, always throwing a spanner in my works.

Why do you say short?
Everything to me says up.
Apart from the market sentiment, which is the USD is going to get stronger.
  • #1,107
  • May 19, 2008 12:16am May 19, 2008 12:16am
Quoting Blackinc
Haha, always throwing a spanner in my works.

Why do you say short?
Everything to me says up.
Apart from the market sentiment, which is the USD is going to get stronger.
1. Positioning. The market is extremely long on AUD.
2. Potential MACD weekly divergence targeting 0.85 area when and if it gets complete.
3. Bullish signals on USD vs. some other majors.
  • #1,108
  • May 19, 2008 10:20am May 19, 2008 10:20am
Quote
I've got 4 touches

4 touches on USD/CHF 4 Hour chart ATM.

Looks like it's headed for a fifth right now.
Might be nice long if it can get through.

The only thing is the Daily range would be above average with such a move
  • #1,109
  • May 19, 2008 10:23am May 19, 2008 10:23am
Quoting BentRod
4 touches on USD/CHF 4 Hour chart ATM.

Looks like it's headed for a fifth right now.
Might be nice long if it can get through.

The only thing is the Daily range would be above average with such a move
I already told about it. It's a diamond on daily.
  • #1,110
  • May 19, 2008 10:26am May 19, 2008 10:26am
Ah, you did too.

I should have been looking at the bigger picture.
  • #1,111
  • May 19, 2008 10:34am May 19, 2008 10:34am
Looking at it again, given the daily range, do you favor a bounce off the top or a breach?

A short trade on a bounce doesn't make sense because it is against the MMOTMonth/Day.

Am I on the right track?
  • #1,112
  • May 19, 2008 10:55am May 19, 2008 10:55am
Quoting BentRod
Looking at it again, given the daily range, do you favor a bounce off the top or a breach?

A short trade on a bounce doesn't make sense because it is against the MMOTMonth/Day.

Am I on the right track?
Seems like a continuation pattern to me.
  • #1,113
  • Edited 4:53pm May 20, 2008 12:21pm | Edited 4:53pm
In my opinion we have a Diamond on USDJPY H4.

According to my analysis:

Diagonale is downwards => break might happen upwards - long term target 112.8. BUT: long term downtrend line will be though resistance @ 106 - 106.5

On the other hand if break is downwards we might revisit the lows @ 95.9

Any comments / hints on this diamond (if it is one)? Any thoughts about breakout direction?

BTW... everybody is screaming that Dollar has to go down soon... everywhere one can read about the worst scenarios. Do you know whether such sentiment is created by banks / brokers intentionally by having some influencers in the most important Forex forums?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy_diamond_20080520.JPG Size: 129 KB
  • #1,114
  • May 20, 2008 3:27pm May 20, 2008 3:27pm
BTW... another question you might be able to answer with your experience.

Taking a look at USDJPY and DowJones the movements are very comparable.

What fascinates me at the moment is the symmetrical development of dow jones (see attachment).

Do you know about the probability that this move continues as symmetrical as it did recently? Does this whole symmetrical pattern act normally as a reversal pattern. If YES, this would also mean that the diamond in USDJPY should break to the south side. Also supportline in Dow Jones has already been broken to the south.

hmmm......
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dj_20080502_re.JPG Size: 61 KB
  • #1,115
  • Edited 11:05pm May 21, 2008 10:54pm | Edited 11:05pm
1. The buck has come back to pay out some debts. On 04/23 it left a gap on USDX at 71.82, which got filled eventually just less than an hour ago. It seems that the buck could be bought at or right ahead onf 71.60 against some majors and preferably against the AUD and EUR.
2. There is no diamond on USD/JPY. The formation is not accurate enough to be identified as such.
3. There was a fully formed diamond on Dow monthly chgart with the initial downward break out. After reaching the measured objective target the market came back to probe its lower right border again. So far the line has been rejecting all the the attempts, the market failed to make a break back into this formation again and is currently drifting lower after that. Overall picture doesn't look very similar to the USD/JPY chart.
  • #1,116
  • May 22, 2008 5:00am May 22, 2008 5:00am
Thanks for your comments! Could you please post a picture of the DJ monthly diamond? unfortunately I failed to figure out this one...
  • #1,117
  • May 22, 2008 7:50am May 22, 2008 7:50am
Quoting ernesto
Thanks for your comments! Could you please post a picture of the DJ monthly diamond? unfortunately I failed to figure out this one...

Here is DOW monthly. Also it looks quite interesting that the USD was bought today right after USDX covered the gap at 71.82, which is today's low.
Attached Image
  • #1,118
  • Jun 4, 2008 4:47am Jun 4, 2008 4:47am
The formation on EUR/USD daily and weekly charts looks like a reversal diamond to target 1.5550 area.
  • #1,119
  • Jun 4, 2008 3:06pm Jun 4, 2008 3:06pm
I Haven't got Todays Bar yet but is this drawn correctly?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EuroDiamondDaily.jpg Size: 112 KB
  • #1,120
  • Jun 4, 2008 3:11pm Jun 4, 2008 3:11pm
Also Igrok,
What is your current view on USDCAD?
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