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RSI Daily Pivot Point System v2.0

  • #141
  • Jan 26, 2007 4:11pm Jan 26, 2007 4:11pm
Quoting tim4kaye
Kevin - I use MT4 through Interbank FX and I have been short the pound/dollar since 1-24. I am now +97 pips. I have never used anything but Interbank FX and I have no complaints. They have a problem with re-quotes during news releases but that does not effect this trading system.

Tim
Nice job with your success Tim! I think I will still trade Oanda, but just use FXDD's MetaTrader. Howard suggested them since they don't use weekend data, and so far I'm liking it! I will look into Interbank eventually when I've had some more success.

Quote
PS I MetaTrader is pretty sweet
One question though, How to remove weekend data?

Hi Kevin

Download Metatrader from FXDD website, it does not have weekend bar and also daily bars close at 10:00 pm GMT (05:00 pm EST), which is an advantage.

If you download from any broker who has weekend bar, you cannot remove it.[/quote]

Thank you for the recommendation Howard!

Shone, I would look into FXDD's MetaTrader like Howard suggested. The #1 thing I like about it so far is that it excludes weekend data..

Quote
Hey Kevin how ya doing? I'm trying your system on my mini platform. Working pretty good. Think I'm going to start using it next week on my standard platform. I've tried a few, , of these threads on here and I think yours is working out the best. THANK YOU VERY MUCH. Let me know if I can do anything for you. I'm pretty knowledgeable with support and resistances if you need to anything. Thanks again. Take care and make money.

Hey broc,
I'm doing ALRIGHT. Losing weeks are tough, and I'm trying not to think too much about forex for at least this weekend. I know it was just a bad week for me personally, and I look forward to next week using metatrader's more accurate candles. Losses happen, and I know next week will be better. I need to stop overtrading.

I'm glad things are working out for you, and I might take you up on a little support resistance lesson one day when I'm feeling up to it.

Good luck!
Kevin
  • #142
  • Edited 10:16pm Jan 26, 2007 7:03pm | Edited 10:16pm
Hi Kevin,

I'm curious when your new MetaTrader charts end the trading day. My chart server ends the daily candle at 5:00 p.m. EST, and it would be great if we were on all the same "page" in regard to discussing potential trades. If MetaTrader is different, I may just download their charts to use for comparison.

Thanks.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #143
  • Jan 27, 2007 4:31pm Jan 27, 2007 4:31pm
Quoting yen44x
Hi Kevin,

I'm curious when your new MetaTrader charts end the trading day. My chart server ends the daily candle at 5:00 p.m. EST, and it would be great if we were on all the same "page" in regard to discussing potential trades. If MetaTrader is different, I may just download their charts to use for comparison.

Thanks.
Hey yen,
I JUST got my Mac back from the shop ! Unfortunately, I can't use Meta Trader on it BUT I have found a substitute Java interface platform that uses the same time frames. The close of each candle should be the same as yours which is 6pm EST.

Also, I am working on a year's worth of backtesting data that I will have out hopefully by monday for all 4 pairs. This is a loooong process, but it will include dates, and some good statistics stuff..

ALSO,
I think I am going to trade strictly only at the close from here on out. It is too emotionally stressful to watch my currencies all day. Out of sight out of mind is my logic here. I will still let you know my trades each day, and look forward to the backtest results.

Kevin
  • #144
  • Jan 27, 2007 4:55pm Jan 27, 2007 4:55pm
hey kharvell......
which charting package are you using on your mac.
Same Whore .... Different Dress
  • #145
  • Jan 27, 2007 6:23pm Jan 27, 2007 6:23pm
Quoting kharvell
Hey yen,

Also, I am working on a year's worth of backtesting data that I will have out hopefully by monday for all 4 pairs. This is a loooong process, but it will include dates, and some good statistics stuff..

Kevin . . . Great! That will be very helpful for everyone, but especially for anyone looking at your system for the first time.

ALSO,
I think I am going to trade strictly only at the close from here on out. It is too emotionally stressful to watch my currencies all day. Out of sight out of mind is my logic here. I will still let you know my trades each day, and look forward to the backtest results.
Kevin
That's probably a very wise decision. The "magic" of this system is that very little time is involved, and yet it can be very profitable. Trying to make decisions in the "heat of battle" while a candle is still forming and RSI is still bouncing around brings all kind of emotions into play, which often leads to a poor trade.

Plus, I'm assuming your back testing is all based on the completed daily candle. If those tests prove to be profitable, there's no reason to conclude it won't be profitable in forward testing also. At times, entering a trade at the conclusion of the candle may cost you a few pips, but there will be many other times when it saves you a few pips or keeps you out of a bad trade entirely.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #146
  • Jan 28, 2007 3:24am Jan 28, 2007 3:24am
I also agree that entering a trade at the close of a daily bar (17:00 est 22:00 GMT) would be a much wiser decision, as this is a daily method not intraday.
Regards
  • #147
  • Jan 28, 2007 10:18am Jan 28, 2007 10:18am
Kevin . . .

I'm interested in your feedback on a few potential trades, all based on analyzing trades at the conclusion of a daily candle per your suggestion:

1. It appears that GBP/USD had a high pivot on 1/23, but RSI didn't confirm a short trade until the end of the 1/26 candle on my charts. Since the 1/26 candle was on a Friday, my broker was closed by the time the daily candle finished forming. So, the first opportunity to actually place the trade would be Sunday the 28th for those of us who live in the U.S. Would you feel comfortable placing that trade on a Sunday?

2. Regarding the same GBP/USD pair, your rules state that for a short trade, one of the "go" signals would be RSI under 50 and sloping down. While the overall RSI is sloped down over the last 4 days or so, the angle of the slope became much less pronounced the last couple of trading days before RSI finally confirmed it. How would that affect your opinion of this trade?

3. USD/CHF: A low pivot formed on 1/23, was not confirmed until close of day on 1/26, so I would have the same question as #1 on this trade.

Thanks!
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #148
  • Jan 29, 2007 1:30am Jan 29, 2007 1:30am
Guys,
I've been doing a lot of research on Ichimoku Kinko Hyo lately, and I think I have come up with a system that puts this one to shame.. It is a bit more intense than this one; involving Resistances and adding more and taking partial profits. Have done some quick backtesting and it looks like it could profit 4000+ GBP/USD in the past year between 5-6 MAIN trades ( I will explain more later) and AT LEAST 4000 on GBP/JPY between 2-3 MAIN trades.

I won't just leave you hanging.. Read up about Ichimoku here and get ready to make some serious PIPS I need a couple of free days, which I should have after tomorrow, and I will create some good rules!

PS The reason I'm doing this is because the backtest results for this were PROFITABLE, but not as good as I thought. We're talking 50% win ratio VS the 75% I thought. I think that I'm onto something with the ichimoku and will let you know.
  • #149
  • Jan 29, 2007 4:03am Jan 29, 2007 4:03am
Hi Kevin,

The beauty of this current method is the simplicity -- without the clutter of indicators in the chart. And not to mention how it fits well to those who have day jobs.

Just wondering....will you still contribute your knowledge on this one or will you concentrate on the possible new method with Ichimoku?

Thanks and all the best!

Wally
  • #150
  • Jan 29, 2007 8:16am Jan 29, 2007 8:16am
Quoting wallym
Hi Kevin,

The beauty of this current method is the simplicity -- without the clutter of indicators in the chart. And not to mention how it fits well to those who have day jobs.

Just wondering....will you still contribute your knowledge on this one or will you concentrate on the possible new method with Ichimoku?

Thanks and all the best!

Wally
For as long as I am able, I will surely help you guys
  • #151
  • Jan 29, 2007 9:06am Jan 29, 2007 9:06am
Hey Kevin one quick question please. If you get in a trade at the close of the day, don't you miss your magic number? I thought you just set a pending order for your magic number and your stop loss?
  • #152
  • Jan 29, 2007 3:42pm Jan 29, 2007 3:42pm
broc,

I had the same misunderstanding in the beginnig. I thought that the magic number was the entry point, therefore requiring having your nose in front of the monitor for when the magic number was hit.

I believe, though, that the magic number is simply a number that needs to be "passed". Once passed, and with RSI confirmation, you can initiate your trade in the specified direction. Waiting 'til the end of the day may sometimes cause you to get in a tad late (if the magic number and RSI confirmed a trade, say, around lunchtime), but it's solid confirmation that I think we're looking for here.

In my education as a trader and in spending time here at FF I've seen people advise that it's often good enough to simply hop into a trend once it gets underway....don't beat yourself up trying to define it's exact beginning. Which was why I thought it was so important to enter ON the magic number. Trying to squeeze every last pip from the trend.

Randy
  • #153
  • Jan 29, 2007 3:59pm Jan 29, 2007 3:59pm
Thank you for your insight and knowledge Randy. Take care.
  • #154
  • Jan 29, 2007 11:39pm Jan 29, 2007 11:39pm
OK
I have made my new system, and it is actually just as easy as the RSI Pivot system, with just more lines. Below are the results of the past year with both systems:

I am going to start forward testing my new system, and keep a journal which can be found here

Tomorrow, I will get to any unanswered questions. I'm sorry for my tardiness, but I have been working 12 hour days between work and school, and finally I get tomorrow off

Best wishes,
Kevin
Attached Image
  • #155
  • Jan 30, 2007 1:03am Jan 30, 2007 1:03am
Great stuff K......looking forward to the new system.
Same Whore .... Different Dress
  • #156
  • Jan 30, 2007 10:31am Jan 30, 2007 10:31am
Hi Kevin, Thank you for sharing all this with us with your busy schedule. We really do appreciate it. Don't work to hard.
  • #157
  • Jan 30, 2007 10:56am Jan 30, 2007 10:56am
Alright guys,
Attached are a pdf file for RSI Pivot system including 1 year data for USD/CHF, GBP/USD, and AUD/JPY. Please note that these are trading strictly the closes each day.

I am also including some detailed backtesting of my new system(tweaked some things for some better results) for GBP/JPY and GBP/USD. I believe this system is a winner This system is also trading at the close of each day, and makes considerably fewer trades

Good luck
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf BACKTESTS.pdf   27 KB | 934 downloads
File Type: pdf IchiBackTests.pdf   24 KB | 758 downloads
  • #158
  • Jan 30, 2007 3:51pm Jan 30, 2007 3:51pm
Interesting results. What I do notice from the Ichimoku GBPUSD backtest is the average loss (-246). Some of us might not be able to handle such amount. Just looking at the last entry, it has a loss of -780.

But GBPJPY performance?!? That's pretty much un-believable....100% winning ratio for the last year...Wow!
  • #159
  • Jan 30, 2007 6:16pm Jan 30, 2007 6:16pm
Quoting wallym
Interesting results. What I do notice from the Ichimoku GBPUSD backtest is the average loss (-246). Some of us might not be able to handle such amount. Just looking at the last entry, it has a loss of -780.

But GBPJPY performance?!? That's pretty much un-believable....100% winning ratio for the last year...Wow!
Yes, I saw the risk there, but when compared with GBP/JPY, the losses were offset rather nicely. It wins enough for end of the year profit, but you're right, those losses could be devastating.

I think with the right risk strategy, one could make a hell of a living off of this.

Anyway, I have completed the method.. It is called the Kinko Method. Find it here
  • #160
  • Jan 30, 2007 8:34pm Jan 30, 2007 8:34pm
Quoting kharvell
Yes, I saw the risk there, but when compared with GBP/JPY, the losses were offset rather nicely. It wins enough for end of the year profit, but you're right, those losses could be devastating.

I think with the right risk strategy, one could make a hell of a living off of this.

Anyway, I have completed the method.. It is called the Kinko Method. Find it here
Hi Kevin,
thanks for sharing with us. The Kinko Method is not for me. Your daily pivot system is the one that I am very comfortable with, suits my needs and style of trading. I hope that you are not going to abandon this trading metod. Not because I am affraid to make my own trading decisions, but it was interesting to see what other traders are doing with this method. If you feel that the backtesting result from the daily pivot system wasn't good enough, may be we can add a filter to this system. Anyhow, thanks for all your help.
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