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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #65,081
  • May 10, 2008 5:56am May 10, 2008 5:56am
Another reason why cable is more prone to downward pressure is becaue BOE has exibited much more willingness to cut interest rates, and have done so rather consistently, although not as aggressively as the FED. ECB, on the other hand, hass repeatedly refused to cut rates. That makes cable the prime candidate for shorts against other majors. If the market sentiment is such, that moves the price! That's why I worry about longing cable.
Expected the unexpected
  • #65,082
  • May 10, 2008 5:56am May 10, 2008 5:56am
Quoting scyang
I looked at the chart again and I see the morning star configuration you guys are talking about. I am more convinced now from the technical standpoint that cable might be going up at least for a while, and possibly up to 1.97 or 1.98 level you guys mentioned. But fundamentally I don't feel cable is as strongly as euro. If you had been watching the price actions over the last several days, for the most part, cable had its own movements, not correlated to euro's movements. The UK's economy is much more resembling the US than any of the European nations. The UK is suffering from credit crisis and housing bubble, just lagging the US for a few months. That's the same reason why many of the analysts are calling to sell the pound against other majors. So I am not convinced that long term trend for the UK is up. But I think I am convinced that for the next couple of days to a week, cable might trend up rather than down.

I am sure I am less experienced than any of your guys on this forum. I would be very willing to listen and take your side of the view and learn.

Thank you all.
i agree with yur point of view..well put..
i meraly just saying we have to go up sometime, my plan this time to get out of this mess with the long .....goto what i think is a top get a confirmation and sell.....and ride the trend....i suspect 1.93 level after a visit to the top..1.98 will make me happy

the morning star at trendline support is a confluence to signal long is in process
  • #65,083
  • May 10, 2008 6:00am May 10, 2008 6:00am
Quoting nAVIN2007
i agree with yur point of view..well put..
i meraly just saying we have to go up sometime, my plan this time to get out of this mess with the long .....goto what i think is a top get a confirmation and sell.....and ride the trend....i suspect 1.93 level after a visit to the top..1.98 will make me happy
I do feel that is the safer thing to do, especially for a newbie like me, who is not very good at recognizing signals and reading charts. The key now is to know when cable has gone up high enough so we can short it. I was in a short position from Thursday through mid-day Friday. I was hoping it would go down below 1.9450. But resistence was rather strong. I got scared and chickened out at 80, and it was a good thing because the beast went up from there.
Expected the unexpected
  • #65,084
  • Edited 7:25am May 10, 2008 7:10am | Edited 7:25am
Quoting scyang
I do feel that is the safer thing to do, especially for a newbie like me, who is not very good at recognizing signals and reading charts. The key now is to know when cable has gone up high enough so we can short it. I was in a short position from Thursday through mid-day Friday. I was hoping it would go down below 1.9450. But resistence was rather strong. I got scared and chickened out at 80, and it was a good thing because the beast went up from there.
i know what u mean the trick is to realise anything can hapen and no matter what stick to the position size till u feal yur ready to make money ..that is when u have enough funds to increase yur lot size keeping the same risk..

the highr lot size the more emotional u get and less likely to ride winning trade, if yur increasing lot size u get emotional then and then u find definately a losing trade that will wipe out the wins ....

all physcological this game....once u know what yur doing ...

and is what makes it hard to conquer cause changing ones way of thinking is maybe one of the hardest challenges to life ....


below is my report for this month so far ..so u can see yourself the challenge i face
28 trades just 6 loses yet only just in profit...crazyness huh?i need to ride the winner and do what im doing with the lossers..tip would be great if any1 can give me a solution?
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  • #65,085
  • May 10, 2008 7:49am May 10, 2008 7:49am
Sorrry Bones.

JIM

Quoting Bones
Great analysis Jim as usual but I would like to see where the attached TL is coming from
Thanks in advance.
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  • #65,086
  • May 10, 2008 8:51am May 10, 2008 8:51am
Quoting Turveyd
I'm sorry but totally objective as I can be view here, I see nothing but after the fact only value and randomness from Fibo's.

ie.

at the 0% line, it didn't pick the bottom, you assigned 0% after the fact to the bottom, same on the high.

And even if you look at those levels on a M1 chart, there is no hesitation or anything to suggest there is anything in it what so ever.

Draw a few lines at random values you'll still see merit, well you likely have to believe in it which is the only reason you see value in your levels.
I am not going to argue about fibios they have proven enough that they work. The fact that I draw them after the fact or don’t know how to draw them properly only proves my inexperience and not that they don’t work

Dont use them if you dont like them, but the do work!
  • #65,087
  • May 10, 2008 10:04am May 10, 2008 10:04am
Quoting priceaction
I've just read, "Lessons from the Greatest Stock Traders of All Time" by John Boik, recommended by Jacko. You'll find Jacko's top three recommended reads listed here. The post is old but they remain his favourites today.

Two things are very apparent in the book that looks at five of the greatest traders ever; Livermore, Baruch, Darvas, Loeb, O'Neil. They are:

1) they all made colossal fortunes
2) they all got it wrong a lot of the time

The only one of these that all of us here can be sure about, is that we will all achieve number 2, without exception.

Those who achieve just a fraction of number 1 will be very wealthy people.

If anyone would like to do some reading about one of the great masters of all time, over the weekend, you can find books about Jesse Livermore freely available in PDF format here under the BOOKS section.

Rob

Quotes by Jesse Livermore



Hi Priceaction,

I just saw your post...and had a read of the quotes by Jesse Livermore. The one I liked the best was this one:

"It is literally true that millions come easier to a trader after he knows how to trade, than hundreds did in the days of his ignorance."

Having said that, sometimes the losses are more "interesting". See here:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=225


.
  • #65,088
  • May 10, 2008 12:36pm May 10, 2008 12:36pm
Let me show you guys what is in my plans in the next month or so. I have been waiting for this for a long time. I know the Geppy, or ( Hellevator ), as I like to call it, does not belong to this post. But, its close to being the carry trade of your dreams. Me, I'm waiting for this to form a double bottom on this weekly trend line. I will steal this long and keep my stop as short as possible and leave it there. You can see, it has just broken the main uptrend line as the first step and key in heading for this double bottom. It may be a month or 2 away, or it can happen this week, but it will be worth it. 6000+ Pips. This is my pet project.

Jim
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  • #65,089
  • May 10, 2008 12:49pm May 10, 2008 12:49pm
Quoting hard1head1
Let me show you guys what is in my plans in the next month or so. I have been waiting for this for a long time. I know the Geppy, or ( Hellevator ), as I like to call it, does not belong to this post. But, its close to being the carry trade of your dreams. Me, I'm waiting for this to form a double bottom on this weekly trend line. I will steal this long and keep my stop as short as possible and leave it there. You can see, it has just broken the main uptrend line as the first step and key in heading for this double bottom. It may be a month or 2 away, or it can happen this week, but it will be worth it. 6000+ Pips. This is my pet project.

Jim
THANK GOD ..yur talking about the jeppy..if it was cable id have a heart attack
  • #65,090
  • May 10, 2008 1:01pm May 10, 2008 1:01pm
Quoting hard1head1
Let me show you guys what is in my plans in the next month or so. I have been waiting for this for a long time. I know the Geppy, or ( Hellevator ), as I like to call it, does not belong to this post. But, its close to being the carry trade of your dreams. Me, I'm waiting for this to form a double bottom on this weekly trend line. I will steal this long and keep my stop as short as possible and leave it there. You can see, it has just broken the main uptrend line as the first step and key in heading for this double bottom. It may be a month or 2 away, or it can happen this week, but it will be worth it. 6000+ Pips. This is my pet project.

Jim
With all respect, but this post is for other thread.
  • #65,091
  • May 10, 2008 2:43pm May 10, 2008 2:43pm
Quoting nAVIN2007
below is my report for this month so far ..so u can see yourself the challenge i face
28 trades just 6 loses yet only just in profit...crazyness huh?i need to ride the winner and do what im doing with the lossers..tip would be great if any1 can give me a solution?

Okay, this is a tricky 1 as it's 1 me +98% of the people on here likely suffer with.

Issue 1, Is your system / trading style not able to get the bigger moves realistically, or are you cutting too soon ??

Solution ish 1, Go back mark on the charts all the places your traded and objectively work out MAX points after your exit, allowing for a realistic stop loss ( 20 normally for you ).
This will either give you more confidence to hold longer, or point out the flaw in your trading system.

* no errms and IF's be objective, if it hits your stop score it as a -SL *
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #65,092
  • May 10, 2008 2:47pm May 10, 2008 2:47pm
Quoting Runway Trade
I am not going to argue about fibios they have proven enough that they work. The fact that I draw them after the fact or don’t know how to draw them properly only proves my inexperience and not that they don’t work

Dont use them if you dont like them, but the do work!

I disagree on the DO WORK part strongly ( this isn't a go at you ), I've been pulling up Fibo lines for a week or 2 that you lot post and I'm sorry and I understand you all need something to believe in, but there is no more merit in Fibo's than a bunch of lines you drop onto the screen randomly.

Thats not to say there isn't a slight merit in a bunch of randomly placed lines as it provides something to trade off and make entrys, got to be in it to win it after all.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #65,093
  • May 10, 2008 5:06pm May 10, 2008 5:06pm
I understand, but it is the weekend and I thought I would show it. Besides, I use this in part of my plan to trade the Cable, so bury it, please. You did not have to read it.

Quoting Carrera
With all respect, but this post is for other thread.
  • #65,094
  • May 10, 2008 5:39pm May 10, 2008 5:39pm
Don't make the same mistake some made last week, remember, you have a Daily trendline at around 9600. And there is a 1 Hr trendine price is hitting right now. I am thinking of short and will look for an entry either way on the 5 or 15.

Jim


Quoting scyang
I looked at the chart again and I see the morning star configuration you guys are talking about. I am more convinced now from the technical standpoint that cable might be going up at least for a while, and possibly up to 1.97 or 1.98 level you guys mentioned. But fundamentally I don't feel cable is as strongly as euro. If you had been watching the price actions over the last several days, for the most part, cable had its own movements, not correlated to euro's movements. The UK's economy is much more resembling the US than any of the European nations. The UK is suffering from credit crisis and housing bubble, just lagging the US for a few months. That's the same reason why many of the analysts are calling to sell the pound against other majors. So I am not convinced that long term trend for the UK is up. But I think I am convinced that for the next couple of days to a week, cable might trend up rather than down.

I am sure I am less experienced than any of your guys on this forum. I would be very willing to listen and take your side of the view and learn.

Thank you all.
  • #65,095
  • May 10, 2008 5:48pm May 10, 2008 5:48pm
Quoting hard1head1
Don't make the same mistake some made last week, remember, you have a Daily trendline at around 9600. And there is a 1 Hr trendine price is hitting right now. I am thinking of short and will look for an entry either way on the 5 or 15.

Jim
So you don't believe cable has life left in it to bounce at all. Thanks for the heads up. I was originally thinking the puppy has room to go further down. Just didn't know how far up it will climb before it drops again. Sorry, what do you mean by either way on the 5 or 15?
Expected the unexpected
  • #65,096
  • May 11, 2008 5:07am May 11, 2008 5:07am
Quoting hard1head1
Just email me and I will send out an email about when and where.
i already send you ...............

Btw, i was worried cable will sink hard............
I Deeply Love My Virtual Life In Virtual World , RLC
  • #65,097
  • May 11, 2008 5:15am May 11, 2008 5:15am
Trend is down, that morning star don't hold much weight with me. I am thinking retracement only as the market thinned out on Friday and nothing else. First chart is a 4 Hr and you can see the pair is trending down. Keep in mind the color of trendlines. 1 Hr is blue, 4 Hr is red and daily is magenta. The morning star was a retracement from when the price hit the 3, 4 hr trend lines, ( red dotted ). It has now retraced to the 1 hr trendline, ( blue dotted ) which by the way is 61.8 % fib level of the Friday move down. Keep in mind 1 hr trendlines are minor in the way I trade, but you have to respect them, especially when they are accompanied with fib levels. Me, I think we bounce short here, but price will probably gap and screw that all up. The most important thing here for me is the cross of the 4 hr and the daily trendline at the 9600 level. THIS is why I believe we are going to continue short. Ideal situation for me here at the open is a gap up to around 9600 and it will be a immediate short.

Quoting scyang
So you don't believe cable has life left in it to bounce at all. Thanks for the heads to up. I was originally thinking the puppy has room to go further down. Just didn't know how far up it will climb before it drops again. Sorry, what do you mean by either way on the 5 or 15?
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  • #65,098
  • May 11, 2008 5:21am May 11, 2008 5:21am
Make sure your email is there and not just a private message, cause I can't return a PM thru email.

Jim

Quoting notme32
i already send you ...............

Btw, i was worried cable will sink hard............
  • #65,099
  • Edited 7:13am May 11, 2008 6:45am | Edited 7:13am
i dunno i must say im getting nervous about my open position..i just wanna break even now .....i have been reading articals and charist are actually predicting in may 1.8 level are possible to be seen ...i dont get it ...but 1.93 seems to just the start.

sentiment is bearish which i think is nuts but what can u do if its bearish it bearish ..why there a morning star right on the bottom of trendline and no move up...technically we supposed to go up so i guess this is one to watch...

i guess cause of the lack of dicussion this week i take people basically confused and really not sure on the direction?

ok this is copy and pasted from somewhere:

Pound Price Action Inching Lower, Hedge Offers Entry

The Pound has been gradually declining against the US dollar along a well-defined downward-sloping channel since mid-March. The latest price action sees the pair at the bottom of this channel, with the coming days sure to bring volatility as the Bank of England readies an interest rate announcement. The decision will be closely watched as policy makers are torn between offering monetary stimulus to contain fallout from the floundering UK housing market and battling commodities-fueled inflationary pressure. Shorts face near-certain volatility coupled with positioning at a major technical support level. This could well bring an up-swing to the channel top before further downside resumes.
Hedging Strategy

Currency Pair: GBPUSD
Long Term Bias: Bearish
Long Term Position: Holding Short
Short Term Bias: Bullish
Short Term Position: Long above 1.9490, Target 1.9897, Stop-Loss at 1.9416
  • #65,100
  • May 11, 2008 7:18am May 11, 2008 7:18am
Nav, you got to relax. Dont read the articles if they confuse you. Sometimes even the best are wrong. Lets talk about it when the market opens, there is nothing you can do about your open position since you can't close until 5 minutes after the open. I personally do not leave trades on over the weekend, especially the Cable because of the large gaps it produces, unless of course it is in a nice daily trend. Console your self in the fact that 90% of the time gaps fill. But sometimes we have to learn when to cut our losses. I use the following rules for holding weekend positions. See charts below and you can see how holding a long position would not be a good idea, however, its not a lead pips synch that it won't go long, just not likely.

Jim

Quoting nAVIN2007
i dunno i must say im getting nervous about my open position..i just wanna break even now .....i have been reading articals and charist are actually predicting in may 1.8 level are possible to be seen ...i dont get it ...but 1.93 seems to just the start.

sentiment is bearish which i think is nuts but what can u do if its bearish it bearish ..why there a morning star right on the bottom of trendline and no move up...technically we supposed to go up so i guess this is one to watch...

i guess cause of the lack of dicussion this week i take people basically confused and really not sure on the direction?
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