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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #64,961
  • May 9, 2008 6:02am May 9, 2008 6:02am
Quoting TraderJR
Amazing, you were right, it didn't simply keep on falling but retraced/reversed at 19479. Why did you expect it to do this?
Because Jim is good at reading charts.

It's a bit like driving, you get better with practice
The quality of your life is brought about by the quality of your thinking.
  • #64,962
  • May 9, 2008 6:07am May 9, 2008 6:07am
Quoting hard1head1
Yesterday when we saw those tweezertops on the 4 Hr, ( Chart #1 ) you could see on the daily, ( Chart #2 ), why they were formed. It was because the price was testing the up trend line on the daily. That is when I knew it was probably going to go short. When the 4 Hr bangs on the daily trendline twice and can't get it done, it's usually all over but the shouting. I hope this explains it enough for the newby's, guys, and I am only trying to help.

Jim
For short term and few pips it is nice to go short at that time, but long term is up, when that will be is the question, it failed to go up at London opening session. but maybe by monday, but its lower end is congested
anyway making prediction difficult.
  • #64,963
  • May 9, 2008 6:13am May 9, 2008 6:13am
Quote
Amazing, you were right, it didn't simply keep on falling but retraced/reversed at 19479. Why did you expect it to do this?

Fib retracement. Fib the previous swing high and swing low and the fib extension meets up there perfectly. I think it's going to blow thru there tho, yesterday was an inside day. 1.9450 looks like a good number at first glance.
  • #64,964
  • May 9, 2008 6:14am May 9, 2008 6:14am
I've just read, "Lessons from the Greatest Stock Traders of All Time" by John Boik, recommended by Jacko. You'll find Jacko's top three recommended reads listed here. The post is old but they remain his favourites today.

Two things are very apparent in the book that looks at five of the greatest traders ever; Livermore, Baruch, Darvas, Loeb, O'Neil. They are:

1) they all made colossal fortunes
2) they all got it wrong a lot of the time

The only one of these that all of us here can be sure about, is that we will all achieve number 2, without exception.

Those who achieve just a fraction of number 1 will be very wealthy people.

If anyone would like to do some reading about one of the great masters of all time, over the weekend, you can find books about Jesse Livermore freely available in PDF format here under the BOOKS section.

Rob

Quotes by Jesse Livermore
  • #64,965
  • May 9, 2008 6:17am May 9, 2008 6:17am
Quoting fxbroker
For short term and few pips it is nice to go short at that time, but long term is up, when that will be is the question, it failed to go up at London opening session. but maybe by monday, but its lower end is congested
anyway making prediction difficult.
im looking for a dip to buy from but it just doesnt seem to want to reverse especially if US trade balance comes in better than expected.
"what doesn't bankrupt me, makes me stronger" modern nietzche
  • #64,966
  • May 9, 2008 6:31am May 9, 2008 6:31am
Quoting hornet
Because Jim is good at reading charts.

It's a bit like driving, you get better with practice
Such platitudes sound good but technical specifics please ...
Darkness lies one inch ahead..
  • #64,967
  • May 9, 2008 6:34am May 9, 2008 6:34am
Quoting salah k.
im looking for a dip to buy from but it just doesnt seem to want to reverse especially if US trade balance comes in better than expected.
Market is at bottom of cycle it started in january. All time frames are at end start of bullish cycle it started in january except perhaps 4hrly and possibilities of daily, week, Monthly going to oversold zones for the remainder of the year. Is this possible for all frames to remain in over-sold zone?.........that is 1million dollar tip

A break below this level like 200 pips extra move down will change the picture of whether the year will be bearish. For now anything can happen.

Another question is coming data significant enough to make market tumble today? I dunno
  • #64,968
  • May 9, 2008 6:34am May 9, 2008 6:34am
Quoting priceaction
I've just read, "Lessons from the Greatest Stock Traders of All Time" by John Boik, recommended by Jacko.

Two things are very apparent in the book that looks at five of the greatest traders ever; Livermore, Baruch, Darvas, Loeb, O'Neil. They are:

1) they all made colossal fortunes
2) they all got it wrong a lot of the time
That being the case, what sort of balance between luck and skill+hard work did each experience?
Darkness lies one inch ahead..
  • #64,969
  • May 9, 2008 6:37am May 9, 2008 6:37am
Cable is not moving. Any technical reasons for that? Thought after breaking 1.95, it would sail downward consistently.
Expected the unexpected
  • #64,970
  • May 9, 2008 6:39am May 9, 2008 6:39am
Quoting TraderJR
Such platitudes sound good but technical specifics please ...
What techinicals ? The fact that when it breaks a support it's bound to retrace a little ? The fact that you can use FIBOs on last swings to determine eventual turnaround points ?

Or maybe the fact that you need rules, and only trade by them ?

Reading a chart takes a lot of time and practice. Some things cannot be explained, you just learn to recognise them when they happen.

I've been trying to go short all day but, because of my rules, I sat on the sidelines. Been bearish since before I had a shower this morning, no entry points for me.
The quality of your life is brought about by the quality of your thinking.
  • #64,971
  • May 9, 2008 6:45am May 9, 2008 6:45am
Quoting TraderJR
Such platitudes sound good but technical specifics please ...
Like I said, a bit like driving....

I can tell you to press the clutch before dropping a gear, to turn the steering wheel if you want to go around a corner, to be careful if hitting the brakes while in a corner.....but I can't give you the sensibility on how to do those things. That is just down to your own practice and experience.

And then if you become a racing driver or a sunday driver...up to you.
The quality of your life is brought about by the quality of your thinking.
  • #64,972
  • May 9, 2008 6:47am May 9, 2008 6:47am
I see room to about 1.9435
The quality of your life is brought about by the quality of your thinking.
  • #64,973
  • May 9, 2008 6:48am May 9, 2008 6:48am
Im still thinking long and i know basically i stuffed it up, all because fundamentally i cant understand how things for UK is worse than in america

we in a downtrend it retraced right to the 38%, was perfect to short yet im looking look....i have 2 longs now and im holding on as it just a question of time b4 this moves up

how low u guys reckon this likely to go b4 up? ...im thinking 1.9422
  • #64,974
  • May 9, 2008 6:55am May 9, 2008 6:55am
i think that most important support that held 3 times is i the 9300 area.
"what doesn't bankrupt me, makes me stronger" modern nietzche
  • #64,975
  • May 9, 2008 6:57am May 9, 2008 6:57am
I think a move down to 1.90 is open and clear.
  • #64,976
  • May 9, 2008 7:00am May 9, 2008 7:00am
I had to close my long last night @ +11 because of a few personal issues that took me away from work.. Ohwell guess that worked out. Regarding today, I think im on the sidelines 1) its friday 2) I'm having trouble getting into a short at this level. I'll be just watching till Monday...
USD Est Non Mortuus
  • #64,977
  • May 9, 2008 7:03am May 9, 2008 7:03am
Quoting nAVIN2007
Im still thinking long and i know basically i stuffed it up, all because fundamentally i cant understand how things for UK is worse than in america

we in a downtrend it retraced right to the 38%, was perfect to short yet im looking look....i have 2 longs now and im holding on as it just a question of time b4 this moves up

how low u guys reckon this likely to go b4 up? ...im thinking 1.9422
I am still with you on the longs. Hedged my longs at 1.9495. Now I must just pick the bottom right! I'll start watching at 1.9430. Need to get this one right
  • #64,978
  • May 9, 2008 7:07am May 9, 2008 7:07am
Just had to put up with the daily rat race to take my little girl to school. I have learned from one of the best and I want to share with anyone who wants to learn. You can throw away all those fancy indicators, they are no good because they lag. I dont use them. Maybe a combination of them will do some good, but to me, they are a joke. The single and most powerful tool in trading are simple trendlines, moving averages and the ability to use them on charts with differant time frames. I would be willing to explain farther on the weekends for those who want to know more, or if you want me to turn you on to the guy who taught me, you will have to email me because I do not support spam.
  • #64,979
  • May 9, 2008 7:07am May 9, 2008 7:07am
Closed half my short at 19492, because of price hesitancy in 19480-19510, then of course almost immediately price moved down through 19479..

Should be through 1.95 now, so how far down?

1.9436 (138 % D1 fib extension + blue downtrend line) or 19425 if you're game, should be likely exits but could it go much further down, say to 1.936/1.933?
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Darkness lies one inch ahead..
  • #64,980
  • May 9, 2008 7:13am May 9, 2008 7:13am
Here are some targets off the daily chart.

Jim
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