Ahh i see now. have to look on 4h to see it. thank you yen for your 2 pips worth. take care.
- | Joined Dec 2006 | Status: AKA "Yen" | 1,654 Posts
[quote=kharvell;198219]Goooood morning everyone
Thanks for the website Yen! I will look it over later and see if maybe there's a better combination. Which pairs have you decided to use?
Hi Kevin,
I'm going to stick with once you suggested for now. I am going to run a demo on EUR/AUD. According to the info I was able to find, it has virtually no correlation with GBP/USD, and not much with the other pairs you suggest either.
The spread is a little higher than I would normally like, but when you're trading daily candles that becomes less of a factor. Volatility is about the same as GBP/USD. (the average daily range on the pair is almost exactly the same over the last 100, 200 & 300-day periods).
I'll let you know how the demo goes.
/
Thanks for the website Yen! I will look it over later and see if maybe there's a better combination. Which pairs have you decided to use?
Hi Kevin,
I'm going to stick with once you suggested for now. I am going to run a demo on EUR/AUD. According to the info I was able to find, it has virtually no correlation with GBP/USD, and not much with the other pairs you suggest either.
The spread is a little higher than I would normally like, but when you're trading daily candles that becomes less of a factor. Volatility is about the same as GBP/USD. (the average daily range on the pair is almost exactly the same over the last 100, 200 & 300-day periods).
I'll let you know how the demo goes.
/ Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
Alright then,
I have decided to make a more "newbie" friendly version. There are a few changes to the original, but mainly the (word)/(important info) ratio will be greatly reduced.
The Method
- Set up a Daily chart with candlesticks. Also, set an RSI(10).
- Look for Pivot Points. What are Pivot Points? Please see the document below.
- Suppose we have a Low Pivot Point, thus creating a minimum. Look at the high of the minimum candle. Write this number down.
- Add the spread to this number. If you do not know what spread is, please add 3 pips. This is your "magic number". Why is it magical? Because when it is surpassed you must look at the scenarios below to see if you buy.
The Scenarios
NOTE: These are BUY scenarios for when a Low Pivot has just occurred and the "magic number" has been surpassed.
- RSI > 50. Slope is up = BUY
- RSI > 40 AND JUST CAME from 30. Slope is up = BUY
- Otherwise, don't do anything.
NOTE: These are SELL scenarios for when a High Pivot has just occurred and the "magic number" has been surpassed.
- RSI < 50. Slope is down = SELL
- RSI < 60 AND JUST CAME from 70. Slope is down = SELL
- Otherwise, don't do anything.
NOTE: IF the RSI has not confirmed in more than 3 days from the pivot, do not act upon the trade.
A Note about Pivot Points
Pivot Points alternate between High Pivots and Low Pivots. In other words, you can't have 2 High Pivots or 2 Low Pivots in a row. When a LOW pivot point appears like the one featured below, you will then go into HIGH pivot mode where you are watching for a high pivot. This entails looking at the high values from then on. When you find the high values are no longer increasing, this should be a red flag that it could POTENTIALLY be a high pivot. You know it is a High Pivot when and if the magic number is surpassed. If it is indeed a high pivot, then you go into LOW pivot mode, where you look at the lows using the same process.
Stop Loss
NOTE: I do not use Take Profits. Please do not ask me what my Take Profit is.
- Suppose you have just bought. Your initial S/L will be at the recent Low Pivot minimum, OR 100 pips, whichever is lower. The same is true for sell positions just using the High Pivot maximum
- Suppose now that the BUY position you have entered is moving in your favor(UP). Move the stop loss to the low of each completed day.
- Suppose now that the SELL position you have entered is moving in your favor(DOWN). Move the stop loss to the high of each completed day.
An Example Below:
- Red lines are the High and Low Pivots.
- Yellow Lines are the "magic numbers"
- Purple lines are me checking the RSI and scenarios to see if it is a good trade.
- And the 2 light blue lines are trades that qualified.
When to Increase Your Position
If you are in a long trade and the RSI's slope increases in magnitude, buy more. This means steeper slope = buy more.
The same is true for a sell trade.
Best Time of the Day to Trade
The end of the day. For me this is 8-10PM CST.
Trade at your own risk. I do not take responsibility for your losses. And most importantly GOOD LUCK!
Thank you in advance for your help.
Jeff http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon5.gif
- | Joined Dec 2006 | Status: AKA "Yen" | 1,654 Posts
For anyone interested in combining the Daily Pivot System with chart patterns & technicals, you might want to look at the AUD/USD.
It's well into a trade per Kevin's system, plus it has just broken through the right neckline of a classic head & shoulders pattern. A third confirmation is the break of some pretty solid support that held for almost 2 months.
If you take a look at fibonaccis, it could be a 200+ pip trade.
Or, with all that said, I could be completely wrong: If you predict the market will be unpredictable, you'll usually be right!
:
It's well into a trade per Kevin's system, plus it has just broken through the right neckline of a classic head & shoulders pattern. A third confirmation is the break of some pretty solid support that held for almost 2 months.
If you take a look at fibonaccis, it could be a 200+ pip trade.
Or, with all that said, I could be completely wrong: If you predict the market will be unpredictable, you'll usually be right!
:
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
- Joined Dec 2006 | Status: call me Kevin | 1,263 Posts
Helllloo Everyone,
Today was a good day! Hopefully your day is going nicely as well(non-forex related)!
[quote=yen44x;198424]
Hey there Yen,
EUR/AUD sounds good. DO let me know how the demo goes
Thanks!
Hi there Jeff,
Welcome to Forex Factory! There are a lot of good resources here so be sure to check them all out!
In regards to your question. Today it would be best to wait until towards the end of the day until we sell GBP/USD. I say this because today's candle is very weak as far as movement. It appears that sellers and buyers are "duking it out" and no one is really winning yet. If at the end of the day, the sellers end up winning(all the signals confirm) I will certainly enter the trade. Had today been another 100 pips down, I would say SELL SELL SELL.
Hope this helps and good luck!
Kevin
You point out some good things here Yen! That head and shoulders formation does look rather nice..
Ok then, allow me to finish my SELL entry for USD/JPY with an explanation as to why I did it.
Short USD/JPY
Date: Jan 25th 2007 9:21 AM CST
Price: 120.99
S/L: 121.8
Reason:
A High Pivot occurs on January 23rd. It's high is ~121.8 and it's low is ~121.11. According to my system, I should have sold at the end of Jan 24th because the magic number of 121.14 was passed and the RSI was registering at ~54.9 just having come from 70. I overlooked this yesterday evening and did not enter the trade.
By all accounts I should have been in this trade. Thankfully, Tim pointed it out that I should be, and I saw today's reversal as an opportunity to avoid the loss I would have had. What I mean by this is that I would have sold at Jan 24th's close of 120.53 and today I would be down a fairly significant amount of pips. Assuming I would have been right, I saw it as a good opportunity to join the trade I should be in without the immediate losses. I hope this makes sense. As I am rereading it I find it more confusing than anything, but it was my thought process, and I can't think of another way to put it to you
As I say above, GBP/USD will be a short most likely, but I'm waiting for a decent close tonight.
AUD/JPY is on fire! And I know currencies can't talk or listen or anything, but I just want to tell USD/CHF to "Quit playing games with my heart":
My trades:
Short AUD/JPY @ 95.12 S/L 95.37 = 139 pips
Short USD/CHF @ 1.2423 S/L 1.2514 = - 62 pips
Short USD/JPY @ 120.99 S/L 121.80 = -25 pips
Net Unrealized pips = 52 pips
PS Thanks for the good reviews
Today was a good day! Hopefully your day is going nicely as well(non-forex related)!
[quote=yen44x;198424]
Goooood morning everyone
Thanks for the website Yen! I will look it over later and see if maybe there's a better combination. Which pairs have you decided to use?
Hi Kevin,
I'm going to stick with once you suggested for now. I am going to run a demo on EUR/AUD. According to the info I was able to find, it has virtually no correlation with GBP/USD, and not much with the other pairs you suggest either.
The spread is a little higher than I would normally like, but when you're trading daily candles that becomes less of a factor. Volatility is about the same as GBP/USD. (the average daily range on the pair is almost exactly the same over the last 100, 200 & 300-day periods).
I'll let you know how the demo goes.
EUR/AUD sounds good. DO let me know how the demo goes
Thanks!
Thank you for your contribution to this forum. I am just learning forex, and this technique. I am looking at the GBP/USD pair in OANDA. It looks like there is a High Pivot point that occured on 1/23/07, when it went below 1.9774 and the RSI < 60 AND JUST CAME from 70 and Slope was down at the close of 1/23/07. Looks like we should be shorting, correct? My question is, when do we enter a trade? At that first moment during the day that the buy or sell conditions are met, or after the market close, or at the opening of the next day? What if at the time we eneter the trade the RSI is now headed up, do we still short the position?
Thank you in advance for your help.
Jeff
Hi there Jeff,
Welcome to Forex Factory! There are a lot of good resources here so be sure to check them all out!
In regards to your question. Today it would be best to wait until towards the end of the day until we sell GBP/USD. I say this because today's candle is very weak as far as movement. It appears that sellers and buyers are "duking it out" and no one is really winning yet. If at the end of the day, the sellers end up winning(all the signals confirm) I will certainly enter the trade. Had today been another 100 pips down, I would say SELL SELL SELL.
Hope this helps and good luck!
Kevin
For anyone interested in combining the Daily Pivot System with chart patterns & technicals, you might want to look at the AUD/USD.
It's well into a trade per Kevin's system, plus it has just broken through the right neckline of a classic head & shoulders pattern. A third confirmation is the break of some pretty solid support that held for almost 2 months.
If you take a look at fibonaccis, it could be a 200+ pip trade.
Or, with all that said, I could be completely wrong: If you predict the market will be unpredictable, you'll usually be right!
You point out some good things here Yen! That head and shoulders formation does look rather nice..
Ok then, allow me to finish my SELL entry for USD/JPY with an explanation as to why I did it.
Short USD/JPY
Date: Jan 25th 2007 9:21 AM CST
Price: 120.99
S/L: 121.8
Reason:
A High Pivot occurs on January 23rd. It's high is ~121.8 and it's low is ~121.11. According to my system, I should have sold at the end of Jan 24th because the magic number of 121.14 was passed and the RSI was registering at ~54.9 just having come from 70. I overlooked this yesterday evening and did not enter the trade.
By all accounts I should have been in this trade. Thankfully, Tim pointed it out that I should be, and I saw today's reversal as an opportunity to avoid the loss I would have had. What I mean by this is that I would have sold at Jan 24th's close of 120.53 and today I would be down a fairly significant amount of pips. Assuming I would have been right, I saw it as a good opportunity to join the trade I should be in without the immediate losses. I hope this makes sense. As I am rereading it I find it more confusing than anything, but it was my thought process, and I can't think of another way to put it to you
As I say above, GBP/USD will be a short most likely, but I'm waiting for a decent close tonight.
AUD/JPY is on fire! And I know currencies can't talk or listen or anything, but I just want to tell USD/CHF to "Quit playing games with my heart"
: My trades:
Short AUD/JPY @ 95.12 S/L 95.37 = 139 pips
Short USD/CHF @ 1.2423 S/L 1.2514 = - 62 pips
Short USD/JPY @ 120.99 S/L 121.80 = -25 pips
Net Unrealized pips = 52 pips
PS Thanks for the good reviews
- Joined Dec 2006 | Status: call me Kevin | 1,263 Posts
My USD/JPY trade is getting creamed, too now!
Looks like a good BUY set up for tonight/tomorrow.
BUY ORDER USD/JPY
Date/Time: Jan 25th, 2007/MAYBE Jan 26th, 2007 Time: Undetermined
Price: 121.66
S/L: 120.66
Reason:
Pretty much the same logic behind my AUD/JPY trade. Today has created a new low in "Pivot Low mode", and a breach of today's high of 121.66 indicates Jan 25th is DEFINITELY a low pivot. RSI is above 50 and sloping up = BUY.
I'm going to hold off on the GBP/USD for now because it is unconvincingly at 50.
ALSO, to AUD/JPY holders, I have moved my stop to 94.28(Jan 25th's high)
Good luck!
Kevin
Looks like a good BUY set up for tonight/tomorrow.
BUY ORDER USD/JPY
Date/Time: Jan 25th, 2007/MAYBE Jan 26th, 2007 Time: Undetermined
Price: 121.66
S/L: 120.66
Reason:
Pretty much the same logic behind my AUD/JPY trade. Today has created a new low in "Pivot Low mode", and a breach of today's high of 121.66 indicates Jan 25th is DEFINITELY a low pivot. RSI is above 50 and sloping up = BUY.
I'm going to hold off on the GBP/USD for now because it is unconvincingly at 50.
ALSO, to AUD/JPY holders, I have moved my stop to 94.28(Jan 25th's high)
Good luck!
Kevin
Hi Kevin and everyone else here
I just started to look in to this thread and I must say, Yen and Kevin are really good people. And so is everyone else here. I like the positivity that is in the posts. Everyone is keen on helping each other learn (and in the process maybe get rich!!)
I'm quite new to pivots and will be looking forward to learning alot about it here from everyone.
Cheers
Netrix
I just started to look in to this thread and I must say, Yen and Kevin are really good people. And so is everyone else here. I like the positivity that is in the posts. Everyone is keen on helping each other learn (and in the process maybe get rich!!)
I'm quite new to pivots and will be looking forward to learning alot about it here from everyone.
Cheers
Netrix
Hi Kevin,
I have metatrader charts. My charts are 6 hrs. ahead of EST. They must be set on euro time or something, not sure. SO, my charts split into another candle before yours does. Can't tell if its a good thing yet. It must have been on the yen trade, cause if you saw the 1/24 to 1/25, you wouldn't have traded it. The close of my red candle on the 24th was 121.04 and the rsi was near 65. Do you look at the rsi on the daily chart on the pivot candle or the one next to it? The one after the high pivot on mine, for the rsi was at 67.2.
Please HELP. 
So, i guess it might be a good thing due to me seeing the day 6 hrs. ahead of you. Or, it just could be this one case. Let me know. Maybe it might help us all out in the long run. This is why i told you that i saw the swissy heading up again. Ok, thank you for your time and sharing. 
I have metatrader charts. My charts are 6 hrs. ahead of EST. They must be set on euro time or something, not sure. SO, my charts split into another candle before yours does. Can't tell if its a good thing yet. It must have been on the yen trade, cause if you saw the 1/24 to 1/25, you wouldn't have traded it. The close of my red candle on the 24th was 121.04 and the rsi was near 65. Do you look at the rsi on the daily chart on the pivot candle or the one next to it? The one after the high pivot on mine, for the rsi was at 67.2.
Please HELP. So, i guess it might be a good thing due to me seeing the day 6 hrs. ahead of you. Or, it just could be this one case. Let me know. Maybe it might help us all out in the long run. This is why i told you that i saw the swissy heading up again. Ok, thank you for your time and sharing. - Joined Dec 2006 | Status: call me Kevin | 1,263 Posts
Good Morning! Hopefully everyone's forex accounts look better than mine! I took a whopping on the last 2 trades, but I'm not too worried about it..
Hello Netrix,
Thanks for the complements! I must agree with you that I like where this thread has gone, and also where it is headed! It has turned from something that was originally just my method into a discussion of all the pairs and various indicators. Anyway, welcome, and thanks!
Now, This may be the wrong thread to ask these questions.. While I know that I would love to help you, personally, I don't use Pivot lines or Fib lines in my TA. I prefer just looking at price action. Although there might be some who frequent my thread that would be able to answer your question! Sorry I'm not more help to ya
Hmmm.. Good job, broc, you have convinced me to use metatrader! I think that since it seems to be the popular platform here, I will use it for both our conveniences. Also, I think you're right about being kept out of some maybe bad trades because it is more in sync with market openings and closings than OANDA which uses MY local time.
Glad to hear you are having success! Personally, I lost this week. I have thought about taking profits, but to no avail. I would rather be in a 600 pip trade from start to finish, not having to worry about it, than come up with more rules for take profits. Besides, I don't know if you have read any of the "Market Wizards" books, but they will ALL tell you to let profits run.
The shadows are what you are looking at. Those are the lows each day, and we just want to see how the price was reacting everyday.
Good luck,
Kevin
Good observation! Have you entered short yet? I believe I would have!
Alright, to the nitty gritty..
Like I have said twice, I have LOST
If you want specifics:
Short USD/CHF @ 1.2423 STOPPED OUT 1.2514 = - 91 pips
Short USD/JPY @ 120.99 S/L 121.66 = -67 pips
Total Realized pips this week = -69 + 45 + 69 + 39 - 91 - 67 = -74 pips
No worries though.
My USD/JPY order was filled: See previous post
BUY USD/CHF
Date/Time: Jan 26th @ 8:43 AM CST
Price: 1.2548
S/L: 1.2448
Reason:
A low pivot occurred on Jan 23rd with a low of 1.2375 and a high of 1.2514. It took a couple of days to break the magic number, but was finally broken today(Jan 26th) with a convincingly green bar. RSI is well above 50 and sloping up = BUY
And according to Meta trader, I should have been short GBP/USD a looong time ago
My trades:
Short AUD/JPY @ 95.12 S/L 93.91 = 120 pips
Long USD/CHF @ 1.2548 S/L 1.2448 = 5 pips
Long USD/JPY @ 121.66 S/L 120.66 = -19 pips
Net UnRealized pips: 106.
PS I MetaTrader is pretty sweet
One question though, How to remove weekend data?
Hi Kevin and everyone else here
I just started to look in to this thread and I must say, Yen and Kevin are really good people. And so is everyone else here. I like the positivity that is in the posts. Everyone is keen on helping each other learn (and in the process maybe get rich!!)
I'm quite new to pivots and will be looking forward to learning alot about it here from everyone.
Cheers
Netrix
Thanks for the complements! I must agree with you that I like where this thread has gone, and also where it is headed! It has turned from something that was originally just my method into a discussion of all the pairs and various indicators. Anyway, welcome, and thanks!
Hi
I'm attaching my MT4 chart layout, to get some help.
I have attached a BB to the RSI, used some MA cross over indicators (5EMA/9SMA).
It seems to me that the Daily pivot indicator moves itself daily and the pivot for 1/23 has become the R3. If I did a Fib Retracement, price of around 1.9668 (Pivot Point) was actually at Fib Resistance. Please help me see if its correct. (Just started learning technical analysis).
Thanks many
Netrix
Now, This may be the wrong thread to ask these questions.. While I know that I would love to help you, personally, I don't use Pivot lines or Fib lines in my TA. I prefer just looking at price action. Although there might be some who frequent my thread that would be able to answer your question! Sorry I'm not more help to ya
Hi Kevin,
I have metatrader charts. My charts are 6 hrs. ahead of EST. They must be set on euro time or something, not sure. SO, my charts split into another candle before yours does. Can't tell if its a good thing yet. It must have been on the yen trade, cause if you saw the 1/24 to 1/25, you wouldn't have traded it. The close of my red candle on the 24th was 121.04 and the rsi was near 65. Do you look at the rsi on the daily chart on the pivot candle or the one next to it? The one after the high pivot on mine, for the rsi was at 67.2. Please HELP. So, i guess it might be a good thing due to me seeing the day 6 hrs. ahead of you. Or, it just could be this one case. Let me know. Maybe it might help us all out in the long run. This is why i told you that i saw the swissy heading up again. Ok, thank you for your time and sharing.
Hmmm.. Good job, broc, you have convinced me to use metatrader!
I think that since it seems to be the popular platform here, I will use it for both our conveniences. Also, I think you're right about being kept out of some maybe bad trades because it is more in sync with market openings and closings than OANDA which uses MY local time.I'm having success with your strategy on my first two trades at present,trading the GBP/USD (+ 72) and the EUR/USD (+22).I use Interbank FX,s platform so I'm making my entries off the open and close of their daily candles which is 7:00 pm EST. Just a couple quick questions. Have you or anyone done any back tests using say a 100 or 150TP and maybe reentering a trade if next candle confirms? I know you like to let your profits run which may be the best approach. Also, say your in a trade(selling) so your looking for lower lows on each candle. Does a candle shadow at the close qualify as a lower low or does the candle body have to be past the low at the close of the candle? Thanks again for a promising trading strategy.
Glad to hear you are having success! Personally, I lost this week. I have thought about taking profits, but to no avail. I would rather be in a 600 pip trade from start to finish, not having to worry about it, than come up with more rules for take profits. Besides, I don't know if you have read any of the "Market Wizards" books, but they will ALL tell you to let profits run.
The shadows are what you are looking at. Those are the lows each day, and we just want to see how the price was reacting everyday.
Good luck,
Kevin
Also, GBPCHF is forming a low pivot (yesterday's candle 1/25) if today's candle goes past yesterday's high of 2.4568 (+ spread). So watch out!!
Good observation! Have you entered short yet? I believe I would have!
Alright, to the nitty gritty..
Like I have said twice, I have LOST
If you want specifics:
Short USD/CHF @ 1.2423 STOPPED OUT 1.2514 = - 91 pips
Short USD/JPY @ 120.99 S/L 121.66 = -67 pips
Total Realized pips this week = -69 + 45 + 69 + 39 - 91 - 67 = -74 pips
No worries though.
My USD/JPY order was filled: See previous post
BUY USD/CHF
Date/Time: Jan 26th @ 8:43 AM CST
Price: 1.2548
S/L: 1.2448
Reason:
A low pivot occurred on Jan 23rd with a low of 1.2375 and a high of 1.2514. It took a couple of days to break the magic number, but was finally broken today(Jan 26th) with a convincingly green bar. RSI is well above 50 and sloping up = BUY
And according to Meta trader, I should have been short GBP/USD a looong time ago
My trades:
Short AUD/JPY @ 95.12 S/L 93.91 = 120 pips
Long USD/CHF @ 1.2548 S/L 1.2448 = 5 pips
Long USD/JPY @ 121.66 S/L 120.66 = -19 pips
Net UnRealized pips: 106.
PS I MetaTrader is pretty sweet
One question though, How to remove weekend data?
This might be off-topic, but since you mentioned and because for any system you want to work with you need to have the GOOD TOOL... I have the question about MetaTrader:
Is that a software application that you install and can use as chart analysis tool, backtesting, and of course for real-time accurate rates? Or is it only possible to use it through some broker?
I'm asking that because I still want to keep Oanda as my broker, but I notice how much I'm missing by not having so powerfull charting tool everyone here is talking about.
Also, does MT4 provide backtesting tools, any programming (automating) interface? If yes, how far the data goes and in how small time frame (for example, can you test on 5-minute chart, 6 months ago)?
And finally, but maybe most important - how much it costs? Through broker or if you download the software? Do they offer some kind of free demo, and under what limitations? Tim, does Interbank FX offers free demo account? If yes, what are the limitations and with that accout do you get full-featured MT4 (with possibility of backtesting)?
Thank you all!
Shone
Metaquotes Meta Trader 4 is a Charting and order placing platform. It has a programming interface so that you can create your own indicators, uses indicators others have written, write automated trading systems and use trading systems others have written ( automated trading systems actually place orders and can close them without your intervention). the package comes with numerous indicators allready written and a HUGE base of custom inidcators are available at places like FF.
You can open a demo account with brokers like IBFX or FXDD or StrategyBuilder (has no expiration and huge backtest data). With IBFX and FXDD the demo's expire but you can reopen all the time. WARNING the data feeds can and will be different from OANDA 's data feed.
If you want to go extreme, you can even have MQ4 produce Files to place and close orders then have them placed with OANDA using their API (Many custom programs will need to be written)
Happy Trading
EllisEdi Moving on to my next trade ...
Hey Kevin how ya doing? I'm trying your system on my mini platform. Working pretty good. Think I'm going to start using it next week on my standard platform. I've tried a few, , of these threads on here and I think yours is working out the best. THANK YOU VERY MUCH. Let me know if I can do anything for you. I'm pretty knowledgeable with support and resistances if you need to anything. Thanks again. Take care and make money. 
, of these threads on here and I think yours is working out the best. THANK YOU VERY MUCH. Let me know if I can do anything for you. I'm pretty knowledgeable with support and resistances if you need to anything. Thanks again. Take care and make money.