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RSI Daily Pivot Point System v2.0

  • #101
  • Jan 24, 2007 5:03pm Jan 24, 2007 5:03pm
Quoting broc0501
Just used a s/l at 2530 due to your method of the low of the pivot candle. Please let me know if i have that wrong. And yes your right there is a major resist. at 2540 2530. The weekly does look overbought, but the daily does show some sign of room for more uptrend. The daily does show a triple top though. LOL. Just have to wait and see for next daly candle. The euro is also showing a current support lvl. If this follows where do you think i could possibly jump on the train when it starts. Thank you for your responces.
You use the low of the pivot candle OR 100 pips, Whichever is LOWER. More than 100 pips is toooo much to lose in my book. I can't see weekly on OANDA I don't know where this thing is headed.. but hopefully it's down because I don't want to lose pips ! If it goes long, I'm getting in at 1.2514, the approximate high of yesterday.
  • #102
  • Jan 24, 2007 5:15pm Jan 24, 2007 5:15pm
OOO you mean which ever is less not lower correct? because i have seen price action come close to the previous (pivot) candle and go back. Just wondering and trying to straighten that out. And i put an entry before at 2535 or 45 due to the major resistance level. To make sure it breaks that. What ya think? The next day candles just formed. Thank you.
  • #103
  • Jan 24, 2007 5:19pm Jan 24, 2007 5:19pm
Quoting broc0501
OOO you mean which ever is less not lower correct? because i have seen price action come close to the previous (pivot) candle and go back. Just wondering and trying to straighten that out. And i put an entry before at 2535 or 45 due to the major resistance level. To make sure it breaks that. What ya think? The next day candles just formed. Thank you.
Yes, I mean less. Sorry for the confusion there. As far as your entries go, that sounds good to me. I don't use supports and resistances very much, so whatever works for you is fine with me! And your next day started already?! Where are you from??
  • #104
  • Jan 24, 2007 5:32pm Jan 24, 2007 5:32pm
Im on the east coast. Massachussets. You?? Support and resistance play a major major role in trading. Thats what most of this is all about. Just look at a chart and you can see naturally where price action usually stops and begins. You must know what your doing though due to the gains you do get. It just might be something you might want to look at. It might keep some bad trades out every once in awhile. I use metatrader charts. But, what i can tell your charts are pretty damn close. Maybe a couple pips off which is really close. I have a friend in a company. Damn trading desks can really get you. I like to incorporate all that i can that will help in being a successful trader. Its hard enough without some idiot going after your stops.
  • #105
  • Jan 24, 2007 6:35pm Jan 24, 2007 6:35pm
Hi Kevin,

Just a follow-up on your advice regarding a stop loss for AUD/JPY, i.e. at the top of the candle where the trade started. On my daily chart, the high was 96.43, which would put the new stop above the stop you originally suggested at 96.12. I'm curious because I'm currently 80+ pips up on that trade and it seemed odd to actually increase the original stop loss but let me know if that's how you usually handle it.

BTW I also have a new trading day already underway. The new daily candle on my chart starts at 5 p.m. EST. How does Oanda do it?
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #106
  • Jan 24, 2007 6:43pm Jan 24, 2007 6:43pm
Quoting kharvell
I don't know about the MOST volatile, but certainly volatile. Pairs like GBP/JPY are a little too volatile for me. Although, Raphael who has been PMing me his results, has made 259 pips off of GBP/JPY using my system. I asked him to keep sending me his results so that I may decide whether I want to try to tame that volatility. There are a lot of pairs with about the same volatility of the pairs I use. On Oanda, there is a correlation chart, and I tried to pick pairs that they showed did NOT correlate. Also, I am most comfortable with these pairs because they are what I have backtested.

Good luck to you on your short trade! I hope we all make some pips with this one! And if we lose... well, here's to the next trade !

Kevin
Kevin . . . I'm just trying to pick your brain here. Don't GBP/USD and USD/CHF have a very high correlation? I'm curious why you chose the two as part of your 4 trade pairs. I understand the back testing was successful but in most instances in would seem you would either win on both or lose on both.

Thanks!
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #107
  • Edited Jan 25, 2007 3:42pm Jan 24, 2007 8:59pm | Edited Jan 25, 2007 3:42pm
Randy, once again, thanks heaps for the explanation...I'm surely is getting there...

That candle on my chart turned out to be a pivot...but due to RSI being > 50, it's still no trade...However, just a thought... notice the divergence?

{image deleted, please repost 600x600 max}

Quoting RandyG67
Good Morning Wally,

You're very close to having this thing down!

With what the chart is telling you right now you have a potential pivot (though it is looking pretty good). What needs to happen now is for price to move down thru the low of the circled candle (identified as #4 in the previous post) AND the RSI to nosedive per the rules in Kevein's first post of this thread. And remember, to enter a short Daily Pivot trade on this #4 candle, price needs to move down thru it's low side (with RSI confirmation) within three days. Otherwise, wait for the next formation.



By the time this current candle completes, it may stop well short of breaking through the low of our #4 candle. Then we look (wait) for the next day's candle and see if it breaks down through the low of good 'ol #4. If it does (with RSI confirmation), reach for your money. Heck it may break through the top of our #4 candle and then it would become our potential pivot (depending on what the successive candles and the RSI do).

Randy
  • #108
  • Jan 24, 2007 10:01pm Jan 24, 2007 10:01pm
Well done sir!

You've seen something to take and make this your own....or at least dovetail it with some other indicator/method you are comfortable with.

Myself, I am incorporating the Daily Pivot with what I have learned regarding price action and Bollinger Band movement.

All together we might come up with filters to keep us out of some of those losing trades. Who knows?

Randy
  • #109
  • Jan 24, 2007 10:33pm Jan 24, 2007 10:33pm
Quoting yen44x
Hi Kevin,

Just a follow-up on your advice regarding a stop loss for AUD/JPY, i.e. at the top of the candle where the trade started. On my daily chart, the high was 96.43, which would put the new stop above the stop you originally suggested at 96.12. I'm curious because I'm currently 80+ pips up on that trade and it seemed odd to actually increase the original stop loss but let me know if that's how you usually handle it.

BTW I also have a new trading day already underway. The new daily candle on my chart starts at 5 p.m. EST. How does Oanda do it?
I think I misinterpreted your question. I was under the impression that you were talking about the S/L after the initial S/L. The original one should be 100 pips for this AUD/JPY instance.

Suppose tomorrow moves 200 pips(*fingers crossed* ). The S/L will still be set at the high of tomorrow at the end of the day, not 100 pips from the close or low.

I believe Oanda uses my local time or some version thereof. My candles close at 10PM CST.

Quote
Kevin . . . I'm just trying to pick your brain here. Don't GBP/USD and USD/CHF have a very high correlation? I'm curious why you chose the two as part of your 4 trade pairs. I understand the back testing was successful but in most instances in would seem you would either win on both or lose on both.

I knew I wanted to trade GBP/USD. I looked at Oanda's Correlation Charts, and the 1 month correlation was .06 which is almost none, but it seems that longer term it is highly correlated. Since the maximum time I figured I could hold a trade would be 1 month, I tried to pick pairs with little correlation(Harder than it sounds) Anyway, here is a chart from Oanda you can mess with and pick your own pairs. I only suggest volatility.
http://fxlabs.oanda.com/cgi/fxlabs.pl?id=4

Quote
Randy, once again, thanks heaps for the explanation...I'm surely is getting there...

That candle on my chart turned out to be a pivot...but due to RSI being > 50, it's still no trade...However, just a thought... notice the divergence?

Very nice chart! I hadn't noticed the divergence there, and that makes this upcoming GBP/USD trade DOUBLY good


So, I'll give it an 85% that we enter both USD/JPY and GBP/USD today. Both RSI's are just a hair off but will surely get there.

So who entered AUD/JPY with me? If you did, I bet you're feeling not so bad about what a bugger USD/CHF is being! These 114 pips are making me looove that 50:1 leverage:

Here are my trades again which keep in mind short GBP/USD and USD/JPY will be added relatively soon:

Short AUD/JPY @ 95.12 S/L 95.37 = 114 pips
Short USD/CHF @ 1.2423 S/L 1.2514 = - 52 pips
Net Unrealized pips = 62
  • #110
  • Jan 24, 2007 10:59pm Jan 24, 2007 10:59pm
Kevin,

Thanks for the the response. I found this site http://www.mataf.net/en/analysis-correlation.htm

It lists a LOT of currency pairs, so it may be of interest to you in looking at currency correlations also. I was surprised that it states that AUD/JPY and GBP/USD have a fairly high correlation, which I don't see the reason for on the surface, so maybe someone smarter than me can explain it.

At any rate, what you're doing is working well, so "if it ain't broke, don't fix it."

I'm in the same trades as you, so here's to AUD/JPY continuing to fall and USD/CHF turning around!
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #111
  • Jan 24, 2007 11:36pm Jan 24, 2007 11:36pm
Thanks a lot Kharvell for sharing this system and thanks to all for their comments. I find it very helpful. I am currently demoing th sytem with good results.

Keep up the good work.
  • #112
  • Jan 25, 2007 4:11am Jan 25, 2007 4:11am
Wallym

Please reduce your the size of your posted charts to 600x600 so we do not have to scrol to left and right for the rest of the posts on this page.

Thank you
Regards
  • #113
  • Jan 25, 2007 4:13am Jan 25, 2007 4:13am
Quoting howard
Wallym

Please reduce your the size of your posted charts to 600x600 so we do not have to scrol to left and right for the rest of the posts on this page.

Thank you
Sorry, correction

.......reduce the size of your posted charts
Regards
  • #114
  • Jan 25, 2007 8:13am Jan 25, 2007 8:13am
Goooood morning everyone

Quoting yen44x
Kevin,

Thanks for the the response. I found this site http://www.mataf.net/en/analysis-correlation.htm

It lists a LOT of currency pairs, so it may be of interest to you in looking at currency correlations also. I was surprised that it states that AUD/JPY and GBP/USD have a fairly high correlation, which I don't see the reason for on the surface, so maybe someone smarter than me can explain it.

At any rate, what you're doing is working well, so "if it ain't broke, don't fix it."

I'm in the same trades as you, so here's to AUD/JPY continuing to fall and USD/CHF turning around!
Thanks for the website Yen! I will look it over later and see if maybe there's a better combination. Which pairs have you decided to use?

Quote
Thanks a lot Kharvell for sharing this system and thanks to all for their comments. I find it very helpful. I am currently demoing th sytem with good results.

Keep up the good work.

Hi Mark
Glad to hear you are having some success! Thanks for the compliments.



Alright then,
It looks as though my RSI rule has kept us out of some presumably bad trades. USD/JPY and GBP/USD have both turned around for the moment, but may reverse in our favor later. Maybe not.

USD/CHF has gone down again! HOPEFULLY it will continue, but I honestly couldn't say whether it's going up or down! I'm just following the system:

And AUD/JPY looks about the same. May be the end of the trend. I'll give it a look later and see what the options are.

Trades, so far so good:
Short AUD/JPY @ 95.12 S/L 95.37 = 108 pips
Short USD/CHF @ 1.2423 S/L 1.2514 = - 9 pips
Net Unrealized pips = 99 pips
  • #115
  • Edited 9:04am Jan 25, 2007 8:59am | Edited 9:04am
It looks as though my RSI rule has kept us out of some presumably bad trades. USD/JPY and GBP/USD have both turned around for the moment, but may reverse in our favor later. Maybe not. Quote from Kevin


Kevin - Isn't it also one of the RSI rules to buy/sell if the RSI has come down from 70 to 60 in a steep slope heading to 50 and RSI has moved up from 30 to 40 in the same steep slope heading to 50?
  • #116
  • Jan 25, 2007 9:04am Jan 25, 2007 9:04am
Quote
USD/CHF has gone down again! HOPEFULLY it will continue

FWIW, I dropped down to the H1 and H4 charts and looked over the Bollinger Bands info that I've been learning and it looks like this will break our way. Those of us that took the EUR long....I still have faith in that too.

I need to learn to project the "when" in the future the price will react in accordance with what I am interpreting from the lower time-frame charts. That's a work in progress but nonetheless, I see price trending for these two trades in "our" direction.

Randy
  • #117
  • Jan 25, 2007 9:14am Jan 25, 2007 9:14am
Quoting tim4kaye
It looks as though my RSI rule has kept us out of some presumably bad trades. USD/JPY and GBP/USD have both turned around for the moment, but may reverse in our favor later. Maybe not. Quote from Kevin


Kevin - Isn't it also one of the RSI rules to buy/sell if the RSI has come down from 70 to 60 in a steep slope heading to 50 and RSI has moved up from 30 to 40 in the same steep slope heading to 50?
OOoohhh... I didn't see that on the USD/JPY! I guess I should be short USD/JPY since the RSI came from 70 yesterday and was below 60... Did you enter? If you did, it probably isn't bad... It met all my conditions, I just didn't notice it. Right now it's not going right, but I think it will eventually. USD is being rather stubborn, but I still think it will go down significantly whether it be in a week or 3 weeks. As far as GBP/USD it didn't meet any of the RSI conditions.

I think if the RSI goes below 50 I will enter the USD/JPY now that I've missed my opportunity, but thanks for pointing that out Tim... I TOTALLY missed it!

Quote
FWIW, I dropped down to the H1 and H4 charts and looked over the Bollinger Bands info that I've been learning and it looks like this will break our way. Those of us that took the EUR long....I still have faith in that too.

I need to learn to project the "when" in the future the price will react in accordance with what I am interpreting from the lower time-frame charts. That's a work in progress but nonetheless, I see price trending for these two trades in "our" direction.

Randy

Randy,
Thanks for the information! It's good to know that your indicators are confirming the trade I'm in And as far as projecting goes, I think if you stare at charts long enough some things come to you. Not saying I have this ability yet after only a year of trading, but I'm starting to notice I'm better at it.
Good luck,
Kevin
  • #118
  • Jan 25, 2007 9:25am Jan 25, 2007 9:25am
Actually you know what I am shorting USD/JPY now. I don't see why not. It met all my conditions yesterday. And now is a good time to enter seeing as how it retraced today.

Short USD/JPY
Date: Jan 25th 2007 9:21 AM CST
Price: 120.99
S/L: 121.8
I have to go to work now, I will explain the reason later

Good luck,
Kevin
  • #119
  • Jan 25, 2007 9:39am Jan 25, 2007 9:39am
Kevin, I thought the rsi had to be below 60 from 70 to short it. Mine is still at 63. Just checking!
  • #120
  • Jan 25, 2007 10:21am Jan 25, 2007 10:21am
Quoting broc0501
Kevin, I thought the rsi had to be below 60 from 70 to short it. Mine is still at 63. Just checking!
Since Kevin is out right now, I'll toss in my 2 pips worth.
RSI was under 60 for a considerable time during this daily candle, and then went back above 60 when price retraced.

Even though Kevin's rules state that the end of the day is the best time to review potential trades & RSI, he also adds that trader discretion is still involved. In this case, it sounds like his inclination was to get into the trade now since price retraced and he got a better entry point as a result.

I personally held off on the JPY trade for now to get a better idea where RSI goes and to see what might happen in the early part of the Asian session.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
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