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Technical Analysis and a few charts to ponder

  • #161
  • Jan 24, 2007 7:36am Jan 24, 2007 7:36am
Pound 1 HR
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Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #162
  • Jan 24, 2007 2:45pm Jan 24, 2007 2:45pm
Well the question this morning was which breakout did we believe. The USD/CHF or the GBP/USD.

The winner was the GBP/USD. The GBP/USD extended its breakout 100 pips downword while the USD/CHF crept back up into the consoldation channel. The EUR/USD However still remains in it range channel. This leaves me with the overall view that the dollar is still undecided. And that the pound is primarily weakening due to its own circustances and not by proxy of a strengthening dollar.

Here are the update charts starting with the USD/CHF
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Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #163
  • Jan 24, 2007 2:46pm Jan 24, 2007 2:46pm
The pound
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Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #164
  • Jan 24, 2007 2:47pm Jan 24, 2007 2:47pm
And finally the Euro still in its channel
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Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #165
  • Jan 24, 2007 2:59pm Jan 24, 2007 2:59pm
Quoting zawodowiec
Awesome thread.. lots of good things to learn here. I do have a few questions though.

First of all, in one of the earlier posts you write "I just try to look for correllations where there could be a reaction and try to profit from it." What sort of correlations are those and how to spot them? It would be awesome if you could post some charts explaining this.

Secondly, I'd like to learn more about the projections that you show on some charts a while back. Where would I get any info on that as I have not seen anything on the subject on the web?

My third question is in regard to the murrey math. What is your opinion of it? I do have some material on it, and would like to know what sort of thing I can expect from it from someone who's had experience trading it.

Anyway, I'll be following your thread carefully. Also, I'll try to post some of my own technical analysis charts and hopefully you can review and comment on that. Thanks
Matt
Hello Matt,

There is a pretty good description on the origions of and my technique for drawing what I call price channels earlier in the thread.
I don't think you will find anything on the web regarding those price channels. I have not yet seen anyone else draw them like I do outside of this thread.

As for Murrey Math, it is similar to pivot points but not really the same. I find that it provides a nice framework for the market. I particularly find it useful on the 15 minute time frame but people use it on almost any time frame. I have never been formally trained to use murrey math. I use it in my own way. But the readers digest version is that I merely look for behavioral patterns in how the price reacts to different levels. Each currency pair has its own nuances. I would suggest that you put the indicator on your charts and study the indicators relation to price action until you see corrollations that you can capitalize on.

Please do post your charts for discussion that is why I started this thread.
I wish more people would post their t/a charts for discussion. I am kind of surprised that we have not seen any elliot people in here.
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #166
  • Jan 25, 2007 12:05am Jan 25, 2007 12:05am
Thanks for all your input. I'll definitely review your earlier charts more in depth. And will look into the murrey math stuff as well.
  • #167
  • Jan 25, 2007 12:12am Jan 25, 2007 12:12am
In the attached chart, I've drawn some of the resistance/support levels that refer to the shorter time frames (15, 30 min) for intraday trades. The problem I have is there are quite a lot of them and some are really close to each other. How do I go about deciding which ones are major and which ones are less significant? Or do I leave all of them on and just observe which level will the price react to? These are some basic questions, and there is a lot of material on the internet on the subject, and yet I haven't been able to find anything that tells you what to do in such cases.
  • #168
  • Jan 25, 2007 12:13am Jan 25, 2007 12:13am
the chart
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  • #169
  • Jan 25, 2007 2:20am Jan 25, 2007 2:20am
Quoting zawodowiec
In the attached chart, I've drawn some of the resistance/support levels that refer to the shorter time frames (15, 30 min) for intraday trades. The problem I have is there are quite a lot of them and some are really close to each other. How do I go about deciding which ones are major and which ones are less significant? Or do I leave all of them on and just observe which level will the price react to? These are some basic questions, and there is a lot of material on the internet on the subject, and yet I haven't been able to find anything that tells you what to do in such cases.
hi there,

sorry to intrude, and probably this has been answered before.

I prefer to use at least 60 min timeframes to assess support resistance in the following order

1) swing lows-highs
2) price clusters or price congestion area (i.e. ranges)
3) fibs
4) pivots
5) day-week-month open-closing prices

g
With a break always expect a pullback, otherwise, you're dead meat/
  • #170
  • Jan 25, 2007 6:58am Jan 25, 2007 6:58am
Quoting zawodowiec
the chart
Oh yes, that was the mac daddy GBP/USD trade right there. It is rare that such a good trade is so obvious on the charts. I hope you made good money on that set up.
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #171
  • Jan 25, 2007 7:01am Jan 25, 2007 7:01am
Here is an update of our euro 4hr channel.
As the chart show the eur/usd bounced off of the bottom channel line.
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Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #172
  • Jan 25, 2007 12:24pm Jan 25, 2007 12:24pm
Thanks for your answer Ghitz,
Here's my improved chart. We can see that right now there is some heave resistance 1.9719, and this is also where the pivot point is. Also, it is at the upper channel line. Let me know what you think.
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  • #173
  • Jan 25, 2007 3:06pm Jan 25, 2007 3:06pm
I'd say that turned out to be the trade of the day.
I waited for the break short to sell but I am going to hold it and see if it develops.

Here is an updated chart of the EUR/USD showing the breakout. We'll see if it can manage any follow through.
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Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #174
  • Jan 25, 2007 3:43pm Jan 25, 2007 3:43pm
Here is the trade I took, first the price didnt break through the pivot point, and I entered on the break of the triangle.
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  • #175
  • Edited Mar 3, 2007 2:58pm Jan 25, 2007 5:39pm | Edited Mar 3, 2007 2:58pm
Quoting zawodowiec
Thanks for your answer Ghitz,
Here's my improved chart. We can see that right now there is some heave resistance 1.9719, and this is also where the pivot point is. Also, it is at the upper channel line. Let me know what you think.
seems like you got it qute right. have a look at this chart. weekly chart. also look at the monthly chart. bar for january is currently a huge spinning top. fibs are from the high to low. put that together with a 4 hr chart. look at swing lows. look at price congestions on 60 mins. look at monthly and weekly open-closing levels, and you got your map.
With a break always expect a pullback, otherwise, you're dead meat/
  • #176
  • Edited 7:07pm Jan 25, 2007 6:11pm | Edited 7:07pm
hi,

i'm new to price action...

i would like to take a short if the price breaks the pennant

http://img71.imageshack.us/img71/2571/scalpfv0.gif
  • #177
  • Jan 25, 2007 7:13pm Jan 25, 2007 7:13pm
Quoting ghitz
seems like you got it qute right. have a look at this chart. weekly chart. also look at the monthly chart. bar for january is currently a huge spinning top. fibs are from the high to low. put that together with a 4 hr chart. look at swing lows. look at price congestions on 60 mins. look at monthly and weekly open-closing levels, and you got your map.

thanks for the info. just to make sure, you put the fibs from the high to low right? whats the reason for that?
  • #178
  • Jan 26, 2007 2:55am Jan 26, 2007 2:55am
Quoting zawodowiec
thanks for the info. just to make sure, you put the fibs from the high to low right? whats the reason for that?
no reason. could be the otherway around, unless you are looking at extensions. i am looking at a range defined by that spinningtop, so it doesnt matter.

g
With a break always expect a pullback, otherwise, you're dead meat/
  • #179
  • Jan 29, 2007 5:44pm Jan 29, 2007 5:44pm
Here is an updated chart with thursday euro bear flag break out.
Typical the target for such a break out would be the width of the channel. The width of the channel in this case was 100 pips. As you can see on the chart below the target would have been 1.2850 Thursdays breakout achieved a low of about 1.2880. While this trade was by no means a loser, it was a weak breakout. As a note, I will state that I typically move my stops to break even as soon as the trade clears 25+ pips to the positive with my initial stop usually being the midriff of the break out candle and no more that about 23 pips.
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Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #180
  • Jan 29, 2007 5:51pm Jan 29, 2007 5:51pm
Here is a pic of weekly cable
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Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
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