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  • #161
  • Apr 28, 2008 9:04pm Apr 28, 2008 9:04pm
Quoting jets211990
Read the post above i edit it a couple of hours ago...i said buliish bias...read it again
I was referring to USDCHF pair since this is a USD/CHF analysis thread. Wasn't paying attention to the euro analysis. Sorry. Anyway usdchf is turning up a bit instead of going down. Just a slight correction?
Expected the unexpected
  • #162
  • Apr 28, 2008 9:24pm Apr 28, 2008 9:24pm
Quoting scyang
I was referring to USDCHF pair since this is a USD/CHF analysis thread. Wasn't paying attention to the euro analysis. Sorry. Anyway usdchf is turning up a bit instead of going down. Just a slight correction?

Read post 62 bud....
Thats the one i was talking about....I updated both a couple of hours ago...
  • #163
  • Apr 28, 2008 9:28pm Apr 28, 2008 9:28pm
What i said was that in the daily it looked like a possibel reversal in the market to head south because of the trenlines...also we are close to our monthly targets...

Next in the one hour chart it is appearing to hold support...but i dont take trades unless franky is open...Second if you take a long look at pric action as it impacts the downward trenline...
  • #164
  • Apr 28, 2008 9:53pm Apr 28, 2008 9:53pm
hmm. I am bull on euro bear on swissy for next two days. After that, big bull on swissy.
  • #165
  • Apr 28, 2008 9:58pm Apr 28, 2008 9:58pm
Quoting 4XWeezal
hmm. I am bull on euro bear on swissy for next two days. After that, big bull on swissy.
What is your reasoning behind this? How far down do you expect swissy to go?
Expected the unexpected
  • #166
  • Apr 28, 2008 10:01pm Apr 28, 2008 10:01pm
Quoting 4XWeezal
hmm. I am bull on euro bear on swissy for next two days. After that, big bull on swissy.

Thats why i dont pull the trigger yet since this candles give false breakouts during assian session. I ussally put my act together at the open of lond open...Thats why i said pay attetion to mjor resistance from trendline...I also metioned that the eur/usd was looking bullish...if thats to hold then usd/chf should come down...I will keep on updating as we get closer to the london open that when i make a trade and snipe the market...
  • #167
  • Apr 28, 2008 10:13pm Apr 28, 2008 10:13pm
Quoting jets211990
Thats why i dont pull the trigger yet since this candles give false breakouts during assian session. I ussally put my act together at the open of lond open...Thats why i said pay attetion to mjor resistance from trendline...I also metioned that the eur/usd was looking bullish...if thats to hold then usd/chf should come down...I will keep on updating as we get closer to the london open that when i make a trade and snipe the market...
Im bullish on both USD/CHF and EUR/USD. I know that's a bit odd, but from the charts it just looks that way.
  • #168
  • Apr 28, 2008 10:15pm Apr 28, 2008 10:15pm
Quoting Clouds
Im bullish on both USD/CHF and EUR/USD. I know that's a bit odd, but from the charts it just looks that way.
Yeah, that is a bit odd. Always thought eur/usd and usd/chf are cross pairs. If your analysis is correct, which is more and more like you are, that means eur/chf is going very long.
Expected the unexpected
  • #169
  • Apr 28, 2008 10:27pm Apr 28, 2008 10:27pm
Quoting scyang
Yeah, that is a bit odd. Always thought eur/usd and usd/chf are cross pairs. If your analysis is correct, which is more and more like you are, that means eur/chf is going very long.
I see both the Yen and Swissy as weak right now, but I am not sure if it's just a correction or a change in trend.
  • #170
  • Apr 28, 2008 10:30pm Apr 28, 2008 10:30pm
Quoting Clouds
I see both the Yen and Swissy as weak right now, but I am not sure if it's just a correction or a change in trend.
If both eurusd and usdchf strengthen, that would probably limit the level of both since I just can't see eurchf stretching that far.
Expected the unexpected
  • #171
  • Apr 28, 2008 10:37pm Apr 28, 2008 10:37pm
Quoting scyang
If both eurusd and usdchf strengthen, that would probably limit the level of both since I just can't see eurchf stretching that far.
Looking at weekly EUR/CHF, it had been in uptrend since 03' from 1.47 to 1.68, and then dropped like a rock to 1.53 and now up 1.59 in 1 month time. Don't know.
  • #172
  • Apr 28, 2008 10:50pm Apr 28, 2008 10:50pm
Quoting Clouds
Looking at weekly EUR/CHF, it had been in uptrend since 03' from 1.47 to 1.68, and then dropped like a rock to 1.53 and now up 1.59 in 1 month time. Don't know.
Eurchf is at 1.6185 now. Given that it was once at 1.68, it might be trying to go back to that level, but I don't know what the fundamental reasons might be behind such a move.
Expected the unexpected
  • #173
  • Apr 30, 2008 12:13am Apr 30, 2008 12:13am
Price has brocken intraday fibbs ...now I am hopping to find support...
Looking bullish

Also eur/usd is looking bearish

Pay attention to fundis tonight though...

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  • #174
  • Apr 30, 2008 4:40am Apr 30, 2008 4:40am
Wanna bet 1$ that $/CHF will be trading 1.0170 by the end of the week? Actually I hope that post-FOMC it will go up 100 pips to fill my whole position first...
  • #175
  • Apr 30, 2008 4:42am Apr 30, 2008 4:42am
Quoting Parmalat
Wanna bet 1$ that $/CHF will be trading 1.0170 by the end of the week?
It's very possible. But I think anybody holding usdchf long position should be smart enough to take their profit and run before then.
Expected the unexpected
  • #176
  • Apr 30, 2008 5:47am Apr 30, 2008 5:47am
Quoting scyang
It's very possible. But I think anybody holding usdchf long position should be smart enough to take their profit and run before then.
agree with u,
those who holding long u ar very smart trader
  • #177
  • Apr 30, 2008 5:52am Apr 30, 2008 5:52am
Quoting Ultraman
agree with u,
those who holding long u ar very smart trader
Yes they are smart traders alright. They got in long even when the crowd is yellow usdchf going down since Monday.
Expected the unexpected
  • #178
  • Apr 30, 2008 10:20am Apr 30, 2008 10:20am
Quoting scyang
Yes they are smart traders alright. They got in long even when the crowd is yellow usdchf going down since Monday.

Support held on this currency last night i took a long last night and got out long time ago....I had a very good night last night...

I will update this currency later on tonight...
  • #179
  • Apr 30, 2008 2:44pm Apr 30, 2008 2:44pm
In the wake of recent comments from the Fed, it seems that I'm a pig. Following the FOMC statement, the pair is looking quite poor (for me it's outlook was poor from a week ago when it started to rally, but confirmation was needed). The next levels in play are 1.0300 and 1.0250, while the upside is clearly defined at the 1.0430 double top. A break above that (unlikely) creates momentum for 1.0470. To the downside, the final target stays at 1.0170 which is the 50% retracement of the move originating on 22nd of April.
Please note that the FOMC statement hardly delivered any surprises as the 25 bp rate cut with a future pause was already priced in as well as the deteriorating outlook of the economy. Although I expected a quick drop through support (my personal bet was a 50 bp rate cut together with a dovish statement), I believe that the price action has enough remaining momentum to test the double top once again on thin liquidity, considering that Europe is out tomorrow (Labour Day) and Friday's action will be subdued to the NFP report.
All in all, I squared 75% of my position for 90 pips after the FOMC and will be looking to re-offer 25% around 1.0430 if that plays, for a target of 1.0170 which - unfortunately for my 1$ - is revised for next week
  • #180
  • Apr 30, 2008 9:38pm Apr 30, 2008 9:38pm
Quoting Parmalat
In the wake of recent comments from the Fed, it seems that I'm a pig. Following the FOMC statement, the pair is looking quite poor (for me it's outlook was poor from a week ago when it started to rally, but confirmation was needed). The next levels in play are 1.0300 and 1.0250, while the upside is clearly defined at the 1.0430 double top. A break above that (unlikely) creates momentum for 1.0470. To the downside, the final target stays at 1.0170 which is the 50% retracement of the move originating on 22nd of April.
Please note that the FOMC statement hardly delivered any surprises as the 25 bp rate cut with a future pause was already priced in as well as the deteriorating outlook of the economy. Although I expected a quick drop through support (my personal bet was a 50 bp rate cut together with a dovish statement), I believe that the price action has enough remaining momentum to test the double top once again on thin liquidity, considering that Europe is out tomorrow (Labour Day) and Friday's action will be subdued to the NFP report.
All in all, I squared 75% of my position for 90 pips after the FOMC and will be looking to re-offer 25% around 1.0430 if that plays, for a target of 1.0170 which - unfortunately for my 1$ - is revised for next week
Are you sure this pair will go back to test 1.0430-40 range? What is the time frame that you see it will do that, if so? How low do you think it will go before it starts going back up to retest the double top area?
Expected the unexpected
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