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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #62,821
  • Apr 25, 2008 3:48am Apr 25, 2008 3:48am
again at 1.9750 which was previous support now resistance, lets see if it clears. i was long since yesterday at this price, everything was going well, then IFO comes out which affected cable against me, then UK retail sales (again bad) then US jobless claims (again good for USD bad for me), but still we are here again, im holding it till 1.9920
  • #62,822
  • Apr 25, 2008 3:50am Apr 25, 2008 3:50am
Quoting scyang
Those numbers are considered good? Why is the cable going up instead of down when everybody knows UK economy has been bad?
I went short when the data released showing that its suppose to go down and yet i my post hit the SL already...:surprised
  • #62,823
  • Apr 25, 2008 3:52am Apr 25, 2008 3:52am
Quoting joemilly
I went short when the data released showing that its suppose to go down and yet i my post hit the SL already...:surprised
Keep that in mind don't trade at news time. Wait for the 15 min, 1 hour or 4 hours candle to close before trading after news
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #62,824
  • Apr 25, 2008 3:53am Apr 25, 2008 3:53am
GBP/USD: Q/Q Growth In Line With Forecast, Stg Catches A Bid London, April 25. First quarter growth came in with a 0.4% pick up on the quarter, slowing from 0.6% during the last three months of 2007. The annual pace was just below the market"s 2.6% shout at 2.5%. The Q/Q growth was the weakest in 3-years and included sizeable drops in mining and energy. On the plus side manufacturing and transport were in positive territory but still showed falls from Q4 07.
Sterling has climbed from 1.9695 to 1.9760, initially helped by the data and then stop loss orders at 1.9750. Stops have also gone off in EUR/GBP with orders tripped at 0.7935 and 0.7900.
Once the data dust has settled Cable is likely to drift back towards 1.9700 although the combination of "as expected" data plus the rumoured hedge fund rout in EUR/USD could help keep Sterling out of too much trouble.
Trading is 80% Emotional, 20% Technical
  • #62,825
  • Apr 25, 2008 3:56am Apr 25, 2008 3:56am
Quoting scyang
Those numbers are considered good? Why is the cable going up instead of down when everybody knows UK economy has been bad?
That's a million-dollar question. Seems we should be expecting it to hit DR1. if it breaks, then, up we go..fx market is not actually mathematics.
PIPS AND PIPS ONLY... + OF COURSE
  • #62,826
  • Apr 25, 2008 3:59am Apr 25, 2008 3:59am
We got one hell of a bounce off what has been a strong Daily level for a long time and I can't understand why noone has mentioned it before myself. The news apparently was not strong enough to breach this level and resulted in a bounce that for one, I was ready for.....

Quoting scyang
Those numbers are considered good? Why is the cable going up instead of down when everybody knows UK economy has been bad?
  • #62,827
  • Apr 25, 2008 4:00am Apr 25, 2008 4:00am
1hr candle give at least 50 pips hectic ..
  • #62,828
  • Apr 25, 2008 4:01am Apr 25, 2008 4:01am
Quoting joemilly
I went short when the data released showing that its suppose to go down and yet i my post hit the SL already...:surprised
The data did not show that cable was supposed to go down. it wasn't supposed to affect GBP egatively bcos there was no negative trigger. I didn't expect it to favor it anyway. Be sure u know of ur fundamental abilities b4 trading news. I simply steered clear.
PIPS AND PIPS ONLY... + OF COURSE
  • #62,829
  • Apr 25, 2008 4:03am Apr 25, 2008 4:03am
The sopport I am talking about is the Magenta line on this chart.
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  • #62,830
  • Apr 25, 2008 4:06am Apr 25, 2008 4:06am
still heavy resistance...carefull with the longs ...
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  • #62,831
  • Apr 25, 2008 4:08am Apr 25, 2008 4:08am
Quoting fx local
as expected prior candle closed above medium line reopened above it, target for longs from 19687 at 19815 and approaching looking to perhaps reverse from there
moved stop up substainally now, looking for 19800-15 exits
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Trading is 80% Emotional, 20% Technical
  • #62,832
  • Apr 25, 2008 4:12am Apr 25, 2008 4:12am
Quoting kaka08
The data did not show that cable was supposed to go down. it wasn't supposed to affect GBP egatively bcos there was no negative trigger. I didn't expect it to favor it anyway. Be sure u know of ur fundamental abilities b4 trading news. I simply steered clear.
I agreed.
the market is not settled yet on where it wants to go
untill it passed above 9820, then it will be cool round up of the week
the week's cycle
  • #62,833
  • Apr 25, 2008 4:14am Apr 25, 2008 4:14am
Quoting fx local
moved stop up substainally now, looking for 19800-15 exits
good chart buddy ...

red line seem to be causing issues now ...i suspect it will go down from here. doji or high way candle assuming it closes like that, indicated oversoled.....madness ( we didnt even go up yet ..lol)
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  • #62,834
  • Apr 25, 2008 4:17am Apr 25, 2008 4:17am
Price is testing the Daily Pivot righ now
  • #62,835
  • Apr 25, 2008 4:24am Apr 25, 2008 4:24am
Really nice looking Morning Star on the 1 Hr guys. Good Confirmation, and with KBL, chances are it will follow thru.
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  • #62,836
  • Apr 25, 2008 4:28am Apr 25, 2008 4:28am
Quoting scyang
Those numbers are considered good? Why is the cable going up instead of down when everybody knows UK economy has been bad?
That's a good question scyang and I have no idea.

But I know what price shows me and right now, the "individual" weights of the majors show me that Cable is pretty strong across the board as seen below.

There's a heck of lower wick forming on the current 4hr candle and a bullish 30 min candle has closed above the 60ema (then retraced to test it for support and it held) which tells me that the Northern bus has finally left the depot http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif - let's hope it reaches its destination ...because I'm on it.

Price has only traveled around 95 pips today but then it is a Friday so whether we're going to see anywhere near an average daily range remains to be seen.

Read About the Northern Bus

I also notice that price is above the 200 ema on the monthly, weekly and daily charts. On the 4hr chart, price is below.
Trader TEB might see this as an excellent indication of trend correction with an opportunity to go long (more here).

Rob
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  • #62,837
  • Apr 25, 2008 4:30am Apr 25, 2008 4:30am
Quoting hard1head1
Really nice looking Morning Star on the 1 Hr guys. Good Confirmation, and with KBL, chances are it will follow thru.
this is the problem the signs are there i agree but i very nervous about going up ...i have moving averages all over the place and risk:reward isnt favoring up for me ..i might be at stage 3 of trading, scared to place a trade ..lol

weekly s1 area now ..looks good ...
  • #62,838
  • Apr 25, 2008 4:33am Apr 25, 2008 4:33am
Quoting fx local
moved stop up substainally now, looking for 19800-15 exits

covered half at 19797 , look to see if we clear this 19800 handle with the rest....
Trading is 80% Emotional, 20% Technical
  • #62,839
  • Apr 25, 2008 4:34am Apr 25, 2008 4:34am
Just keep moving your stops, remember the overall trend is up, see chart. And I am looking for 9840 + here as it may go all the way to the 4 Hr 89

Quoting nAVIN2007
this is the problem the signs are there i agree but i very nervous about going up ...i have moving averages all over the place and risk:reward isnt favoring up for me ..i might be at stage 3 of trading, scared to place a trade ..lol

weekly s1 area now ..looks good ...
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  • #62,840
  • Apr 25, 2008 4:40am Apr 25, 2008 4:40am
I get my entrys off the 5 and 15 min charts and as it moves past the 89 Smoothed MA I go up on chart and trade to the next SMA. Check out my entry and how clear it was here after the 2 nice looking doji's and the test of the DPP, No way this wasn't going up.
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