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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #62,621
  • Apr 23, 2008 10:18pm Apr 23, 2008 10:18pm
This could be a fake to the upside, I have an 89 smoothy on my 15 and 5 min charts and wont go long until they are broken.
  • #62,622
  • Apr 23, 2008 10:21pm Apr 23, 2008 10:21pm
the 9800 is a critical level for me, if it breaks and tests, it may signal a long, but it could only be a test of the Daily pivot, pairs come back to test them from time to time.
  • #62,623
  • Apr 23, 2008 10:27pm Apr 23, 2008 10:27pm
See what I mean.
  • #62,624
  • Apr 23, 2008 10:28pm Apr 23, 2008 10:28pm
Going down???
  • #62,625
  • Apr 23, 2008 10:36pm Apr 23, 2008 10:36pm
Quoting hard1head1
This could be a fake to the upside, I have an 89 smoothy on my 15 and 5 min charts and wont go long until they are broken.
Might continue the downtrend on the upside (?). One prob with patterns like this downsloping triangle is that they are so obvious - I believe the Pros manipulate such to mislead smaller traders..

Of course, the other view is that downsloping triangles don't have to breakout DOWN, they can breakout UP..

BTW What's an "89 smoothy"?

tia
Darkness lies one inch ahead..
  • #62,626
  • Apr 23, 2008 10:43pm Apr 23, 2008 10:43pm
Hello Everyone, I just wanted to share some little tid bits of info that really hold up as support and res. Pull up a 5 Minute chart and put the following on it. 1-89 EMA smoothed high (orange ) 1-89 EMA smoothed low (orange) 1-89 EMA close (lime green) 1-11 EMA close (red) 1-21 EMA close...

This will help you determine trend when on smaller charts and show you some heavy resistance areas. Along with some daily pivot points
  • #62,627
  • Apr 23, 2008 11:09pm Apr 23, 2008 11:09pm
Here are some PP's
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Pivot_Points.mq4   46 KB | 318 downloads
  • #62,628
  • Apr 23, 2008 11:28pm Apr 23, 2008 11:28pm
Quoting hard1head1
See, you are seeing it also. also, pair has broken a 4 hr uptrend line to the downside, making the trade down that FX was talking about to the downside more plausable. Pairs are just inactive at the moment
I dont think the longterm uptrend on the 4H is broken yet. Close but not there yet. Note we at the 61 fib on the uptrend.

I think that the downtrend isnt broken till we take close below 1.9750. And even then their is the bounce off the backside of the downward trend to think about.

Looking at the 1d I see an upward ABC formation and possibly setting up for the D movement.

Fundamentals cud change this I believe.
  • #62,629
  • Apr 23, 2008 11:31pm Apr 23, 2008 11:31pm
Right now too small movements to account for anything, I think once UK session starts, we'll start to see nice completion of retraces and breaking of key levels, bringing enough weight to signify the movements. Until then, it's very hard to gauge the sentiment relating to the EUR and GBP news later.

Personally, I am expecting moderate-bad sentiment on German news to bring EUR price down to lower trendline around 1.5800 where it will be a good BUY. Hawkish Trichet is a good bet (forex=casino, lol?). Risk is on good USD durable core and new home sales.

For GBP, expecting UK Retail sales to be bad as before, which I think this would bring price down to 1.9736 around (key resistance and also back of trendline), before rebounding back up. If breaks, then will see 1.9655 first. Can't tell if UK Retail and MPC minutes is already priced in, could be from yesterday's sharp move down from 2.0000.

I think GBP is still generally on a downside right now. Last week's descending wedge and news on BoE bond/mortgage swap plan brought it to the upside, confusing the market having a mixed sentiment. GBP/USD moves in TRIANGLES, so from a pure pattern TA perspective, the price is expected complete triangle to 1.9600.

But until clear divergence from 1-2hrs start of UK session, I'm not clicking any trade button...
Trade the reaction, not the news!
  • #62,630
  • Apr 23, 2008 11:45pm Apr 23, 2008 11:45pm
I dont know, but it looks broke to me

Quoting Doose
I dont think the longterm uptrend on the 4H is broken yet. Close but not there yet. Note we at the 61 fib on the uptrend.

I think that the downtrend isnt broken till we take close below 1.9750. And even then their is the bounce off the backside of the downward trend to think about.

Looking at the 1d I see an upward ABC formation and possibly setting up for the D movement.

Fundamentals cud change this I believe.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #62,631
  • Apr 24, 2008 12:01am Apr 24, 2008 12:01am

Well I cant load my charts but it not far from that...my line isnt broken yet thats all....

Guess we cant "count the chickens till the eggs hatch"...

But I not dropping asleep tonite thats all I know....hungry for pips
  • #62,632
  • Apr 24, 2008 12:25am Apr 24, 2008 12:25am
looks to go lower before we go higher ...... I will be more certain soon IMO
  • #62,633
  • Apr 24, 2008 12:46am Apr 24, 2008 12:46am
Quoting hard1head1
I dont know, but it looks broke to me
Shifted outwards slightly?

That's the trouble with all TA - draw enuf lines on a chart, some are bound to be hit (not quite 100 % cynical, some truth)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu.gif Size: 56 KB
Darkness lies one inch ahead..
  • #62,634
  • Apr 24, 2008 12:48am Apr 24, 2008 12:48am
good morning guys
hope u r doing well
Gbp/USD wil find a support above 1,9770. iif the support is broken then the target will be 1,9600 (190 pips)
my view
  • #62,635
  • Apr 24, 2008 12:51am Apr 24, 2008 12:51am
OK, let's say the big downsloping triangle is valid, what do others wait for before entering? What sort of confirmation are people looking for ??
Darkness lies one inch ahead..
  • #62,636
  • Apr 24, 2008 12:55am Apr 24, 2008 12:55am
Quoting warta
Gbp/USD wil find a support above 1,9770. iif the support is broken then the target will be 1,9600 (190 pips)
I have a confluence of support in a 10 pip band:

24 % M1 fib @ 19767
62 % D1 @ 19762
62 % W1 @ 19757.
Darkness lies one inch ahead..
  • #62,637
  • Apr 24, 2008 12:57am Apr 24, 2008 12:57am
Quoting Carrera
Hello everyone.
This pair is moving so nice... wow

Here is something interesting for your analisis and considiration.

Note that the AB=CD formations in progress AB has about the same amount of candle of CD. This is a strong characteristic of this pattern.
Let see....
Interesting Carrera so you see the wedge would you take a target off a wedge top line as long as its not breached??
Cause I have been told there not a reliable pattern.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #62,638
  • Apr 24, 2008 1:07am Apr 24, 2008 1:07am
Ok, we just had a test and quite strong rejection (21 pips) of yesterday's low 19772, so ATM we have an M5 triple bottom, maybe higher TF with time
Darkness lies one inch ahead..
  • #62,639
  • Apr 24, 2008 1:08am Apr 24, 2008 1:08am
Quoting TraderJR
OK, let's say the big downsloping triangle is valid, what do others wait for before entering? What sort of confirmation are people looking for ??
123 top pattern plus
the price open bellow the pivot line , trying to break the last day close and fib S1 and supported by 50 SMA , failed many time once the 1 h candle close bellow 770 we will see 600

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #62,640
  • Apr 24, 2008 1:11am Apr 24, 2008 1:11am
Long term I'm still short. BoE talks of easing rates, very strong resistance @ 2.000.
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